The Month That Was……March 2024

What a time to be alive! Super Tuesday in America followed in the same 24 hour period by the Budget. A decade of birthday excitement in one hit. What else could a middle aged man with few hobbies ask for? (a life probably!)

For the record, The Trump won in 14 of the 15 Republican states on Super Tuesday while Biden dominated in the Democratic contest. It leaves a rematch that nobody wanted.

“They call it Super Tuesday for a reason,” The Trump exclaimed. “This is a big one. They tell me, the pundits and otherwise, that there has never been one like this, never been anything so conclusive.”

Unfortunately, for once, he was right.

Perhaps it’s just me, but it is completely insane that someone who is glaringly unfit and unable to do the job of President could get anywhere near the Oval Office again. But here is the real problem……I could be describing either candidate. A man of little conviction who can barely string a sentence together against a man of little conviction who can barely string a sentence together.

According to the 675 million US citizens that are eligible to run for President, these two are as good as it gets.  

And let’s also be honest, it is no better here.

We have a serving Government who are the most unpopular in (insert number of your choice, but pick a big number) decades, yet they get to decide when the next General Election will take place by trying to predict at what point they might not be quite as unpopular as they have been for the previous 4 years. 

In the meantime, Jezza delivered a Budget that included fat shaming Keir and digs at Angela Rayner’s tax affairs (the irony) when he should be more interested in economic point scoring rather than political sparing. If only.

He also used it to make numerous mentions of successful lobbying efforts for specific policies by Conservative MPs, most of them in marginal seats. Clearly the Budget speech is for self-promotion more than anything else!

Which all provided the perfect backdrop for the former Prime Minister Theresa May to announce that  she will stand down as an MP at the next General Election (despite holding the Maidenhead seat for 27 years). She can clearly see the writing on the wall for the Tories generally and the Brexit mess she caused coming home to roost.

A further 63 MPs elected as Conservatives are to quit Parliament at the General Election…..that number will grow dramatically after the masses have voted.  

And what can we expect from a Labour Government waiting in the wings? Nobody knows as their strategy is simply to say nothing, avoid controversy and be elected by default.

Is it any wonder that 6 out of 10 UK voters feel politically homeless.

It really does feel like we deserve better both sides of the Atlantic……we will have to wait some time for it though.

 

The Numbers

The Budget dominated the numbers this month given that they are pretty important in an election year. 

68 minutes of guff that contained pretty much everything that was leaked prior to the speech. These days, the leaks flow thick and fast and there is no point in playing the Budget guessing game. Budget leaks used to be a resignation offence. Now they are an essential part of the news management process.

The backdrop to what the Tories are battling, is the legacy of 14 years of their own making. Government debt has increased sharply. Instead of falling to 75% of GDP in 2024-25 (as predicted by Rishi in 2020 when Chancellor), it is on course to hit almost 99%. In cash terms this is an extra £650 billion. Meanwhile, measures to restrain the debt rise with higher taxes mean the tax burden, which in March 2020 was set to remain at 33% of GDP, is already well above 36% and heading for an all-time high of 38%.

Sandwiched between Rishi and Jezza as Chancellor has been Nadhim Zahawi and Kwasi Kwarteng. Their legacy and incompetence are the reason why there is little wiggle room.

The rising tax burden, a near-decade long freeze in income tax and national insurance allowances and thresholds and an increase in corporation tax, has much further to run. It is why Jezza cannot contemplate what many want…..the unfreezing of the freeze on allowances and thresholds. That would deprive the Government of too many future tax revenues.

 There was a striking choice of language from the Chancellor, with Jezza talking about the economy having “turned a corner on inflation” and will “soon have turned the corner on growth.” The whole idea of having turned a corner is a fascinating and contestable one, given we are in a (mild) recession and the projected growth for 2024 being just 0.8%. But hey, let’s not let the truth get in the way of political spin.

