Let’s be really clear here……March is a riddle, wrapped in a conundrum, promising lots and offering nothing but contradictions. I like clear rules of the game……yet March simply hasn’t offered that.
Is it heating on or off?
Is it sit outside weather or do I need to
defrost the car? Wearing sunglasses and a winter coat at the same time is just way
too Italian for my liking.
Is it winter, spring or summer? It’s bright,
sunny and quite warm but raining a bit on and off and quite cold when the sun
goes in, with a chance of snow overnight. Eh?
Is it light or dark?
Exactly what coat am I meant to wear? It feels
like every coat I put on is simply the wrong coat for the weather – too hot,
too cold, not waterproof. How am I supposed to live like that? It’s wrong coat
season. Dress
for the sun……get punished by clouds. Dress for cold……the sun mocks you. The
classic optimism trap.
Flowers blooming bravely……then immediately
regretting it.
Birds sing like it’s paradise while the wind
tries to blow your wheelie bin into the next postcode.
I mean, March doesn’t even know from year to
year whether it’s offering Easter or not. What a mess.
My goodness, March hasn’t decided what time it is
either. I finish the month with mild jetlag from the time change.
Honestly, March is just winter and spring
fighting in public and I’m stuck in the middle holding a broken umbrella.
March is named after Mars……the Roman god of war.
How fitting given that March presented us with the riddle of a war in the Middle
East that we are definitely not part of but yet we seem to be, kind of, sort
of.
Enter stage right……April. Thankfully.
The Numbers
The financial fallout from the war in the
Middle East is already being keenly felt. For all the efforts to pursue
renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. When prices rise,
producers are winners, while users are out of pocket.
The Middle East remains the heart of supply,
the Strait of Hormuz its main artery. The impact of a de facto blockade and
attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like
Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard.
As customers seek alternative sources to the
Middle East, it's the likes of Norway and Canada who may gain. However, it is
likely that Russia could be the biggest winner as The Trump relaxes the rules
to ease the global supply crunch. Conservative estimates indicate that Russia will
earn up to $5 billion during March……its biggest year of fuel-related
revenues since 2022.
However, the UK is a buyer not a supplier and
the impact will be deep and wide ranging.
Government figures show that the country has
less than 900,000 tonnes of petrol in storage, 10% less than a
year ago and about 26 days of supply at normal demand levels. The UK has
12 days worth of gas in reserve, which is about 12% of what most
countries in the EU hold collectively. The UK simply don’t have reserves of
note.
A lack of storage means the UK has to take the
increased costs of a restricted supply on the chin. All energy prices are
likely to increase and that will put pressure on the cost of living across the
board. Inflation is in the post and it won’t be pretty.
The energy subsidy that the Government provided
to households after Russia invaded Ukraine cost £40 billion……but that’s unlikely
to happen again.
Inflation is now projected to average 4%
this year, up from the 2.5% predicted just 3 months ago. It would
make it the second-highest rate in the G7 behind the US.
All of this then leads into the UK facing the
biggest hit to economic growth out of the G20 major economies. GDP is now expected to
expand by just 0.7% this year (down by 0.5%). This would put the
UK second last in the G7 growth table.
Brace yourself……history shows most oil shocks
lead to recession and the subject is back in vogue with the ‘experts’ shoehorned
into media channels for guru-like opinion (rolls eyes with significantly raised
eyebrows). The latest flash Purchase Managers Index (PMI) gives a glimpse into
the ‘live’ picture for the UK economy…..with the index falling from 53.9
to 51.2 (anything above 50 is considered economic growth).
For those of you that don’t have a list of favourite
indices, don’t wear a cardigan and matching driving gloves, have a social life
and don’t struggle to make meaningful conversation that doesn’t involve a
fascination with The Trump……UK economic growth is quickly slowing down already.
(for the record, the PMI really is an
outstanding index……it’s in my top 3 and fully justified)
Too much bad news and want to get away? The
outlook for the travel industry is bleak as a barrel of Jet A1 fuel has risen
from $96 to $197 since The Trump flexed his orange muscles.
“Trumpflation” is surely an early contender to
be the Oxford University Press 2026 word of the year as it threatens to ravage
the UK economy, scupper the Chancellor’s claims of raising living standards and
force the Bank of England into interest rate rises this year.
Random numbers of the month……
Since becoming Prime Minister, Keir Starmer has
spent a sixth of his time abroad and completed 6 laps of the
earth. Keir
has visited 44 countries on 37 trips out of the country to attend
conferences, bilateral meetings and sports fixtures. During his first 17
months in office, Starmer has spent 2½ months abroad.
Concerning numbers of the month……
A Bank of England Report this month highlighted
that there has been a surge in 90% mortgages, triggering negative equity
fears. Nearly £22 billion was lent to buyers with a deposit of 10%
or less in 2025 (around 7% of all money lent for house purchases). This
was a 47% increase on 2024 and 104% more than the amount in 2023.
The last time it hit this level was in 2008……also the year of the banking
collapse. Anyone else getting a sense of déjà vu?
Favourite number of the month……3……the number
of sold out performances of Sister Act completed by the little lady (Sister
Mary Patrick in case you were wondering).
Trump of the Month
In any ordinary month, Dax Harkins (head of National
Savings & Investments) sacking after NS&I failed to pay out almost £500
million belonging to dead customers would have been a banker for the award.
But this month’s Trump of the Month could only
be given to…… Donald
John Trump.
And here we are with Iran. Apparently, we were
within days of Iran using a nuclear bomb……yet no evidence has been released and
his chief security adviser resigned in protest at the lies.
March has seen The Trump reach new heights in
contradictions. According to The Trump……
- Iran’s military has been obliterated and they
have no missiles left……yet they keep launching.
- The war is pretty much done and will end in a
few days……yet we are now in the second month.
- He’ll leave protecting and opening up the Strait
of Hormuz to other countries as the US doesn’t need it……yet thousands of US
troops are being sent to the area to get shipping restored.
- Iran has agreed to the US 15 point peace
plan……yet 2 weeks later the war continues.
The volley of verbal nonsense he offers up is daily
and seemingly made up on the hoof. The rest of the world picks up the pieces as
he shows little value for the humanitarian impact of his impulses from his
golden palace.
What an absolutely disgraceful mess.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Never interrupt your enemy when it’s
making a mistake”
Napoleon Bonaparte
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