The Month That Was……March 2023

It’s been a strange old month. Not just politically or economically……I have come to the bizarre conclusion that I live in a world that is stuck in an oxymoron void.

It all started with a conversation where I was informed that “we do it every year now as it’s a new tradition.” Eh? It’s either ‘new’ or it’s a ‘tradition’……it can’t be both surely? Then barely 5 minutes later I was told that I needed to provide an ‘original copy’. I get that I am an easily confused man but this completely threw me……for days. Literally.

But here’s the thing……the contradictions are everywhere and I can’t escape them. The radio played a ‘live recording’……the film I watched was an ‘authentic reproduction’……the news reported a ‘partial ceasefire’……the advert offered a ‘limited lifetime guarantee’……the documentary discussed a ‘dry lake’.

The problem is when your radar notices oxymorons and it impacts your every movement in life because ‘almost everything’ is described in contradiction. I am literally a walking ball of confusion. How am I supposed to interpret ‘plastic glasses’, ‘true replica’, ‘uninvited guest’, ‘open secret’, ‘friendly fire’, ‘deafening silence’, ‘accurate estimate’, ‘final draft’, ‘good grief’, ‘small crowd’……I’m surrounded by them.   

Stop it. Stop it now. I definitely maybe can’t cope.

 

The Numbers

March is always an interesting month in my world given all the excitement that comes with the Budget (I know……I need to get out a little more!). Rishi and Jezza seem to be displaying the most worrying of traits if you’re Labour……competence. There was no boom and bust promises……just more vanilla politics and reasonably sensible budgeting. 

The key take aways from the Budget were:

- UK will avoid a technical recession this year but the economy will contract by 0.2% and then grow by 1.8% in 2024.

- The Office for Budget Responsibility is predicting inflation to fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 (despite increasing to 10.4% this month).

- The energy price guarantee will remain at £2,500 (on average) for the next three months. This measure will save the average family a further £160 on top of existing energy support measures. By the end of June, households will have received £1,500 in support since October 2022.

- The 5p cut in petrol / diesel duty is extended for a further 12 months. That will save the average driver £100 over the next year at a cost to the Government of around £6 billion. Exactly what will environmental campaigners make of this!

- 12 new ‘Investment Zones’ are to be established including Teesside.

- Corporation Tax for businesses is to increase from 19% to 25%, as planned. Firms which make a profit of more than £250,000 will pay 25% tax on their profits from April. Jezza predicts only 10% of companies will pay the full 25% rate.

- In a bid to get over 55’s back to work, a couple of radical (well, by pension standards) changes on pensions were announced. The pensions annual tax free allowance will increase from £40,000 to £60,000. And he abolished the maximum lifetime tax allowance. Wow……this is a huge middle class bung in preparation for the General Election next year!

And that was about it from the Budget. It didn’t stop the press getting excited on the subject of tax cuts for the wealthy though. Reforming pensions was to encourage highly-skilled workers, such as senior NHS doctors, to remain in the labour market and help to tackle NHS waiting lists. Jezza said this would stop over 80% of NHS doctors from receiving a tax charge. The reality though……NHS doctors account for only 40% of the benefactors of such a tax change!

The Bank of England jumped on the back of the “no recession this year” message to announce it was "much more hopeful" for the UK economy……and then promptly put up interest rates again from 4.0% to 4.25%, their highest level for 14 years.

Rishi joined in the back slapping also to announce "confidence is returning" after official figures showed the economy grew by more than expected.

Despite the economy being slightly better than expected, investment markets were slapped about from the latest banking wobble. Silicon Valley Bank in California needed rescuing and before you could say “here we go again”, Credit Suisse borrowed £44 billion from the Swiss central bank to stem its crisis before being bought by UBS.

Silicon Valley Bank had a big wealth management team providing advice to tech entrepreneurs. Credit Suisse had a huge wealth management division providing advice to high net worth families. Both have completely mismanaged their own finances. You couldn’t make it up!

