The Month That Was……March 2026

Let’s be really clear here……March is a riddle, wrapped in a conundrum, promising lots and offering nothing but contradictions. I like clear rules of the game……yet March simply hasn’t offered that.

Is it heating on or off?

Is it sit outside weather or do I need to defrost the car? Wearing sunglasses and a winter coat at the same time is just way too Italian for my liking.

Is it winter, spring or summer? It’s bright, sunny and quite warm but raining a bit on and off and quite cold when the sun goes in, with a chance of snow overnight. Eh?

Is it light or dark?

Exactly what coat am I meant to wear? It feels like every coat I put on is simply the wrong coat for the weather – too hot, too cold, not waterproof. How am I supposed to live like that? It’s wrong coat season. Dress for the sun……get punished by clouds. Dress for cold……the sun mocks you. The classic optimism trap.

Flowers blooming bravely……then immediately regretting it.

Birds sing like it’s paradise while the wind tries to blow your wheelie bin into the next postcode.

I mean, March doesn’t even know from year to year whether it’s offering Easter or not. What a mess.

My goodness, March hasn’t decided what time it is either. I finish the month with mild jetlag from the time change. 

Honestly, March is just winter and spring fighting in public and I’m stuck in the middle holding a broken umbrella.

March is named after Mars……the Roman god of war. How fitting given that March presented us with the riddle of a war in the Middle East that we are definitely not part of but yet we seem to be, kind of, sort of. 

Enter stage right……April. Thankfully.   

 

The Numbers

The financial fallout from the war in the Middle East is already being keenly felt. For all the efforts to pursue renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. When prices rise, producers are winners, while users are out of pocket.

The Middle East remains the heart of supply, the Strait of Hormuz its main artery. The impact of a de facto blockade and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard.

As customers seek alternative sources to the Middle East, it's the likes of Norway and Canada who may gain. However, it is likely that Russia could be the biggest winner as The Trump relaxes the rules to ease the global supply crunch. Conservative estimates indicate that Russia will earn up to $5 billion during March……its biggest year of fuel-related revenues since 2022.

However, the UK is a buyer not a supplier and the impact will be deep and wide ranging.

Government figures show that the country has less than 900,000 tonnes of petrol in storage, 10% less than a year ago and about 26 days of supply at normal demand levels. The UK has 12 days worth of gas in reserve, which is about 12% of what most countries in the EU hold collectively. The UK simply don’t have reserves of note.

A lack of storage means the UK has to take the increased costs of a restricted supply on the chin. All energy prices are likely to increase and that will put pressure on the cost of living across the board. Inflation is in the post and it won’t be pretty.

The energy subsidy that the Government provided to households after Russia invaded Ukraine cost £40 billion……but that’s unlikely to happen again.

Inflation is now projected to average 4% this year, up from the 2.5% predicted just 3 months ago. It would make it the second-highest rate in the G7 behind the US.

The Bank of England is so concerned that prices are set to rocket that it kept interest rates at 3.75% this month (voting 9-0 in favour), in stark contrast to expectations prior to strikes on Iran that the markets predicted interest rates to be cut 3 – 4 times this year. Andrew Bailey, the Governor, said that the central bank “must respond” if inflation threatens to run out of control because of the increase in oil and gas prices. Borrowers will be hit also as mortgage rates began to rise again.

All of this then leads into the UK facing the biggest hit to economic growth out of the G20 major economies. GDP is now expected to expand by just 0.7% this year (down by 0.5%). This would put the UK second last in the G7 growth table.

Brace yourself……history shows most oil shocks lead to recession and the subject is back in vogue with the ‘experts’ shoehorned into media channels for guru-like opinion (rolls eyes with significantly raised eyebrows). The latest flash Purchase Managers Index (PMI) gives a glimpse into the ‘live’ picture for the UK economy…..with the index falling from 53.9 to 51.2 (anything above 50 is considered economic growth).  

For those of you that don’t have a list of favourite indices, don’t wear a cardigan and matching driving gloves, have a social life and don’t struggle to make meaningful conversation that doesn’t involve a fascination with The Trump……UK economic growth is quickly slowing down already.

(for the record, the PMI really is an outstanding index……it’s in my top 3 and fully justified)

Until we change our stance and attitude to energy resources and storage, economic shocks will continue and we will get hurt in the pocket until it is solved.

Too much bad news and want to get away? The outlook for the travel industry is bleak as a barrel of Jet A1 fuel has risen from $96 to $197 since The Trump flexed his orange muscles.

