After all of the comment and speculation, March 2021 delivered the most hotly awaited Budget in years. When you have a Trump sized hole in your life, the Budget excitement barometer reaches Christmas Eve levels. What a time to be alive.
The Budget seemed (dare I suggest) a sensible approach……I was shocked! A mixture of continued further support over the next 6 months yet giving notice of how we all need to contribute in forthcoming years to repay it. No immediate shocks…..just a little notice of what will eventually happen. We were actually treated like adults……for once.
If ever a man spoke and looked like a PM in waiting……now was that time. Rishi looked splendid in his fitted suit, immaculate hair, defined jawline and eyes that could melt a thousand icebergs. No stuttering, chest thumping or poorly pronounced Latin. No mention of getting the Mexicans to pay for this or walls being built (Hadrian’s is just fine thank you). Just what we all needed. It probably helped his cause that his backdrop was the current PM looking about as smart as a bag of chisels……but you get my point.
Rishi proclaimed “we’re going long” as he extended support for businesses & benefits until September at a cost of an extra £65 billion.
Setting out economic forecasts for the next few years, Rishi gave the Office for Budget Responsibility’s estimate that the UK economy would return to pre-pandemic levels 6 months earlier than forecast. Just as this has not been a normal recession, so it will not be a normal recovery.
In an eye-catching move (my goodness, Rishi is nothing but eye catching), he unveiled a two year "super deduction" scheme to allow companies to reduce their tax bill by 130% of the cost of new investments. Let’s be honest here, put ‘super’ in front of anything and it gets attention. However, exactly how ‘super’ it is always depends on the small print.
‘Super’ size an already dreadful meal and it’s still dreadful……there is just more dreadfulness. Sky added ‘super’ to its live Sunday football offering. Let’s be clear, there is nothing ‘Super Sunday’ about Rotherham against Rochdale (trust me……I’ve refereed such a game on a wet Sunday afternoon! ‘super’ it was not.). And there is nothing ‘super simple’ about constructing Ikea furniture……it’s just a ‘super’ waste of time. In case you were wondering.
Then there is my own ‘super’ lockdown……which has now reached 387 days of working from home. Clearly that makes me a ‘super’ citizen for following the rules like the class ‘super’ swat. Now I’m not saying that I have been stuck in the house for too long but……
* I am now a huge fan of finding loads of veg that’s about to go off in the fridge, turning it all into a delicious soup and then letting the soup go off in the fridge instead.
* I have never met an oven chip that didn’t hugely underestimate its own cooking time.
* The washing machine is a good, honest and clear appliance that shows you it is working hard. However, do not get me started on the dishwasher……private, sneaky and could literally be up to anything in there.
* Cooking bacon in the microwave feels illegal. But it works.
* There is nothing more annoying than a fresh crusty loaf being cut into doorsteps slices……only to be too big for the toaster.
* Someone needs to invent a smoke detector that shuts off when you tell it that you're just cooking.
* Exactly how much tomato ketchup do you need to consume for it to be classed as one of your five a day?
* I am convinced (until proven otherwise) that when I finish my daughter’s leftovers, I’m not consuming any of my own daily calories because I didn’t make it for myself (it feels good to share that with the group).
387 days and counting……life appears to be becoming very insular!
The Numbers
It was a big Budget and there were some big numbers.
The debt attributed to the response to Covid-19 will hit £407 billion, comparable only to the cost of World War I and World War II.
Government net debt in the UK is forecast to reach the equivalent of 100% of GDP this year and would be the highest level since 1959.
The cost of the Government debt is now £25 billion for each 1% change in inflation and interest rates.
We were given notice that Corporation Tax paid on company profits will rise to 25% in 2023 and the personal tax thresholds will be frozen from next year until 2026.
Unemployment is now expected to peak at 6.5%, with over 85% of the unemployed being under 35.
To keep the housing market ticking along, Rishi announced 95% Government backed mortgages for first time buyers. Hmmmmmmm. In 2008 the Government provided financial support to a failed lending market that flogged 95% mortgages with glee. Fast forward to 2021, the Government are now failing lending markets by providing support for 95% mortgages again. Do we never learn?
The 0% Stamp Duty (England) was extended to the end of June up to £500,000 and then up to £250,000 to the end of September.
The other Budget 2021 big news for the North East was the announcement of the Treasury moving to……err…..Darlington to create an ‘economic campus’. Yes, you heard that right……Darlington. Everyone up here in Monte Darlo is currently wondering what an Economic Campus is and where exactly is the treasure. I am also having to explain that Rishi’s mention of ‘Fiscal Drag’ is not a cross dressing tax accountant.
