July 4th it is then.
Rishi stood outside Downing Street in the pouring rain to announce the General Election. He looked dead-eyed and defeated. He couldn’t even organise an umbrella in a downpour. I genuinely felt more than a little sorry for him. Clearly, I really let myself down.
All over Westminster there are hundreds of people who are frothing at the mouth with anticipation of the forthcoming duel. Wonks. Journalists. Lobbyists. MPs (mainly non-Tory ones!). They love the fight, the game, the speculating. You sense they are actually aroused.
They wait in deep undergrowth for someone on the front line to say something which contradicts the party line……or for a backbencher to appear on a phone-in and not know the price of a pint of milk. Then that’s it……they pounce with delirious glee.
I usually care about a General Election. It’s a big deal. And I certainly cared about the Brexit referendum……and still do! But some of the magic is gone this time around. The simple truth is that you can vote for a party that’s useless by accident.
The last General Election was held in December 2019 when BoJo was Prime Minister. Nobody voted for the shambles that we’ve endured since then. Or for Liz Truss. Or for Rishi.
It’s also unlikely that it will change your life in any way, shape or form.
Whoever wins will be prevented from making the changes they want by the world’s financial markets……and (hopefully) common sense. Just ask Liz Truss what happens when you lack any kind of sense.
In theory whoever wins the general election has the power to make changes but only in the same way that they have the power to drop a nuclear bomb on Luxemburg. It’s not actually going to happen.
The fact is that we will be treated to a bombardment of promises and polls in the coming weeks……all of which will be a good spectator sport. But it doesn’t really matter who wins because the pot holes will continue to make you swear, the trains will continue to be where hope goes to die, the NHS waiting lists will continue to be horrific, small boats will continue to arrive, HMRC will still take over an hour to answer a call, energy bills will continue to land on the doormat and we’ll all moan about paying taxes.
Instead, the more pressing concern is the increasing wave of people calling the election “Genny Lec”. Stop it. It’s just wrong. Just how much time are you actually saving by shortening it? Stop it now.
The Numbers
Hidden in the news this month was the announcement that we are officially out of recession.
GDP grew by 0.6% after two quarters of declines……the fastest rise for 2 years.
- Services grew by 0.7%
- Production grew 0.8%
- Construction fell 0.9%
Despite this, the UK economy will be worst performing in G7 next year, according to the economic think tank, OECD. Their GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 do not make pretty reading.
The main headlines were dedicated to inflation news, which fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly 3 years to 2.3% (down from 3.2% the previous month). UK inflation is now lower than US (3.4%) and the Eurozone (2.4%).
And with the classic comedy timing of a Monty Python sketch, Rishi entered from stage right to inform all that……“the plan is working”. Rishi also talked of people "feeling the benefit" of lower inflation. Yet lower inflation still means rising prices on top of previous high rises.
2 years ago when Rishi was Chancellor he made a speech to CBI saying he can’t stop inflation, as clamour was growing at the time to provide help for poor. And yet he popped up this month to claim he’s an economic magician. Inflation’s down but we will live with its legacy for years to come.
And just as night follows day……speculation on interest rate cuts ramped up a notch.
The International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast that the Bank of England has room for 3 interest rate cuts this year. The debate now is when not if. June (less likely) or August. The current level of 5.25% (a 16 year high) is clearly above the pain threshold for many and reductions can’t come quick enough.
Perhaps the bigger economic news for the ‘world’ was the US Federal Reserve announcing that US interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer as price pressures will see inflation not falling back to the 2% target in the near term. At its latest policy meeting, the world’s most powerful central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 5.25% to 5.50% range for the 9th consecutive month.
Spare a thought for Argentina……inflation is currently running at 289%!
The lowering of inflation and increasing prospect of interest rate falls has pushed business confidence to its highest point in nearly a decade. According to Lloyds Bank’s latest business barometer index (my fourth favourite index), confidence climbed to its highest level since November 2015, up by 8 points to 50%. The data indicated that companies were growing increasingly optimistic about their trading prospects and were keen to hire more workers after grappling with rising interest rates and elevated inflation for the past two years.
Elsewhere……the Covid inquiry (remember that?) is on track to becoming the most expensive in history, costing the taxpayer at least £300,000 a day over the last year. The investigation into the pandemic has been running for almost 2 years and has spent almost £70 million in the last financial year. In total, the inquiry has cost the taxpayer £94 million so far. It is not expected to produce its final report until the end of 2026, suggesting it is on track to cost about £200 million in total. This would surpass the £195 million spent on the inquiry into the deaths of 13 people on Bloody Sunday (which lasted 12 years).
My favourite number of the month……2……coming second out of 20 teams in a regional netball tournament.
Trump of the Month
The Trump of the Month award was always designed to acknowledge the crazy and lunatic behaviour of those in power that we trust to run the many different facets of, well, the world.
You know the sort of stuff…..
The Trump suggesting drinking bleach to ward off covid. Crazy.
Bojo shaking hands with anyone within a 3 mile radius to show how safe body contact is at the start of a pandemic. Lunatic.
Giving Liz Truss the keys to Number 10. Mental.
Letting Matt Hancock write social distancing rules, repeatedly tell the little people to obey and then break them without regret with an extra marital affair. Mad.
Suella Braverman banning tents for the homeless as they have made a “lifestyle choice.” Insane.
One constant throughout the years has been The Trump’s consistent lunacy across all aspects of his personal and public life. Not just one off acts here or there……consistent acts that leave us all feeling smug that perhaps we do have our lives in order after all.
The latest twist in The Trump’s life sums up his craziness in one beautiful example.
The Trump had an extra marital affair with an ‘adult actress’. Hush money was paid to keep the ‘adult actress’ quiet so that the story doesn’t come out during The Trump’s run for the Whitehouse. The hush money was paid from business accounts for made up services for a lawyer. The lawyer is found guilty of fraud and serves time in prison.
Fast forward a number of years……The Trump is accused of 34 charges ranging from accountancy fraud to rigging a Presidential Election. He of course denies it and calls it a political witch hunt.
The adult actress and the lawyer are key witnesses in the resulting court case. 12 jurors deliberated for two days before reaching a unanimous verdict that The Trump is guilty on all counts.
The Trump is officially a criminal.
Speaking outside the courtroom, The Trump condemned the Judge as “corrupt and a devil” and “this was a rigged, disgraceful trial.” He has promised to appeal the decision, which will delay his sentence until after the Presidential election. Cunning.
The Trump is the first former US President with a criminal conviction and the first major party candidate to run for the White House as a felon.
The US Constitution sets out relatively few eligibility requirements for Presidential candidates……they must be at least 35, be a natural born US citizen and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.
The craziest thing #1: There are no rules blocking candidates with criminal records and The Trump thinks it is still completely acceptable to run for Presidency as a criminal. “The real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people,” he confidently cried.
The craziest thing #2: The Trump campaign raised a total of $52.8 million in the 24 hours following the criminal conviction……a third of the donations coming from new donors.
The craziest thing #3: The Trump took to social media to exclaim “IF THIS CAN HAPPEN TO ME, IT CAN HAPPEN TO ANYONE!” Really? I’ll remember that the next time I cheat on my third wife with an adult actress and have to pay her off because I’m running for President.
The Trump of the Month award for May 2024 could only go to……The Trump.
Sheer madness.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“In a mad world only the mad are sane.”
Akira Kurosawa
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