Rishi did his best to bury his news this month (on the day that BoJo was cross-examined on Partygate issues) that he paid more than £1 million in UK tax over the last three years on earnings of £4.7 million.  

March 2023 also saw Comic Relief do what Comic Relief does so well for the past 35 years……raising another £34 million. 

 

Trump of the Month

There were a number of worthy candidates for Trump of the Month and my cap is tipped in a few directions for efforts to buffoonery.

Firstly, to Jezza. The pension reforms are expected to cost the Treasury £3.84 billion and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that it will increase employment by about 15,000 by 2028. That’s a cost of £256,000 per job! Absolute lunacy on every level.

Secondly, to Rishi. On the back of the Northern Ireland Brexit agreement, Rishi told all that Northern Ireland is “the world’s most exciting economic zone" because of “access to both UK and EU markets” and was in a "very special position" making it an “incredibly attractive” place to invest. This, of course, is the status the whole of the UK had before Brexit. All delivered by Rishi without a hint of irony. Utterly gormless.

Thirdly, to Matt Hancock. Hancock’s ghost writer for his Pandemic Diaries memoir (Isabel Oakeshott)  shared Matty’s private WhatsApp messages with The Daily Telegraph. More than 100,000 messages were in the leak, which did plenty to add to the weight of incompetence for his handling of the pandemic. Amazingly, Hancock’s response to the leak was……to send Oakeshott another private message saying she’d made “a big mistake”! And you guessed it…..Oakeshott then leaked it. You couldn’t script it!

All very worthy candidates and all should be recognised for stupidity. However, this month’s Trump of the Month had to go to……BoJo.

BoJo Johnson forwarded 100 names for a knighthood in his resignation honours list to be vetted by the Cabinet Office. Of particular interest in the list……Stanley Johnson……his father. 

BoJo’s lack of shame, embarrassment or regret should be of no surprise given that he nominated his brother for a peerage in 2020 (he is now Lord Johnson of Marylebone).

A couple of thoughts on this……

Firstly, given that Stanley Johnson helped produce and raise BoJo, surely it’s not a knighthood he should be facing but a bill for damages.

Secondly, perhaps now might be the right time for the resignation honours list to be reformed from a reward to family, friends and donors to something that is more morally digestible.

Just a thought.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

"The most important human endeavour is the striving for morality in our actions."

Albert Einstein

The Month That Was……February 2023

Economic forecasts have been in the news this month……probably too much. Not since it organised a humiliating bailout of the UK economy in 1976 has the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attracted more headlines than it did in February…..or more criticism. At the heart of the criticism was a new forecast that, for the UK at least, was very unremarkable.

The IMF’s prediction of a 0.6% drop in GDP this year produced a storm of “what do they know?” outrage, particularly as it coincided with the third anniversary of Brexit.

The same day, the Bank of England announced a rise in interest rates to 4% and hinted that this could be close to the peak.

Less noticed was the Bank of England’s new forecast of a milder recession than it had predicted in November but predicting a gloomier (than the IMF) 2024. All of which is consistent with an economy that will feel flat, rather than declining sharply.

When forecasts are in the headlines, we have to get used to the “they’re always wrong” chorus from people who have no real understanding of them. Forecasts are conditioned on assumptions and getting them right has been extremely difficult recently.

At the beginning of 2020, nobody could have predicted the severity and consequences of the pandemic. A year later, when the vaccine rollout had barely started, it was hard to predict how effective it would be. This time last year, while the drums of war had started, nobody could have accurately predicted the effects of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The events have made the assumptions look foolish (think Matt Hancock eating camel penis on live TV in a jungle).

The best way to react to economic and recession forecasts is not to shoot the messenger but accept that they convey an important general message and theme about the economy’s vulnerabilities.

The UK economy has shown itself to be vulnerable to a series of shocks, starting with the financial crisis, then Brexit, then the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Of these, the self-inflicted one, Brexit, is likely to be most damaging in the long run.

Well……that’s what I predict anyway.

