After 3½ years of political constipation, a
truly remarkable General Election provided a well received laxative.
Regardless of your political alliance, there is
no doubting that the stodgy political position has changed for the next 5
years. Good news? Bad news? We shall see.
As I keep reiterating……(1) Fix the politics to
(2) fix Brexit to (3) ignite the economy.
Here’s how December 2019 will be remembered……
(1) Fix The Politics
So there you have it……BoJo won by such a margin
that he created the highest Conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher in
her powerful pomp.
In a symbolic move, BoJo gave a maiden speech
in former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair’s constituency of Sedgefield (a
Labour safe seat for years……but now Conservative). Bojo proclaimed, “this is a
brave new dawn”, yet 48 hours earlier he hid in a fridge rather than speak to
the media. You couldn’t script it.
The next 5 years should look like the complete
opposite of what has transpired since the referendum. For all the frustrations
of blocked politics over the past 3½ years, a political party in power with an
80 strong majority can pretty much get on with whatever it wants over the next
5 years.
I am not suggesting that a Bojo majority fixes
politics……but it will stop the quick sand politics we have had and that has got
us nowhere very quickly.
It would take a monumental political disaster
(on an unprecedented scale) for anything other than the Conservatives passing
all they want in Parliament. Surely even BoJo couldn’t mess this up……surely?
We should now get political consistency over
the next 5 years and, regardless of which party came into power, this can only
be a good thing for the UK.
Hold on to your hat, the pace of change should
be supersonic in comparison to the past few years.
(2) Fix Brexit
The previously negotiated BoJo Brexit deal was
passed in Parliament when he held a majority of minus 44. Given the new
significant majority, there shouldn’t be much opposition to it being passed
again.
The key thing will be to get the legislation to
support Brexit agreed and passed during January 2020. Again, with a majority of
80, how could it not?
Most of the major detail regarding leaving the
EU is yet to be decided……those blanks get filled in when we leave and 31
January 2020 now looks very realistic.
The most fundamental decision for BoJo after
the UK legally leaves the European Union is where to position our relationship
with our biggest trade partner.
The public backing for his renegotiated deal
creates the room to go for a straightforward Canada-style free trade agreement,
detached from European regulation and standards. That could mean trade
frictions and trade taxes payable at the border. There is a lot to
consider……and that is without The Trump throwing his opinion and flexing
political muscle.
Much to decide and the economy stands at a
cross-road waiting.
(3) Fix The Economy
The current position with the UK economy is
horrible…… economic
growth is at its slowest since early 2009.
Released data by Office for National Statistics
(ONS) the day before voting showed that, of the three major components of the
economy, two (Production and Construction sectors) shrank and the powerhouse Services
Sector managed growth of only 0.2%
Brexit uncertainty and pre-election concerns
have clearly taken their toll. It’s horrible in fact.
The hope is that political certainty and a
clear direction of travel with Brexit will provide the catalyst for confidence
in the UK from foreign investors and UK consumers.
There are no guarantees, but having as much
clarity as possible moving forward can only help.
(4) Trumpeting America
There is another component to the UK economic
puzzle……The Trump. How could he not have his fingers in the UK pie!
After the EU, the US are our next biggest trade
partner by quite some margin. They are a big deal……which means The Trump is a
big deal when we leave the EU and need to negotiate a trade deal with Uncle
Sam.
Bizarrely, pursuing a full on trade deal with
The Trump (who would like to brag about progress ahead of his own elections
next year) may be seen as a way to get the best possible offer out of the EU.
This is a vitally important new reality for
BoJo as he needs to decide the trade-off between economic alignment with the EU
or economic alignment with the US.
Tricky decisions clearly and changing the UK's
trade stance is a process that will create winners and losers up and down the
country.
It’s Been A Bad December For……Option 1 –
Jeremy Corbyn
In the past 100 years, no opposition political
party has lost seats after 9 years in opposition. None. Labour will blame
Brexit but the reality is their leader was as useful as
a cat at a dog show.
Labour lost safe seats in the heart of old
mining communities to BoJo, such was the unappealing prospect of Jeremy Corbyn.
A horrible General Election for Labour. A
horrible General Election for Jeremy Corbyn.
It’s Been A Bad December For……Option 2 –
The Trump
Donald Trump has become only the third US
President to be impeached by the House of Representatives.
Democrats stating that the President is “a
clear and present danger to democracy”. Ouch.
It’s Been A Bad December For……Option 3 –
Electoral System
It is clear that the current make-up of constituencies
is broken. Over the years, the distribution of the country’s population has
changed significantly and readjustment is needed. To illustrate this, the
Conservatives won 43% of the votes yet won 56% of the seats.
There is talk that BoJo might address this
during his honeymoon period and reduce the number of MPs to around 600. Turkeys
voting for Christmas could be a hard sell though.
One thing is for sure, we need a more
appropriate voting system to reflect the needs of the UK going into 2020.
And Finally……
Since The Trump’s impeachment, his political
party has seen a sharp pick up in donations for his 2020 Presidential campaign
as his supporters rally around him. I have a funny feeling that the impeachment
could backfire for his opponents.
“There's no such thing as bad publicity except
your own obituary”, Brendan Behan
No comments:
Post a Comment