Thursday, 31 October 2019

The Month That Was……October 2019


 

In 50 years time, teenagers will study these past 4 years as part of their modern history studies. It will form part of the curriculum and a generation of poor cardigan wearing history teachers (yet to be born) will have to explain and make sense of our political system and its behaviour towards Brexit.
 
They will also have to explain the background and behaviour of the most powerful person in the world and how they ruled over the US (and the rest of the world for that matter) during the same 4 years.
 
Those history teachers will be cherished sons and daughters……yet they will be laughed at and ridiculed. Those history teachers will lose all credibility as none of their students will believe them. Those teachers will need long term therapy.
 
I urge you to embrace these times as we are the witnesses that must pass these true accounts to the next generations.
 
The history teachers are counting on us.
 
What a time to be alive.  
 
Here’s how October 2019 will be remembered……
 
 
Nightmare on Downing Street
I have just enough will, just, to recap the nightmare goings on (politically) in the leadup to Brexit on Halloween……or not as the case is. Who’d have thought it!
 
So, in case you lost track……
 
BoJo spent many days flexing his political biceps to a packed EU crowd and negotiated a quite remarkable deal. It looked like Theresa May’s previous deal, smelt like it, barked like it, wagged it’s tail like it……only the deal was worse and MP’s voted and agreed to it.
 
What BoJo didn’t plan for was the next bit……debating and arranging the legislation to adopt the deal into UK law. BoJo basically negotiated / arranged / built a car engine with no car to put it in. Darn……so close.
 
Whatever you think about Brexit or the BoJo deal, allowing MPs under 48 hours to read, understand, judge & then vote on a course of action that will alter the social, political and economic future of the UK for generations to come is both reckless and undemocratic. But that’s BoJo for you.
 
So……no deal, no Brexit and no resolution……but we do have a ‘flextension’ until the end of January.  
 
Just to recap……3 ½ years, three extensions, seven defections, 21 deselections, three prime ministers, countless amendments, two prorogations, one Supreme Court judgement, 66 million Brits losing the will to live and we’re at……square one.
 
John Bercow described Brexit as being “in Limbo”, on the basis that MPs have spent every day since the referendum gradually lowering the bar.
 
Only one thing for it then……
 
With a couple of days on their hands in the lead up to Halloween, MPs voted against a pre-Christmas General Election. Then the next day they decided they did want one. Then they had an argument as to whether it should be on either a Monday or Thursday of the same week.
 
Date for the diary then……12 December 2019 for the third General Election in 4 years (the first in December since 1923).
 
Regardless of the day, the likely result of the General Election is another hung parliament just a few weeks before the new extension runs out. What exactly will that achieve?
 
Clearly BoJo believes Brexit will definitely be solved by a slightly different minority government. Clueless stuff.
 
Please stop the UK bus……I want to get off now. I’m done.
 
 
US Presidential Election #1 - Peachy President
The impeachment of The Trump is gathering quite some pace and it’s a snowball that shows no signs of getting smaller.
 
To understand the situation a little more, it is worth stepping back and considering the wider picture for The Trump.
 
Firstly, his approval rating stands at just 43% in the US and no President has ever got re-elected on such a low figure. Given that he is just over a year away from the election, the figure will cause him to stir to action.
 
Secondly, his election opponent is likely to be either Elizabeth Warren or Joe Bidden. Elizabeth Warren is seen as way too radical a choice for traditional Democrats, leaving Joe Bidden as the likely sparing partner in the Presidential Election. He is seen as safe hands and is more voteable (he is the former Vice President to Barak Obama).
 
Add the two together and you start to understand why The Trump is trying to cash in political favours in order to discredit potential threats to winning a second term (even if this is using Presidential powers for personal political benefit).
 
Bizarrely, if the impeachment investigation clears The Trump’s name, he will get a huge approval rating increase and it will probably lead to a second term. The joy.
 