 

The Numbers

With the odd exception, the tone seems to have changed over the past month. Economists have begun to admit that, while the torments the global economy is going to inflict on us this year are still likely to be rubbish, there is a faint possibility (a prediction) there will be slightly less wailing and gnashing of teeth than initial estimates forecast.

Whilst the Bank of England raised interest rates from 3.5% to 4.0% as expected, they softened their language around further hikes as the inflationary squeeze on the economy abates. There are now hopes (a soft prediction) that UK interest rates will peak at 4.5%.

This was on the back of inflation falling for the third month in a row to 10.1%. Whilst nobody will celebrate inflation running at a 40 year high, the trend suggests that the pace of price rises across the economy is slowing.

A decline in fuel prices was the main factor driving down the headline figure but this was in part offset by food inflation, which remained at a 45 year high as shortages and soaring energy bills pushed up costs for farmers and producers. The price of food and non-alcoholic drinks has risen by nearly 17% in the past year. 

Chancellor Jezza Hunt, with his finger on the pulse as ever, said that while the fall in inflation was welcome, “the fight is far from over” since “high inflation strangles growth and causes pain for families and businesses — that’s why we must stick to the plan to halve inflation this year, reduce debt and grow the economy”. Why would we want 5% inflation on top of 10%......that’s 15% inflation in as many months. Surely the aim is to hit the Bank of England target of 2% otherwise why do they exist? Just a thought.

With the ‘prediction’ that we have passed the peak of inflation, are close to ending interest rate rises and a likely mild recession, the UK enjoyed a surprise rebound in consumer confidence this month. Confidence rose by 7 on the GfK index as the longer term economic outlook has the whiff of positivity.

The Rolls-Royce of indices, the Purchasing Managers Index, reading for February reached 53.0, up from 48.5 showing private sector business is returning to profit and growth (a level above 50 is good news!). That’ll be business confidence increasing also.

Just as important to the world (and UK) economy is the prospect that the US is reaching peak interest rates also as inflation appears (yep, another prediction) to be under control. This was set against a backdrop of a growth surge in jobs this month, defying fears that the US economy is heading for a downturn. US employers added 517,000 jobs last month, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.4%......the lowest rate since 1969.

Our biggest trade partner, the Eurozone, also saw better than expected economic data and is now expected (that’ll be another prediction) to expand by 0.9% and avoiding falling into recession. As well as higher growth figures, inflation is forecast (AKA a prediction) to slow more than previously forecast to 5.6% this year and 2.5% next year.

Brexit has been centre stage this month as we reach the third anniversary, with many commentators keen to tell all how much it has cost us. The best of the researched reports (by Bloomberg) suggests it is costing the UK economy roughly £100 billion a year and the economy is 4% smaller than it might have been if the UK had stayed in the EU. Regardless of the exact amount, creating friction and obstacles with your biggest trade partner is never going to have a good outcome economically.

It was interesting to see the different reporting approaches by the press and media on the profit announcements by Shell and HSBC this month.

Shell delivered a record annual profit of $40 billion and HSBC recorded annual profits of $18 billion. Shell was battered from all angles with a “how dare they make profit” when our energy bills are going up. HSBC pretty much went under the radar yet they have manipulated the increase in interest rates to their advantage by charging borrowers significantly more and not passing on the interest rate increases to savers. Both companies are guilty of manipulating the current situation to their corporate advantage yet two very different stories have played out publicly.

Perhaps the proudest numbers of the month were saved for my 8 year old little lady for swimming 64 lengths to complete 1 mile. Why? She just felt like it!  

 

Trump of the Month

I got to thinking about Juan Antonio “Chi-Chi” Rodríguez this month. Chi-Chi is an 87-year-old Puerto Rican who once played golf for a living. He was very good and an eight-time winner on the PGA Tour who was later inducted into the Tour’s Hall of Fame. Yet Rodríguez is more famous for what he once said rather than anything he did on the course.

“Golf,” he claimed, “is the most fun you can have without taking your clothes off.”

I sat and contemplated this as Liz Truss wheeled out a 4,000 word interview of sorry excuses for the financial hand grenade she set off……and I thought, you’re wrong Chi-Chi……watching Lizzie is far more fun.