Fiscal headroom (one for us cardigan wearers) for the next Government will be an almost record low of just £8.9 billion. So, there is almost no shock absorber and little scope (without significant economic growth) for increased public spending.

Forecasts suggest inflation will fall below 2% in "just a few months time" according to Jezza and that the fall in inflation “didn’t happen by accident.” Really? It kind of did though…..just as it went to 11% by accident.

One for the small businesses……there is to be an increase in the threshold for VAT from £85,000 to £90,000, which is welcome but doesn’t quite compensate for a 7 year freeze.

One for the middle-earning parents……the child benefit threshold is to be increased to £60,000 and top taper limit raised to £80,000, meaning 170,000 families are taken out of losing the benefit.

One for the masses……employee National Insurance will be cut by another 2p, from 10% to 8% and self-employed National Insurance will be cut from 8% to 6%.

A second one for the masses……oil and gas windfall tax will be extended by an additional year to 2029, raising £1.5 billion.

One for the savers……a British ISA (BRISA) will be added to the library of ISA’s and will come in the form of an extra £5,000 tax-free allowance for the public to invest exclusively in UK. He literally gave no details……as there weren’t any as Jezza will make up the rules in the next tax year. 

The theme and framing of the Budget suggests that Rishi and Jezza are waiting for another OBR forecast and an opportunity for further tax cuts in the Autumn Statement before going to the country to vote.

Interest rates should be lower. Economic growth should be higher. Real household disposable income is now forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels. Cuts to energy bills will start to be felt. The Bank of England is expected to have started cutting interest rates too.

Economics do not always drive the politics, but despite the opposition daring Rishi to call an election in May, the signals from today are Autumn.

Jezza said that he hoped his budget would “change history.” The concern among Tory MPs is that it has not done enough to change the future.

Elsewhere, my own favourite number of the month……2……the number of wins the little lady achieved at her school swimming gala. 

 

Trump of the Month

Oh my goodness. I really wished I hadn’t delved deeper on this as I am angry beyond words (I’ll give it a go though).

The winner of Trump of the Month for March 2024…… HMRC.

In amongst Jezza’s Budget speech was the announcement that HMRC has been allocated an additional £140 million to spend on reducing tax that is owed to the Government but has yet to be paid.

“Additional?” It comes on top of the £163 million announced in the Autumn Statement.

So, £303 million allocated in just 4 months.

“Yet to be paid” you say?

The Office for Budget Responsibility and HMRC published data showing the
Government was owed about £40 billion in unpaid income tax and £30 billion in unpaid VAT. Across all taxes, HMRC calculates that it is owed slightly less than £120 billion. This is double the £50 billion that was owed before the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

£120 billion! And for dramatic effect……£120,000,000,000.

To put that figure into perspective, that is (broadly) the same amount as the cost of the banking bailout of 2008.

So, when Council Tax rises in the coming weeks to pay for diminishing services or when you hear of someone joining an NHS waiting list that is expressed in years (not months) or you hit yet another pothole in the road……remember that £120 billion figure.

What is the point of having tax policies / rules if they are going to be ignored and public services and debt are compromised to accommodate the lack of tax policing?

What a mess. What absolute lunacy.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.”

Friedrich Nietzsche

The Month That Was……February 2024

January seemed to last eight years but now it’s March, even though February only started yesterday. Getting to March seems like a big win. Spring feels like such a positive time. The sprouting of better things is all around us and it has afforded me a more productive outlook and reflect on some big wins this month……

- Pancake day was a huge success……essential for any semi-decent parent in charge of a 9 year old. To be fair, I could have served up cardboard (it wasn’t far off) and she would have been happy given the mountains of layered Nutella. Take that Shrove Tuesday.

- Valentines Day came and went without upsetting my wife……mainly because she has adjusted her expectations after 26 years. It’s still a win in my eyes. 

