The Month That Was……February 2024

January seemed to last eight years but now it’s March, even though February only started yesterday. Getting to March seems like a big win. Spring feels like such a positive time. The sprouting of better things is all around us and it has afforded me a more productive outlook and reflect on some big wins this month……

- Pancake day was a huge success……essential for any semi-decent parent in charge of a 9 year old. To be fair, I could have served up cardboard (it wasn’t far off) and she would have been happy given the mountains of layered Nutella. Take that Shrove Tuesday.

- Valentines Day came and went without upsetting my wife……mainly because she has adjusted her expectations after 26 years. It’s still a win in my eyes. 

- I discovered the immense benefits of using a 2 metre long phone charging cable in comparison to the standard issue 1 metre. It’s an absolute game changer.

- I still remain the only person in the country to live without an air fryer.

- I went two days in a row without having to reset a password. Definite progress.

- I also went two days in a row without getting a lecture on leaving crumbs in the Lurpak. 

- Finding out that “let’s get some dates in the diary,” is not a stressful diary management exercise……it actually means you can relax as absolutely nothing is going to happen.

- Getting the bin day correct for three straight weeks. Refuse hattrick.

- I refused a mid-morning biscuit……I know, utter madness. Admittedly, I thought about the mindless self-sabotage for the rest of the day but it felt cathartic nonetheless.

- Understanding that aggressive politeness is not only a thing but completely acceptable. However, it is reserved only for those drivers who let you out of a junction before them……but look furious about it.

- I took my politeness to a whole new level. Upon reaching my destination in a taxi, I said (in true British fashion) “anywhere here's fine thanks.” The driver didn’t hear me and by the time I mustered the courage to repeat myself, I’d added a ten minute walk to my journey. I also told him to keep the change. And then I realised it was chucking it down. As you can imagine, I retold the story to anyone who would listen for the next week in a proper rant. But the taxi driver was happy, which is the main thing.

I managed to buy two items in the village shop without saying “just these, please” when I put them on the shop counter. The server looked bemused but we still managed a successful transaction.

I am sure you would agree that it has been an undeniably positive month. It’s what spring is all about.

The Numbers

I know I like a statistic more than the average person but it felt like the numbers were being thrown at me from all angles this month.

2024 is a historic year, with elections in 50 countries for 2 billion voters. The UK may / should have an election this year as it must be held by 28 January 2025. In the most recent poll that asked, “will you vote for Rishi or Keir?” 70% of those questioned responded with ‘neither’. We live in a political wilderness.

All eyes will be on 6^th March Budget……expect Jezza to incentivise / relax the rules on pensions to encourage investment in the UK. There is now £5.7 trillion accumulated in UK pensions, more than the £4.5 trillion of total wealth we hold in properties. Interestingly, the average size of a pension ‘pot’ for 55 – 65 year olds in the UK is just £105,000.  

For the first time, global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an entire year, according to the EU's climate service. Adopted by 194 parties (193 countries plus the EU) in the French capital, the Paris Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 when world leaders pledged to try and prevent global temperatures rising by more than 1.5C. Complete failure and no sign of these ‘leaders’ now?

With no sense of irony, Labour confirmed the same morning that they were scrapping their pledge to invest £28 billion a year (until 2030) into growing a green economy in the UK. Classic timing.

Electric car sales to private buyers fell by 25% this month. The number of zero-emission vehicles as a proportion of all new registrations is just 14.7%, a reflection of the premium price for such cars, poor charging infrastructure in the UK and the flip-flopping of the Government’s green policies. What a mess.

The By-election swing of 28.5% from Tories to Labour in Wellingborough was the second largest swing from Tory to Labour at a By-election since the Second World War.

Microsoft beat Apple’s record market capitalisation and became the largest US public company ever with a value of $3.13 trillion (beating the record set by Apple of $2.92 trillion).

The Office for National Statistics announced that GDP fell by 0.3% in the last period for 2023, meaning we are officially in recession. It was the ‘mildest’ start to a recession since the 1970s. Jezza entered stage right to insist that the economy is “turning a corner.” Really? It doesn’t feel like we have left the last recession.

Inflation stayed at 4%. While 4% might not seem like a big number when we have had 11.1% inflation, it's double the Bank of England's inflation target of 2%. Interestingly, it was the first monthly drop (0.4%) in food prices for 2 years. It was no surprise that UK interest rates were held at 5.25% by the Bank of England, despite the announcement that more than 100,000 mortgage borrowers are in trouble as arrears levels rise.

More than £1 trillion of the UK’s savings is sitting in accounts earning less than 2%, despite a 5.25% base rate. It is clear that UK banks are profiting at the expense of their customers by not passing on higher interest rates in full. In other news, the ‘big four’ (Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest) made collective profits of £41 billion for their last accounting period.

