Thursday, 5 January 2023

The Month That Was……December 2022

The festive season is normally a time I like to fondly reflect on what’s gone before and what lies ahead……but all of that Christmas cheer has been ruined by my anger at this new ‘elf on the shelf’ tradition. Exactly who decided this and signed if off?

The challenge of finding a different hiding place each night. Not too easy to find…..but hard enough for the hiding game to last around 31.25 seconds at 6:30am every morning for an 8 year old. The pressure is immense……it’s a fine art……for 24 days in a row. It’s the ultimate Japanese endurance test.

What is this tyranny? Which sick individual gets to decide on making Christmas yet more expensive and yet more of a faff? Can anyone have a go? Can I have a go? Apparently, this ‘tradition’ dates from 2005 and the book by Carol Aebersold and Chanda Bell, which was sold with the toy. Yeah, great work guys.   

As it is, I’m only just getting over the ‘tradition’ of the ‘Christmas Eve box’, which is basically a box full of little gifts you give the day before and which is just taking the micky. It’s practically two Christmas Days now.

Perhaps my patience would be a little more charitable if I didn’t have to do my annual ‘traditional’ pilgrimage to fight with semi-naked Geordies for the briefest peak of the Fenwicks Christmas window having just about survived ‘traditional’ ice skating with semi-naked Geordies without breaking a bone. Just. 

Then there is the ‘traditional’ last minute scramble to find a solicitor working in the week before Christmas. If you and your partner have agreed “not to get each other anything” this year, then it’s really important to make sure you have something in writing. Got witnesses? Perfect. Make them sign something because there is no betrayal more brutal and no sensation more chilling than spotting something under the tree wrapped with your name on it just before you head to bed having not bought anything for that special someone. My biggest top tip for Christmas……quite simply, lawyer up.

And don’t get me started on the ‘tradition’ of Pantomime. Spending a fortune being ‘entertained’ by Z list celebs wheeling out endless double entendres that need awkwardly explaining to an 8 year old (my standard response after an hour was “ask Mummy”). And exactly how do I explain why the Z list man is dressed as a woman, why he / she has gigantic breasts and why mummy’s don’t make a ‘honk’ noise when squeezed as well. What a barmy ‘tradition’ and I blame Christopher Biggins whole heartedly.    

And while we are here……who decided that eating the smallest tub of ice cream with a small piece of wood for a fiver was a good idea as half time entertainment at the Panto?

And my reward? A ‘traditional’ festive hot chocolate bought from a glorified B&Q shed that took the skin off the roof of my mouth, left me sounding like Bruce Springsteen for a week and thoroughly disappointed by the lack of change from my £10 note. And just for the record……no, I do not want a shot of Bailey’s for an extra £4……ever. No festive hot chocolate should ever be priced more than a glass of warm flat champagne. Ever.     

And just when I thought faffing had reached full peak, I noted that Marco Pierre White was waxing lyrical that the perfect Christmas roast potatoes should always start with the potato peeled “from top to bottom”. Eh? Are the top and bottom marked? Have I just missed that all these years?

Ah yes. The magic of Christmas lives on.

The Numbers

When you look back on 2022, one thing sticks out like the proverbial sore thumb……inflation.

The return of inflation has been painful and all-encompassing. It has dominated economic and business decisions, leading to more interest rate rises in any year since 1988. The latest rise was a 0.5% increase to 3.5%, its highest level since early November 2008.

Although the latest figures for inflation show a fall in the annual rate from 11.1% to 10.7% and may indicate that we are past the peak, we will end the year with inflation in double figures. 12 months ago the Bank of England predicted inflation to peak at around 5% in spring. Ouch.

The more I read from the ‘experts’ on inflation forecasting, the more I feel that it is like driving blindfolded and taking directions from a back-seat passenger who is looking out of the rear window.

Inflation is a big deal. The cost of Government borrowing set new records at the end of 2022 as it is heavily linked to inflation. Then add in the cost of living payments pushing up Government costs at the same time tax revenues dropped. The public purse was squeezed further as Liz Truss’s (remember her?) reversal of the 1.25% in National Insurance contributions lowered tax revenues.

Not a good festive cocktail to drink……£7.3 billion was paid in interest on Government debt last month, up from £4.9 billion in the same month last year.

When you open your next energy bill, how will you feel about BP’s profits that have more than doubled to $8.2 billion in the last quarter of 2022? They actually made about $3 billion in profits from just gas trading in only three months as it cashed in on the global scramble for liquefied natural gas after Russia cut pipeline supplies to Europe. There are clearly winners in this energy crisis!

