The Month That Was……February 2024

January seemed to last eight years but now it’s March, even though February only started yesterday. Getting to March seems like a big win. Spring feels like such a positive time. The sprouting of better things is all around us and it has afforded me a more productive outlook and reflect on some big wins this month……

- Pancake day was a huge success……essential for any semi-decent parent in charge of a 9 year old. To be fair, I could have served up cardboard (it wasn’t far off) and she would have been happy given the mountains of layered Nutella. Take that Shrove Tuesday.

- Valentines Day came and went without upsetting my wife……mainly because she has adjusted her expectations after 26 years. It’s still a win in my eyes. 

- I discovered the immense benefits of using a 2 metre long phone charging cable in comparison to the standard issue 1 metre. It’s an absolute game changer.

- I still remain the only person in the country to live without an air fryer.

- I went two days in a row without having to reset a password. Definite progress.

- I also went two days in a row without getting a lecture on leaving crumbs in the Lurpak. 

- Finding out that “let’s get some dates in the diary,” is not a stressful diary management exercise……it actually means you can relax as absolutely nothing is going to happen.

- Getting the bin day correct for three straight weeks. Refuse hattrick.

- I refused a mid-morning biscuit……I know, utter madness. Admittedly, I thought about the mindless self-sabotage for the rest of the day but it felt cathartic nonetheless.

- Understanding that aggressive politeness is not only a thing but completely acceptable. However, it is reserved only for those drivers who let you out of a junction before them……but look furious about it.

- I took my politeness to a whole new level. Upon reaching my destination in a taxi, I said (in true British fashion) “anywhere here's fine thanks.” The driver didn’t hear me and by the time I mustered the courage to repeat myself, I’d added a ten minute walk to my journey. I also told him to keep the change. And then I realised it was chucking it down. As you can imagine, I retold the story to anyone who would listen for the next week in a proper rant. But the taxi driver was happy, which is the main thing.

I managed to buy two items in the village shop without saying “just these, please” when I put them on the shop counter. The server looked bemused but we still managed a successful transaction.

I am sure you would agree that it has been an undeniably positive month. It’s what spring is all about.

The Numbers

I know I like a statistic more than the average person but it felt like the numbers were being thrown at me from all angles this month.

2024 is a historic year, with elections in 50 countries for 2 billion voters. The UK may / should have an election this year as it must be held by 28 January 2025. In the most recent poll that asked, “will you vote for Rishi or Keir?” 70% of those questioned responded with ‘neither’. We live in a political wilderness.

All eyes will be on 6^th March Budget……expect Jezza to incentivise / relax the rules on pensions to encourage investment in the UK. There is now £5.7 trillion accumulated in UK pensions, more than the £4.5 trillion of total wealth we hold in properties. Interestingly, the average size of a pension ‘pot’ for 55 – 65 year olds in the UK is just £105,000.  

For the first time, global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an entire year, according to the EU's climate service. Adopted by 194 parties (193 countries plus the EU) in the French capital, the Paris Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 when world leaders pledged to try and prevent global temperatures rising by more than 1.5C. Complete failure and no sign of these ‘leaders’ now?

With no sense of irony, Labour confirmed the same morning that they were scrapping their pledge to invest £28 billion a year (until 2030) into growing a green economy in the UK. Classic timing.

Electric car sales to private buyers fell by 25% this month. The number of zero-emission vehicles as a proportion of all new registrations is just 14.7%, a reflection of the premium price for such cars, poor charging infrastructure in the UK and the flip-flopping of the Government’s green policies. What a mess.

The By-election swing of 28.5% from Tories to Labour in Wellingborough was the second largest swing from Tory to Labour at a By-election since the Second World War.

Microsoft beat Apple’s record market capitalisation and became the largest US public company ever with a value of $3.13 trillion (beating the record set by Apple of $2.92 trillion).

The Office for National Statistics announced that GDP fell by 0.3% in the last period for 2023, meaning we are officially in recession. It was the ‘mildest’ start to a recession since the 1970s. Jezza entered stage right to insist that the economy is “turning a corner.” Really? It doesn’t feel like we have left the last recession.

Inflation stayed at 4%. While 4% might not seem like a big number when we have had 11.1% inflation, it's double the Bank of England's inflation target of 2%. Interestingly, it was the first monthly drop (0.4%) in food prices for 2 years. It was no surprise that UK interest rates were held at 5.25% by the Bank of England, despite the announcement that more than 100,000 mortgage borrowers are in trouble as arrears levels rise.

More than £1 trillion of the UK’s savings is sitting in accounts earning less than 2%, despite a 5.25% base rate. It is clear that UK banks are profiting at the expense of their customers by not passing on higher interest rates in full. In other news, the ‘big four’ (Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest) made collective profits of £41 billion for their last accounting period.

It’s now been over 500 days since formal commencement of the UK Covid Inquiry. Are we actually any clearer on what went on at Government?

My own favourite number of the month……26……years with this one. What a lucky lady!  

Trump of the Month

There were no shortages of entries for the monthly award for lunacy and all are very worthy candidates.

Jezza Hunt informed us that we must “stick to the plan, there are signs the economy is turning a corner” as the UK enters recession. That’s quite a swan song.

Laura Trott got into an argument with presenter Evan Davis about how the Government would stick to its pledge to get debt down whilst also talking about tax cuts. He said official projections showed debt rising. She replied: "It's falling as a percentage of GDP." Her argument that debt is falling when it goes up slightly less fast is the same logic as Rishi implying he’s halved inflation even though it’s still twice as high as it was when he started. The episode exposed the complete economic illiteracy of the Government Treasury Chief Secretary. Very disturbing.

Never far away from putting his foot in his mouth, Rishi made a joke about trans women, while the mother of Brianna Ghey (a trans girl who was murdered), was sat in Parliament watching. Rishi feels very out of touch with reality in the UK. He is a Prime Minster who seems adamant to create World War III to control boats in the Red Sea when he can’t control them in the English channel. I fear history will not be kind to Rishi’s legacy.

Prior to the UK economic announcement, Andrew Bailey (top dog at the Bank of England) said there was “about a 50/50 chance that GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, which would mean that the UK slipped into a recession.” Or to put that another way…..I really don’t know.

Never one to be shy of headlines, The Trump was ordered to pay $354 million in New York for lying to banks to obtain preferential lending terms and $83.3 million for defaming E Jean Carroll. Of course it isn’t his fault and it’s all a political witch hunt to stop him becoming President. He’s appealing. Obviously. Accountability is not something he can entertain.

All worthy considerations but the winner of Trump of the Month for February 2024…… Kwasi Kwarteng.

He made the announcement this month that he has decided not to stand at the next General Election. I naively assumed he didn’t even have the option given that this is the man that crashed the economy, laughed during the Royal Funeral and made mortgages rise for all. His tenure as Chancellor was a dangerous embarrassment that was 38 days of destruction. Imagine, being fired by Liz Truss for incompetence. Could there be a greater disgrace?

He leaves a truly remarkable legacy and I have every faith that his achievement will live on for decades to come. After all, not many people can claim to have wrecked a major economy in under three weeks. Correction, it was half an afternoon's work. Quite some achievement.

Not standing in the General Election? As if.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“There are few things more dangerous than a mixture of power, arrogance and incompetence.”

Bob Herbert