“Trumpflation” is surely an early contender to be the Oxford University Press 2026 word of the year as it threatens to ravage the UK economy, scupper the Chancellor’s claims of raising living standards and force the Bank of England into interest rate rises this year.

Random numbers of the month……

Since becoming Prime Minister, Keir Starmer has spent a sixth of his time abroad and completed 6 laps of the earth. Keir has visited 44 countries on 37 trips out of the country to attend conferences, bilateral meetings and sports fixtures. During his first 17 months in office, Starmer has spent 2½ months abroad.

Concerning numbers of the month……

A Bank of England Report this month highlighted that there has been a surge in 90% mortgages, triggering negative equity fears. Nearly £22 billion was lent to buyers with a deposit of 10% or less in 2025 (around 7% of all money lent for house purchases). This was a 47% increase on 2024 and 104% more than the amount in 2023. The last time it hit this level was in 2008……also the year of the banking collapse. Anyone else getting a sense of déjà vu?

Favourite number of the month……3……the number of sold out performances of Sister Act completed by the little lady (Sister Mary Patrick in case you were wondering).

Trump of the Month

In any ordinary month, Dax Harkins (head of National Savings & Investments) sacking after NS&I failed to pay out almost £500 million belonging to dead customers would have been a banker for the award.

But this month’s Trump of the Month could only be given to…… Donald John Trump.

The Trump is a bully……and he uses the US’s strength to intimidator people. Let’s be clear……he’s utterly disgraceful. The Trump is basically a real estate operator that has fallen into politics by accident. He doesn’t seem to care about the consequences of any actions as long as he gets his real estate. Just ask Greenland……Venezuela……Gaza……and counting.

And here we are with Iran. Apparently, we were within days of Iran using a nuclear bomb……yet no evidence has been released and his chief security adviser resigned in protest at the lies.

March has seen The Trump reach new heights in contradictions. According to The Trump……

- Iran’s military has been obliterated and they have no missiles left……yet they keep launching.

- The war is pretty much done and will end in a few days……yet we are now in the second month.

- He’ll leave protecting and opening up the Strait of Hormuz to other countries as the US doesn’t need it……yet thousands of US troops are being sent to the area to get shipping restored.

- Iran has agreed to the US 15 point peace plan……yet 2 weeks later the war continues.

The volley of verbal nonsense he offers up is daily and seemingly made up on the hoof. The rest of the world picks up the pieces as he shows little value for the humanitarian impact of his impulses from his golden palace.

What an absolutely disgraceful mess.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Never interrupt your enemy when it’s making a mistake”

Napoleon Bonaparte

The Month That Was……February 2026

Aside from Valentines Day (another disappointing but predictable showing), the 11 year old complaint of burnt pancakes (we are giving up pancakes for Lent next year) and being absolutely shocked that the days are getting longer (including the daily offering of “can’t believe how light it is at 5 o’clock), February offered the quadrennial spectacle of the truly bizarre Winter Olympics.

The closest most of us Brits get to a winter sport is de-icing the car or putting the bins out in the rain, so it is of little surprise that the Winter Olympic sports look like they’ve come from another planet.

As someone who can slip over on a wet pavement (actually, on a dry pavement as well) I have tremendous admiration and respect for those taking part in the winter Olympics as I could never be brave enough to even attempt half the sport on offer.

But with little or no warning, I was suddenly invested in a British man going 80mph on a tea tray with his chin an inch from the ice run suddenly winning gold.

As you would expect, post-race analysis in my household was thorough:

- How do you even find out that you are good at it?

- It felt like we were watching several thousand identically dressed people doing exactly the same thing one after another. Not a sport with much in the way of variety.

- Having located the sledge and duct-tape, how are me and my 11 year old going to get some decent practice in for France 2030 if we live in a constant monsoon?

And then before you could acknowledge another medal in the curling (bowls on ice), it was all over and back to complaining about the weather.

Bizarre as it is, it was fun while it lasted.

The Numbers

Aside from The Trump’s latest war on……(take your pick……he lurches from one battle to another like a toddler in a toy shop), the only story in town was the legality of the tariffs the orange one imposed last year.

The Supreme Court’s majority ruling of 6-3 found that The Trump did not provide legal justification for most of the sweeping tariffs he had announced on returning to the White House.

The 145% tariff on Chinese goods or 25% on Canada was not legal under the 1974 Trade Act that allows a tariff of up to 15% (The Trump has gone for 10% across the board) that expires after 150 days without congressional approval.