- I discovered the immense benefits of using a 2 metre long phone charging cable in comparison to the standard issue 1 metre. It’s an absolute game changer.

- I still remain the only person in the country to live without an air fryer.

- I went two days in a row without having to reset a password. Definite progress.

- I also went two days in a row without getting a lecture on leaving crumbs in the Lurpak. 

- Finding out that “let’s get some dates in the diary,” is not a stressful diary management exercise……it actually means you can relax as absolutely nothing is going to happen.

- Getting the bin day correct for three straight weeks. Refuse hattrick.

- I refused a mid-morning biscuit……I know, utter madness. Admittedly, I thought about the mindless self-sabotage for the rest of the day but it felt cathartic nonetheless.

- Understanding that aggressive politeness is not only a thing but completely acceptable. However, it is reserved only for those drivers who let you out of a junction before them……but look furious about it.

- I took my politeness to a whole new level. Upon reaching my destination in a taxi, I said (in true British fashion) “anywhere here's fine thanks.” The driver didn’t hear me and by the time I mustered the courage to repeat myself, I’d added a ten minute walk to my journey. I also told him to keep the change. And then I realised it was chucking it down. As you can imagine, I retold the story to anyone who would listen for the next week in a proper rant. But the taxi driver was happy, which is the main thing.

I managed to buy two items in the village shop without saying “just these, please” when I put them on the shop counter. The server looked bemused but we still managed a successful transaction.

I am sure you would agree that it has been an undeniably positive month. It’s what spring is all about.

The Numbers

I know I like a statistic more than the average person but it felt like the numbers were being thrown at me from all angles this month.

2024 is a historic year, with elections in 50 countries for 2 billion voters. The UK may / should have an election this year as it must be held by 28 January 2025. In the most recent poll that asked, “will you vote for Rishi or Keir?” 70% of those questioned responded with ‘neither’. We live in a political wilderness.

All eyes will be on 6^th March Budget……expect Jezza to incentivise / relax the rules on pensions to encourage investment in the UK. There is now £5.7 trillion accumulated in UK pensions, more than the £4.5 trillion of total wealth we hold in properties. Interestingly, the average size of a pension ‘pot’ for 55 – 65 year olds in the UK is just £105,000.  

For the first time, global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an entire year, according to the EU's climate service. Adopted by 194 parties (193 countries plus the EU) in the French capital, the Paris Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 when world leaders pledged to try and prevent global temperatures rising by more than 1.5C. Complete failure and no sign of these ‘leaders’ now?

With no sense of irony, Labour confirmed the same morning that they were scrapping their pledge to invest £28 billion a year (until 2030) into growing a green economy in the UK. Classic timing.

Electric car sales to private buyers fell by 25% this month. The number of zero-emission vehicles as a proportion of all new registrations is just 14.7%, a reflection of the premium price for such cars, poor charging infrastructure in the UK and the flip-flopping of the Government’s green policies. What a mess.

The By-election swing of 28.5% from Tories to Labour in Wellingborough was the second largest swing from Tory to Labour at a By-election since the Second World War.

Microsoft beat Apple’s record market capitalisation and became the largest US public company ever with a value of $3.13 trillion (beating the record set by Apple of $2.92 trillion).

The Office for National Statistics announced that GDP fell by 0.3% in the last period for 2023, meaning we are officially in recession. It was the ‘mildest’ start to a recession since the 1970s. Jezza entered stage right to insist that the economy is “turning a corner.” Really? It doesn’t feel like we have left the last recession.

Inflation stayed at 4%. While 4% might not seem like a big number when we have had 11.1% inflation, it's double the Bank of England's inflation target of 2%. Interestingly, it was the first monthly drop (0.4%) in food prices for 2 years. It was no surprise that UK interest rates were held at 5.25% by the Bank of England, despite the announcement that more than 100,000 mortgage borrowers are in trouble as arrears levels rise.

