And here we are again.
The “reasonable worst case scenario” of infection rates was presented to the public at the end of September when the growth in cases was low and the death rate even lower. Too many people refused to believe such a prophecy. It turns out that they were wrong and the situation looks much worse than feared for the next few months. And here we are again.
I think everyone was surprised by the sudden, rather scary announcement that came on Halloween. Not surprisingly, the news was all trick and no treat. Welcome to Lockdown 2.0.
The first version in spring felt very different from what’s happening this autumn. Last time the roads were deserted, children were kept indoors, tumbleweed blew down the streets and no one made eye contact in the park.
Now, despite the dank, dark days, the streets and roads are busy, restaurants serve takeaways and pubs pour click-and-collect pints. My dentist and optician emailed within hours of the lockdown announcement to say opening hours would remain the same. The elderly are popping out to buy a loaf, get their daily exercise and have a distanced chat in the supermarket aisles. Artisan Sourdough is served at the local deli as it is deemed ‘essential’, yet shops selling school shoes are not.
Us Brits aren’t turning to violence or rioting (we’ll leave that to the French, Spanish and Italians), we are just reinterpreting the rules as we see fit.
I guess this seems a rational, sane development. The public have become better at understanding risk and analysing data. Mask-wearing is embedded and no one shakes hands, but people are meeting for walks, coffee in the street and tea by the kitchen door with a neighbour. We are recalibrating what families need to do to protect mental and physical health while trying to minimise the risk of spreading Covid by staying outdoors.
It’s because people can’t sustain a perpetual state of fear and have learnt to rationalise the risks for themselves rather than listening to BoJo talking in metaphors, thumping his chest and shouting about the “toot of the bugle” (what was that about by the way?). Increasingly, people make their own judgments and assessments and are mindfully worried rather than mindlessly fearful.
This rehashed, reheated lockdown may feel grim but in some ways it’s as encouraging as the vaccine developments this month. Far from reflecting a selfish nation it shows we are beginning to take responsibility, think for ourselves and work out our own ways of minimising the pandemic while trying to remain sane, healthy and economically stable. Lockdown 2.0 might end up being one of those rare sequels that is more sophisticated and nuanced than the original.
We're still in some very dark woods……let’s hope that the news of the vaccines now has a path to lead us out of them.
I entered my own dark wood recently for a boggy shuffle through autumn’s mud. Lockdown 2.0 has been an invitation to increase my bow legged limp shuffling that I loosely describe as ‘running’. Yes it’s a good excuse to wear ill-fitting day-glo lycra but it’s also good to challenge yourself each day. It’s all about self-development and the words of Gandhi ring in my ears each morning (“be the change you want to see in this world”). Assuming I want to see far more men limping about looking like the Green Goddess, I embrace the change I want to see.
Anyway, back to the boggy jog……
In front was a middle aged woman wearing lots of fluorescent. Fair play on the fashion. However, I did what any proper man would do……I flexed my muscles, stuck out my chest, wished her a patronising “good morning” and went to overtake her. The victory would be mine. The problem was……I underestimated how fast her pace was so we ended up side by side for ages like two lorries on a motorway, no eye contact, neither giving way. It had all the tension of Decker v Budd or Coe v Ovett. For a moment I could truly understand how Jessica Ennis felt at the London Olympics having to carry all the pressure and expectation of millions in delivering a victory that everyone expected. You could cut the tension with a knife (I small blunt one used for buttering……but a knife all the same).
With the pressure mounting, I did what any self-respecting middle aged man would do…….admit defeat? No chance. Go slower and just enjoy the run? Give your head a shake. Patronisingly compliment the fine form of the lady runner and congratulate her garment choice? Don’t be daft. I simply took a sharp right hand turn up a bank covered in bushes where no path existed and cut myself to shreds (because that was the route I was always going to take!). It’s a classic middle aged man move……avoid defeat even if you look an absolute idiot. Result. It was a draw.
Normal man behaviour or mid-life crisis? I hoped ‘normal’ but then realised that I was wearing my shorts inside out. I’m worried about myself.
(update: I’ve seen her again since the ‘draw’ and made sure I didn’t get within 200 yards of her. Lesson learnt and further cuts avoided)
The Numbers
Rishi Sunak takes the prize for the biggest and scariest numbers this month when he announced his ‘Spending Review’ to Parliament. The feast of numeracy served up included:
* The UK economy is to shrink by 11.3%.
* The largest fall in economic output for 300 years.
* Unemployment to rise to 7.5% / 2.6 million people.