The Trump acting in illegal ways? Who’d have thought it!

The court ruling means that more than $175 billion in US tariff revenues are at risk of now having to be refunded. So The Trump increased tariffs across the board to 15% to offset this (the maximum permitted level) and this can remain legally in place for 150 days. He’ll make it up from there when that expires!

The Trump has called tariffs his “favourite word in the dictionary” but they are not popular with Americans, with 6 out of 10 believing that The Trump has gone too far. Interestingly, Americans paid 86% of the total cost of tariffs in November through increased prices offsetting the increased tariff.

Perhaps the big story in all of this is the fact that a court of 9 justices, 6 appointed by Republican Presidents and 3 of them by The Trump himself ruled against the President……going completely against the narrative that The Trump can just do as he pleases. Interesting times!

Closer to home……

There were some nuggets of information in the latest monthly dump of economic data from the Office for National Statistics …… with the labour market report the most alarming.

Unemployment rose to a 5 year high of 5.2% and youth joblessness increased to its highest level in 10 years (even including the pandemic). Private sector wages rose at the slowest pace in nearly 6 years and job vacancies extended a run of decline that stretches back to the spring of 2022. Little surprise that UK inflation fell sharply to 3% and likely to fall further.

Whilst many think the labour market is going through a natural cooling down period after running hot in the 2 years after the pandemic, it is clear that policy choices by this Government have made matters much worse.

Lower inflation, sluggish economic growth and the rise in unemployment have raised expectations in financial markets that the Bank of England will lower interest rates to 3.5% (from 3.75%) at its next meeting on 19^th March……this is on the back of interest rates being lowered 4 times in 2025.

All eyes now on the Spring Statement in March as Rachel Reeves tries to spin the positives out of the current public finance mess.

And my favourite number of the month was……28……the number of years sharing life with this one!

Trump of the Month

There was only one circus in town this month. The Trump of the Month for February 2026 could only be……Andrew Albert Christian Edward Mountbatten‑Windsor.

Of all the things to be arrested for, misconduct in a public office wasn’t on my bingo card.

What a disgraceful mess.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“If you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.”

Wayne Dyer

The Month That Was……January 2026

Well, that’s January done and dusted. A month that offers subzero conditions, slipping us into pessimism and dread. Let’s be honest, as a nation, we are not particularly good at coping with cold snaps. My daughter’s godparents live in Canada and they don’t even start a conversation about the weather until there is a 6-foot dump of snow overnight and its -40C (without the windchill). Not even a shrug of the shoulders.

Whereas the prospect of a light dusting of snow gives our entire transport infrastructure a nervous breakdown and affords us the exciting opportunity of talking about the weather and finding creative ways of telling friends, acquaintances and strangers that it is cold today and may be cold tomorrow.

But it’s not all bad……in fact there’s something about a sustained period of wintry weather that can bring small pleasures that only winter offers. When the mercury drops we can do things that we wouldn’t normally do……cheap but satisfying thrills. For example …

- Being able to look out of the window and loudly proclaim: “Oooh, this is real [insert whatever heroically calorific hot pudding you feel like eating] weather!”

- Confusing children by telling them that it’s “too cold to snow’ (obviously refusing to elaborate on how this is even possible) or informing them that it “smells like snow” like some mystic Wim Hof (rather than a sad middle aged man who watched the weather forecast).

- The continual consumption of hot toddies. Beginnings of a cold? Hot toddy. Stubbed toe? Hot toddy. Footie team getting beat (again)? Hot toddy.

- Hot baths daily…..maybe even multiple times a day. Like a modern day Cadbury’s Flake advert woman. If you phone a client during working hours and there’s a particularly echoey, aquatic tone to the line, you absolutely know not to suggest switching to a videocall.

- Having a watertight and legally unassailable excuse not to do any gardening or clean the car. Once you have witnesses within earshot, sigh, shake your head and say, “I was really hoping to sort the garden and cars out but now …” and gesture sadly at the winter wonderland outside.

- Saying, “Oh, I guess it’s me that needs to defrost the car again,” before a family outing……then simply sitting in the front with the heaters on, listening to the radio for ten minutes while everybody else faffs around trying to find hats and gloves. It’s the most Zen experience available in January.

- Feeling completely liberated by not making any effort whatsoever with your hair due to the joys afforded by woolly hat coverups.