She instigated a brand new excuse……and I have to say I think it might be the greatest and most useful of our lifetimes. Since the moment I heard it I’ve been joyously obsessed with it. I must have used it ten times on the first day it came into my life. Even now, I still find myself triumphantly slapping it on the table during minor disagreements. Frankly, it’s so powerful that it works everywhere.

Are you ready for Lizzie’s big excuse……here we go!

“I was brought down by the left-wing economic establishment.”

Yes, since the Telegraph published this immortal headline this month, accompanying Lizzie’s 4,000-word explanation of why nothing was her fault and she is still absolutely smashing, I have been saying it on repeat like a gleeful parrot.

I know what you’re thinking……“I haven’t said this as there’s not really any suitable opportunities in my life for me to employ this caveat. It’s not really relevant to anything I do. I haven’t been brought down by the left-wing economic establishment.”

But that’s why it’s great……because……neither was Liz Truss……and yet……she said it.

There is no “left-wing economic establishment” unless Truss really believes that the Treasury, the IMF, the Bank of England, the markets, the majority of the Conservative Party and the public (with whom she registered all-time opinion-poll lows) are all closet Marxists who somehow brought about her downfall.

Even Kwasi Kwarteng admits you got “carried away” writing the mini-budget that triggered a £65 billion bailout and ruined everyone’s mortgages……and he was your best mate! My main conclusion from this is that it is important that Lizzie is never allowed to hold any sort of job that has to do with economics……or thinking for that matter.

Still. You can’t argue with the power of the mantra “I was brought down by the left-wing economic establishment”. Like a Buddhist, Lizzie’s chanting of this seems to leave her feeling serene, powerful and content. There was not one word of apology in her Telegraph 4,000 word piece. 

Her confidence in herself is truly remarkable. She lasted 44 days as Prime Minister and she is already making a comeback. It might be spectacularly misplaced, wholly unwelcome and, quite frankly, astonishing……but it’s there.

The comeback, I suspect, is down to the magic of “I was brought down by the left-wing economic establishment”. Say it. Who knows what it could do for you?

A spectacularly misplaced, unwelcome and astonishing comeback……it has The Trump written all over it!

There could only be one winner of Trump of the Month for February……Liz Truss.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“There are few things more dangerous than a mixture of power, arrogance and incompetence.”

Bob Herbert

The Month That Was……January 2023

And relax. The worst month of the year is over and things only look up from here. We can all dispense with our resolutions that have failed by the second week of January for another year.

For the record, my resolution was to stop being such a bloody British stereotype. I’m literally a walking cliché. It’s got to the stage when I’m even annoying myself now.

I find it impossible to place items on a shop counter without saying “just these please”. I have a statutory obligation in every taxi journey to ask the driver if it’s a “busy night” and then end the journey with “anywhere here’s fine”. I find it compulsory to do a funny jog when someone's held the door for more than 2 seconds or to jog the last two yards when using a zebra crossing (including a soft ‘thank you’ wave and nod).

And don’t get me started on my mandatory top comedic craic of informing my neighbour that “there’s another one here when you’re done” when they’re washing their car. I don’t find it funny let alone anyone else but I just feel compelled to be a solid British bloke. I even bore myself with the offer of carrying bags to pretty much anyone going on holiday.

So……I felt it was a worthy resolution for 2023 and gave it my best shot. And when I say ‘best shot’, I lasted until 3^rd January when I asked my daughter “is the door shut” after she slammed the car door and apologised to an old dear in the supermarket when we bumped trolleys and I followed up with “Sorry, I haven’t passed my test yet”.

I know….it’s shameful and pathetic stuff. I am just one step away from union jack shorts.  

The Numbers

In his first address of the year, Rishi set out goals that he insisted voters should hold him to account  on. He said he wants to:

- Halve inflation to ease the cost of living and give people financial security. How does 'halving inflation' ease the cost of living? Prices will still be going up 5% per annum on the back of a 10% increase!