The big Government announcement last month was Big Bang II……what it describes as the “biggest overhaul of financial regulation for more than three decades”. It is essentially a package of more than 30 reforms that will "cut red tape" and "turbocharge growth". Or to put that another way……allows banks to make money far more easily.

We’ve tried ‘unleashing the City’s potential’ before. It didn’t end well. Between 2007 and 2009 the then-Labour Government spent £137 billion of public money to bail out banks. Overall, taxpayers have lost £36.4 billion on those bailouts (according to the Office for Budget Responsibility). That’s a pretty big lesson we really should learn from!

If there is one story last month that highlights banks needing stiff regulation, consider this……34.3% of Starling Bank’s pandemic bounceback loans are in danger of default. Who would have thought that poor due diligence on the borrower at outset would contribute to problems later down the line? Amateur banking at best.

Our sacred property market looks a little fragile at the moment. Buyers and sellers have gone into hiding as prices fall. Falling house prices won’t stimulate the housing market as long as people are concerned about high mortgage rates and the cost of living. Nationwide data reveals the drop in house prices last month was the biggest since February 2009 (excluding the pandemic lockdown of May-June 2020). House prices are now 2.5% below the peak in August, with the average house price almost £10,000 cheaper.

And finally……how do we all collectively feel about BoJo making more than £1 million from four speeches since leaving Number 10? That’s quite a reward for failure. 

 

Trump of the Month

I am not even going to pretend there is a worthy candidate to rival this month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award……Steve Barclay. 

 

The Health Secretary (Secretary of State for Health & Social Care if we want to be formal) has the key responsibility for the oversight of England’s NHS and England’s Social Care policy. That’s it.

When you are the fifth Health Secretary in 18 months, you need to have the realisation that those that have gone before you didn’t have the courage to solve the problems. That then turns into a nasty legacy that we are witnessing now……one in eight beds in NHS hospitals are occupied by older people who are well enough to be discharged but can’t be because there isn’t a social care place for them. Is it any wonder that we have all read stories of people waiting in A&E for days to be allocated a bed.

Until our broken care system is fixed, the NHS will be swimming with a millstone around its neck, with predictable consequences for patients and staff. Applying a plaster or two and then moving on is no longer acceptable on any level. Find the political will and bravery to address the mess.

Clear leadership is what is required……yet how many of us knew that Steve Barclay is the Health Secretary even after 3 months in the role?

(for reference, I had to ‘Google’ it)

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm”

Publilius Syrus

Thursday, 1 December 2022

The Month That Was……November 2022

November 2022 was quiet to the point of being muted. Not silent……just, well, quiet. Yes there was the noise of the Budget (where there were no winners) and the sounds of a gloomy Bank of England forecast……but it was a vanilla month of ‘normality’. No change in Prime Minister. A Chancellor that survived a second month. No financial crisis caused by a political whim. No investigation into the conduct of the latest tenant at Number 10. It seems the start of the new ‘vanilla’ norm.

Once in a lifetime events seem to have happened regularly and dominated our normal living. My daughter is 8 and so far she has lived through some huge events for us to deal with.

Brexit

Trump

Pandemic

School closures

War in Europe

Energy crisis 

Record inflation

Record Heatwave

3 US Presidents

5 Prime Ministers (and counting)

Death of a Monarch

New King

The Liz Truss Experiment

My football team getting relegated twice

But November was quiet and I’m not sure I like it. Where do I vent my frustrations now? Who do I blame for a lack of eggs……my latest grocery shopping bill……the delay to my latest online order? I’m a little lost and have no obvious target.

Perhaps the biggest issue is that it gives my mind some free capacity to explore the frustratingly unimportant problems in day to day life. You know, those critical unimportant things that bug you to the point of frustration. My latest critical unimportant annoyance is our change of language:

When did haulage become logistics? Who signed that off? Probably the same person that allowed  working in a bar to become hospitality and problems to became challenges. Who was given permission to change work mates to colleagues and Personnel to Human Resources? And while we’re at it……I was perfectly happy with Opal Fruits not Starburst and Marathon not Snickers. Who in their right mind changed drinking water to hydrating? And just for the record, it’s a shop not retail and a series is not a season.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

You see Rishi, you’ve caused me this anguish. This is the damage that sensible, predictable and boring politics has done to my mental free capacity. Come on Rishi, it’s time for the next political hand grenade……I mentally can’t handle another month of debating the critical unimportant annoyances.