- Expertly advising anybody driving the car you’re travelling in to “steer into the skid, not against it” should you encounter ice……as if you even know what that means.

- Spotting dog dirt a mile off on snowy days, allowing you to walk down the pavement with all the grace and solemn poise of a Princess on her wedding day.

As you can see, January always offers far more than it gets credit for. It’s an underrated gem.

The Numbers

It is clear that the big challenge for 2026 for this Government will be how it nurtures the economy. It will be a defining year.

Economics and the economy affect us all……“it’s the ordinary business of life” as the great British economist Alfred Marshall noted.

It is not just for investors, or businesses or Governments. It defines whether we feel better off or not, whether we can have fulfilling jobs and whether we can enjoy good public services without paying too much in tax to fund them.

The state of play on key economic data always informs our position perfectly.

Growth: This is measured by the rise over a given period in gross domestic product (GDP) and is the broadest measure of economic activity, adjusted for inflation. The average GDP growth between 1945 and 2008 (when the financial crisis struck) was a healthy 2.8% per cent. The average annual growth since then has been 1%. The UK has suffered weak growth for years and this has to be the focus for the Government that has seen GDP stall after 6 consecutive increases.

Productivity: This key economic concept reflects how much we produce or “add value”, for what we put in. It is measured by GDP per worker. Many of the UK’s current problems can be put down to the fact that, after growing by 2% a year for many decades, productivity has stalled for more than 15 years. If it had continued on its previous path, every one of us would be thousands of pounds a year better off. Increasing productivity is another key challenge for this Government.

Inflation: The rate of change of prices now has the greatest significance for the public. 2% is the inflation target that the Bank of England is required to meet, which it controls by varying interest rates.

Yet inflation is running hot at the moment as it increased to 3.4% this month (food inflation climbed to 4.5%). When Labour took office in July 2024 inflation was 2.2%.

Unemployment: This is still a hot political and economic issue. People who are unemployed are available for work, while the economically inactive are not (the long-term sick, early retirees, carers, those in full-time education). The unemployment rate is 5.1% but the inactivity rate is 21%. That’s 1.8 million versus 9.1 million, which has risen sharply since the pandemic. The inactivity rate causes all sorts of economic issues and is a conundrum that needs rebalancing.

Budget Deficit / Government Debt: This deficit is the difference between Government spending and revenues……our national outgoings and income. Rachel Reeves is committed to eliminating the current budget deficit by 2030. UK Government Debt is the accumulated value of the budget deficits over the years. It is currently £2.9 trillion (£2,900 billion) and it is now of concern because it has risen more sharply than in other advanced economies over the past 20 years. Oh, and because of the interest that’s paid on it……currently more than £100 billion.

The cocktail of economic issues isn’t new to Government and it can’t be ignored. The decisions and actions it takes in 2026 will define our economy for the remainder of the decade.

When you consider all of this, it was of little surprise that our PM visited China this month for political and economic flirting. Follow the money.

It was the first Prime Minister visit to China since Theresa May in 2018, with the trip designed to highlight the strength of UK firms in finance, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, clean energy and car making.

The biggest commercial announcement came from AstraZeneca, which promised to invest £11 billion in China over the next four years to expand research and medicine manufacturing. China also agreed to halve tariffs on Scotch whisky in a deal that could generate £250 million for the UK economy over the next 5 years.

A good start but more economic ties are needed with the second largest economy in the world. However, this requires a delicate diplomatic balancing act. The Trump recently warned that Canada could face 100% tariffs over deals struck with China during Mark Carney's visit and he has warned the UK about deepening its commercial ties with Beijing. Classic Trump.

Random figures of the month…… it was announced that Nigel Farage is the highest earning MP in the Commons and has brought in almost £1.4 million in outside income since the General Election. However, Farage was found to have breached parliamentary rules 17 times by failing to declare almost £400,000 of income within the required 28-day deadline. Apparently, it’s because he “doesn’t do computers”. Yeah, good one.

And my favourite number of the month was……-3……the temperature when my favourite netballer took to the track for a fitness session!

Trump of the Month

Let’s cut to the chase here as I am not going to insult anyone that there was a worthy alternative. The Trump of the Month for January 2026 could only be……Donald John Trump.

The lunacy on offer this month was outstanding and at an impressive level.

The tasty amuse-bouche was The Trump’s removal of Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela by abducting him from Caracas. Don’t be blinded by the red herring excuse about it being due to the drugs arriving in the US from Venezuela……the real story is the country having the biggest untapped oil reserves in the world but sanctions and mismanagement have left it in the ground. Nothing arouses a Yank like the sweet smell of oil.