It’s now been over 500 days since formal commencement of the UK Covid Inquiry. Are we actually any clearer on what went on at Government?

My own favourite number of the month……26……years with this one. What a lucky lady!  

Trump of the Month

There were no shortages of entries for the monthly award for lunacy and all are very worthy candidates.

Jezza Hunt informed us that we must “stick to the plan, there are signs the economy is turning a corner” as the UK enters recession. That’s quite a swan song.

Laura Trott got into an argument with presenter Evan Davis about how the Government would stick to its pledge to get debt down whilst also talking about tax cuts. He said official projections showed debt rising. She replied: "It's falling as a percentage of GDP." Her argument that debt is falling when it goes up slightly less fast is the same logic as Rishi implying he’s halved inflation even though it’s still twice as high as it was when he started. The episode exposed the complete economic illiteracy of the Government Treasury Chief Secretary. Very disturbing.

Never far away from putting his foot in his mouth, Rishi made a joke about trans women, while the mother of Brianna Ghey (a trans girl who was murdered), was sat in Parliament watching. Rishi feels very out of touch with reality in the UK. He is a Prime Minster who seems adamant to create World War III to control boats in the Red Sea when he can’t control them in the English channel. I fear history will not be kind to Rishi’s legacy.

Prior to the UK economic announcement, Andrew Bailey (top dog at the Bank of England) said there was “about a 50/50 chance that GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, which would mean that the UK slipped into a recession.” Or to put that another way…..I really don’t know.

Never one to be shy of headlines, The Trump was ordered to pay $354 million in New York for lying to banks to obtain preferential lending terms and $83.3 million for defaming E Jean Carroll. Of course it isn’t his fault and it’s all a political witch hunt to stop him becoming President. He’s appealing. Obviously. Accountability is not something he can entertain.

All worthy considerations but the winner of Trump of the Month for February 2024…… Kwasi Kwarteng.

He made the announcement this month that he has decided not to stand at the next General Election. I naively assumed he didn’t even have the option given that this is the man that crashed the economy, laughed during the Royal Funeral and made mortgages rise for all. His tenure as Chancellor was a dangerous embarrassment that was 38 days of destruction. Imagine, being fired by Liz Truss for incompetence. Could there be a greater disgrace?

He leaves a truly remarkable legacy and I have every faith that his achievement will live on for decades to come. After all, not many people can claim to have wrecked a major economy in under three weeks. Correction, it was half an afternoon's work. Quite some achievement.

Not standing in the General Election? As if.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“There are few things more dangerous than a mixture of power, arrogance and incompetence.”

Bob Herbert

The Month That Was……January 2024

Is it just me or are we stuck in 2016 and going through some kind of sick groundhog experiment?

Apple was / is the biggest company in the world and has released yet another iPhone that looks exactly like the last iPhone but apparently it is so much better because (insert lame reason here). 

In 2016, the UK was governed by incompetent Tories with a leader (David Cameron and then Theresa May) that was so out of touch / arrogant to what those on the ground really needed. Fast forward to 2024……literally nothing has changed.

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in 2016 looked astonishingly poorly thought out and continues to offer little or no economic benefit. We are still scratching our heads at Brexit 8 years later.

The newly formed 2016 Paris Climate Change Agreement was signed by 195 nations vowing to limit any increase in global temperatures. It still promises much, is delivering little and we still question the point of it.  

The world's 62 richest people were as wealthy as half the world's population……and still are.

Train workers and junior doctors in England are still striking over pay and working hours in exactly the same way as 2016.  

The pound is still worth a pittance against the dollar. 

And there is the practical joke of The Trump looking to become POTUS all over again. I know, baffling isn’t it!

It feels like so much has changed over the past 8 years but I am fearing that it is so little in reality.   

The Numbers

It’s that time of the year when ‘expert’ economists iron their cardigans and wax lyrically to anyone that will listen (and force those that don’t) to their opinion on exactly what will happen with the economy this year. Just like every other year, they will get it wrong.

The theme and outlook from these ‘experts’ on the economy is one of ‘flatlining’. The Bank of England’s forecast of 0% growth this year and just 0.25% next is gloomy.

Hopes that the consumer and business cavalries will come to the rescue will be dampened by the fact that much of the effect of the interest rate rises between December 2021 and August 2023 has yet to come through. Just ask those 2 million mortgage holders that have a fixed interest rate coming to an end this year.

The key driver of interest rates is the position of inflation, with popular opinion that inflation is on track to fall below the Bank of England’s target (2%) as soon as April. And to be crystal clear……this is down to a hefty cut to energy bills and not because of anything remotely looking like competency at the Bank of England or Number 10 / 11.

Despite this, inflation crept up to 4.0% from 3.9% this month in a move that was widely predicted. The inflation pattern was similar in the Eurozone (up to 2.9%) and US (up to 3.4%). Inflation clearly doesn’t fall in a straight line!