A quick terminology explanation for Rishi. Inflation is a measure of how quickly prices rise. If you halve inflation, prices will still rise just less quickly. So halving inflation would still mean things are more expensive than they are now.

- Grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity across the country. Nice idea but there are 1,161,000 job vacancies currently. You might want to find a million or so people to fill the vacancies first. Just a thought.

The lack of available labour is a contributor to inflation as it pushes wages up and then the cost of the services / products we buy. Political nonsense spouted by Rishi doesn’t address the issue that Brexit causes a barrier for more overseas labour.

This is basic stuff for Number 10 to grasp surely?

Inflation still continues to rage at a 40 year high, but it is moderating as it fell for a second consecutive month to 10.5%. Not that you will feel any moderation as food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose by 16.9%. This is the highest food inflation since 1977. And don’t be fooled by the political narrative that  this was all caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine……food inflation has risen every month since July 2021 (long before Putin invaded).

Tumbling gas prices thanks to unseasonably warm weather could save the Government billions in energy subsidies and debt interest payments. The UK’s wholesale gas prices dipped below pre-Ukraine war levels this month, to as low as £1.62 per therm. That compares with a peak of £6.40 at the height of the energy crisis in August and is a drop of more than 50% since the start of December.

The latest gas forecasts would mean the Government being on the hook for £10 billion less of household bill support, compared with what was forecast in the November budget. This has raised the question of how the Chancellor might spend the money instead but Jezza is still expected to have little room for manoeuvre in his March budget as the economy is expected to be in recession, meaning that tax revenue will be lower than expected.

Sterling gained strength against the dollar on the back of inflation cooling and gas prices falling. A stronger pound can only help to make imports (like food) cheaper. The pound surged to a 7 month high against the dollar to $1.24. It’s positive news (it was $1.03 in September) but Sterling has lost nearly 10% of its value against the dollar over the past year.

Financial markets are pricing in another interest rate rise of 0.5% from the present level of 3.5%. Whilst predicting anything the Bank of England does is a fools game, popular opinion suggest that the central bank will start dropping rates by the autumn. We shall see……we only ever seem a slip of the political tongue away from another catastrophe! 

January saw the 10 year anniversary since David Cameron promised an in / out referendum on the UK's EU membership "to settle this European question in British politics". And here we are 10 years later. Thanks for that Dave.

Trump of the Month

A really solid start to 2023 with some very worthy candidates for Trump of the Month. 

I love the Trump-like hypocrisy of Harry and Meghan complaining of not being able to live a private life yet releasing a Netflix series showing intimate moments at home. Is it just me or are they invading their own privacy? 

There is the most appalling video of Jezza doing his Mr Bean impression with an ‘inflation for dummies’ sketch. All the patronising hall marks of The Trump himself.

Jezz Does Mr Bean

There was the significant u-turn by Rishi who was “very satisfied that the matter was closed” on the tax issues of Nadhim Zahawi……until the media and press wouldn’t let it lie……and 4 days later Rishi declared with enthusiasm that a “full investigation has been ordered” with the Ethics Committee. I don’t know about you but my left eyelid involuntarily spasms whenever Number 10 mentions ‘ethics’.

Then The Trump got in on the act as well. A congressional committee published six years of The Trump’s tax returns, which reported just $750 in tax was paid in 2016 and 2017, with no tax paid in 2020, despite reporting tens of millions of dollars in earnings from his global property empire. His response? “Paying no tax shows how successful I am”. Classic The Trump.

All very solid nominees but this month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award is……Nadhim Zahawi. It has to be.

The background to the story is that Nadhim Zahawi paid around £5 million to settle a tax dispute with HMRC, which included a penalty on the £3.7 million owed.

According to Nadhim Zahawi, the penalty (of over £1 million) was for a “careless and not deliberate” error.

The tax was due to a capital gain on sold shares in an offshore trust that was set up in the tax efficient territory of Gibraltar. Not the UK……a tax haven. What I can’t understand is how anyone can ‘carelessly’ register shares offshore for tax efficiencies, ‘carelessly’ put them in his parent’s name and then ‘carelessly’ sell them for £27 million. It’s not like losing your keys or spilling coffee……registering shares offshore and selling them is a cumbersome task.

