We are just a month in to 2021 and already it feels like we’ve lived 12 months of it such has been the whirlwind of emotions. We’ve had Brexit, a new US President inaugurated, the old US President impeached (again), riots bordering of civil war proportions in Washington, UK infection levels at such a rate that it made last year’s first spike look like a warm up act, 25,000 deaths in the UK in just 3 weeks that confirms we have the highest death rate in the world (per capita) and Marcus Rashford showing more leadership each day than our own Prime Minister. That is a lot to take in in a year, let alone a month.
We are told by the Government that there is a way out of all of this through a “world beating” vaccination program. I want to believe them, I really do……but when they can’t even organise packed lunches for hungry children, my doubts carry substance. It is a classic example of how ‘hope’ and ‘reality’ are constantly at battle for many of us.
But if we allow our gaze to be lifted from our shoes to the horizon, there are a number of reasons to be optimistic looking forward:
Vaccination Roll-Out
The very good news in January was regulatory approval for the Oxford / Astra Zeneca jab. That offers the very real prospect of a sustainable way out of this crisis. While everybody is focusing on spring, this should at least guarantee that the second half of the year is better than the first. Hopefully.
Brexit
However thin the EU-UK trade deal is (and it appears pretty thin), it is better than the short-term chaos of a ‘no-deal’.
Trumpless
With the inauguration of Joe B, there will be no Trump to mess things up. No Trump to pick fights with the Federal Reserve or fall out with America’s institutions. Joe B will approach his Presidency as he approached the election……cautiously.
Spending
One of the striking things about the UK economic numbers in 2020 is the build-up of involuntary savings as restrictions limited household spending. The by-product of this is that 2021 will see us increase our ‘social spending’ (travel, hospitality, entertainment, physical retailing, etc.) which will provide a kick to our economy once a semblance of normality returns. As the Bank of England summed up……“the second half of 2021 could see the UK economy on fire”.
Unemployment
There is reason for optimism in that the peak in unemployment will be lower than feared. Significant financial intervention by the Government should mean the jobless total tops out at well below three million (7% of the workforce), lower than after previous, milder recessions.
It is difficult to show anything other than complete sorrow when 100,000 people have died in the UK from Covid-19 (more than 1 in a 1,000). But there are reasons to be optimistic whilst we navigate through the harrowing devastation that we face now.
Fingers crossed that ‘hope’ and ‘reality’ hold hands moving forwards.
The Numbers
As the date of the Budget was announced (3 March 2021), the numbers for Rishi to consider gain even more importance as he tries to balance the public coffers on the back of the worst recession in 300 years.
But this doesn’t feel like the recession after the financial crisis. I pondered this on a recent run when I hobbled past a queue of 15 people outside the village bakery spending £3.75 on an organic, artisan, wheat-free, gluten-free, taste-free, essential loaf that is not much bigger than a modest bap. Essential it is not.
And then you remember the Government’s financial intervention, with further measures introduced in January. £4.6 billion of further Government grants on top of the already pledged £280 billion. 1.2 million employers have furloughed almost 10 million employees. At the same time, 3 million people had benefited from self-employment grants. In total, it works out around £4,200 per person in the UK.
Despite this, things will get worse before they get better to reflect the fact that the lockdown during the first months of 2021 is likely to see the UK economy flirt with the prospect of a double-dip recession. The economy is 8.5% below its pre-pandemic level.
The figures underline Chancellor Rishi Sunak's problems as he prepares his March Budget. UK Public Borrowing for this financial year has now reached £270 billion, which is £212 billion more than a year ago. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has estimated that borrowing could reach £393 billion by the end of March 2021.
Retail sales have reached a 25 year low, despite the Christmas and January sales.
Inflation jumped to 0.6% from 0.3% pushed higher by rising transport and clothes prices.
