Monday 5 December 2016

Stressful Banking

 
In the aftermath of the banking collapse of 2008 (you remember that right?), new rules were imposed by the Bank of England on UK banks to ensure that they had sufficient in reserve to withstand any major financial shock again (rather than taxpayer bailouts).
 
An annual stress test then gauges the financial reserves, strength and resilience of the UK's seven major lenders - Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Santander, Standard Chartered and Nationwide Building Society. The stress test involves testing against a doomsday scenario which would see economic growth plunge to levels seen during the financial crisis of 2008.
 
UK house prices fall by 31%
UK GDP falls by 4.3%
UK unemployment rises to 9.5%
Global GDP falls to 2%
China enters recession with -0.5% growth
US and Eurozone GDP falls by 3%
Oil drops to $20 a barrel
 
The 2016 annual stress test results have just been published and it is not pretty reading……RBS, Barclays and Standard Chartered all performed poorly and failed to meet the stress test minimum standards.    
 
On the one hand……all three financial institutions have now put plans in place to bring them up to a level to meet the stress test minimum requirements.
 
On the other hand……eight years on from the financial crisis and taxpayer-owned RBS is still short of the money it needs to survive another one. So is Barclays. So is Standard Chartered. RBS came bottom of the class by some way.
 
A financial crisis does not give notice when it is going to pay a visit and there is no time to get your house in order. Now add to that the rapid increase in debt in China and the world looks like a dangerous place - not for the first time.
 
RBS has been found vulnerable……and we own 73% of vulnerable RBS.
 
A little worrying.

Monday 28 November 2016

Autumn Statement 2016



 

 

Introduction

 

The Autumn Statement 2016 was made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond on Wednesday 23 November. The Autumn Statement in full is published on HM Treasury’s website but a summary of the key points are as follows:

 

 

 

Economy

 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast growth to slow and inflation to rise over the next two years.

 

OBR forecasts growth at 2.1% this year (higher than the previous forecast of 2%) but for it to slow down to 1.4% next year (down from the previous forecast of 2.2%) and then recover to 1.7% in 2018, 2.1% in 2019 and 2020 and 2% in 2021. The OBR have also highlighted that there is a higher than usual degree of uncertainty in these Forecasts (due to the increased uncertainty surrounding Brexit).

 

Mr Hammond announced that the Government will no longer seek to deliver a budget surplus in 2019/2020 given growth slowdown and that it will introduce three new fiscal rules:

 

-               Returning public finances to balance as soon as possible in the next Parliament

-               Debt as a proportion of GDP must be falling by the end of this Parliament

-               A cap on welfare spending monitored by the OBR

 

 

 

Income Tax

 

Income Tax Rates & Thresholds

The main rates of income tax for the 2017/2018 tax year will remain at 20% for basic rate taxpayers, 40% for higher rate taxpayers and 45% for additional rate tax payers.

 

As originally announced in the March 2016 Budget, from 6 April 2017 the personal allowance will increase to £11,500 and the basic rate limit will increase to £33,500. The threshold above which additional rate tax becomes payable will remain unchanged at £150,000.

 

For individuals with a full personal allowance this means that the 40% higher rate will apply to income above £45,000.

 

The Chancellor also reaffirmed the Government pledge to increase the personal allowance to £12,500 and the threshold above which people pay higher rate tax to £50,000 by the end of this parliament.

 

Personal Savings Allowance

This will remain unchanged at £1,000 for basic rate taxpayers and £500 for higher rate taxpayers. There will continue to be no personal savings allowance for additional rate taxpayers.

 

Dividend Allowance

This will also remain unchanged at £5,000 in 2017/2018 with any dividends in excess of this allowance continuing to be taxed at the following rates depending on which tax band they fall in:

 

Basic rate - 7.5%

Higher rate - 32.5%

Additional rate - 38.1%

 

National Insurance

 

As recommended by the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS), the National Insurance secondary (employer) threshold and the National Insurance primary (employee) threshold will be aligned from April 2017. This will mean that both employees and employers will start paying National Insurance on weekly earnings above £157.