"So, chancellor, what was it about a town next door to your own constituency with a Tory mayor in a traditionally Labour area that made you choose Darlington?".
In summary, the Budget 2021 could have been a lot worse.
Elsewhere, Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package was passed in Congress and will give the UK economy a big boost this year as the effects of his “American Rescue Plan” ripple across the world. The bill is the second most expensive in history.
The plan will raise UK GDP by about 0.5% in the first full year of the package, helping raise the UK’s growth forecast for this year to 5.1% (from 4.2% in December).
All good then? Yes, just don’t mention the newly unveiled Downing Street briefing room at a cost of £2.6 million. Ouch.
Trump of the Month
I have been spoilt for choice for nominees of the Trump of the Month award during March. It’s as though the warmer spring air has made far too many a little cuckoo.
Recognition #1: The Trump
The orange one made his first public address since leaving the White House and his opening drivel was:
"Do you miss me yet? I stand before you today to declare that the incredible journey we began together, and there's never been a journey so successful, is far from over.”
Successful? 500,000 fatalities to Covid-19 and it’s the most successful journey ever? Call me controversial, my matrix of success would care to differ.
The Trump was also keen to take credit for the vaccine rollout in the US. “If I wasn't President, you wouldn’t be getting that beautiful 'shot' for 5 years, at best, and probably wouldn't be getting it at all. I hope everyone remembers!"
This is the same President that decided that the Pfizer jab was not part of his Operation Warp Speed last year and no federal funding was given by the Trump administration. Yea, we’ll remember!
Utter madness. Classic Trump.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 8.5 / 10
Recognition #2: Priti Patel
The Government made a settlement with a former civil servant (Sir Philip Rutnam) over his claim for unfair dismissal. He quit his job amid bullying claims against the Home Secretary Priti Patel. The claims had been due to be heard at an employment tribunal this September but Priti Patel has been spared the embarrassment of a public trial thanks to her activist lawyers using public funds for political ends.
Public funds……aka tax payer money (£340,000) given to stop a bullying claim. Interestingly, there is to be no public inquiry, internal investigation or even an apology from Patel. I’m not sure that anyone is truly surprised though!
Trump Lunacy Rating: 9 / 10
Recognition #3: Grant Shapps
As the big quarantine debate reached fever pitch this month, isolation hotels became a thing of norm for those arriving in the UK. 12 months too late……but we are starting to learn.
And when I say ‘norm’, it should be referenced in the loosest sense as 99% of arrivals into the UK are not going into hotel quarantine……it is nearer to only 1%. MPs were informed by Border Force that of the 15,000 people still coming into the country every day (that’s a crazy figure by the way), only 150 are going in to isolation hotels……leaving everyone else free to go home using public transport.
Take a bow Grant Shapps……Secretary of State for Transport……about as useful as a wooden frying-pan.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 9.5 / 10
Recognition #4: Jonathan Van Tam
Standing beside the Prime Minister at the lectern on one of the five o’clock briefings, JVT was keen to cool BoJo’s jets on how we are “defeating the virus and winning the jab war”.
JVT was quick to say, “let’s not blow it now. We are currently 3-0 up - let’s not lose this 4-3.”
Exactly how can we be 3-0 up after 120,000 deaths? Beyond crazy.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 7.5 / 10
The Winner
All very credible candidates for Trump of the Month. However, to reach The Trump’s lofty echelon of stupidity, a level of consistent incompetence must be employed.
And for that reason, there can only be one winner this month……Dido Harding.
The head of Test & Trace has burnt through £37 billion of tax payer money. Despite the intense scrutiny, public vilification and lack of justification / success, Test & Trace currently employs around 2,500 consultants, who are paid an estimated average daily rate of around £1,100 (going up as high as £6,624).
In response to these reports, Dido Harding defended them as "very competitive". It doesn’t matter how much you pay, if the system has made little impact on controlling the spread of Covid-19 (see Sage’s damning report on this – quite the read!) then no cost can be justified. By definition all those involved are failing. It simply can’t be competitive.
This month the Government’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) released a damning report, taking the project to task for failing in its main aim of preventing lockdowns, despite the £37 billion it has been allocated.
By way of comparison, the UK’s successful vaccine rollout is costing the government just a third of that.
If it looks like a dog, smells like a dog, barks like a dog and wags its tail like a dog……then it’s a dog. Paying a sky high price to trim the dog’s hair doesn’t change it. It’s a dog.
It’s a shambles that The Trump would be proud of.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.”
Viktor E. Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning
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