* Spending on Covid-19 so far has been £280 billion, with a further £55 billion next year.
I contemplated the huge figures and concluded that, rather than being ‘over’ or ‘under’, can you just be ‘whelmed’. Are we always simply whelmed, awaiting something to take us either ‘over’ or ‘under’? I’m going to ponder that.
1 in 8 shops failed to reopen after the lockdown and I fear for many more after Lockdown 2.0.
Whilst Rishi is suggesting that the economy will shrink this year by 11.3%, it is worth considering that this could be deemed a great success. We have spent around 20% of the year in lockdown and pretty much most of it in partial closure.
Children of the future will look back on this time with wonderment. Economists who are young now will be telling their grandchildren about the time that there was a 15.5% rise in GDP in just 3 months, admittedly preceded by a 19.8% drop in the previous 3 months. We will never see figures like that again. Explaining too that a 15.5% quarterly rise in GDP (three times the previous record) was disappointing as we were hoping for more! It’s a crazy time to be alive!
Government borrowing soared again this month as the UK continued to support the economy during the pandemic. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing hit £22.3 billion last month. Since the beginning of the financial year in April, Government borrowing has reached £214.9 billion, £169.1 billion more than a year ago.
The Bank of England pumped £150 billion of extra money into the economy while UK interest rates held at 0.1%.
As a nation of travellers, it is no surprise that the travel sector has been hit hard. EasyJet made its first ever loss…..£1.2 billion. Consider this……on 9th March they operated 1,653 flights. On 9th November it was 98.
BA's parent company reported a £5.1 billion loss for the first 9 months of 2020 (a dramatic reverse from the £1.6 billion profit made during the same period in 2019). Such is the carnage, it has prompted the cash-strapped airline to begin selling off thousands of items of surplus stock……from champagne flutes to bedding. From a drinks trolley to a First Class cabin bread basket. “I’ve been searching everywhere for an aircraft plastic serving tray used by a thousand other people”……said nobody EVER. On the flip side, I’ve managed to get a vintage 1983 Chicken Kiev with Dauphinoise Potatoes and Petit Pois and its every bit as tasty as it was in 1983.
Mortgage holidays were extended for another 6 months. I don’t know about you, but I always think of myself in skimpy palm tree speedos sipping a piña colada whilst complaining about how hot it is when I hear the word ‘holiday.’ Missing mortgage payments and accumulating more debt interest just doesn’t seem a ‘holiday’ to me. Hey ho……each to their own. At the peak, 1.8 million borrowers had paused mortgage repayments.
The day after lockdown was announced, more than £174 million was withdrawn from cash points (the second busiest day ever). Clearly we needed to fill our wallets to the brim to ensure we had sufficient to spend on lockdown essentials (take away hot chocolate, focaccia and garden centre plants).
As Lockdown 2.0 ends, 55.4 million people (99% of the population) will live in either Tier 2 or 3 for the foreseeable. It’s going to be a long winter!
Perhaps the biggest figures of the month were that of vaccines……3 potentially life changing for 2021. Surely the Government can’t mess up the rollout of this as well? Surely. Could they?
The early opening of my festive tin of Quality Street was a harrowing experience. Only 4 of my favourite ‘purple ones’ (6.3%) and yet 12 of the ghastly strawberry ones (19.0%). Well that’s Christmas ruined before I’ve even reached December. Quality Street? They’ll be forever known as Inequality Street in my house.
The Comedy (The Trump Award)
At a time when the bar has been set so high by The Trump, you would be forgiven for thinking that this month was a shoo-in for the orange one. Don’t get me wrong, he was an easy winner given his post-election implosion but the ‘also rans’ were incredibly strong candidates and would be worthy winners in any other month.
The stupid really have walked strongly amongst us during November……
Recognition #1: Kate Bingham
As the head of the Government’s vaccine taskforce, Kate Bingham failed to publicly declare that she manages private investments for two companies involved in the race to develop coronavirus drugs.
Two months after she was appointed by BoJo to the vaccine taskforce, she said it was the “perfect time” to launch a fund that invested in a company researching coronavirus antibody cocktails. No kidding!
As an external appointment, she is not bound by transparency rules. She is however, married to Jesse Norman, a Conservative Treasury minister. In voluntary declarations, she has said that she “does not invest in companies related to work on the Covid-19 vaccine”. Yet the private investment companies are involved in the race to develop antibody cocktails through their investing.
A conflict of interest for financial gain involving the Government and ‘close friends’. Surely not?