 

As originally announced in the March 2016 Budget, Class 2 NICs for the self-employed will also be abolished from April 2018. Following the abolition of Class 2 NICs, the Autumn Statement confirms that the self-employed contributory benefit entitlement will instead be accessed through the payment of Class 3 and Class 4 NICs.

 

 

 

Capital Gains Tax

 

Employee Shareholder Status (ESS)

The tax advantages linked to shares awarded under ESS will be abolished for arrangements entered into on, or after, 1 December 2016. The status itself will be closed to new arrangements at the next legislative opportunity. This is in response to evidence suggesting that the status is primarily being used for tax planning instead of supporting a more flexible workforce.

 

Offshore Funds

UK taxpayers invested in offshore reporting funds pay tax on their share of a fund’s reportable income, and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on any gain on disposal of their shares or units. The Government will legislate to ensure that performance fees incurred by such funds, and which are calculated by reference to any increase in the funds value, are not deductible against reportable income from April 2017 and instead reduce any tax payable on disposal gains. This equalises the tax treatment between onshore and offshore funds.

 

 

 

Inheritance Tax

 

From April 2017, Inheritance Tax will be charged on UK residential property when it is held indirectly by a non-domiciled individual through an offshore structure (such as a company or a trust). This closes a loophole that has been used by non-domiciled individuals to avoid paying inheritance tax on their UK residential property.

 

 

 

Corporation Tax

 

The chancellor has reaffirmed the Government’s intention to reduce the rate of corporation tax to 17% by April 2020.

 

 

 

Indirect Tax

 

Insurance Premium Tax (IPT)

To fund commitments made in the Autumn Statement, Insurance Premium Tax will rise from 10% to 12% in June 2017. IPT is a tax on insurers and any impact on premiums to consumers depends on insurers’ commercial decisions. However, as with previous increases (from 5% to 10%), it is likely that the increase in IPT will be passed on to consumers by way of higher premiums for insurance. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pensions

 

Money Purchase Annual Allowance

The Money Purchase Annual Allowance will be reduced from £10,000 to £4,000 from 6 April 2017. The Government will consult on the detail in due course. This impacts the over 55’s who are drawing benefits from their pensions.

 

Foreign Pensions

The tax treatment of foreign pensions will be more closely aligned with the UK’s domestic pension tax regime by bringing foreign pensions and lump sums fully into tax for UK residents (to the same extent as domestic ones).

 

Ban On Cold Callers

A consultation before Christmas will look at ways to tackle pension scams, including banning businesses from cold calling someone about their pension. This includes scammers targeting people who inadvertently ‘opt-in’ to receive third party communications.

 

State Pension

Despite some pressure to reform the ‘triple lock’ on the State Pension, the Government has pledged to keep it. This pledge will see the state Pension rise each April (until 2020) at a rate of inflation, average earnings or 2.5% (whichever the greater).

 

 

Salary Sacrifice

 

Following consultation, the tax and employer National Insurance advantages of salary sacrifice schemes will be removed from April 2017 except for arrangements relating to pensions (including advice), childcare, Cycle to Work and ultra-low emission cars.

 

This will mean that employees swapping salary for benefits will pay the same tax as the vast majority of individuals who buy them out of their post-tax income. Arrangements in place before April 2017 will be protected until April 2018 and arrangements for cars, accommodation and school fees will be protected until April 2021.

 

 

 

Investments

 

Individual Savings Accounts

From 6 April 2017, the ISA subscription limit will increase from £15,240 to £20,000 and the Junior ISA and Child Trust Fund limits will increase from £4,080 to £4,128.

 

As announced in the March 2016 Budget, the new Lifetime ISA will be available in April 2017. It will provide those aged 18-40 with a new way to save for their retirement or to buy their first home. Every £4 saved into the Lifetime ISA will receive a £1 top-up from the Government.

 

NS&I

In order to support savers, National Savings & Investments (NS&I) will offer a new three-year Investment Bond with an indicative rate of 2.2% from spring 2017. The bond will offer the flexibility to put away between £100 and £3,000.