More than £1 trillion of the UK’s savings is sitting in accounts earning less than 2%, despite a 5.25% base rate. It is clear that UK banks are profiting at the expense of their customers by not passing on higher interest rates in full. In other news, the ‘big four’ (Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest) made collective profits of £41 billion for their last accounting period.

It’s now been over 500 days since formal commencement of the UK Covid Inquiry. Are we actually any clearer on what went on at Government?

My own favourite number of the month……26……years with this one. What a lucky lady!  

Trump of the Month

There were no shortages of entries for the monthly award for lunacy and all are very worthy candidates.

Jezza Hunt informed us that we must “stick to the plan, there are signs the economy is turning a corner” as the UK enters recession. That’s quite a swan song.

Laura Trott got into an argument with presenter Evan Davis about how the Government would stick to its pledge to get debt down whilst also talking about tax cuts. He said official projections showed debt rising. She replied: "It's falling as a percentage of GDP." Her argument that debt is falling when it goes up slightly less fast is the same logic as Rishi implying he’s halved inflation even though it’s still twice as high as it was when he started. The episode exposed the complete economic illiteracy of the Government Treasury Chief Secretary. Very disturbing.

Never far away from putting his foot in his mouth, Rishi made a joke about trans women, while the mother of Brianna Ghey (a trans girl who was murdered), was sat in Parliament watching. Rishi feels very out of touch with reality in the UK. He is a Prime Minster who seems adamant to create World War III to control boats in the Red Sea when he can’t control them in the English channel. I fear history will not be kind to Rishi’s legacy.

Prior to the UK economic announcement, Andrew Bailey (top dog at the Bank of England) said there was “about a 50/50 chance that GDP contracted in the final quarter of last year, which would mean that the UK slipped into a recession.” Or to put that another way…..I really don’t know.

Never one to be shy of headlines, The Trump was ordered to pay $354 million in New York for lying to banks to obtain preferential lending terms and $83.3 million for defaming E Jean Carroll. Of course it isn’t his fault and it’s all a political witch hunt to stop him becoming President. He’s appealing. Obviously. Accountability is not something he can entertain.

All worthy considerations but the winner of Trump of the Month for February 2024…… Kwasi Kwarteng.

He made the announcement this month that he has decided not to stand at the next General Election. I naively assumed he didn’t even have the option given that this is the man that crashed the economy, laughed during the Royal Funeral and made mortgages rise for all. His tenure as Chancellor was a dangerous embarrassment that was 38 days of destruction. Imagine, being fired by Liz Truss for incompetence. Could there be a greater disgrace?

He leaves a truly remarkable legacy and I have every faith that his achievement will live on for decades to come. After all, not many people can claim to have wrecked a major economy in under three weeks. Correction, it was half an afternoon's work. Quite some achievement.

Not standing in the General Election? As if.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“There are few things more dangerous than a mixture of power, arrogance and incompetence.”

Bob Herbert

The Month That Was……January 2024

Is it just me or are we stuck in 2016 and going through some kind of sick groundhog experiment?

Apple was / is the biggest company in the world and has released yet another iPhone that looks exactly like the last iPhone but apparently it is so much better because (insert lame reason here). 

In 2016, the UK was governed by incompetent Tories with a leader (David Cameron and then Theresa May) that was so out of touch / arrogant to what those on the ground really needed. Fast forward to 2024……literally nothing has changed.

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in 2016 looked astonishingly poorly thought out and continues to offer little or no economic benefit. We are still scratching our heads at Brexit 8 years later.

The newly formed 2016 Paris Climate Change Agreement was signed by 195 nations vowing to limit any increase in global temperatures. It still promises much, is delivering little and we still question the point of it.  

The world's 62 richest people were as wealthy as half the world's population……and still are.

Train workers and junior doctors in England are still striking over pay and working hours in exactly the same way as 2016.  

The pound is still worth a pittance against the dollar. 