Trump Lunacy Rating: 8.5 / 10
Recognition #2: Priti Patel
She was investigated for bullying. The Government's standards adviser Sir Alex Allan found that her behaviour had breached the ministerial code. So she’s a bully.
Ministers are expected to resign if they break the code and there are no known cases of a minister staying in post following a breach. Instead……there was no remorse from Patel let alone a resignation. BoJo did what only he could do….. backed her with “full confidence”.
The findings came out during anti-bullying week (priceless). When my 6 year old daughter asked a question about this when she heard the news on the radio, I was flummoxed. Just how do you explain our Government and its moral standards to someone so innocent?
(for the record, I did what any self-respecting father would do and told her to “ask mummy”)
Trump Lunacy Rating: 7.5 / 10
Recognition #3: Boris Johnson
His love affair with Dominic Cummings is over. BoJo must go it alone from this point after his political divorce (no affairs or kids involved in this separation……I think).
Apparently, DC was always going to leave at Christmas anyway. Which makes all of this the more baffling.
Why did Boris Johnson sit through hell to keep him in the job after Barnard Castle? A huge amount of political capital was spent to support DC, not to mention the quite considerable damage to public health messaging for 7 months. This unquestionably cost lives. And now DC is going anyway, adding insult to injury.
Boris Johnson is next level clueless.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 9.0 / 10
Recognition #4: Dido Harding
I’m baffled by the logic of this. As an attempt to prompt how great ‘NHS Track & Trace’ is (it’s not by the way), BoJo was shuffled to mid-stage to promote to the world that Dido Harding’s app told him to isolate (so he did). Look you stupid lot, it works even for important men.
The Chief of NHS Track & Trace, Dido Harding, then informed all on Twitter that she needed to isolate also because of how efficient the app is. You see stupid, it works even for important women as well.
That’s until you realise that both had come into contact with the same person and on the same day ……yet the app told them to isolate 3 days apart.
Efficient, it is not. A bloody shambles and a waste of £12 billion it is.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 9.5 / 10
The Winner
To the absolute bitter end of his Presidency, The Trump achieves unrivalled levels of performance that are simply breath taking, inspiring and sets lunacy standards for the stupid rest to follow.
If you look up ‘Bobby Dazzler’ in the dictionary, the definition is ‘a person or thing that is outstanding or excellent’. Never since its introduction to the English language in 1865 has it been better used to describe The Trump in this month’s performance. Take a bow great orange one.
There were some amazing stats that came out of the US Presidential Elections. Take your pick from these stats:
* Joe B won the most votes by any Presidential candidate in US history.
* Bobby D won 7 million more votes than he got in 2016……and 4 million more than Hillary Clinton got.
* Over 74 million people decided to kick Bobby D out of office.
* Remarkably, more than 70 million voted for him and everything he says and stands for. Frightening.
So Joe B wins……assuming Putin sanctions it.
But that’s not the half of it. Imagine you are 1-0 down in the FA Cup Final with 10 minutes left and stopping the game to claim to everyone watching that the game is over because you have won. Then, with everyone continuing to play regardless, you lose 2-0 and blame ‘fraud’ for getting beat.
Welcome to Bobby D’s version of the US Presidential race 2020.
From the guy who brought you “the reason there are so many Covid cases is because we are doing so many tests”……comes the new hit single “I’m only losing because they are counting all the votes against me.”
Bobby D’s twitter feed was a thing of beauty. Victory was claimed before voting has finished. He then claimed fraud…..but only in the states in which he lost. He then tweeted an hour before Joe B won with “I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” C'est magnifique.
Even more remarkable was his live address to rant for 17 minutes that was so ludicrous that TV stations stopped showing it. It’s worth watching just for the dreadful makeup!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8aEo4U5ZnQ
Knowing his time is up, he threw one last act of lunacy out there (just to confirm his madness to any last doubters). He used the last of his presidential powers to ‘pardon’ his former national security adviser Michael Flynn.
Flynn was convicted during a justice department inquiry into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election. He pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI.
It was summed up perfectly by Nancy Pelosi, who said: “Sadly, this pardon is further proof that Trump plans to use his final days in office to undermine the rule of law in the wake of his failed presidency.”
Madness. Utter madness.
Bobby D’s ungracious and outrageous behaviour comes as little surprise. For 4 years he has acted as though courtesy and integrity are for losers. Bobby D got himself into a position where he can’t lie, cheat, steal, bribe or bully his way out of a losing situation and it’s clearly driving him mad. Literally.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Keep your face to the sunshine and you cannot see a shadow.”
(Helen Keller)
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