 

 

 

Property Investment

 

The Government have announced that letting agents will no longer be able to charge renters fees (for example when they sign a new tenancy agreement) which will stop tenants being hit with fees averaging £223 per tenancy. The Government will consult on this in due course.

 

 

 

Venture Capital Schemes

 

In the Finance Bill 2017 the Government will amend the requirements for the tax-advantaged venture capital schemes – the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS), the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS) and Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs).

 

 

 

Non-Domiciles

 

As previously announced, from April 2017 non-domiciled individuals will be deemed UK-domiciled for tax purposes if they have been UK resident for 15 of the past 20 years or if they were born in the UK with a UK domicile of origin. Non-domiciled individuals, who have a non-UK resident trust set up before they become deemed-domiciled in the UK will not be taxed on income and gains arising outside the UK that are retained in the trust.

 

 

 

Tax Avoidance

 

A new penalty will be introduced for those helping someone else to use a tax avoidance scheme. Tax avoiders are to be hit with significant bills when HMRC defeats their avoidance scheme and this new penalty will ensure that those who help them will also face the consequences.

 

Tax avoiders will also not be able to claim as a defence against penalties that relying on non-independent tax advice is taking reasonable care.

 

 

 

National Living Wage

 

Following the recommendations of the independent Low Pay Commission, the Government will increase the National Living Wage (NLW) for those aged 25 or over by 4.2% from £7.20 to £7.50 from April 2017. It is estimated this will result in a pay increase for over a million workers.

 

For younger workers, the NLW will also be increased from 6 April 2017 as follows:

21 to 24 year olds: An increase from £6.95 to £7.05 per hour

18 to 20 year olds: An increase from £5.55 to £5.60 per hour

16 to 17 year olds: An increase from £4.00 to £4.05 per hour

 

 

 

Other

 

Fuel Duty

Fuel duty will remain frozen for the seventh consecutive year, with planned rises for 2017 removed.

 

New Childcare Schemes

Working families will be entitled to 30 hours of free childcare per week for all 3 and 4 year olds from September 2017.

 

Future Autumn Statements To Be Abolished

The Autumn Statement is to be abolished immediately and the 2017 Spring Budget will be the last. Instead, the UK will have annual budgets from Autumn 2017 and from 2018 there will be a Spring fiscal statement that responds to the latest OBR forecasts.

 

 

 

 



Disclaimer
 
Every care has been taken to ensure that this information is correct and in accordance with law and HM Revenue & Customs practice, which may change. However, independent confirmation should be obtained before acting or refraining from acting in reliance upon the information given. This information is based on announcements made in the March 2016 Budget and November 2016 Autumn Statement which may change before becoming law.
 

 

 

 

Wednesday 23 November 2016

Autumn Philip or Fillip?


 
Today’s Autumn Statement was the first major economic announcement since the Brexit vote. So it was a pretty big deal……a bigger deal than normal. What we got was a Chancellor keen to blame the Brexit vote for all actions he announced, coming exactly 5 months since the vote result. There were no big giveaways. No rabbits out of hats. He effectively had a ‘get out of jail free’ card that he played very firmly.  
 
So what did we learn?
 
Economic Forecast
As expected, forecasts are to slow, based on the Office For Budget Responsibility’s independent assessment. GDP is now forecast to be:
 
1.4% in 2017 (down from 2.2%)
 
1.7% in 2018
 
2.1% in 2019
 
2.0% in 2020
 
All in all, pretty sluggish forecasts in summary.
 
Public Debt
Poorer economic forecasts mean that there will be less tax revenue for the Government and this will result in higher borrowing. In fact, Philip Hammond announced that the Government will no longer follow the course of George Osborne and look to swing the deficit into a surplus by 2019 but instead will increase public debt from 84% of GDP to 90% of GDP by 2017/2018.
 
Investment
A fund of £23 billion will be created over the next 5 years to pay for “high value investment” in Infrastructure and Innovation. The devil will be in the detail as to which areas of the country will benefit and which sectors.
 
