The Month That Was……December 2021

We will not remember 2021 with great fondness, I suspect. A year in which we were supposed to shake off the coronavirus and return to something like normal turned out rather differently. We ended the year almost as we began it, amid great uncertainty.

Nothing quite says “Christmas festivities” like a variant of concern, the near constant threat of a Christmas lockdown and a dithering Government ignoring anything scientific to base their decisions on and choosing the least damaging option for their opinion poll rating. In the words of the great Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

Aside from all of the festivities, December is that period of the year when everyone has way too much time on their hands……and a lot of big questions get answered. Is it time to move house? Shall we have another child? Do I really want to spend another year with (insert name as appropriate)?  

For me though, it’s all about sweating the small stuff and spending a staggering amount of time trying to box off some of the completely irrelevant topics that consume my ‘way too active’ mind. Forget the festivities or spending quality time with a 7 year old filled to the brim with Christmas magic……it’s just not productive enough. The downtime is put to much better use in finally boxing off some key subjects.

For example……

- Panic stock piling lateral flow tests during a pandemic makes way more sense than toilet rolls. As a society, we are making some progress. Well, of sorts.

- “You better watch out.” Got it. “You better not cry.” These are pretty big ‘deal breakers’ for most kids.  Santa’s got a lot of nerve the way he’s making such huge demands of children. For me, a rethink is required to lower the tone.

- Windchill factor is an absolute joke. If it feels like 0 degrees, then it’s 0 degrees surely? It can’t be 10C but feel like 2C with the wind. Come on……we’re better than that. Another rethink required.

- Why is Matt Hancock staging a comeback and why are the media entertaining it? He is a bin fire of mismanagement and corruption……he’s not ABBA.

- When is a party not a party? When it really needs not to be a party in case someone gets in trouble.

I'm just glad Rishi Sunak didn't take Priti Patel's advice last year when she said people should snitch on their neighbours if they were having parties during lockdown.

- The Metropolitan Police say in relation to the Downing St Christmas party that they don’t investigate crimes retrospectively. That is literally the only way you can investigate crimes. Surely?

The other issue is that there was an “absence of evidence.” Well, yes. There isn’t any evidence yet……because you haven’t started investigating it. I’m no expert in these matters but I am fairly sure that No 10 must be one of the most CCTV-riddled buildings on the planet.

- Has Lorraine Kelly ever discovered something that isn’t “absolutely really fantastic” yet?

- Is it OK to body shame a Christmas Tree? How much must Norway hate us to send that thing?

 - In the UK, this is actually a sentence that makes sense: “Excuse me, sorry, do you mind if I just… thanks.”

- I grew up in a time when a stranger breaking into a lone woman's remote house and leaving some sub-par chocolate box for her was considered dashing. The ultimate romantic gesture. Simpler times before CCTV and video doorbells.

- The contactless card limit has now increased to £100. We really do live in an age of miracles……I can remember a time when it was just £25. The young cool kids simply won’t believe that. Just like they won’t believe that we used to get free toys in cereal. Mind blowing.

- Can we now move on from Elf on the Shelf……it’s been done and seems very last year. I’m all up for Andy Murray having a curry or Benedict Cumberbatch weeding the pumpkin patch. If you really push me, I would be fine with Jacob Rees-Mogg de-fleas a dog.

I’m sure you would agree that I have put the extra time off over the festive period to good use!

 

The Numbers

When future historians look back on it — certainly, economic historians — there will be a curiosity. Looking at the latest official figures published this month, economic growth in 2021 will be around 7% (give or take a decimal point or two). A big number that suggests an economic boom.

Yet, consumer confidence has faltered in the wake of Omicron, though it has not collapsed. Households have increased savings yet are facing a cost of living squeeze that will intensify with the huge increases in energy bills and tax increases due in April. People will not have the luxury of putting so much aside. Whether or not the great UK consumer can be relied on to spend through adversity will be one of the big questions for 2022.

Inflation will dominate the UK landscape for some time. The cost of living surged to 5.1% up from 4.2% the month before……a 10-year high. The International Monetary Fund predicted inflation would reach around 5.5% early this year, which seems very optimistic.  

Some 720 items are monitored to determine the inflation figure, with big variants across the range. Second-hand cars have risen 27.1%, fridge-freezers 10.3% and sporting event tickets 8.4%. On the other side, chocolate is up only 1.7%, beer 2% and museum entry 1.6%. Now the baking fad has passed, flour is down 10.3%.

