And relax. The worst month of the year is over and things only look up from here. We can all dispense with our resolutions that have failed by the second week of January for another year.
For the record, my resolution was to stop being such a bloody British stereotype. I’m literally a walking cliché. It’s got to the stage when I’m even annoying myself now.
I find it impossible to place items on a shop counter without saying “just these please”. I have a statutory obligation in every taxi journey to ask the driver if it’s a “busy night” and then end the journey with “anywhere here’s fine”. I find it compulsory to do a funny jog when someone's held the door for more than 2 seconds or to jog the last two yards when using a zebra crossing (including a soft ‘thank you’ wave and nod).
And don’t get me started on my mandatory top comedic craic of informing my neighbour that “there’s another one here when you’re done” when they’re washing their car. I don’t find it funny let alone anyone else but I just feel compelled to be a solid British bloke. I even bore myself with the offer of carrying bags to pretty much anyone going on holiday.
So……I felt it was a worthy resolution for 2023 and gave it my best shot. And when I say ‘best shot’, I lasted until 3rd January when I asked my daughter “is the door shut” after she slammed the car door and apologised to an old dear in the supermarket when we bumped trolleys and I followed up with “Sorry, I haven’t passed my test yet”.
I know….it’s shameful and pathetic stuff. I am just one step away from union jack shorts.
The Numbers
In his first address of the year, Rishi set out goals that he insisted voters should hold him to account on. He said he wants to:
- Halve inflation to ease the cost of living and give people financial security. How does 'halving inflation' ease the cost of living? Prices will still be going up 5% per annum on the back of a 10% increase!
A quick terminology explanation for Rishi. Inflation is a measure of how quickly prices rise. If you halve inflation, prices will still rise just less quickly. So halving inflation would still mean things are more expensive than they are now.
- Grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity across the country. Nice idea but there are 1,161,000 job vacancies currently. You might want to find a million or so people to fill the vacancies first. Just a thought.
The lack of available labour is a contributor to inflation as it pushes wages up and then the cost of the services / products we buy. Political nonsense spouted by Rishi doesn’t address the issue that Brexit causes a barrier for more overseas labour.
This is basic stuff for Number 10 to grasp surely?
Inflation still continues to rage at a 40 year high, but it is moderating as it fell for a second consecutive month to 10.5%. Not that you will feel any moderation as food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose by 16.9%. This is the highest food inflation since 1977. And don’t be fooled by the political narrative that this was all caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine……food inflation has risen every month since July 2021 (long before Putin invaded).
Tumbling gas prices thanks to unseasonably warm weather could save the Government billions in energy subsidies and debt interest payments. The UK’s wholesale gas prices dipped below pre-Ukraine war levels this month, to as low as £1.62 per therm. That compares with a peak of £6.40 at the height of the energy crisis in August and is a drop of more than 50% since the start of December.
The latest gas forecasts would mean the Government being on the hook for £10 billion less of household bill support, compared with what was forecast in the November budget. This has raised the question of how the Chancellor might spend the money instead but Jezza is still expected to have little room for manoeuvre in his March budget as the economy is expected to be in recession, meaning that tax revenue will be lower than expected.
Sterling gained strength against the dollar on the back of inflation cooling and gas prices falling. A stronger pound can only help to make imports (like food) cheaper. The pound surged to a 7 month high against the dollar to $1.24. It’s positive news (it was $1.03 in September) but Sterling has lost nearly 10% of its value against the dollar over the past year.
Financial markets are pricing in another interest rate rise of 0.5% from the present level of 3.5%. Whilst predicting anything the Bank of England does is a fools game, popular opinion suggest that the central bank will start dropping rates by the autumn. We shall see……we only ever seem a slip of the political tongue away from another catastrophe!
January saw the 10 year anniversary since David Cameron promised an in / out referendum on the UK's EU membership "to settle this European question in British politics". And here we are 10 years later. Thanks for that Dave.
Trump of the Month
A really solid start to 2023 with some very worthy candidates for Trump of the Month.
I love the Trump-like hypocrisy of Harry and
Meghan complaining of not being able to live a private life yet releasing a
Netflix series showing intimate moments at home. Is it just me or are they
invading their own privacy?
There is the most appalling video of Jezza doing his Mr Bean impression with an ‘inflation for dummies’ sketch. All the patronising hall marks of The Trump himself.
There was the significant u-turn by Rishi who was “very satisfied that the matter was closed” on the tax issues of Nadhim Zahawi……until the media and press wouldn’t let it lie……and 4 days later Rishi declared with enthusiasm that a “full investigation has been ordered” with the Ethics Committee. I don’t know about you but my left eyelid involuntarily spasms whenever Number 10 mentions ‘ethics’.
Then The Trump got in on the act as well. A congressional committee published six years of The Trump’s tax returns, which reported just $750 in tax was paid in 2016 and 2017, with no tax paid in 2020, despite reporting tens of millions of dollars in earnings from his global property empire. His response? “Paying no tax shows how successful I am”. Classic The Trump.
All very solid nominees but this month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award is……Nadhim Zahawi. It has to be.
The background to the story is that Nadhim Zahawi paid around £5 million to settle a tax dispute with HMRC, which included a penalty on the £3.7 million owed.
According to Nadhim Zahawi, the penalty (of over £1 million) was for a “careless and not deliberate” error.
The tax was due to a capital gain on sold shares in an offshore trust that was set up in the tax efficient territory of Gibraltar. Not the UK……a tax haven. What I can’t understand is how anyone can ‘carelessly’ register shares offshore for tax efficiencies, ‘carelessly’ put them in his parent’s name and then ‘carelessly’ sell them for £27 million. It’s not like losing your keys or spilling coffee……registering shares offshore and selling them is a cumbersome task.
What I also find weird is that Nadhim Zahawi did not ‘carelessly’ pay too much tax. Very strange. Sometimes careless means couldn’t care less.
But here’s the big one……he settled the tax investigation with HMRC when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer. Or to put that another way……when he was the head of the Treasury and ultimately responsible for tax collection in the UK. He was HMRC’s boss.
With billions of pounds at stake in the Treasury, thought and deliberation are usually a minimum requirement. Apart from anything else, ‘carelessness’ in the distribution of billions of pounds is not normally a qualification for holding a job like the Chancellor (one would assume). I assume wrong though. Farcical stuff.
Perhaps the most shocking thing of all though is that Rishi did the right thing and sacked Nadhim Zahawi as the full facts unravelled.
A Prime Minister with a moral compass……whatever next!
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Farce treats the improbable as probable, the impossible as possible”.
George P. Baker
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