The Month That Was……November 2019

General Election, Farage, party politics, Brexit, the NHS, manifestos, Brexit again, economic boom if we get Brexit done, taxes, more Brexit……a political soup that appeals to few. But to fix the economy, we must fix the politics.

I will forever remember this month for Nicky Morgan (the current Culture Secretary) and her amazing power of maths……I have £10 in my wallet today and will have £10 more tomorrow by simply not spending the first one. Then if I can convince that £20 to stay another day I’ll be up to £40 the day after.

This is the political message that voters are up against (see below: It’s Been A Bad November For……Option 3).

Elsewhere, here’s how November 2019 will be remembered……

 

Festive Farage Frolics

UK politics feels like death by a thousand cuts……the third General Election in 4 years.

Standing in front of Number 10, the man who wanted a General Election, who campaigned for a General Election, who voted for a General Election and whose party voted for a General Election informed all that he didn’t want a General Election. You still with me?

Is there anything BoJo won’t say to get what he wants? Anything? To be fair, the same could be said for many in politics. Sad, but true.

It seems to me that any party that manages to get within touching distance of the ‘not completely useless’ level in their General Election campaign will probably win. I fear that no party will get remotely close though.

All you need to know about UK politics is summed up in one man……enter stage left……Nigel ‘Flaky’ Farage.

After 7 failed attempts to become an MP, Flaky Farage announces he won’t be running for election. Yet he will be his political party’s leader during the campaign.

He then states his party will not contest any seat that the Tory’s won in the last General Election (thus reducing the threat of the Conservatives losing seats). This was declared just 48 hours after he met with The Trump and a further day after a peerage was ‘offered’. Lord Farage…..just let that sink in for a minute.

UK politics summed up perfectly……the power and threat of just one man that isn’t even running for election.

In a bizarre twist……this increases the prospect of a hung parliament being avoided, the Conservatives gaining enough seats to form a majority Government and their Brexit deal getting over the line at the end of January 2020.

But then you remember the loose cannon that is BoJo and all bets are off. 

What a bloody mess.

NHS Battle Ground

Aside from Brexit, the NHS is clearly the battleground that parties have chosen to attack.

Why?

Firstly, we spend more on the NHS than ever before. In 2018 more than £156 billion was spent on health across the UK. It means about 30p out of every £1 spent on public services goes on health.

Secondly, the performance of NHS services is getting worse as a consequence of the austerity cuts over the past decade.

Thirdly, the UK population is ageing. Medical advances have meant that people are living longer. When the NHS was created, life expectancy was 13 years shorter than it is now.

Fourthly, the NHS is one of the largest employers in the world and is the biggest in Europe (with over 1.3 million staff). Which means a lot of voters work there!

Recession Sidestep

The UK economy dodged the recession bullet…….just. In fact, by the smallest possible margin and at the slowest annual rate in almost a decade.

Clearly the economic situation caused by the political uncertainty around Brexit is painful. Very painful. But the idea of the UK economy being ‘officially’ in recession would have compounded the issue and sent negative shockwaves around the world.

If the General Election doesn’t provide a political solution in the first quarter of 2020, expect recession to come knocking again.

Worrying times.

Bonkers Brexit #1

A really interesting piece in the Financial Times looked at the cost of Brexit not happening during 2019. The civil service ‘mobilised’ for a no deal Brexit on 29^th March, 12^th April and 31^st October in a kind of sick, twisted and vile economic / political game. Thousands moved out of their usual day jobs into planning……to then be told to stand down again each time.

Aside from the human and economic cost (and worldwide political embarrassment cost), there is an actual cost to the taxpayers. For example, the Government has spent £100 million on communications during the campaign for Brexit on 31^st October on everything from roadside adverts for lorry drivers to TV / Radio ads.

However, this seems ‘chicken feed’ in comparison to the total spend for 2019……£6.3 billion. That’s……£6,300 million. Or as I like to write it (for pure drama) £16,300,000,000.

And what do we have to show for it?

Bonkers.

Bonkers Brexit #2

Australia and others ask for Brexit trade compensation.

A decent swell of companies have asked for trade compensation from the UK and the EU over Brexit disruption. Fifteen countries (including Australia, US, India and New Zealand), set out Brexit concerns at a World Trade Organisation (WTO) meeting in Geneva.

The main issue for the 15 countries is a system which allows them easier access to the EU's large market for limited quantities of some of their goods, mainly farm produce.

It's a system known as "tariff rate quotas". World Trade Organisation members generally apply taxes / tariffs on imports to many of the goods they buy from abroad. For some products they have made commitments to allow specified amounts to be imported with taxes / tariffs that are lower than what they usually apply (in some cases the reduced tax / tariff is zero).

It makes it more profitable for Australian farmers to sell beef to Europe, for example.

Brexit complicates this.

The current quotas are for the whole of the EU, the UK included. Brexit means the UK and the EU have to decide how to divide them up.

Some countries say that could lead to them having less of the favourable access than they currently have to what is a large and wealthy market. Hence the reason for compensation.

Just for the record, The Trump is arguing that the US could end up with no access to pizza cheese at reduced tariff rates.

Bonkers.

China v US……continued

Trade tensions between the US and China continue at great pace as the prospects of a resolution seem pretty pessimistic. The Trump is reluctant to roll-back existing tariffs……he’s all ego and won’t take a step back for the greater good.

But China is clever……very clever in comparison to The Trump. To be fair, my 5 year old daughter is.

There is more than one way to arm wrestle……enter The People’s Bank of China and their decision to cut the lending rate for the first time since 2015.

Chinese authorities basically altered monetary policy at a time when it is locked in a trade dispute……it was Beijing’s way of letting the US know they can fend them off in the trade battle with one hand, while tweaking monetary policy with the other.

Clever. Very clever. Let’s see what The Trump’s next move is.

It’s Been A Bad November For……Option 1 – Prince Andrew

You know it’s a bad month when your Mum sacks you from doing anything further in public such is the outrage on many, many levels.

No further questions your honour.

It’s Been A Bad November For……Option 2 – Nigel Flaky Farage

Throwing stones from a distance and stirring up anything he can get a spoon in is all well and good if it fits an agenda. But not having the courage to then stand in a public forum to let the public decide if your ideals are what the masses want is simply cowardly and lacks courage.

But are we really surprised? 

It’s Been A Bad November For……Option 3 – Nicky Morgan

BoJo’s pledge to boost the NHS with another 50,000 nurses secured big headlines but quickly came under fire when it included 19,000 nurses who already work in the NHS but are considering leaving.

Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan was wheeled out into the public and tried to defend the 50,000 figure during an appearance on Good Morning Britain but simply couldn’t get the maths to stack up. How could she……but she tried relentlessly!

If you haven’t seen it, look it up. It is TV gold……just not for Nicky Morgan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpcY6HsGmAM

(start at 3:30 / 22:36)

And Finally……

The Conservatives raised £5.7 million in the first week of the official General Election campaign, according to the Electoral Commission. Labour raised a total of £218,500, the Lib Dems received £275,000 and the Brexit Party £250,000. The difference is quite astonishing!