 
US Presidential Election #2 – China in Your Hands
The political and economic fight that The Trump seems to be enjoying will see the detrimental impact to the US economy magnify over the next year. It is almost impossible to get re-elected when in recession (or close to it)……and The Trump knows it.
 
The average tariff on Chinese imports in the US was 8% in 2018, which will have risen to an average of 26% by December 2019 if no action is taken.
 
This explains why The Trump performed a huge U-turn in October by agreeing to stop a proposed 5% tariff increase on certain imports and he brokered a huge soya bean trade agreement that will see the largest country of soya bean harvesting (US) sell to the biggest consumer of such a product (China). Who’d have thought it!
 
Not only did The Trump tweet about the amazing deal……but he did it in capital letters……so it must be really good (or he left the caps lock on……which is probably more likely).
 
The truth is, the trade war and tariffs are still there, very real and the situation is currently more of a temporary truce than a significant resolution.
 
Given that economic stability is key to re-election, expect more of the same as the months tick by.  
 
 
Royal Retirement Ramble
The Queens Speech unveiled new pension legislation……super interesting in my world.
 
Firstly, there is to be a state-sponsored digital pensions dashboard that allows people to see all their retirement arrangements in one place for the first time. The hub will allow users to track their savings on smartphones and other devices in a move designed to make it easier to calculate how much people need to save.
 
Secondly, executives who plunder pension schemes or run them into the ground will face up to seven years’ imprisonment.
 
Charles Counsell, Chief Executive of the Pensions Regulator, said that new criminal sanctions and civil fines would “act as a strong deterrent against risky and reckless behaviour, giving us flexibility to issue fines at the appropriate level”.
 
And that was it. A bigger slap on the wrist for ‘wrong’uns’ and a smart new app to confirm what a disappointing retirement looks like for many.
 
I expected more. I wanted more. We deserve more.
 
 
Joyless Germany
Germany is the leading candidate for a recession currently, which should alarm us all. The issue is that 47% of its economic performance comes from exporting goods and ‘the world’ is simply buying less German goods.
 
Germany’s economy makes up 30% of the total EU economic performance, which is a big deal given they are our largest trade partner.  
 
To make matters worse, The Trump has ‘a thing’ for luxury German cars being imported to the US. Expect tariffs in the future and his next big spat being with Mrs Merkel  
 
 
October’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Thérèse Coffey
Thérèse Coffey, the Work & Pensions Secretary, called the new Pension Legislation (see Retirement Ramble above) “the next crucial step in making Britain the best place in the world to retire”.
 
Call me sceptical but a new app (which is a decade late) and bigger penalties for the reckless does not make “Britain the best place in the world to retire”.
 
She is clearly drunk, deluded or desperate.
 
Don’t believe the hype.
 
 
October’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Ken Clarke
When discussing BoJo’s new negotiated Brexit deal, MP Ken Clarke (Tory royalty since 1970) described it as "a very bad deal" and “worse than Theresa May's dog's breakfast"!
 
And get this……he voted for it.
 
Is it just me or is it very uncool that the UK’s political future could be determined on the basis of “let’s just get it done because we’re bored”.
 
Hang your head in shame Mr Clarke.
 
 
October’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Chris Grayling
The new Transport Secretary (Grant Shapps) has negotiated and awarded Government contracts of £87 million to ferry companies to transport medicines in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
 
Brittany Ferries, DFDS, P&O and Stena Line will be able to deliver those supplies from 31 October 2019, aimed at making sure deliveries of vital products continue if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
 
Under the previous Transport Secretary (Chris Grayling), the UK paid £51 million to cancel no-deal ferry contracts with companies that had no ferries.
 
Chris Grayling is no longer Transport Secretary……his legacy is cemented though.
 
 
And Finally……
In a joint press conference with the Italian President, The Trump claimed that America’s relationship with Italy goes back “thousands of years”. Well, I’m pretty sure Columbus only set sail around 500 years ago. What next……the Colosseum in Rome is in fact Trump Tower?

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