The Month That Was……January 2019

Let me be really clear from the outset……my expectations regarding our Government / MPs / political system giving us anything meaningful to cling on to regarding Brexit are pretty low. And that is being generous.

 

I am a great believer in ‘evidence-based’ opinion. So where does my uncharitable position regarding Brexit come from?

 

Evidence #1

We are a country that was brought to a standstill by a toy helicopter. Figures revealed that the Gatwick drone disruption cost over £50 million……and there is still no evidence that the toy helicopter ever existed at all!

 

Evidence #2

Our Government has hired a company (for around £14 million) to run extra ferries in the event of a no deal Brexit. Good planning given we are just weeks away from this reality……however, this company has never floated a boat and currently owns no boats. Handy, very handy.

 

So, where does January 2019 bring us up to then?

Brexit DisMay

Where to start? What to say? Professor Peter Hennessy, considered to be the top constitutional expert in the country, summed it up perfectly……“I’ve never been so baffled in my life”. Blimey!

 

When you pick through the bones of political and media hysteria, what have we learnt this month?

 

Lesson 1: Political party allegiance has gone out of the window when voting on the Withdrawal Agreement. For the record, 202 MPs voted in favour of May’s deal and 432 against. Among Conservative MPs, 118 voted against their leader’s deal, compared with 196 who backed it.

 

Lesson 2: Given that May is operating within a hung Parliament, she had no choice but to work with and for cross party agreement on the withdrawal. She didn’t and she suffered the consequence with the biggest defeat in Parliament in over 100 years.

 

Lesson 3: Despite this huge defeat, May survived a vote of confidence across all MPs. Whilst there is no confidence in her Withdrawal Agreement, there appears confidence in May’s ability to govern our country. Apparently. Perhaps it could simply be that the threat of Corbyn as Prime Minister is too bad to consider as a credible alternative!

 

Lesson 4: With the penny finally dropped from Lesson 2, May offered to sit and negotiate with Corbyn to try to get some common ground and get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line. He declined talks……yet this is the same man that happily held discussions with Hezbollah, Hamas and the IRA! 

 

Lesson 5: Even if a Withdrawal Agreement can be agreed in Westminster, there are over 800 pieces of legislation that need to be debated and passed by Parliament by 29 March 2019……that’s less than 60 days. It’s taken 2½ years to get to this point……do we really think anybody at W1 can agree on 800 other ‘matters’? 

 

Lesson 6: MPs went back to Parliament on the back of Lesson 1 to table and vote on potential amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement. It took 2½ years for the UK Government to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement and within two weeks the Prime Minister (and all three Brexit Secretaries) decided to vote against what they had arranged. Farcical.

 

Lesson 7: This moment represents a rock bottom low in British politics. You get the sense that we've spent 2½ years on the road to nowhere. 2½ years of debate, discussion, dispute - and are we any further forward? I’m not sure this was what we were sold in the referendum in 2016.

 

What a divorce being negotiated……what if we ‘leave’ Monday to Thursday and the EU can have us on weekends? Well……as long as we aren't made to go and stay with our crazy Uncle Sam.

Interesting America

The Trump knows he needs a healthy economy if he is to pursue a second term next year. He knows to achieve this he needs an environment of low interest rates to enthuse consumers to spend……and then spend what it doesn’t have through cheap borrowing.

 

The problem is, the Federal Reserve (independent of the US Government) has been putting interest rates up. This is a difficult concept for The Trump to grasp as he has amassed his fortune from borrowing cheaply. No surprise that he has had plenty to say and created conflict with the Federal Reserve during 2018.

 

Which makes the comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman (Jerome Powell) all the more interesting. In addition to saying he won't resign, he signalled in his comments at a conference that the Fed is no longer set on raising interest rates.

 

The exact words were……the Fed is “prepared to adjust policy quickly and flexibly to support the economy”.

 

His comments have come as a relief for many……and The Trump in particular.

 

Stone Facing

Political strategist Roger Stone and long-time ally of The Trump has been arrested and charged with seven counts as part of the Mueller probe (Robert Mueller is the special counsel investigating Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election).

 

You would be forgiven for losing count of the number of The Trump’s close advisers, friends and associates that have been arrested, charged and / or found guilty of fraud, witness-tampering, false statements, obstructing the Presidential election, etc. etc. It is mindboggling that over 20 senior advisers are caught up in charges yet The Trump is managing to avoid arrest or impeachment and there is no shortage of allies ready to take a bullet for him.

 

No smoke without fire? We shall see. Just chalk up Stone with the rest on the ever-expanding list!

Liquid Chinese

China's central bank has taken steps to release liquidity into their economy. It has done this by cutting the reserves that banks must hold. Or to put that another way, banks that need to hold less cash, are more likely to loosen the purse strings and pump cheaper loans / credit into the second largest economy in the world.

 

Credit crunch ingredients or sound economic policy? I’ll let you know in 5 years.

 

Debt Hits New Peak

Household debt in the UK has hit a fresh high, totalling £428 billion, according to analysis by the TUC.

 

Excluding mortgages, average debt per household rose sharply in 2018 to a new peak of £15,385. This unsecured debt as a share of household income has now reached 30.4%, the highest it has ever been.

 

Pretty scary stuff if interest rates were to rise!

 

January’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Chris Grayling MP

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling had the audacity to defend the Government's choice of a company with no ships and no experience as the provider of extra ferry services in the event of a no deal Brexit.

 

Brexit has made the UK a laughing stock……plenty more to come as well.

 

January’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – The Trumps

The Trump has dissolved his personal charitable foundation this month after prosecutors said that it was mired in a “shocking pattern of illegality” that had been referred to the US tax authorities for further investigation.

 

The main charge was that he “raised in excess of $2.8 million in a manner designed to influence the 2016 presidential election at the direction and under the control of senior leadership of The Trump presidential campaign.”

 

The Trump and his three children face a ban on holding office at charitable organisations and a demand to pay back $2.8 million in allegedly misused funds.

 

However, the main concern may well be the potential for the Internal Revenue Service to bring criminal charges.

 

Just for the record……this would add to the 17 known inquiries into The Trump and his circle over his presidential campaign, transition into office, inauguration, business and tax dealings, including the inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

 

Perhaps it’s just water off a very large uneducated duck’s back.

 

January’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Oliver Letwin MP

Oliver Letwin has been a Tory MP for over 20 years. He is Westminster royalty and holds great political weight.

 

When interviewed after Lesson 6 (see above), Letwin said "I am past caring what the deal is we have - I will vote for it".

 

Wow. It’s painful to see that people who hold such power have such a dreadful attitude. Aren’t they meant to be a servant of the people?  

And Finally……

The European Commission says 'EU pet passports' issued before the withdrawal date to a pet owner who resides in the UK ‘will no longer be valid’ as of 29 March 2019 under a 'no-deal' Brexit. Clearly a case of ‘Auf Wiedersehen, Pet’