He then moved on to suing JPMorgan for $5 billion for allegedly stopping doing business with him for political reasons. I can think of plenty of moral reasons why I wouldn’t want to have too much of an association with The Trump……politics probably wouldn’t even appear on the list.

And just to make sure JPMorgan got the message, The Trump has demanded a one year cap of 10% on credit card interest rates across all banks.

His attention then moved to Greenland as he decided he wanted it and refused to rule out taking the country by force. The Trump then pinned the blame for his aggressive territorial claims on Norway, accusing it in a text message to its PM of failing to ensure he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

I am pretty sure that abducting the head of Venezuela and threatening taking a country by force is outside of the criteria for the Nobel Peace Prize……but maybe it’s just me.

And then in a further show of craziness, The Trump set up the ‘Board of Peace’ which has a specific 2 year mandate from the UN security council to manage postwar Gaza. However, its official charter makes no reference to the territory!

In essence, it’s 19 countries who have put their names to the founding charter, most of which are close ties to Trump and want to demonstrate their loyalty to him. It’s a political mates club.

What a time to be alive!

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.”

William Shakespeare

The Month That Was……November 2025

This month’s Budget from Rachel Reeves was a stark reminder of how far-reaching the aftermath of the 2022 mini-budget truly was (you remember……the 49 day Liz Truss experiment).

Since that farcical period, every Budget has had to be carefully trialled, tested and market-proofed in advance. Not because Government has suddenly discovered a love of complete transparency……but because the alternative was truly exposed by Liz Truss. Uncosted and untested announcements can send markets spiralling, damage confidence and leave long-lasting scars on the economy.

Whatever one’s politics, the legacy of the Truss Budget is clear. It fundamentally changed how future Chancellor’s approach economic policymaking. This month’s Budget was all about a Government taking no chances……briefing, signalling and reassuring well before stepping up to the dispatch box. And then for good measure, making sure any significant changes are kicked down the road to retain the status quo in the meantime.

Why?

Answer 1: The UK Government plans to borrow around £304 billion through gilt issuance (bonds to you and I) in this tax year……the second highest on record. The more untrustworthy / radical Rachel Reeves appeared in the Budget, the more the bond market would react negatively and the cost to borrow £304 billion would go up……which creates a further black hole……which creates the need for more tax rises.

Never underestimate the power of the bond market. It cost Liz Truss her job……The Trump had to loosen his hard stance in April on his Tariff whirlwind. Bond markets have licence to kill bad choices.

So all eyes were on the bond market response to the Budget……the reaction……the biggest reduction in the cost of borrowing on the bond market on Budget day for 20 years. Or to put that another way……the bond market liked it.

Answer 2: And now for the cherry on the Reeves cake……this almost certainly saved her job at a time when the backbenchers were lining up with stones to throw.  

Politics and personal gain before the greater need of the country. I was hoping for more but got what I expected. 

The Numbers

The last time there was this much speculation about which taxes will go up in a Budget was, well, last year’s Budget. To have two major tax-raising events within the first 18 months of a new Government is unprecedented and it tells us something important: Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget didn’t do the job.

So why the sense of constant crisis? It is almost entirely self-inflicted, thanks to the Chancellor’s decision to meet her crucial fiscal rules by such a narrow margin. It is like setting off on a 100 mile journey with only 102 miles worth of fuel in the tank. When the buffer against unexpected shocks is so small, every minor change in the forecasts sparks speculation about another round of tax rises to get back in the black. This is a cycle that is presently on repeat every six months.

By establishing meaningful fiscal headroom there is a clear path to ending the cycle of speculation and instability, but it will take political bravery and a clear story about the gain that will come from the pain. Policial bravery is not what this Government is about though.

Instead there was a ‘smorgasbord’ of announcements:

- Income tax thresholds have been frozen for another 3 years until 2030 / 2031, which will push more than 1 million extra people into higher rates of income tax as wages rise.

- An increase in the national living wage of 4.1% to £12.71 an hour has been confirmed. The national minimum wage rate for those aged 18 to 20 will increase by 8.5% to £10.85 an hour.

- Pension contributions made through salary sacrifice schemes above an annual £2,000 threshold will no longer be free of national insurance contributions from April 2029. The measure is expected to raise £4.7 billion in 2029 / 2030.

