October offered up a Friday the 13th. You know the drill……don’t walk under ladders, avoid black cats, etc. I always thought it was a load of rubbish……until this one.
My day started badly. Very badly. I brewed the perfect cuppa, only to find there was no milk left. So I popped to the local shop (trip 1) in the rain and got soaked. Brilliant.
I got home, made another brew and the tea bag split before dropping my toast butter side down. Arghhhh. I then ran out of toilet roll at a crucial moment. So I popped to the local shop (trip 2) in the rain and got soaked (again).
I’m a fully grown competent human being so I used the self-checkout. “Unexpected item in bagging area, please remove”. But I just……I just scanned it! WHAT DO YOU MEAN? Enter Brenda from stage right to rescue the competent human being.
I decided to treat myself to a cheeky mid-morning biscuit with my tea as a pick me up……of course the wheat weakling collapsed into the cup and my attempt at a daring rescue mission failed miserably. Day ruined.
Death by a thousand cuts and it was only 11:00am. Maybe there was something in this whole Friday the 13th malarky. So there was only one thing for it……detailed and in depth research (Google) to get to the bottom of this.
The association with bad luck starts with the number 13. In Abrahamic religions, 12 is seen as a number representing perfection and completion; there are 12 disciples of Jesus Christ, Abraham has 12 sons, there are 12 tribes of Israel. The number 13 is therefore symbolically considered imperfect. At the Last Supper of Jesus Christ, Judas Iscariot, Christ’s betrayer, was the 13th guest.
The association with Friday is also linked to Judas Iscariot, betraying Christ on Maundy Thursday leading to his execution on Good Friday.
These ideas percolated for hundreds of years, growing stronger and more influential as the centuries pass, until we reach modern day. I knew there had to be a logical reason why this clumsy, ham fisted (semi) competent man was having ‘one of those days’.
So I’m now off to my GP to discuss my self-diagnosed condition of Friggatriskaidekaphobia (the fear of Friday the 13th). There’s got to be some tablets for that……surely?
The Numbers
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave some pre-Halloween fright with its announcement that it has slashed the forecast for UK economic growth. The IMF puts Britain at the bottom of the G7 league table for 2024. In its latest health check, the IMF lowered the UK’s projected growth rate from 1% in 2024 to 0.6%.
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States make up the G7 and account for 50% of global net wealth. Being bottom of that table is quite an achievement given the recession-hit countries in the Eurozone.
The UK has suffered from prolonged high inflation compared with the United States and the Eurozone since 2022, owing to the economy’s delicate exposure to market energy prices. The IMF expects inflation to average 7.7% this year, one of the highest in the developed world. It is predicting this will fall to an average of 3.7% per cent in 2024, still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
Persistent inflation will mean the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates higher for longer than any other big central bank. Clearly not the right ingredients for economic growth.
And those higher interest rates are a problem for the Tories……a pre-election tax cut sweetener looks unlikely. Jez Hunt will warn that the economic outlook accompanying his autumn statement on 22nd November is likely to show £30 billion in additional debt interest payments due to high borrowing costs (compared with March forecasts). And that was meant to be the cash for the tax giveaway!
The interest the Government pays on national debt has now reached a 20-year high and the balance stands at £2.59 trillion.
The timing of the latest position on Covid business loans was not ideal to add to the above. Around £11 billion of taxpayer-backed pandemic business loans are in arrears or default. The Government has paid £6.2 billion to banks that were underwritten by the state (i.e. us!). It is not a situation that is going to improve if we have to live with higher interest rates for longer.
This month’s most important number was always going to be 31 and Halloween!
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Trump of the Month
There were plenty of worthy considerations this month but the Trump of the Month award is fully deserving and goes to……Conservative Party.
It was their party conference this month and a real chance to ignite voters with forward thinking politics ready for the General Election. Instead we were treated to:
- Liz Truss smiling away and wanting another go at implementing her cartoon version of economics. And just to absolutely enforce she is as barmy as The Trump, she announced the slogan….. “Make Britain Grow Again”.
- Then Nigel Farage turned up for the usual self-promotion and then to support Liz Truss with any time leftover.
- Suella Braverman was next up and was heckled during her speech……before stepping on the tail of a guide dog wearing high heels (Suella not the dog).
- Theresa May attended for the first time since 2018 and conducted a signing of her book.
- Iain Duncan Smith handed Rishi a list of 100 changes to make Brexit great (only 100!).
And then there was the main event……
- Rishi used the northern location of the conference (Manchester) to announce the cancellation of the northern section of HS2 due to costs. Even the dumber members of the Tories would realise that the timing and location might not be ideal……surely?
And that is all the party conference will be remembered for, which is truly astonishing.
Whilst the opposition does not look ready for power yet, there is a national mood shift and the tired Tories are on the wrong side of it.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.”
George Washington
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