The Month That Was……October 2026

The big story dominating economic and investment markets is the mid-terms in the US. The biggest and most powerful economy in the world is about to give a huge vote of no confidence to the (self-proclaimed) most powerful person in the world. If you believe all you read, The Trump is going to get battered.

The important political point is that Presidents with approval ratings below 40% have historically tended to see significant congressional losses. The Trump’s rating is currently 30%. Wow.

That figure stopped me in my tracks for a moment……that means 3 in 10 Americans approve of his Presidential performance thus far. Simply staggering.

The bigger point here is what happens when you lose the mid-terms. Well, nothing automatically happens and The Trump will stay in office for another 2 years. What changes is his ability to govern freely.

If (when) The Trump loses the Senate (100 members), the opposition will have sufficient seats / votes to block judicial appointments, delay or reject cabinet nominees and make it much harder to shape the federal courts.

If (when) The Trump loses the House of Representatives (435 members), the opposition will have sufficient seats / votes to stop laws being passed, have control of budgets and can begin investigations.

And it is the final point that is controlling the narrative in the media……investigations into The Trump become far more viable and likely. It is this issue that has become an obsession with The Trump and one that has shaped his actions this year.

The media love a good investigation……and losing the mid-terms is likely to see the US investigating and probably suing / impeaching its most powerful person. It’s as juicy a story as it can get for the media and they will feast on it.

However, scratch beneath the surface and there is plenty to be quietly happy about. Since the US Civil War era, a sitting President's party has almost always lost seats in the House of Representatives during mid-term elections. Political scientists often describe it as one of the most reliable patterns in American politics. In fact, there are only 3 exceptions to this……Franklin D. Roosevelt (1934), Bill Clinton (1998) and George W. Bush (2002) in the last 90 years. The President almost always loses the mid-terms. It’s the norm.

But what we will get if history repeats itself is a lame duck presidency……no power to pass anything The Trump wants. Every major policy becomes a negotiation and The Trump can no longer assume he can pass legislation.

When you have somebody so radical and unpredictable as The Trump, losing the mid-terms would reduce power and remove some level of uncertainty. I don’t think we can ever achieve certainty with The Trump in power……but reducing uncertainty can only be a good thing for world order.

Polling on Tuesday 3^rd November will just be Page 1 of the next chapter……it will be a captivating story. 

The Numbers

The Budget dominated the numbers this month, which was Labour’s 3^rd attempt and 1^st for John Healy since becoming Chancellor of the Exchequer in July 2026.

Plenty in Westminster across all political parties will agree that how well taxpayer money is spent and where it is spent matters most.

In the bones of many in the Labour Party is an instinct that the Government can and should be a vital agent in driving change and improvements in people's lives. A view grounded in a sense that Governments should proudly step in rather than get out of the way.

So, how do you proactively deliver for people in a noticeable way……when the tax burden is generationally high, the national debt is sky high, energy bills are rising and inflation is higher than expected?

If you are not brave, then the answer is obvious……you don’t tackle it. The cocktail of small changes in the Budget reflected this……with little sign of tackling the big stuff.

The ‘smorgasbord’ of announcements:

- An extra £14 billion per year will be needed to cover public debt interest compared with forecasts made earlier this year due to the increased borrowing costs attributed to the Middle East conflict.

- The VAT cut on electricity bills will be extended to July, taking £50 off the annual price cap. Households in council tax bands A-D will also receive a £100 household energy payment (around 20 million households).

- The national living wage for those aged 21 and over has been increased by almost 4% to £13.20 an hour, from £12.71. The minimum wage, which applies to those aged 18 to 21, rose to £11.27, from £10.85.

- The full state pension will rise by 3.9%, taking it to £13,036 from April.

- Cash ISA allowance will now stay at £20,000 as the planned cut to £12,000 is dropped.

- Savings and property income tax is to rise to 24%, 44% and 49% from April 2027 (depending on the income tax band that an individual falls into).

- A new Pension Tax Allowance is to start in April 2027 to combat the number of people paying income tax on the £13,036 State Pension.

- The bank corporation tax surcharge rises from 3% to 6% for 15 months.

- A First Time Buyer ISA is planned for April 2029 (replacing the Lifetime ISA for new savers) allowing contributions of up to £4,000 a year, with a 25% Government bonus paid on the value of the account when funds are withdrawn for a qualifying first home purchase.

And that was that. It is not honest politics nor honest economics. John Healey got his can and gave it an almighty kick down the road until after the next General Election. I wonder if Labour have the cajónes to call an early election?

Economic number of the month…..

Inflation reached 3.5%, the highest level for 11 months.

Banking number of the month…..

The banking sector has contributed almost £48 billion in taxes to the Treasury this year (a record).

Government spending number of the month……

The big four accountancy firms (Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC) have won £1.5 billion of public sector contracts so far in 2026, the second highest since records began.

Favourite number of the month……1-2-1……the netball aspiring little lady having 60 minutes with her hero!

Trump of the Month

Given the usual mix of head-shaking buffoonery by the ‘orange one’ across the water, this month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award is a commendable performance. Congratulations……

Zack Polanski.

The Green Party leader had an exceptionally turbulent October due to two separate political stories colliding at the same time.

Firstly, he made a high stakes gamble by standing in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election, triggered by the resignation of former PM Keir Starmer. The issue was not finishing second in the by-election……Polanski was too focused on the by-election campaign instead of the Green Party conference…… which was debating a highly controversial motion declaring Zionism a form of racism.

Now, for absolute clarity…… not all Jews are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish. But because the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is deeply intertwined with Zionism, the Green Party in their wisdom thought that this was the hot topic to be debating and voting on. Why not just stick to the apples you know……like saving the planet.

What an absolute mess. Zack Polanski spent October like a man who left a kitchen fire to go and buy a smoke alarm.

He actually did pretty well in the high-profile by-election……only to look over his shoulder and discover that the biggest story involving his party was happening back at the conference he'd effectively left unattended.      

Polanski strode confidently into the by-election to show that the Green Party was ready for the big leagues. Unfortunately, while he was knocking on doors in Holborn, his party conference was busy manufacturing enough headlines to keep political journalists fed through winter.

 The result was a political misfortune right out of The Trump playbook……doing something reasonably well, whilst creating a storm that everyone talks about instead.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“"All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure."

Enoch Powell