What I also find weird is that Nadhim Zahawi did not ‘carelessly’ pay too much tax. Very strange. Sometimes careless means couldn’t care less.

But here’s the big one……he settled the tax investigation with HMRC when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Or to put that another way……when he was the head of the Treasury and ultimately responsible for tax collection in the UK. He was HMRC’s boss.

With billions of pounds at stake in the Treasury, thought and deliberation are usually a minimum requirement. Apart from anything else, ‘carelessness’ in the distribution of billions of pounds is not normally a qualification for holding a job like the Chancellor (one would assume). I assume wrong though. Farcical stuff.

Perhaps the most shocking thing of all though is that Rishi did the right thing and sacked Nadhim Zahawi as the full facts unravelled.

A Prime Minister with a moral compass……whatever next!

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Farce treats the improbable as probable, the impossible as possible”.

 George P. Baker

The Month That Was……December 2022

The festive season is normally a time I like to fondly reflect on what’s gone before and what lies ahead……but all of that Christmas cheer has been ruined by my anger at this new ‘elf on the shelf’ tradition. Exactly who decided this and signed if off?

The challenge of finding a different hiding place each night. Not too easy to find…..but hard enough for the hiding game to last around 31.25 seconds at 6:30am every morning for an 8 year old. The pressure is immense……it’s a fine art……for 24 days in a row. It’s the ultimate Japanese endurance test.

What is this tyranny? Which sick individual gets to decide on making Christmas yet more expensive and yet more of a faff? Can anyone have a go? Can I have a go? Apparently, this ‘tradition’ dates from 2005 and the book by Carol Aebersold and Chanda Bell, which was sold with the toy. Yeah, great work guys.   

As it is, I’m only just getting over the ‘tradition’ of the ‘Christmas Eve box’, which is basically a box full of little gifts you give the day before and which is just taking the micky. It’s practically two Christmas Days now.

Perhaps my patience would be a little more charitable if I didn’t have to do my annual ‘traditional’ pilgrimage to fight with semi-naked Geordies for the briefest peak of the Fenwicks Christmas window having just about survived ‘traditional’ ice skating with semi-naked Geordies without breaking a bone. Just. 

Then there is the ‘traditional’ last minute scramble to find a solicitor working in the week before Christmas. If you and your partner have agreed “not to get each other anything” this year, then it’s really important to make sure you have something in writing. Got witnesses? Perfect. Make them sign something because there is no betrayal more brutal and no sensation more chilling than spotting something under the tree wrapped with your name on it just before you head to bed having not bought anything for that special someone. My biggest top tip for Christmas……quite simply, lawyer up.

And don’t get me started on the ‘tradition’ of Pantomime. Spending a fortune being ‘entertained’ by Z list celebs wheeling out endless double entendres that need awkwardly explaining to an 8 year old (my standard response after an hour was “ask Mummy”). And exactly how do I explain why the Z list man is dressed as a woman, why he / she has gigantic breasts and why mummy’s don’t make a ‘honk’ noise when squeezed as well. What a barmy ‘tradition’ and I blame Christopher Biggins whole heartedly.    

And while we are here……who decided that eating the smallest tub of ice cream with a small piece of wood for a fiver was a good idea as half time entertainment at the Panto?

And my reward? A ‘traditional’ festive hot chocolate bought from a glorified B&Q shed that took the skin off the roof of my mouth, left me sounding like Bruce Springsteen for a week and thoroughly disappointed by the lack of change from my £10 note. And just for the record……no, I do not want a shot of Bailey’s for an extra £4……ever. No festive hot chocolate should ever be priced more than a glass of warm flat champagne. Ever.     

And just when I thought faffing had reached full peak, I noted that Marco Pierre White was waxing lyrical that the perfect Christmas roast potatoes should always start with the potato peeled “from top to bottom”. Eh? Are the top and bottom marked? Have I just missed that all these years?

