Who knows who will be Prime Minister by the time you read this but, as I write, the chances of it being Keir Starmer seem to be lessening by the minute. Even if Starmer limps on through this, it seems likely that his days are numbered. We appear dangerously near an accidental leadership contest.
New Prime Minister fever is reaching fever
pitch. At some point soon it seems like the UK will (very wearily) welcome Prime
Minister number seven in 10 years. SEVEN!
In under 2 years the electorate has
fast-forwarded through the full range of feelings you can have for a
politician: admiration, hope, disappointment, disdain, rage and ending
irretrievably in scorn. By some polling metrics, Starmer is the most unpopular
PM ever. The results of local elections tell the same story.
No politician has ever disappointed me more.
But if Starmer goes and the new Labour leader loses in 2028 (as they surely
will), that will make eight PMs since 2015. If nothing feels solid and if every
manifesto promise is provisional, then people pop up as PM who you never
imagined in the role. Who can you trust? How can you plan?
The irony is that our Prime Ministers are being
deposed because of problems……the economy, welfare, housing, et al……which stems
from our high turnover of Prime Ministers! Changing leaders has become the
disease of which it purports to be the cure.
Politics is reduced to theatre. People detach
from all sense of nation and disconnect from democracy. The cost of this
forever-drama runs deep.
Keir’s response to all of this? To steady the
ship by announcing that former Labour royalty, Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman,
are to take advisory roles to the Prime Minister. Deck chairs being rearranged
on the Titanic springs to mind.
Billy Connolly once joked that there is no
situation so bad that it cannot be made worse by country music. The political
equivalent is sending Starmer out to give an interview or speech. Keir Starmer
is hapless, delusional and losing his dignity.
One thing is clear……Starmer’s future is no
longer in his own hands.
UK politics has become all too good at
entertainment but very bad at truth telling. At some point, those around the Prime
Minister (current or new addition) need to put the gun down and start to fix
things in what little time they have left. It will make for a less exciting
story, but it’s the only one with the chance of a decent ending.
Extraordinary stuff.
The Numbers
May was dominated by the local elections in
England, which cover more than 5,000 seats across 136 local
authorities and 6 mayoral races.
The current political storm at Westminster was
caused by Labour’s poor showing…….only 1,068 councillors elected (a
reduction of 1,498) and only 28 labour councils controlled (a
reduction of 40). Unsurprising that Labour has an internal party crisis
as a consequence.
There are 403 Labour MPs in the UK House
of Commons……the highest of any political party since 2001. Crossing the 400‑seat
mark is extremely rare in UK politics and has occurred only 3 times
since 1945. Even peak Thatcher only achieved 397 in 1987.
Which makes it truly remarkable that the number
one candidate to takeover leadership of the Labour party isn’t even a current
MP. What does that say about the 403?
Just as remarkable is that we now have a fourth
significant political party……Reform gained 1,452 councillors and 14
councils. Ignore Nigel Paul Farage at your peril.
A few years ago, the UK was spending £60
billion a year on public debt interest. It’s now £110 billion and
rising. As the UK political situation appears unstable to the outside world,
the cost of the debt goes up as the UK is seen as a riskier borrower. Or to put
that another way……there is a ‘moron premium’ to pay on the bond market by the
Government.
The cost of a 10-year gilt increased to 5.18%,
the highest level since 2008. The cost on a 30-year bond, increased to 5.86%
the highest level ever recorded.
For context, this is above Liz Truss levels. For
further context, every 1% rise costs about £16 billion to the
public coffers. This isn’t due to a defect of Starmer’s personality or a lack
of ambition……it is an unintended consequence of ineffective politics leading to
a fiscal reality (the moron premium).
And here we are now. The bond market refuses to
appreciate that because Andy Burnham fixed the buses in Manchester, that
qualifies him as definitely being able to handle a bit of hullabaloo in Hormuz.
Another measure of the risks of the UK is the
strength of the pound. Sterling dropped to a 5-week low against the
dollar, at $1.33. With the dollar used as the default currency on most
imports purchased, goods and services will now cost the UK more. Brilliant.
UK inflation eased by more than expected to 2.8%,
led by a reduction in the household energy price cap. This suggests the impact
of the Iran war has not yet hit UK households as much as feared. But as the
Bank of England warned, inflation is in the post.
I had the displeasure of ordering a tall (i.e.
smallest size) black coffee at Starbucks this month……£4.05. But don’t
worry, inflation numbers are down apparently (rolls eyes in disgust).
Elsewhere……US jobs data beat expectations for the
second month in a row with 115,000 jobs created as businesses kept
hiring despite the economic fallout from the war in Iran. The increase was
stronger than expected……almost double what economists had forecast.
Surprising number of the month……
£27……the average spend on “just popping
into Tesco for milk”.
Geeky number of the month……
7,314……the number of words in the Apple
iCloud terms of service agreement. For context, the US Constitution is 7,591
words.
“Tell me you’re getting old without telling me
you’re getting old” numbers of the month……
The Chelsea Flower Show had 145,000 visitors,
390 horticultural exhibits filling the 20‑acre
site. 30 gardens, 79 growers / nurseries created 83 floral
exhibits and 40 new plants launched (one inspired by David Beckham).
Favourite number of the month……
13……exams in 8 days for the
academic one.
Trump of the Month
It appears the warm weather has sent more than
a few a little doolally.
Just what was the Secretary of State for
Education thinking in taking such an uninspiring individual who struggles to
construct sentences without slang, inuendo and abbreviations? I mean, she
didn’t include subtitles for those not down with the kids! Read the room
Bridget. Trump Lunacy Rating: 6/10
According to Farage it is all a
misunderstanding as the money is to pay for his security and “ensure I can be
safe for the rest of my life”.
Not managing your financial affairs legally and
believing you are so important as to fear for your life……now, where have I seen
this before? Trump Lunacy Rating: 7/10
A shocking story made all the more remarkable
by Nicola Sturgeon who said she “had no knowledge of Murrell's crimes or
covering up wrongdoing”. Really? Sturgeon said that while she would have
visited Murrell's mother's house while the motorhome was parked outside, she
has no "conscious memory" of having seen it. Really……because the
motorhome was as big as the house that it was parked outside of.
And just to add a little more disgust to the
story……the investigation cost the taxpayer £2 million (and counting) to uncover
the £400,000 of wrongdoing. Trump Lunacy Rating: 9/10
In any other month, Murrell would be a
certainty for the award. But this month’s Trump of the Month could only be
given to……Keir Rodney Starmer.
To take such a large majority at the General
Election and turn it into major distrust within 2 years is truly extraordinary.
To then believe you are the best person for the role after such a catastrophe
at local elections is lunacy beyond all comprehension.
We deserve better.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
““The times they are a‑changin’.”
Bob Dylan (1964)