To combat the level of inflation, The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favour to increase the base interest rate to 0.25%. This was the first rise in more than 3 years.

Is this really going to tackle surging inflation? For me, this will have no impact on inflation and will only hurt the economy at a time of uncertainty around Omicron.

Property has seen huge inflation through 2021, with house prices in the UK growing at the fastest pace in 15 years. Nationwide announced that house prices had risen 10.4% in 2021 and were 16% above pre-pandemic levels. This was powered by 1 in 16 homes changing hands in 2021!

The jobs market remains very buoyant, with the number of employees on payrolls rising to pre-pandemic levels as companies hired 257,000 in December, taking the total to 29.4 million. It seems hard to believe that the Government effectively employed 11 million people through furlough not that long ago.

Post-Brexit trade deals continue behind the scenes, with the latest confirmed with Australia. Official estimates have previously suggested that in the long run, it would produce an increase of 0.01% to 0.02% to UK GDP. This is partly because Australia accounts for only about 1.7% of UK exports and 0.7% per cent of imports. This was probably the reason there was no chest thumping from BoJo to announce it.

Elsewhere……the Conservatives lost their North Shropshire seat that they held for nearly 200 years. LibDem winner Helen Morgan overturned a Tory majority of almost 23,000. One for the attention of BoJo to reflect on.

 

Trump of the Month

We live in a time of such distrust in politicians that every breaking story of lies, corruption and greed is met with a mild eyebrow raise. We are punch drunk to it. It’s no longer a shock.

I really miss Theresa May. There…….I’ve said it. The lady I rallied against with anyone that would listen and whose premiership seemed to touch new lows of blank unmeaning. It feels all so different now. I’m overwhelmed with nostalgia for the permanent traffic jam that was her politics and leadership. Mrs May was the Imodium of modern British politics and I long for constipation at a time of political diarrhoea.

Which leads us perfectly to the Trump of the Month…… Jacob Rees-Mogg.   

The Mogg is being investigated by the Commons standards watchdog after being accused of breaching the rules for failing to declare £6 million in loans he received from one of his Cayman Island companies.

Which leads me to ponder some questions:

Why does an MP need to raise £6 million?

Why does he have a company set up in the ‘tax efficient’ Cayman Islands?

If the capital raising is due to financial trouble, is he in the right frame of mind to represent his constituency?

If the money is for business interests, does he have enough time to represent his constituency?

If he has not disclosed it through the right Parliamentary channels, does he possess the right moral compass to represent his constituency?

The series of loans began in 2018, so why has it taken 3 years to get to the point of investigating? Is there really that much of a backlog in questionable standards that need to be investigated?

And you can guess which MP it was that led the Government's failed attempt over Owen Paterson to change and reform the House of Commons Standards system that is now investigating Jacob Rees-Mogg! And he nearly got away with it!

Everything you need to know about why there is such distrust of MP’s in one story.

Come back Theresa and make it boring again!

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Don't raise your voice, improve your argument."                     

Archbishop Desmond Tutu

The Month That Was......November 2021

Climate change and MP second jobs have dominated this month’s press and media.

MP Owen Paterson stepped forward as this month’s Westminster pantomime villain with allegations of corruption from his second job. Aside from the media circus whipping us into a frenzy on this, a few things have stood out for me. 

Firstly, I've spent several years now watching MPs vote for legislation without them having the slightest idea what's in it. So I'm not massively sympathetic to the argument that they have time for a second job.

Secondly, Owen Paterson may only be the tip of the iceberg. Nearly 140 MPs worked other jobs in the past year. Does this not create natural conflicts of interest even for the innocent?

Thirdly, this is creating a part-time parliament given all of the second jobs being worked! Here’s a thought……just have the one job and do it amazingly well.

This story will rumble on as I fear there is more scandal to come.

The story of climate change will also rumble on. It has to. World leaders swept into Glasgow, disembarking from their carbon-chugging private jets (over 400 arrived) to discuss the evils of carbon-chugging machines and scoring political points.

But here is the key point. There is a great gap between the grand targets of international politics and footling measures such as turning off the tap when teeth-brushing. We need to be filled with clear Government advice so that we can make good choices with 50 years ahead in mind.