Ah yes. The magic of Christmas lives on.

The Numbers

When you look back on 2022, one thing sticks out like the proverbial sore thumb……inflation.

The return of inflation has been painful and all-encompassing. It has dominated economic and business decisions, leading to more interest rate rises in any year since 1988. The latest rise was a 0.5% increase to 3.5%, its highest level since early November 2008.

Although the latest figures for inflation show a fall in the annual rate from 11.1% to 10.7% and may indicate that we are past the peak, we will end the year with inflation in double figures. 12 months ago the Bank of England predicted inflation to peak at around 5% in spring. Ouch.

The more I read from the ‘experts’ on inflation forecasting, the more I feel that it is like driving blindfolded and taking directions from a back-seat passenger who is looking out of the rear window.

Inflation is a big deal. The cost of Government borrowing set new records at the end of 2022 as it is heavily linked to inflation. Then add in the cost of living payments pushing up Government costs at the same time tax revenues dropped. The public purse was squeezed further as Liz Truss’s (remember her?) reversal of the 1.25% in National Insurance contributions lowered tax revenues.

Not a good festive cocktail to drink……£7.3 billion was paid in interest on Government debt last month, up from £4.9 billion in the same month last year.

When you open your next energy bill, how will you feel about BP’s profits that have more than doubled to $8.2 billion in the last quarter of 2022? They actually made about $3 billion in profits from just gas trading in only three months as it cashed in on the global scramble for liquefied natural gas after Russia cut pipeline supplies to Europe. There are clearly winners in this energy crisis!

The big Government announcement last month was Big Bang II……what it describes as the “biggest overhaul of financial regulation for more than three decades”. It is essentially a package of more than 30 reforms that will "cut red tape" and "turbocharge growth". Or to put that another way……allows banks to make money far more easily.

We’ve tried ‘unleashing the City’s potential’ before. It didn’t end well. Between 2007 and 2009 the then-Labour Government spent £137 billion of public money to bail out banks. Overall, taxpayers have lost £36.4 billion on those bailouts (according to the Office for Budget Responsibility). That’s a pretty big lesson we really should learn from!

If there is one story last month that highlights banks needing stiff regulation, consider this……34.3% of Starling Bank’s pandemic bounceback loans are in danger of default. Who would have thought that poor due diligence on the borrower at outset would contribute to problems later down the line? Amateur banking at best.

Our sacred property market looks a little fragile at the moment. Buyers and sellers have gone into hiding as prices fall. Falling house prices won’t stimulate the housing market as long as people are concerned about high mortgage rates and the cost of living. Nationwide data reveals the drop in house prices last month was the biggest since February 2009 (excluding the pandemic lockdown of May-June 2020). House prices are now 2.5% below the peak in August, with the average house price almost £10,000 cheaper.

And finally……how do we all collectively feel about BoJo making more than £1 million from four speeches since leaving Number 10? That’s quite a reward for failure. 

 

Trump of the Month

I am not even going to pretend there is a worthy candidate to rival this month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award……Steve Barclay. 

 

The Health Secretary (Secretary of State for Health & Social Care if we want to be formal) has the key responsibility for the oversight of England’s NHS and England’s Social Care policy. That’s it.

When you are the fifth Health Secretary in 18 months, you need to have the realisation that those that have gone before you didn’t have the courage to solve the problems. That then turns into a nasty legacy that we are witnessing now……one in eight beds in NHS hospitals are occupied by older people who are well enough to be discharged but can’t be because there isn’t a social care place for them. Is it any wonder that we have all read stories of people waiting in A&E for days to be allocated a bed.

Until our broken care system is fixed, the NHS will be swimming with a millstone around its neck, with predictable consequences for patients and staff. Applying a plaster or two and then moving on is no longer acceptable on any level. Find the political will and bravery to address the mess.

Clear leadership is what is required……yet how many of us knew that Steve Barclay is the Health Secretary even after 3 months in the role?

(for reference, I had to ‘Google’ it)

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm”

Publilius Syrus