- An annual surcharge will be applied to homes valued at more than £2 million from April 2028. The measure is expected to raise £400 million in 2029 / 2030.

- The two-child benefit cap has been scrapped from 2026. The measure is expected to cost £2.3 billion in 2026 / 2027.

- Green levies will be removed from energy bills from next year until 2029, expected to cost about £2.3 billion.

- The amount of money that can be saved tax free each year in a Cash ISA has been cut to £12,000 from April 2027 (currently £20,000). Those aged over 65 will retain the full cash allowance.

- Tax rates on dividends, property and savings income will be increased by 2%, raising £2.1 billion by 2029 / 2030.

- Tax rates for 750,000 retail and leisure properties will reduce, set to be paid for by an increase in rates on properties worth £500,000 or more. The measures will reduce tax receipts by £1.2 billion on average each year.

- Electric vehicle drivers will be charged 3p per mile on top of other road taxes from 2028 / 2029. The average driver of a battery electric car driving 8,500 miles is therefore expected to be charged £255 a year.

- Rail fares have been frozen for a year, promising to save commuters on the more expensive routes more than £300 per year,

- Alcohol duty will rise in line with retail price inflation from February and a flat-rate excise duty of £2.20 per 10ml on all vaping liquid will come into effect from October 2026.

Elsewhere, away from the ‘fun’ of the Budget……

The Trump has decided to sue the BBC for between £1 billion and £5 billion (he hasn’t decided yet) for false editing of his speech prior to the Capitol riots. “I think I have to do it,” Trump added during his most recent interview, unwittingly using the same tone a toddler does when it corners the family dog and says firmly, “I’ve got to prod its eyes.”

86% of the licence fee we pay goes directly into funding BBC……can you imagine a scenario that we have to pay a higher licence fee to cover the cost of the compensation to The Trump!

And my favourite number of the month was……7……games in a row unbeaten and the first medal of the season for my favourite netballer!

Trump of the Month

There could only be one winner this month……Rachel Jane Reeves.

Leaking the Budget announcements before the actual speech was crazy on every level. Consider that Hugh Dalton resigned as Chancellor in 1947 after leaking just one line of his Budget to a journalist.

However, when you put your own job before the greater need and good of the country, you lose all credibility. Most of the significant changes are to come in 2 – 3 years to safeguard her political future in the meantime. 

If a Government with a majority as big as this one isn’t brave enough to try something that will drive growth with the tax system, I don’t know when we will see it. Shameful stuff.  

Which leads me on to the Peter Principle.

It is a management theory that states: in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to their level of incompetence. In other words, people are promoted based on success in their current role until they reach a position where their skills no longer match the job requirement and they stop advancing.

We saw it with Liz Truss. We are now seeing it with Rachel Reeves. They rose to their level of incompetence in view of us all.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Good followers do not become good leaders.”

Laurence J. Peter

The Month That Was……October 2025

There are about 8 billion people in the world. To add to the drama, that’s 8,000,000,000. If an event has a one-in-a-million chance of occurring every day, it should happen to 8,000 people a day……or 2.9 million times a year……or 250,000,000 times during your lifetime.

That’s the maths of it. 

Even a one-in-a-billion event will become the fate of hundreds of thousands of people during your lifetime. And given the news media’s insatiable appetite for shocking headlines, the odds are nearly 100% that you will hear about these events when they happen. Probably within seconds. 

In a normal person’s life, miracles should occur at the rate of about one per month. The basic law of maths dictates this.

The idea that incredible things happen because of boring maths statistics is important because it’s the same for terrible things too. Think about ‘one hundred year’ events……floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, financial crises, frauds, pandemics, political meltdowns, economic recessions, etc. 

A ‘one hundred year’ event doesn’t mean it happens every one hundred years……it means there is a 1% chance of it occurring in any given year. That seems low……but when there are hundreds of different independent ‘one hundred year’ events. What are the odds that one of them will occur in a given year? Actually, pretty damn good.

But it’s always been like that.

The difference now is the size of the global economy……as this increases the size of potential crazy things that might happen increases. When 8 billion people interact, the odds of a fraudster, a genius, a terrorist, an idiot, an expert or a visionary moving the needle in a significant way on any given day is nearly guaranteed.

And then throw in the other major difference……the immediacy of news. News used to be far harder to disseminate over distances and what was going on in other parts of the world wasn’t always a top concern. Now the news gives us every last detail of every nation, culture, political regime and economy in the world……within seconds.  

