Is it just me or are we stuck in 2016 and going through some kind of sick groundhog experiment?
Apple was / is the biggest company in the world and has released yet another iPhone that looks exactly like the last iPhone but apparently it is so much better because (insert lame reason here).
In 2016, the UK was governed by incompetent Tories with a leader (David Cameron and then Theresa May) that was so out of touch / arrogant to what those on the ground really needed. Fast forward to 2024……literally nothing has changed.
The UK’s decision to leave the EU in 2016 looked astonishingly poorly thought out and continues to offer little or no economic benefit. We are still scratching our heads at Brexit 8 years later.
The newly formed 2016 Paris Climate Change Agreement was signed by 195 nations vowing to limit any increase in global temperatures. It still promises much, is delivering little and we still question the point of it.
The world's 62 richest people were as wealthy as half the world's population……and still are.
Train workers and junior doctors in England are still striking over pay and working hours in exactly the same way as 2016.
The pound is still worth a pittance against the dollar.
And there is the practical joke of The Trump looking to become POTUS all over again. I know, baffling isn’t it!
It feels like so much has changed over the past 8 years but I am fearing that it is so little in reality.
The Numbers
It’s that time of the year when ‘expert’ economists iron their cardigans and wax lyrically to anyone that will listen (and force those that don’t) to their opinion on exactly what will happen with the economy this year. Just like every other year, they will get it wrong.
The theme and outlook from these ‘experts’ on the economy is one of ‘flatlining’. The Bank of England’s forecast of 0% growth this year and just 0.25% next is gloomy.
Hopes that the consumer and business cavalries will come to the rescue will be dampened by the fact that much of the effect of the interest rate rises between December 2021 and August 2023 has yet to come through. Just ask those 2 million mortgage holders that have a fixed interest rate coming to an end this year.
The key driver of interest rates is the position of inflation, with popular opinion that inflation is on track to fall below the Bank of England’s target (2%) as soon as April. And to be crystal clear……this is down to a hefty cut to energy bills and not because of anything remotely looking like competency at the Bank of England or Number 10 / 11.
Despite this, inflation crept up to 4.0% from 3.9% this month in a move that was widely predicted. The inflation pattern was similar in the Eurozone (up to 2.9%) and US (up to 3.4%). Inflation clearly doesn’t fall in a straight line!
The news will be obsessed by interest rate cuts when inflation drops towards the 2% target. Their expectation will be that such an inflation level will allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates sharply from their present level of 5.25% (15 year high), possibly starting as soon as May. We shall see!
A ‘perfect storm’ of higher interest rates, rising costs and downbeat consumer demand has pushed up the number of companies on the brink of bankruptcy by 25.9%. A clear indication that the current state of the economy is biting hard.
Perhaps the most disturbing figures of the month were those associated to the Post Office scandal. £1 billion had been budgeted for compensation payments for more than 900 convictions linked to the scandal over 16 years, with only 93 being overturned so far. Perhaps the most disturbing part of the dreadful story is that it took an ITV serialisation and public outcry for the Government to do the right thing. Is it too much to ask for decent people to lead our country?
My own favourite number of the month……8……the number of miles walking on the North Yorkshire Moors with little legs.
Trump of the Month
He’s back. You know it, I know it, and worse still, he knows it too. Donald Trump may or may not become the 47th President, but he will dominate the world far more than he should during 2024.
My moral dilemma is how to cover something impartially that is fundamentally awful and bad.
Perhaps I should just stick with the facts rather than the person……but there is a problem with that. Between 2016 and 2020, The Washington Post kept a tally of the “false or misleading claims” The Trump made in office, and came to a total of 30,573. During the first hundred days in office, The Trump’s total was 511……for Joe B it was 78.
Is it possible, do you think, to see those numbers and still stay calm? Or does one start to sound a little obsessive? Even a little insane?
If you want to understand the sheer lunacy of The Trump, January 2024 offered plenty of examples.
In one 24 hour period, he won the Republican nominee vote in Iowa by the largest margin in history……he then attended court to defend himself against a defamation of character case (brought by a woman who was awarded $5 million of damages by a jury in a civil case that found The Trump guilty of sexual assault) and then took to social media to defend himself as breakfast TV compared The Trump to Hitler, Mussolini and Saddam Hussein!
Do not let The Trump’s hot air obscure the fact that this man has already been President and that he was a frightening, dangerous one, alarming even to plenty of people who had convinced themselves beforehand that he was on their side.
I feel my biggest challenge of 2024 will be to try to remain impartial and find an alternative winner each month……I fear I may fail.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Calling it lunacy makes it easier to explain away the things we don't understand”.
Megan Chance
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