Tax
George Osborne’s planned reduction of Corporation Tax to 17% is to remain to give the UK an advantage over many other leading economies. There was also confirmation that the planned increases in the tax free personal allowance will continue and will grow to £12,500 by 2020 (it will be £11,500 from April 2017).
 
However, these will be paid for by:
 
-       Insurance Premium Tax on car, home, etc. insurance to rise from 10% to 12%
-       The majority of salary sacrifice schemes offered by employers will be abolished.
 
Selected Other
Free childcare will increase from 15 hours to 30 hours per week from September 2017.
 
The National Living Wage for the over 25’s will increase from £7.20 to £7.50 per hour from April 2017.
 
Estate Agency fees to be abolished on rental contracts.
 
A new pension bond will be available for those in retirement and will be launched next year by National Savings & Investment (NS&I). It is likely to be an interest rate of 2.2% per annum over a fixed term of 3 years.
 
Fuel Duty rises at the garage forecast will be scrapped for the 7th consecutive year.
 
Conclusion
Every so often, a Budget or Autumn Statement comes along that breaks seriously bad fiscal news. This is one of those occasions. The forecasts confirm that there will be a £220 billion increase in national debt by the end of parliament to a staggering £1.945 trillion. Huge Brexit impact on public figures……worse than feared. Who truly understood that back in June?
 
It will make many look at the last 6 years of austerity, public service cuts and redundancy and ask…..what was the point when the promise of an ‘economic surplus’ has been scrapped at the first opportunity?
 
Not too many positive announcements to cling on to.

Monday 21 November 2016

Mute Chancellor To Speak

 
You would be forgiven if you struggled to name who the Chancellor is currently, such is the quietness in which he operates. But fear not……Philip Hammond has no choice but to speak, give us some (hopefully clear) direction and generally play his political straight bat on Wednesday for the Autumn Statement.
 
Given his lack of voice since being appointed 4 months ago, it is difficult to understand where he will take us with his first Autumn Statement.
 
He is almost certainly likely to cut growth forecasts for the UK economy, which is likely to lead to the public debt and deficit getting bigger. That leaves him with the only options being to increase spending or cut taxes to boost the economy. Or both maybe?
 
There is likely to be a priority on spending on new homes and transport rather than following his predecessor George Osborne's aim to balance the books by 2020.
 
It’s fair to say that he isn’t a fan of what has gone before and he has pretty much ripped up most of George Osborne’s policies (and they are from the same political party!!!). Yet he has done this way below the radar by not being seduced by the power that the positon brings. It may be dangerous but it is also a welcome change of tact.
 
The radar dodging has come to an end and his voice will be heard this Wednesday.
 
All will become clearer……hopefully.

Thursday 17 November 2016

Brexit Bombshell

 
 
The Brexit plots thickens!
 
Theresa May has held firm that Brexit means Brexit and she was to flex her ministerial muscles to determine when and how Article 50 was triggered without the need for MPs to have a voice or vote.
 
Campaigners called this unconstitutional and the High Court agreed……meaning that Parliament must vote on whether the UK can start the process of leaving the EU……not Theresa May or anyone else on a Westminster whim.  
 
From Theresa May’s perspective, she had 3 objectives she was running with:
 
1.     Hold her negotiating cards close to her chest.
 
2.     Make sure MPs didn’t have some kind of vote veto on the negotiations.
 
3.     Delivering the Article 50 ‘moment’ at the date she said she would.
 
Given the High Court ruling, all 3 objectives are now under threat……no surprise that she has appealed the ruling and this will be considered by the court at the start of December.
 
Assuming the appeal is thrown out (and it should be), what will MPs do?
 
Interestingly, 3 out of 4 MPs backed remain but continuing with such a theme would mean Westminster taking on the people / voters and going against the result. What a predicament.  
 
We are only a short way through our march to Brexit, yet already things are incredibly complicated!
 
Brexit walks into a bar. The barman says "why the long farce?"
 
This could be a long drawn out story!