The Month That Was……April 2024

April is always a big month in my household. Always a time of excitement, reflection and the dawning of a new chapter. That’s what the end of one tax year and the beginning of another brings. There is no other month like it.

Oh, and it’s also my daughter’s birthday. 

Just like the respect I show tax year end, I also take my responsibility to raise a curious 10 year old seriously. That’s the way I roll.

Her birthday made me pause and ensure that the life lessons we were given as children are now passed to the next generation to then hand on. You know the ones:

- Don't go out with wet hair or you'll catch your death.

- If you make a face and the wind changes it will stay like that.

- Hot tea bags will set the bin on fire.

- Always wear clean underwear in case you get knocked down by a bus (I still live by that).

- If you swallow your chewing gum it will take 7 years to digest.

- Having the interior light on while driving is illegal.

- Watching the TV for too long will give you square eyes.

- Kissing a member of the opposite sex makes your teeth fall out.

- If you swallow the pips in an apple, a tree will grow out of your head.

- If you eat your crusts you’ll get curly hair and if you eat your carrots you’ll be able to see in the dark.

- You will get cramp and drown if you go for a swim within 3 hours of eating a meal.

- She's the cat's mother.

All are an absolute pack of lies but yet all are vital lessons in raising a 10 year old properly.

The baton of lies has been passed.

 

The Numbers

The big number for investment markets (and that means pensions / investments for millions) was the FTSE 100 stockmarket growing to above 8,000 for its highest position in history.

London’s blue-chip index has risen to a new record high on the back of fading concerns about an escalation in Middle East tensions and the expectation that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates earlier than planned.

Fading Middle East tensions broadly means that we are less concerned about the impact of rising oil prices now. It’s never been about the cost to humanity……it’s always been about keeping oil affordable. After a 21% increase in oil since November, prices have started to fall and ease the economic concerns.  

Inflation figures highlighted the pace of consumer price growth in the UK economy fell to 3.2% from 3.4% in the previous month, the lowest level in 2½ years.

Ever the economically illiterate, our great Chancellor took to media channels to announce, “The plan is working; inflation is falling faster than expected and helping people’s money go further.”

Right Jezza, let’s make this clear for the (insert number of your choice – I’ve lost count) time……

Firstly, you don’t have a plan for inflation. You never did. You have absolutely no control over inflation. The Bank of England holds all control and they are independent of Government. Just like you couldn’t stop inflation rising to 11.1%......you can’t get inflation to the target of 2%. The plan can’t be working as you don’t have one.

Secondly, the price of goods is rising by 3.2%. Yes the rise isn’t as severe as 11.1% but it is rising. That means things cost more. If things cost more, then this doesn’t help people’s money go further. Actually, they have less.

This is basic economics.    

Anyway, on the back of the inflation data the International Monetary Fund (the IMF to you and I) announced that it expected the Bank of England to lower the base rate from the current 5.25% to 4.6% by the end of the year……and this got plenty of people excited.

In addition, the Eurozone, our biggest trade partner, also seems to have inflation under control with the latest fall to 2.4%. This is the lowest rate for 2 years, raising the pressure on the European Central Bank to become the first major authority to cut interest rates this year.

If debt costs less, then businesses will make more money. If debt costs less, then consumers will have more disposable income to spend or can borrow at lower rates to spend what they don’t have.

Whilst the FTSE 100 is meant to be about the value of the largest listed companies in the UK, the reality is that it provides a forward measure of confidence. Or to put that another way……do economic conditions look better or worse in 6 – 9 months.

The current cocktail of inflation being under control to the point of interest rates likely to fall and Middle East tensions stabilising (or at least not escalating) looks appetising……causing the FTSE 100 to get excited.

Whilst rising energy prices and disruption to international shipping seems only a news report away, the current economic picture does look encouraging.

In the US, spare a thought for the jurors for The Trump court case in New York. 60 of the 96 potential jurors were discounted as they declared that they could not be impartial on the hush-money / porn star / business fraud case. I’m dumbfounded that 36 people believe they can act without prejudice……which I guess will add fuel to the ‘witch hunt’ narrative that The Trump peddles. 

Elsewhere, my own favourite number of the month…… 5,644……the number of metres my wife climbed at Kala Patthar at a 50% oxygen level to see the sunrise over Mount Everest.  

 Trump of the Month

The Trump rolled into court this month to defend falsifying business records to conceal a hush-money payment to ‘adult actress’ Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election (which he then won). He faces 34 charges stemming from an alleged $130,000 payment made.

The Trumps lawyers launched three unsuccessful appeals in as many days in an attempt to push back the start of the trial until after the November Presidential elections.

Tax evasion……falsifying business accounts……sex allegations……all very damaging for any Presidential nominee. But yet, we shrug our shoulders and kind of accept that’s who he is. No real surprise any more.   

For anybody else, they would have been a shoo-in for the Trump of the Month award. But the award this month goes to…… William Wragg.

The story relates to Conservative MP William Wragg who has sent nude photos to someone he met on a dating app. He was then blackmailed into handing over the phone numbers of further colleagues. Saucy messages were then sent to these colleagues from either “Abi” (to straight men) or “Charlie” (to gay men) attempting to cajole them into sending nudes back for more blackmail opportunities. It’s called ‘spear phishing’ apparently.

Up to 20 Government advisers and ministers have admitted to then engaging in inappropriate messages……and that number is based on those who’ve admitted to it. I think we can safely assume the real number is much higher.

Randomly, Willy was praised by the Chancellor for being “brave” (I was thinking stupid, but hey-ho) and he then promptly resigned as vice-chairman of the 1922 Committee. How very Tory.

The information that MPs responded to nude photographs, sent by someone they didn’t know, by sending nudes back is more than a little disturbing. I would (perhaps) be a little more understanding if this had happened to a gormless 14-year-old……but this happened to the adults who are supposed to be running the country.

Actually, it’s more than a little disturbing.

Firstly, (and call me old fashioned) but I’d quite like those in the House of Commons to be running the country rather than trying to take pictures of their genitals in a 900 year old building offering unflattering light (the House of Come-Ons anyone?).

Secondly, there is a credible suggestion that this ‘spear phishing’ exercise might well have been the action of an enemy state. In other words, Iran, China or Russia now think so little of Britain that they’re not bothering with spies, terrorists or double agents. Instead, they’re just collecting a back catalogue of winkies as this is all it takes to control the UK. And it’s worked.

Is there any point in Britain being, at great expense, one of the world’s nuclear powers if our security levels are only down to how bored some minister is on a Tuesday evening with a camera phone?

Thirdly, it appears that all of the impacted are men. We, once again, need to raise the question of whether men should be in a position of power? I think there’s a very strong case for all future ministers being women. It takes the willy pictures completely out of the equation. Simple.

Problem solved……but what absolute lunacy.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them.”

Ernest Hemingway