An interesting side angle on the US and UK launching strikes in Yemen over recent attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea is that this could impact inflation. 15% of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea and delays will see the cost of some goods increase.

The news will be obsessed by interest rate cuts when inflation drops towards the 2% target. Their expectation will be that such an inflation level will allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates sharply from their present level of 5.25% (15 year high), possibly starting as soon as May. We shall see!

A ‘perfect storm’ of higher interest rates, rising costs and downbeat consumer demand has pushed up the number of companies on the brink of bankruptcy by 25.9%. A clear indication that the current state of the economy is biting hard.

Perhaps the most disturbing figures of the month were those associated to the Post Office scandal. £1 billion had been budgeted for compensation payments for more than 900 convictions linked to the scandal over 16 years, with only 93 being overturned so far. Perhaps the most disturbing part of the dreadful story is that it took an ITV serialisation and public outcry for the Government to do the right thing. Is it too much to ask for decent people to lead our country?

My own favourite number of the month……8……the number of miles walking on the North Yorkshire Moors with little legs. 

Trump of the Month

He’s back. You know it, I know it, and worse still, he knows it too. Donald Trump may or may not become the 47th President, but he will dominate the world far more than he should during 2024.

My moral dilemma is how to cover something impartially that is fundamentally awful and bad.

Perhaps I should just stick with the facts rather than the person……but there is a problem with that. Between 2016 and 2020, The Washington Post kept a tally of the “false or misleading claims” The Trump made in office, and came to a total of 30,573. During the first hundred days in office, The Trump’s total was 511……for Joe B it was 78.

 Is it possible, do you think, to see those numbers and still stay calm? Or does one start to sound a little obsessive? Even a little insane?

If you want to understand the sheer lunacy of The Trump, January 2024 offered plenty of examples.

In one 24 hour period, he won the Republican nominee vote in Iowa by the largest margin in history……he then attended court to defend himself against a defamation of character case (brought  by a woman who was awarded $5 million of damages by a jury in a civil case that found The Trump guilty of sexual assault) and then took to social media to defend himself as breakfast TV compared The Trump to Hitler, Mussolini and Saddam Hussein!

Do not let The Trump’s hot air obscure the fact that this man has already been President and that he was a frightening, dangerous one, alarming even to plenty of people who had convinced themselves beforehand that he was on their side.

There could only be one winner of the Trump of the Month for January 2024……The Trump.

I feel my biggest challenge of 2024 will be to try to remain impartial and find an alternative winner each month……I fear I may fail.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Calling it lunacy makes it easier to explain away the things we don't understand”.

Megan Chance

 

The Month That Was……November 2023

It will come as no surprise to anyone that I love living by rules……I work in a heavily regulated environment where rules dictate behaviour……I was a football referee who guided 22 players through 90 minutes by applying rules……and I am an absolute nerd at sticking to those unwritten rules we live by. 

You know the ones……

- Only putting the recycling out on the day of collection.

- Always thanking another driver for letting you through.

- Always asking “sorry, are you in the queue?” whenever there is doubt that you could be pushing in.

- Never, under any circumstances, take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.

- Expecting bills to travel through the post at twice the speed of any refund.

- Accepting that junk is something that is kept for years and then thrown away three weeks before it’s needed.

- Never lick a steak knife.

- Never touch another person’s fries. Ever.

- Always ask for the bill in a restaurant by pretending to write in the air with an invisible pen.  

- When walking upstairs behind a woman, the stairs instantly become the most interesting thing in your life ever.

- If you borrow something for a third time, you need one of your own.

- Buy a plunger before you need a plunger.

Simple and effective unwritten rules that make life all the easier and ones that I absolutely stick to. The problem is, I expect others to live by them as well……and that’s where the problem lies.

Rishi is a great example of someone I find frustrating by not playing by the unwritten rules. 

Example 1: Never employ someone in your cabinet who is simply vile and front page fodder that you will never be able to defend. Yet, Rishi thought Suella Braverman was a good idea.

Example 2: Always choose someone from your political party that has been elected as an MP to sit in your cabinet or it will annoy those elected MPs. Yet Rishi thought it a good idea to ignore 349 elected Conservative MPs and promote David Cameron to Foreign Secretary instead. Hardly a vote of confidence in his elected colleagues! What next…..Pitt the Younger as Chancellor! Thank goodness Farage is in the jungle or Rishi would have made him deputy PM!

To be fair, David Cameron’s return gives hope to everyone that it doesn’t matter how badly you mess up in a job, if you wait around long enough you can always have a second chance. Presumably Liz Truss is watching with interest.