Those like me who do believe that something big needs to be done must be nudged, cajoled and incentivised in the most effective directions. I am a pretty obedient person……just tell me what I need to do and I’ll form good habits.  

There is one mission which the Government must put at the centre of its drive……shifting us from cars and planes onto trains. To have a hope of achieving net zero, we need to make the 21st century the new golden age of the railways. Our daily journeys account for a huge chunk of the nation’s CO2 emissions (27% in 2019). Among the non-bike options of trains, planes and cars, trains are by far the greenest. Hop on the Eurostar at St Pancras instead of taking the plane to Paris and you will cut more than 90 per cent of the emissions.

The environmental case for getting passengers back on track is clear, which is why Rishi’s budget decision to cut air passenger duty on domestic flights was absolutely baffling and cancelling the Leeds section of HS2 even more startling. It’s not as though air travel needs the advantage; journeys by rail already tend to be significantly more expensive.

The longer we delay action to reach net zero, the more likely it becomes we will need to achieve net negative to avoid catastrophic climate change. Even more likely is the need for political change soon to avoid this.

Sad and worrying times…..especially for a father of a concerned 7 year old.

The Numbers

The numbers were dominated by inflation this month as it hit 4.2%, the highest level in 10 years. In a bizarre twist, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, even apologised for the situation given that his remit is to keep the inflation ship steady at 2.0%.

You don’t have to look far to see costs spiralling.

- Petrol is now 150p a litre.

- Second hand cars have increased by 27% in the past 6 months.

- The cost of electricity is up 19% and gas 28%.

- House renovations have been hit by the cost of labour going up 20%, paint up by 10% and windows / doors using plastic up by around 13%.

- The price of savoury snacks has gone up 7.6% in the past 12 weeks.

Unfortunately, things will get worse before they get better as inflation is likely to go over 5.0% in coming months.

One of the key contributors to the inflation spike is a lack of available workers in the UK and job vacancies have reached a record high of 1.2 million.  

UK public sector net debt hit £2.3 trillion, equivalent to 95% of national income, a level not reached since the early 1960s.

The key issue for the public coffers is the rising cost of living, with inflation increasing interest payments on index-linked Government debt to £5.6 billion (an increase of £3.8 billion from a year ago).

In the US, Joe B signed a $1trillion infrastructure deal into law, taking the national debt close to $29 trillion. Which reminded me of the quote by John Adams: “There are two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.”  

Employers across the US hired 531,000 as recruitment within the world’s largest economy accelerated after months of disappointing growth. Unemployment fell to 4.6% and the number of jobless claims reached a 50 year low, exceeded expectations on Wall Street.              

China’s share of global carbon emissions has risen to a record level, accounting for over 30% of the total due to its increasing consumption of coal. Guess who didn’t show for Cop26!

Trump of the Month

November was a classic month in the life of BoJo as Prime Minister. He has bumbled his way through the month as an average after dinner speaker who has an extra glass of wine or two with lunch.

That’s fine if you are a guest on a TV talk show……not so great if you are in control of the UK.

But I don’t blame him……we all know what we’ve got with BoJo. I blame those that are tasked with keeping him on a straight path or at least promoting that he is on a straight path.

This month’s Trump of the Month is……BoJo’s advisors.

Such has been the number of own goals scored by BoJo, Sir Keir has moved into the lead in the opinion polls. Which is staggering given that he hasn’t done anything……it is the unintended consequence of not leading the opposition. That’s how bad BoJo is being portrayed.

Example 1

The month started with BoJo being pictured with Rishi messing about with beer kegs. Rishi announced in his budget that draught beer served from barrels of more than 40 litres would be subject to a 5 per cent tax cut starting in 2023. The problem was, what BoJo and Rishi were holding were too small to classify for the tax cut.

Example 2

BoJo spent days beating the environments drum but left Cop26 by private plane to fly back to London to attend a private Gentlemen’s Club dinner. It was merely a coincidence that it was swarming with party donors.

Example 3

Then there was the whole issue with MP Owen Paterson and the second job fiasco. In short, Paterson was earning £500 per hour to advise for Randox as a second job. Randox then wins a £133 million contract for Covid testing without any other firms getting chance to bid. Parliamentary Standards Committee cries foul play and announces it will suspend the MP.

