July 2026 will be remembered as a month that loosened a few screws and pretended not to hear the rattling.
History will remember the month that Labour looked
at the political merry-go-round and said, "You know what this needs?
Another spin."
Keir Rodney Starmer departed as PM……and a
non-MP went through a quick political jiggery-pokery to be shoehorned in.
Andy Burnham suggested new tax powers and
policies……and half the country reacted like he’d proposed replacing the NHS
with a giant bouncy castle.
The Trump redefined the meaning of “ceasefire”
by consistently bombing Iran because it was all going swimmingly and to plan.
The ceasefire has seen the Strait of Hormuz designated a warzone and has transformed
it from a shipping lane into a maritime obstacle course.
Russia launched yet another massive strike on
Kyiv……with the UK media covering it with the same intensity they usually
reserve for a hosepipe ban at this time of year.
Half of England celebrated goals by silently
raising an arm in front of a TV that was on volume level 2 so not to wake
family members whilst watching England in the World Cup in the middle of the
night.
The other half of England entered the annual Wimbledon
tradition of believing this is definitely our year……when a young Brit (although
he’s as much French as English to be fair) overachieved to reach the semi-final.
The UK had another heatwave with temperatures
reaching that of ‘continental Europe’……while British homes reached ‘slow-cooked
casserole’ status.
Schools broke up for summer. Teachers
celebrated six weeks of peace. Parents celebrated by googling “September term start
dates”.
We celebrated National Ice Cream Day by queuing
for 45 minutes for a 99 Flake and then complaining for 2 hours that the flake
isn’t what it used to be.
And it was a month of 25 years of marriage
being celebrated by my wife……one lucky lady. Quarter of a century married……you don’t
need vows……you need medals.
July 2026 was quite a month on reflection.
The Numbers
The numbers were dominated by the UK’s political
merry-go-round. Starmer made way for Andy Burnham, saying “I wish him every
success, he has my full support”, which was just possible to hear through
the noise of gritted teeth.
He immediately set about appointing his cabinet……27
appointments in total with the most significant of all being John Healey as Chancellor.
It was only 6 weeks ago that Healey (then
Defence Secretary) wrote in his resignation letter to Starmer that "I
am certain that a headmark date for 3% of GDP on defence in 2030
is what Britain must set." Now it is his job as Chancellor to make
those numbers add up.
So many Labour ministers left Government……but we
were told not to worry as there was a huge array of talent waiting to replace
them. Apparently.
15 new additions to the cabinet.
12 members of Starmer's cabinet retained, with
7 staying in the same post.
3 new positions that will attend cabinet……AI Minister,
Intergovernmental Relations Minister and Housing Minister.
The press were keen to point out that the array
of talent and appointments included……
- A new Housing Secretary who “resigned” in
disgrace from the same job because she couldn’t even pay the correct stamp duty
on house number 2…..but was then cleared when she paid up.
- A
previously sacked convicted fraudster who will be in charge of ethics in the
Cabinet Office.
- A Business Secretary that had to apologise to
parliament over misleading CV statements.
- A Chancellor who couldn’t count how many
frigates we had in our fleet when he was defence secretary
- A Defence Secretary with no military experience
(despite multiple ex-servicemen available)
Burnham then made his first phone calls as PM……
1 Donald Trump
2 Volodymyr Zelenskyy
3 Ursula von der Leyen
4 Emmanuel Macron
5 Mark Rutte
6 Friedrich Merz
7 Antonio Costa
Interesting, yet no surprise, that The Trump
was the first call……he is the President of the World after all.
Burnham then unveiled a VAT cut on household
electricity bills from October, worth around £45 a year for a typical
household, plus a £2 bus fare cap in England from January. It might not
be a game changer but the messaging is very different than Starmer’s first
action as PM (removing the £300 winter fuel payment for the most
vulnerable).
However, the big headlines came from comments
that Andy Burnham wants to unfreeze the tax-free personal allowance. But can he
afford to?
The personal allowance has been frozen at its
current level of £12,570 since April 2021 and will remain there until
2031 at least. If it had never been frozen and risen in line with inflation, it
would be worth about £16,072.