There are so many good things that come from that. But we shouldn’t be surprised if the world feels historically broken in recent years and will continue that way going forwards.

That’s a very long winded way of saying, the world isn’t broken. It’s always been this way. We just now see more of the bad / crazy stuff that’s always happened because the world is more connected now.

So the next time a world leader suggests drinking bleach is a good way to get rid of a pandemic, remember that craziness in world leaders has always been there……we now just watch it live.

I do love a number.

 

The Numbers

It’s been a month of mild chaos, medium outrage and maximum disbelief. October arrived like a soggy biscuit……unexpectedly limp but somehow still capable of causing a choking hazard.

The choking hazard in this case is the impending Budget. Rachel Reeves will play the economic game of Jenga……remove one tax-block, add another spending-block, the tower wobbles and you hope the whole thing doesn’t collapse mid-session.

Running out of ideas as to who she can blame for the fiscal mess, Reeves has hauled out the B-word. Nearly a decade after the referendum, she told the IMF that our economic and productivity failures are connected to “the way in which the UK left the European Union”.

Brexit is the villain, not the immigration wave, savage lockdowns, stubborn MPs turning down deals or the Trussonomics earth tremor. Reeves certainly doesn’t blame the damage her own 2024 Budget did to business or Keir’s panicked U-turn over welfare cuts. Big, bad Brexit carries the can……because that’s Troy territory.

Regardless of the ‘latest’ reason, the figures before the Budget look dreadful.

The most recent monthly figures highlighted that the Government borrowed £20.2 billion, the highest comparable in 5 years. In the last 6 months, the deficit hit £100 billion.

As a consequence, the monthly interest payments hit £9.7 billion, £3.9 billion more than a year before.

The message is pretty clear……the cost of financing the Government’s debt is eating into the Budget, leaving less room for discretionary spending or fancy policy experiments. All eyes are now on the 26^th November at 12:30pm.

There is no doubt that the economic / political uncertainty is now filtering into the housing market. Sales of new build homes have sunk to lows not seen since the global financial crisis more than 15 years ago (even lower than sales registered during the pandemic).

An average of 0.3 homes are being sold weekly per outlet (a standard industry metric) across the UK. The equivalent average sales rate reported by the big housebuilders at the bottom of the market in 2007-8 was 0.4 sales per outlet per week and the long-term norm in the 2010’s was about 0.7.

The plunge in sales this summer makes it hard to see how the Government can reach its target to deliver 1.5 million homes in England over the five years to March 2029.

The most bizarre story this month was linked to a unit tasked with investigating more than £1 billion of suspected fraud on taxpayer-backed pandemic business loans. The National Investigation Service (Natis) received £38.5 million from taxpayers to investigate widespread abuse of the bounce-back loan scheme……but an investigation by state auditors highlighted they were only able to verify £7.2 million of recoveries “directly attributed to active investigations by Natis”.

So let me get this right……we paid £38.5 million to recover £7.2 million. Oh, so that’s why the Natis unit was closed so abruptly! You could laugh if it wasn’t so close to home!

According to official estimates, at least £1.9 billion of pandemic loans have been flagged as suspected fraud, most of which is on the £47 billion bounce-back loan programme. Although banks provided the credit, the debt was underwritten by a 100% state guarantee.

The other most bizarre story of the month centred on Amazon causing an outage on its web services (AWS). In short, the world’s largest cloud computing system hit more than 1,000 websites and apps. A pretty big deal when you consider that this included NHS services, Government Gateway and HM Revenue & Customs (in addition to a huge part of the banking sector).

In recent years UK regulators have turned their attention to AWS, which commands around 40% of the UK cloud market. Perhaps Jeff Bezos is a bigger deal than just delivering the latest book of choice.

Despite the gloom, there are some flickers of light in the fog……but you have to go searching. A recent survey (the purchasing-managers index……in my top 5 of all indices) suggested a modest uptick in business growth (from 50.0 to 51.1). In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the UK will be the second-fastest-growing G7 economy in 2025. Impressive……well,  until you zoom out and realise that being second fastest in a slow race still means you’re not exactly lapping anyone.

The Trump v China trade wars reached a new level. China tightened export controls around rare earths, so that, from 1^st November, foreign companies will need the Chinese Government’s approval to export products with even small amounts of rare earths.

Rare earths are used in MRI machines, petrol, diesel and electric vehicles, smartphones, computers and in the defence sector (F-35 fighter jets, submarines and radar systems).