A great opportunity for BoJo to score an open goal by condemning the behaviour. Instead BoJo orders his Tory friends to vote to change legislation to stop the suspension……until public outrage suggests he changes tact.

Example 4

HS2 was seen as key to a ‘northern powerhouse’ and levelling up the north. BoJo announces that a key part of the London to Leeds line will not be built. Levelling up you say?

Example 5

BoJo visited a hospital up north and decided it was sensible not to wear a mask. Remember it was BoJo who said people should use their common sense as to when they should wear a face covering. Judging by the photo, he felt it more important to protect his tie than the hundreds of vulnerable patients within the building. At least he is applying common sense though.

Example 6

In a 20 minute keynote speech to business leaders at the CBI Annual Conference, BoJo:

- compared himself to Moses

- pretended to be an accelerating car

- referred to himself in the third-person

- lost his place in the speech

- spoke about going to Peppa Pig World

I absolutely expect all of the above behaviour from BoJo. That’s who he is and we voted for it….it’s our fault. But I absolutely expect the gaggle of aides, advisors and political confidants to guide him on right / wrong and install a moral compass. At the very least to show him simple and effective PR skills.

I miss the days when the most shocking political story was when an MP dated a Cheeky Girl.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

"You can't get away from yourself by moving from one place to another."

Ernest Hemingway

The Month That Was……October 2021

Summer is over. Winter is terrible. Winter is Mamma Mia. Autumn is the trailer for Mamma Mia. Somehow the trailer contrives to con you that it might actually be mildly bearable but with a strong sense of existential dread at the horrors to come.

Or perhaps the horrors have already started in Autumn?

Facebook and Instagram were down for a day and you would have thought the world was going to explode. If that wasn’t enough, the country then went into meltdown over Bake Off’s first vegan baker using butter and eggs to make malt loaf.

Then a 151 page report was released telling us that BoJo was late to lock down, that test and trace ultimately failed and that vaccinations have been an astonishing success. I’ll leave you to ponder if it was merely a coincidence that BoJo scarpered off on holiday as the horror report into his handling of the Covid pandemic was released, leaving poor cabinet members to take one for the team.

Current covid numbers are a horror show and flu will shortly be hitting……yet systems and people feel so blasé about it. Just because we want it to be finished doesn't mean it is.

And let’s not get started on the whole petrol shortage fiasco. The Government told us that it wasn’t a shortage of petrol but a supply issue. It’s like saying to a diver that there’s not a shortage of air it’s just not in your tank. The simple fact is, you can’t say there’s not an issue with petrol and then call in the army!

We were also told that it’s got nothing to do with us leaving the EU……but remarkably they have no issues with fuel! Well, if it has nothing to do with leaving the EU then why are we relaxing Visa rules?

And just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, our broken sewerage system is dumping raw waste into our coastline. We are told that it will cost £600 billion of public money to fix but in 1988 we were sold the water privatisation dream on the basis that the industry would use private investment to fix it. After 30 odd years, it might now be the time to admit we have a broken model.

When the country desperately needs a serious, competent, honest Prime Minister, we basically have an after dinner speaker. James Bond seems the only civil servant we can rely on.

The Numbers

The backdrop to the numbers was dominated by the Budget this month. Now, I know I need to get out a little more but the Budget has been my Christmas since adulthood arrived. The rumours and anticipation before that delivery of gifts at the dispatch box……the best day of the year.

But it’s all changed this year. Rumours have been replaced by leaks of factual changes and there are few surprises by the time of the speech. It’s like opening Christmas presents when you know exactly what each gift is. You try to show forced joy and excitement but the feeling is flat.

Having said that, Rishi was suave and commanding and I hung on to his every word like my life depended on it. Has any man ever worn a suit better? Has any man ever been a more obvious choice for the next James Bond?

“Let there be no doubt that the plan is working. Today’s Budget delivers a stronger economy.” A bold statement from Rishi.

And the starting point……Rishi cancelled a planned increase in alcohol duty, which he says will cost a significant £3 billion! Is that a sensible fiscal priority?

There are the usual winners and losers but overall it was more generous than expected. It was a very broad ranging Budget speech, even getting into worldwide UK visa systems for immigration. It’s almost like he was trying to show he's positioning himself as the number one minister or ‘prime’ as some call it.