And there is the practical joke of The Trump looking to become POTUS all over again. I know, baffling isn’t it!

It feels like so much has changed over the past 8 years but I am fearing that it is so little in reality.   

The Numbers

It’s that time of the year when ‘expert’ economists iron their cardigans and wax lyrically to anyone that will listen (and force those that don’t) to their opinion on exactly what will happen with the economy this year. Just like every other year, they will get it wrong.

The theme and outlook from these ‘experts’ on the economy is one of ‘flatlining’. The Bank of England’s forecast of 0% growth this year and just 0.25% next is gloomy.

Hopes that the consumer and business cavalries will come to the rescue will be dampened by the fact that much of the effect of the interest rate rises between December 2021 and August 2023 has yet to come through. Just ask those 2 million mortgage holders that have a fixed interest rate coming to an end this year.

The key driver of interest rates is the position of inflation, with popular opinion that inflation is on track to fall below the Bank of England’s target (2%) as soon as April. And to be crystal clear……this is down to a hefty cut to energy bills and not because of anything remotely looking like competency at the Bank of England or Number 10 / 11.

Despite this, inflation crept up to 4.0% from 3.9% this month in a move that was widely predicted. The inflation pattern was similar in the Eurozone (up to 2.9%) and US (up to 3.4%). Inflation clearly doesn’t fall in a straight line!

An interesting side angle on the US and UK launching strikes in Yemen over recent attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea is that this could impact inflation. 15% of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea and delays will see the cost of some goods increase.

The news will be obsessed by interest rate cuts when inflation drops towards the 2% target. Their expectation will be that such an inflation level will allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates sharply from their present level of 5.25% (15 year high), possibly starting as soon as May. We shall see!

A ‘perfect storm’ of higher interest rates, rising costs and downbeat consumer demand has pushed up the number of companies on the brink of bankruptcy by 25.9%. A clear indication that the current state of the economy is biting hard.

Perhaps the most disturbing figures of the month were those associated to the Post Office scandal. £1 billion had been budgeted for compensation payments for more than 900 convictions linked to the scandal over 16 years, with only 93 being overturned so far. Perhaps the most disturbing part of the dreadful story is that it took an ITV serialisation and public outcry for the Government to do the right thing. Is it too much to ask for decent people to lead our country?

My own favourite number of the month……8……the number of miles walking on the North Yorkshire Moors with little legs. 

Trump of the Month

He’s back. You know it, I know it, and worse still, he knows it too. Donald Trump may or may not become the 47th President, but he will dominate the world far more than he should during 2024.

My moral dilemma is how to cover something impartially that is fundamentally awful and bad.

Perhaps I should just stick with the facts rather than the person……but there is a problem with that. Between 2016 and 2020, The Washington Post kept a tally of the “false or misleading claims” The Trump made in office, and came to a total of 30,573. During the first hundred days in office, The Trump’s total was 511……for Joe B it was 78.

 Is it possible, do you think, to see those numbers and still stay calm? Or does one start to sound a little obsessive? Even a little insane?

If you want to understand the sheer lunacy of The Trump, January 2024 offered plenty of examples.

In one 24 hour period, he won the Republican nominee vote in Iowa by the largest margin in history……he then attended court to defend himself against a defamation of character case (brought  by a woman who was awarded $5 million of damages by a jury in a civil case that found The Trump guilty of sexual assault) and then took to social media to defend himself as breakfast TV compared The Trump to Hitler, Mussolini and Saddam Hussein!

Do not let The Trump’s hot air obscure the fact that this man has already been President and that he was a frightening, dangerous one, alarming even to plenty of people who had convinced themselves beforehand that he was on their side.

There could only be one winner of the Trump of the Month for January 2024……The Trump.

I feel my biggest challenge of 2024 will be to try to remain impartial and find an alternative winner each month……I fear I may fail.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Calling it lunacy makes it easier to explain away the things we don't understand”.

Megan Chance