Interest rates stayed at 0.1% and mortgages are now close to their cheapest level in history. Perhaps the big point is……how many more years after mortgages had a 15% interest rate do you think it will take for some people to stop bringing it up? (it’s nearly 30 now and shows no sign of stopping!)
In the aftermath of Brexit, it has been interesting to consider fishing rights ending up being the biggest stumbling block to a deal, despite it making up only 0.5% of the UK economy. Why did the Government favour fishing over financial services in its negotiations despite banks and other City firms contributing 7% to the UK economy? Answers on a postcard……
While Covid-19 still stalks the earth, this is likely to be a good year for the global economy and the UK. The global economy shrank by 4.5% in 2020 and leading forecasters expect it to grow by around 5% this year, led by China.
To put that into perspective: The 2009 recession saw global GDP drop by 1.7%, followed by a brisk 4.3% recovery in 2010.
In the US Joe B has unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan for the economy. If passed by Congress, it would include $1 trillion for US households, with direct payments of $1,400 to all Americans.
The Trump Award
In any other month BoJo wins the Trump Award hands down. When you offer that special mix of incompetence, stupidity, arrogance and lunacy, you win the award comfortably. End of. A shoe-in.
There is a view in the EU that a Brexit deal was only done because BoJo convinced the EU that he really was mad enough to contemplate a no-deal Brexit. I suspect that it won’t have taken much to convince them.
When we consider all of the issues with PPE, care homes, Track & (not) Trace, open borders, locking down too late, Eat Out to Help Out, mixing at Xmas, et al, you realise that it is mainly with hindsight that the lunacy is revealed. 50,000 deaths (and counting) since the start of November is the result of previous leadership and decision making that is not fit for purpose.
However, when you tell me on a Sunday that it is safe to send my 6 year old precious, gentle, life loving, funny, talented daughter to school and then close schools completely and indefinitely within 36 hours of such a statement, I don’t need hindsight to judge blatant incompetence, stupidity and lunacy is at play……and it is unforgivable.
Despite this, BoJo doesn’t win The Trump Award this month. Imagine BoJo waving to the crowd in celebration of triumph in the final 100 metres of a marathon (obviously wearing tight Union Jack shorts) with no competitors in sight……only to realise The Trump is already at the finishing line getting a spray tan and teeth whitened having finished 10 minutes earlier. That was January 2021.
In a final act of supreme stupidity, the award can only go to The Trump.
When you can convince your supporters to start a civil war at the heart of the US and try to overthrow a democratically appointed Government, that is radicalism. People gave their lives in support of it. Rioters simply did what Trump told them to do and he made no apology for it.
As a budding photographer, I hold a great appreciation for the story a still image can create. Nothing paints the picture of The Trumps Presidency like the following pictures:
Day 1
Day 1,448
Such was the strength of The Trump movement, it took 25,000 troops for the inauguration of Joe B to pass peacefully in front of a few hundred attendees. That’s where The Trump’s craziness has escalated to.
The prevailing joke about Joe B is going to be about him being old and doddery. But after 4 years of racism, misogyny, blasphemy, hatred, out-right lies and stupidly on a scale we are unlikely to see again.....I’m ok with ‘old’ for a bit. If the worst thing that Joe B does each day is sink a couple of Werther’s Originals and enjoy a cat nap after lunch, I’m absolutely on board with it.
To emphasise just how crazy The Trump was, Joe B spent his first day in office re-joining the US in the Paris Climate Accord, revoked the Muslim travel ban, re-joined the World Health Organisation and stopped the emergency funding of the Mexican border wall.
Some great examples of lunacy The Trump’s tenure provided……and it is a pretty extensive list.
His legacy? For some of the 70 million American’s who voted for him, this will always be a ‘rigged election’. For the rest of the world, it seems fitting that he will be remembered as the only US President in history to be impeached twice.
A fitting conclusion to the 4 year circus that few will miss.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Lead not by examples of our power but by the power of our example”.
(Joe Biden)
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