He announced that the UK economy is expected to recover to pre-Covid levels by the turn of the year, with GDP expected to rise by 6.5% this year and 6.0% in 2022.

Job vacancies soared to a record high of almost 1.2 million, according to official figures, as employers hunted for staff to meet shortages brought on by Brexit and the pandemic. At the same time, 1 million came off the furlough scheme. Furlough became the biggest UK peacetime intervention in the jobs market at a cost to taxpayers of £69 billion. The bill rises to £97 billion when grants to the self-employed are included in the calculation.

Petrol prices hit a record high of 142.94p for a litre of petrol……meaning that a typical family car costs about £15 more to fill up than a year ago. This was on the back of oil hitting $83 a barrel (a 3 year high). Rishi announced a fuel duty tax rise was cancelled (thankfully!).    

Inflation held steady at 3.1% but this doesn’t include recent energy price hikes. The Bank of England are predicting that inflation will top 5.0% in coming months and Rishi announced that it will average at 4.0% over the next year.

After the Government removed the earnings element of the ‘triple-lock’ guarantee, it means the basic State Pension will rise by 3.1% from April. This will still be the second highest increase for pensioners in a decade.

Elsewhere……

New car sales hit their worst level since 1998 by supply shortages. The figures were 44.7% down on the pre-pandemic 10 year average. Clearly the global shortage of computer chips has damaged the car sale sector massively.

The Road Haulage Association announced that there is a shortage of 100,000 drivers. The DVLA also announced that there is a backlog of 54,000 HGV licences waiting to be processed.

BoJo hailed his latest post-brexit trade agreement……with New Zealand. This amazing ‘chest thumping’ trade deal could boost UK economy by between 0.01% and - 0.01%. So it could boost the economy by a negative amount? What a win, this Government must be so proud. Terrific.

Trump of the Month

What a month to be alive……so many idiots and so much lunacy. I have genuinely found it difficult to reduce the volume of craziness to a short list. Many worthy and notable mentions……

The BBC news reported 263 deaths and 40,000 new covid cases……yet 2 minutes earlier labelled Rishi’s speech the “post Covid Budget.” 

Kwasi Kwarteng (Business Secretary) claimed on the BBC that he was in talks with Rishi for bailout support for companies with very high energy use. This prompted a stinging slapdown from the Treasury: “This is not the first time the Business Secretary has made things up in interviews. To be crystal clear, the Treasury are not involved in any talks.” Quite the record correcting!

Leaks form the ‘Pandora Papers’ show that Tony and Cherie Blair saved £312,000 in stamp duty when they bought a £6.45 million office in London in July 2017. The couple bought an offshore firm that owned the building rather than buying the building directly. And here’s the thing……no laws were broken. At a time when we are living with the constant threat of tax rises that go too far for many on low incomes, perhaps we should get our house in order before thinking about tax rises.

NatWest is facing a fine of more than £300 million after becoming the first British bank to be criminally prosecuted for money laundering failures. NatWest pleaded guilty to the charges brought by the Financial Conduct Authority and admitted to three criminal charges for failing to properly monitor a Bradford based gold dealer. NatWest accepted funds including £264 million in cash without doing proper anti-money laundering checks. NatWest is the UK’s biggest bank for business customers……and is still 55% owned by taxpayers. So congratulations, you are the owner of a criminal enterprise. A proud moment. 

Keir Starmer strutted around the Labour conference telling everyone to call him ‘Special K’……which is the street name for the illegal drug Ketamine. Blimey.

Appearing on the BBC, BoJo was questioned about his public health record. His response was absolutely amazing……

Even The Trump was in on the act when he launched his own social media platform called ‘Truth Social’. How ironic.

All are commendable and valiant efforts……but the Trump of the Month award goes to Jeremy Hunt.

Jeremy Hunt is Chairman of the Commons Health & Social Care Committee and produced the damning report this month on the Government’s handling of the pandemic. One of the key criticisms was that there was no contingency plan in place for the threat of a potential pandemic……and Jeremy Hunt was scathing on this point.

If you are going to be pointing the finger of blame, surely it should be at the Health Secretary in the preceding years leading up to the Covid outbreak.

Ladies and gentlemen……Jeremy Hunt was health secretary for six years between 2012 and 2018.

Insanity: an action that is stupid and likely to have extremely bad results.

No further questions your honour.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision.

Helen Keller