Raising the allowance by £100 costs the
Treasury roughly £1 billion a year. If Burnham were to increase it to £16,072,
it would cost around £35 billion.
There is no denying that the policy would be
popular among millions of individuals (AKA voters) but where is that level of
cash coming from? One of the many riddles that need resolving at the next
Budget!
Inflation in the UK fell to its lowest level in
more than a year after a reduction in global oil prices after the US and Iran’s
(very) tentative ceasefire agreement. Inflation fell to 2.6% from 2.8%
the previous month……the lowest inflation reading since March 2025.
Government borrowing came in slightly below
official forecasts last month, offering early respite for Andy Burnham and John
Healey. The Government borrowed £16 billion, down from £23.3 billion
the previous month. It was also £4.7 billion lower than the £20.7
billion in the same month last year.
The borrowing bill was pushed down by growing
tax receipts and lower-than-forecast spending on inflation-linked bonds.
The Government collected more Income Tax, VAT, National
Insurance and Corporation Tax last month, pushing up total tax receipts to £91.6
billion from £85.4 billion in the same month last year.
Before we all get excited about the public
coffers looking super rosy, it is worth noting that Government borrowing has
still overshot forecasts and is running at £2.7 billion more than forecast.
The Trump number of the month (#1)……
The US hit Canada with 50% tariffs after
wildfire smoke from Canada reached the US. The Trump said the US had been “invaded”
by dirty air and that the “cost of this pollution must be added to the TARIFFS Canada is currently paying”. Interesting that his
response to the human suffering and devastation was to make money rather than
help. Quelle surprise.
His media company plans to sell high-speed early
access to the US President’s social media posts to trading firms for a monthly
fee of $100,000. Or to put that another way……you can buy my decisions before
it gets to the mainstream media so that I can further monetise being POTUS. I
think we are now bordering on the redefinition of ‘insider trader’!
HMRC number of the month……
The top 10% of earners in the UK are now
paying 60% of the UK’s total Income Tax receipts (to be in the top 10%,
workers must earn over £72,500).
Departing Starmer number of the month……
Starmer has overseen more than £1.5 million
in taxpayer-funded payouts to remove senior civil servants from their posts in his
2 years as Prime Minister.
Favourite number of the month……Year 7
done!
Whilst there were a few notable contributions
to the art of lunacy, nothing came close to Nigel Paul Farage and he is
a very worthy winner of the July 2026 Trump of the Month award.
Nothing has created such a conundrum for me
than Nige’s rise to prominence over the last 12 months.
He is clearly smart enough to make headlines……but
perhaps not always clever enough to avoid becoming one. He’s not thick……more selectively
intelligent. Like a fox that keeps getting caught because it enjoys the chase. It’s
the kind of intelligence that thrives on chaos rather than calculus.
Which makes Nige’s announcement that he is
resigning as MP for Clacton……only to stand in the resultant by-election it
creates……look utterly crazy. It’s madness right out of The Trump’s playbook.
Then you scratch a little deeper and you
realise that if Nige is no longer an MP it will pause the two investigations by
the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner into undeclared benefits.
The first is a £5 million gift from Christopher
Harborne (a cryptocurrency billionaire), which Nige insists he is entitled to
spend as he sees fit. The second investigates benefits in kind, including
security, accommodation and staff from George Cottrell (a convicted fraudster).
So, the resignation takes the heat off the
investigations and the headlines stop……for now.
What Nige failed to factor in (1)……is that most
of Westminster have seen through the stunt, with no other major political party
entering a candidate to run against him (his biggest rival for re-election is Count
Binface).
Badenoch summed up the situation perfectly when
saying that Nige was having a “hissy fit”, described the by-election as
a “fake” contest and accused him of “running away from scrutiny”.
Sensible words for once from the leader of the opposition.
What Nige failed to factor in (2)……both
investigations will resume if Nige wins the Clacton by-election. If the
commissioner finds against him, Nige would then face another by-election.
You really couldn’t make it up. It is total and
utter madness……that I have no doubt a certain Orange One over the water would
be envious of.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“"Nothing in the world is more
dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
Martin Luther King Junior
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