Example 3: Before a cabinet reshuffle, make sure that you don’t end up with egg on your face. Yet Rishi sacked the housing minister the day before key housing reform measures were to be debated in Parliament. Or appointing Victoria Atkins as Health Secretary when her husband is Chief Executive of one of the world’s biggest sugar companies (British Sugar) and you are politically reluctant to take action on obesity and the promotion of unhealthy foods.

Example 4: If you are going to create a new position in your cabinet, make sure that it is credible and will stand the test of time. Yet Rishi created a new position of ‘Common Sense Tsar’. It’s the kind of idea that would be floated, and rejected, by a pupil’s council in a primary school. What on earth was Rishi think?

The Conservatives have invented an unusually large number of new posts over the years. The ‘Minister for Brexit Opportunities’ or the ‘Minister for Levelling Up’ have yet to be really adopted by the public……probably because there is nothing to put your finger on anything they’ve done. Literally.

The biggest common sense failure of the Common Sense Tsar is a very obvious one: if there now needs to be, at the highest levels of Government, a Common Sense Tsar, it brutally suggests that all the other Governmental departments and ministers aren’t using common sense.

The first rule of a genuine Common Sense club would be abolishing something as nonsensical as a Common Sense club and all Tsars it nominates. It’s just … common sense.

Come on Rishi……you are better than this. It’s all about living by the unwritten rules.

The Numbers

Two big announcements dominated the figures this month.

The first came from the Bank of England with their inflation announcement……a sharp fall……down to 4.6%.

It's the lowest rate since November 2021, which was mainly down to lower energy prices. Gas costs are down by 31% in comparison to a year ago, with electricity prices down 15.6%.

UK inflation has been consistently above other G7 economies but is now beginning to fall back in line with peers. Latest estimates show the equivalent headline inflation in the US fell to 3% and it is averaging at 2.9% in the Eurozone.

As you can imagine, there were lots of 'inflation halved' celebrations from politicians. Yet prices are still rising and are well above the Bank of England target.

It's interesting that when there is high inflation due to global factors, such as energy prices, the Tories say it's nothing to do with them. When inflation falls due to global factors, such as energy prices, suddenly this is because of specific measures Rishi has taken. Let’s be really clear on this……rising inflation slowing is not the result of Government as it is down to falling energy prices and sky high interest rates. Neither are controlled by the Government.

The second announcement was Jezza’s Autumn Statement in Parliament against a backdrop of flatlining growth, warnings on inflation and dire opinion polls. It was 51 minutes of political hot air that could have been summarised in 2 minutes. The key headlines included:

- The ‘triple lock’ on State Pension increases was confirmed to be 8.5%. The full State Pension is to increase to £221.20 per week from April 2024, a £900 per year increase.

- The Inflation forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggests it will be 2.8% by end of 2024 and hitting the 2% target in 2025. We shall see.

- The OBR expects negligible economic growth in the run up to the General Election……0.6% this year, 0.7% next year and 1.4% in 2025, which is not exactly a boom. It is obviously good that the economy has avoided recession but we are struggling our way back up to 2%.

- National Insurance was cut from 12% to 10%.

- National Living Wage for over-21s will be increased from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour.

- The government plans to launch a sale of NatWest shares over the next 12 months, as it aims to fully sell its 38.7% stake in the bank by 2026. Expect the queue for buyers to be short.

Interestingly / slyly / connivingly, Jezza ‘forgot’ to mention that less than 24 hours after his speech, Ofgem would be increasing the energy price cap to £1,928, a rise of 5%. Another rise in bills for so many already struggling to pay……yet not a single mention of this increase, insulation or energy efficiency in his speech.

 

Trump of the Month

Ignoring Rishi’s spectacular incompetence with his cabinet reshuffle (deckchairs and titanic come to mind!), there could only be one winner of the Trump of the Month……Suella Braverman.

When I read the headline that Suzy wanted to ban tents, I was all on board with that. Let’s be fair, going camping for a family holiday is only ever going to end in family squabbles and the quick realisation that it isn’t a holiday. Banning camping made a lot of sense and I was quickly all for it.

Reading further though, my support was misguided. The (then) Home Secretary sparked controversy by claiming that rough sleepers were making a “lifestyle choice” and she wanted to ban homeless people from sleeping in tents. Suzy was pushing for powers to restrict the use of tents by homeless people in urban areas, including by making it a civil offence for charities to distribute them.

I always thought lifestyle choices were things such as cargo pants with a matching jumper wrapped loosely over your shoulders, crocheting and decorating your bathroom with a bowl of potpourri.

Homelessness happens when housing policy fails, there is a lack of social homes, sky high private rents, rising evictions and the ongoing cost of living crisis. Poverty is not a lifestyle choice. It is a political choice that she is a part of.

Unlike being homeless, being an evil heartless (insert word of choice) IS a lifestyle choice.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Present fears are less than horrible imaginings.”

William Shakespeare