 

The Numbers

I love this quote from Sam Ewing:

“Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair."

Which is a perfect backdrop for the Bank of England position this month in which higher interest rates and recession are inevitable until inflation subsides.

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.75%, the most in 33 years. Interest rates are now expected to rise from the current 3% today to 4.75% in coming months.

The really grim news is that the Bank of England expects the UK to be in recession until the middle of 2024. Dire……especially given the hopes for a post Covid bounce. In its outlook for the UK economy, it said the country would face a "very challenging" two year slump and unemployment will nearly double. The recession is expected to knock 2.9% off the size of the economy, which is less than half of the 6.3% that followed the financial crisis.

Until we realign ourselves to our biggest and closest trading partner, our economy will always suffer. You simply cannot pull up a draw bridge to the EU and expect to prosper.

The interest rate rise was an effort to combat inflation, which hit 11.1% (a 45 year high). A sustained increase of 1% in inflation and interest rates adds roughly £20 billion to the Government annual debt interest bill, according to the OBR. Its new projections for the Government’s debt interest payments make eye-watering reading and set the tone for the Budget.

It was never going to be a rosy Autumn Statement……and on that Jezzer truly delivered. The freeze on income tax thresholds will be extended to 5 years, effectively dragging millions more people into the higher-rate tax bracket (which started at £50,271).

There was plenty of grief for households in general. While the Government will extend its energy price guarantee from next April, it will be less generous. The average household bill will be £3,000 a year from April, which is almost 3 times what it was only 12 months ago and 20% more than we pay now. For context, it would rise to £4,245 without the subsidy.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, Jezzer also revealed that councils will be allowed to hike up their council tax by 5% without a local referendum.

So energy bills: up. Council tax: up. Mortgage rates: up. Tax bills: up.

This will hurt the vast majority. In fact, it will see the biggest fall in living standards since records began, with the tax burden set to hit the highest level since the Second World War. But we have one thing at least……certainty. We now know which policies are going to go ahead and where the axe will fall.

Tough times lie ahead, but we now know where the land lies and we know what we are playing with.

 

Trump of the Month

My goodness there were some pretty solid candidates for Trump of the Month in November 2022.

In any other month David Beckham would have been a shoe-in. What was he thinking becoming an ambassador to the Qatar World Cup? It can’t be the £10 million fee he received surely? Is he really that desperate? The Qatar World Cup is already looking pretty putrid if the death toll for migrant workers, the recent rape and jailing of a gay tourist and the appalling human-rights record weren’t enough. 

It was a different story in September when David Beckham was a national treasure due to his remarkable feat of queueing up with non-famous people outside Westminster Hall to pay his respects to the Queen. How much nobility we saw in him — wearing a hat, standing on his legs, like a ‘normal’. Now, I wonder if Beckham just got into that line by accident while looking for a Costa. 

And don’t get me started on Matt Hancock. It’s going to take a lot more than eating a sheep’s vagina for £400,000 for me to forgive bunking off work to fly 10,000 miles to appear on a fatuous reality TV show, the Covid-19 care homes scandal, the PPE shambles and being caught on camera breaking his own rules with an extra-marital affair. A lot more.

But this month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award is……Gavin Williamson. 


He was a failed Defence Secretary who was widely mocked for saying during the fallout of the 2018 novichok attack in Salisbury that Russia “should go away and should shut up”. His suggestions to solve equipment shortages, such as fitting tractors with guns and arming Gibraltarians with paintball rifles, were met not so much with mockery but with weary bemusement. He was then shuffled off to the back benches.

He was then the Education Secretary when the Government struggled to deal with the effect of Covid on schools and in particular how to deal with pupils whose education was disrupted during exam years. U-turn followed u-turn and he was then shuffled off to the back benches leaving a trail of destruction.

After two huge political failures, he was nominated by BoJo for a knighthood (which he was awarded in March 2022). Yeah, good one Boris.

Williamson supported Rishi in his two attempts to become Conservative leader……and was awarded a Cabinet position as Minister of State without Portfolio as a reward. This month Williamson was pushed / resigned under much pressure due to allegations of him bullying over a number of years.

Gavin Williamson would be a worthy winner in any month. How he is even an MP let alone a Cabinet member is beyond me……he’s been sacked by three prime ministers.

Gross incompetence being rewarded time after time.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“The older I get, the more I admire and crave competence — just simple competence — in any field, from adultery to zoology.”

Henry Louis Mencken