China mines about 70% of the world’s rare earths and refines about 90%, creating a stranglehold on supply.

In response, The Trump imposed a (insert the latest made up figure) % increase in trade tariffs on China. Mainly because he can (that’s what he does) but also out of fear of China strangling the world of rare earths. This story will rumble on as a truce has apparently been reached……or not reached….depending on the direction of the wind.

Elsewhere, Tesla boss Elon Musk has become the first person ever to achieve a net worth of more than $500 billion (a half-trillionaire)……further cementing his status as the world's richest person (Larry Ellison is the world's second richest person with a fortune of about $350 billion).

We seem to talk about ‘billions’ without any real context for the scale. It’s almost a mythical number. This may help for context……

A billion seconds ago……it was 1960.

A billion minutes ago……Jesus was alive.

A billion hours ago……our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

And my favourite number of the month was……31……for all sorts of spooky reasons.

Trump of the Month

A month of many options, given the rich abundance of madness before us.

Candidate #1: Robert Edward Jenrick

Bobby has caused quite a few ripples this month with his comments on a visit to Birmingham. The Tory MP was shocked by the poor housing conditions……“I went to Handsworth in Birmingham and it was absolutely appalling. It’s as close as I’ve come to a slum in this country and I didn’t see another white face.” For context, Bobby owns two £2 million homes in London and a £1 million manor house in Herefordshire.

Exactly what does the colour of skin have to do with housing conditions? Is the “slum’ not the result of his party’s 14 years in power? Absolutely crazy.

Candidate #2: Edward Samuel Miliband

A record £1 billion has been spent this year to switch off wind turbines because of flaws in the UK’s drive for net zero.

To emphasise the madness……in a single day (1^st October) Britain’s electricity operator paid wind farm operators £1.3 million in compensation for lost revenue after ordering them to switch off turbines to avoid overloading the grid. At the same time the grid operator was forced to pay £4.9 million to buy energy from abroad and switch on more expensive gas power generation to meet demand. The total amount of lost energy was enough to power the whole of London for a day.

Who is responsible for this mess……the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero……lead by Ed Miliband…..who is nowhere to be seen on this topic.

We shouldn’t be surprised, Miliband and madness go hand in hand.

Candidate #3: Keir Rodney Starmer

Lindsay Whittle, for Plaid Cymru, won the Caerphilly by-election with more than 47% of the vote. It marked Labour’s first defeat in the area for 100 years as they secured 11% of the vote……with Reform coming second with 36%. 100 years!

Nigel Farage said next year’s Welsh elections would be a “two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru”. It is hard not to agree (through gritted teeth!).

It was a remarkably bad performance by Labour on what has been regarded as one of their safest seats. Even long-standing dominance is not safe when the party leader has an approval rating of just 21%.

Keir was "deeply disappointed" and “clearly we need to do much more." Which begs the question……why aren’t you? Utter madness.

Some very worthy performances for Trump of the Month……but it had to absolutely go to Candidate #4: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

Bojo appeared in the latest instalment of the Covid Inquiry (£160 million of public money spent so far……and counting) with all the charm of a damp sock and about as welcome as a mosquito at a nudist beach (apparently…….so I’ve been told).

Amongst the usual guff, stuttering and smoke screens, BoJo’s testimony did acknowledge mistakes but he defended his decisions over school closures and exam chaos. He admitted children paid a “huge price” during the pandemic and he “under-estimated the scale and pace of the challenge”. No kidding.

Interestingly, the inquiry highlighted missing messages……5,000 WhatsApp messages from critical early months were reportedly missing from BoJo’s phone……which he denied removing as it was a “phone issue” ……adding a farcical dimension to the inquiry proceedings.

He also claimed he was “bamboozled by the graphs” and struggled to get his head around statistical briefings.

Documents shown to the inquiry revealed he allegedly asked whether people could kill Covid by “blowing a hair-dryer up their nose” after he watched a YouTube video.

Internal documents also show a comment of “why are we destroying everything for people who will die anyway soon?” and “Covid is just nature’s way of dealing with old people.” Wow.

The tone of his testimony was part contrition, part deflection and part performance……with an agricultural sized dollop of craziness thrown in.

The two main criticisms of BoJo are that he is a) dishonest and b) lazy. It was arguably uncharacteristically diligent of him to have provided such clear evidence of both within the first 30 seconds of the inquiry.

How on earth did we endure BoJo as Prime Minister for 3 years?

Perhaps we are the mad ones. 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”

Groucho Marx