February 2019 had the ‘whiff’ of a sour
tasting canapé prior to the 10 course tasting menu that March 2019 promises to
be.
Nothing meaty has been achieved
politically or economically other than increasing the speed and velocity of the
whirlwind engulfing the UK.
So sad and so avoidable……we deserve
better. Don’t we?
Here’s how February 2019 will be
remembered……
We
are around 30 days from Brexit and the threat of a huge political accident
looks increasingly likely. There is a standoff in Westminster that ensures that
a majority on anything semi-important can’t be achieved by Theresa May. There
is a standoff with the EU who simply won’t negotiate with Theresa May as they
know it is pointless as she can’t get a majority on anything other than the
current draft agreement is worthless.
Ah
yes, UK politics at its best!
Perhaps
the deadline of 29 March 2019 is a good thing in that it will bring everything
to a head once and for all……bringing to an end what resembles the embarrassing
flirting of a 14 year old at their first disco. Awkward. Very awkward.
On
the other hand, we could crash out with no deal having not been able to avoid
the political accident.
Expect
lots of political speak to dominate our media channels:
“Let
me be clear” (= lying)
“Full
and frank / robust discussion” (= we
lied to each other)
“I
will achieve what I have said I will do”
(= no chance, I am lying to you)
Hold
on to your hats……the 12th, 13th and 14th of March
will be huge days in our modern history.
One of the unintended consequences of
the delays to Brexit negotiations is the impact on the UK economy.
Factually, the UK economy expanded at
its slowest annual rate in six years in 2018 after a sharp contraction in
December (1.4%).
The Bank of England now forecasts that
2019 will be the worst year for UK economic growth since 2009.
I’m not quite sure this was the dream we
were sold in the run up to the Brexit referendum were we?
A whiff of Hell from the Bank of
England? Maybe. (see February’s Biggest
Loser……Option 1)
Unintended Consequence
#2
Sunderland was a huge voter in favour of
leaving the EU……which makes Nissan’s decision to choose Japan over the
(originally chosen) Sunderland plant to build the new X-Trail car a bitter pill
to swallow.
In a letter to workers, Nissan said
continued Brexit uncertainty is not helping the firm to "plan for the
future". There are not expected to be job losses among Nissan’s
workforce of about 7,000 but the decision will curtail the plant’s expansion.
Ministers are now considering
withdrawing a £60 million package of support for Nissan after it broke a pledge
to build the vehicles in the UK.
Yet more unintended consequences of the
Brexit uncertainty.
Unintended Consequence
#3
Politicians have spent in excess of £100
million on Brexit consultant contracts to aid negotiations. With the Government
not having sufficient resources, they have had to agree contracts worth £104
million for outside help on Brexit.
Six companies have each received a
contract worth £10 million for ‘Cabinet Office Consultancy Support for EU
Exit’. Companies with the most valuable Brexit contracts include Boston
Consulting Group, PWC and Deloitte.
And just for clarity……the ‘eye watering’
£104 million comes from us taxpayers. Brilliant.
Tis The Season To Be
Banking
It’s that time of year again. Britain’s
bank reporting season is here. Among the big four, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)
kicked off with HSBC, Lloyds and Barclays to follow. The sceptics say that bank
numbers are so opaque, complex and prone to flattering assumptions as to be
virtually meaningless. They are, however, the only indicator we have on the
workings of the institutions at the heart of the British economy (rather than
Bank of England best guesstimates).
RBS reported profits of £1.62 billion for
2018, more than double it made in 2017. As
we taxpayers are a 62% owner in the company, RBS will make a special dividend
payment of £1 billion to the Government……the first in 10 years.
Just the small matter of the other £44
billion we spent on the bailout now!
February’s Biggest
Loser……Option 1 – Donald Tusk
Donald Tusk is a Polish politician who
has been the President of the European Council since 2014. In Brexit terms, he
is a very big deal in the negotiation process. His voice carries weight.
During a press conference Tusk said……“I’ve been wondering what a special place in
hell looks like for people who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan
how to carry it out safely”.
Is it any wonder that we are at a
standstill with EU negotiations when that is the calibre of attitude at the
other end of the table.
February’s Biggest
Loser……Option 2 – Liam Fox MP
As a European Union member, the UK is
automatically part of about 40 trade agreements which the EU has with more than
70 countries. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March, it would lose
these trade deals immediately.
To avoid this, Theresa May's Government
says it wants to replicate the EU's trade agreements "as far as
possible" and have them ready to go in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
So all good for 29th March
then?
Errrrr, no. So far we have agreed 6 out
of 40 trade deals. 2½ years and this is the sum total. For clarity, the
following are the countries we are ‘good to go’, with only Switzerland in our
top ten trade partners.
Israel
Palestinian Authority
Switzerland
The Faroe Islands
Eastern and Southern Africa
Chile
Congratulations Liam Fox (the International
Trade Secretary)……you have taken incompetence to a whole new level.
February’s Biggest
Loser……Option 3 – David Cameron
Where are you now?
No further questions your honour.
As China welcomes the Year of the Pig, America
celebrates the third year of the cheetah.
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