The UK has really enjoyed ‘being British’ for those 5 weeks of eating outside pubs and restaurants. With every picture of two gutsy girls trying to eat a Caesar salad in a monsoon with a sodden blanket over their heads, with every news report featuring three plucky lads holding umbrellas over their pints while it snows, with every Instagram post showing someone sitting on a park bench drinking a takeaway coffee whilst being concussed by a hailstone the size of a golf ball, the UK has puffed out its chest and said……“Yes, this is who we are. We are stoic, weather-buffeted Brits and we will feast and drink our fill, outside, whatever the weather”.
Having said that, it was nice to get inside again……we are pretty cold and wet now. The return of indoor dining in May (and 90% of the available chairs and tables in UK catering establishments as a consequence) means that the demographics of who is eating out will change radically. With only 43 outdoor tables across the whole of the UK for 5 weeks, the only people who have been eating out in the past month are the super-organised who booked the two mildewed deckchairs outside the Red Lion back in February. Now it changes and the masses can feast……well, except the owners of the 3.2 million households who purchased pets during lockdown. That’s a huge chunk of the market who are now socially limited, travelling only to venues that can accommodate a golden retriever. It has a feel that we are pretty much morphing into France.
And seeing as I mentioned France……whilst I always thought that we would probably go to war with Europe at some point when we left the EU, I didn’t think it would be this quick and I didn’t think it would be over ‘leccy’ for Jersey. We’re well ahead of schedule to be fair. Looks like we're bringing back good old fashioned British values of going to war with France for no reason.
May has also seen the return of hugging……a vile, smelly, dusty, hairy, embarrassing and intrusive business that I was happy to avoid. But now it seems that hugging is compulsory……the joy.
We have also seen the opening of gyms in May, which has seen me swapping the outdoor hobbling in ill-fitting lycra to hobbling in doors in ill-fitting lycra next to a 60 year old asthmatic on a faster treadmill setting (yes it’s demoralising). However, the best part of the gym is the gossip you learn and the education you gain whilst minding your own business in the changing room over-hearing the vast array of conversations that take place. May’s lessons have included:
* According to every single gym goer over the age of 60, it is compulsory to spray deodorant on every inch of your body and dry yourself using a hairdryer. Can we have a chat about that talcum powder thing as well please. Also, I am clearly not getting dressed in the correct order either……it appears to be watch > socks > shirt > hat > jacket > underwear > trousers > shoes.
* Making porridge is more tedious than eating porridge.
* There is not enough modern music that utilises the harmonica.
* There appears to be a need to create time savings by people saying “me either” rather than “me neither”. When did that become a thing? I wonder what people do with all the additional spare time they generate by this? Whilst we are at it, I just wanted to give a heartfelt word of thanks to all the restaurants calling it ‘slaw’. The dark days of saying “coleslaw” are over. The time it has saved me has been lifechanging.
* The process of dry cleaning might as well be magic.
* Removing coffee flavoured Revels was a mistake of epic proportions according to three gentlemen and their 20 minute conversation.
* Hartlepoolers voting Tory to bring about positive change to their town seem to have forgotten who’s been in power for the past decade (encompassing four general elections).
* There is a McDonald’s in every continent except Antarctica.
* Eight of the ten largest statues in the world are of Buddhas.
* If you sneeze while traveling at 60 mph, your eyes are closed for an average of 50 feet.
It is worth noting that I have no idea if any of the above are factually correct……but I am happy to accept it all without detailed evidence to justify the inflated cost of membership to be able to hobble inside. It gives me a sense of warm peace and justification with every monthly direct debit collection.
The Numbers
GDP is a backwards facing measurement that tells us what has already happened to the economy. Latest figures revealed that the UK economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2021, as the country experienced a lengthy winter lockdown. School closures and a large fall in retail sales earlier in the quarter dragged down economic growth, with the economy now 8.7% smaller than where it was before the pandemic.
The Bank of England releases forward facing estimates of economic activity and they have announced that the UK economy is set to grow at the fastest rate in more than 70 years. They predict the UK economy growing by 7.25% this year. Growth of more than 7.0% would represent the strongest expansion since official records began in 1949.
The peak in unemployment has been sharply downgraded, from close to 8.1% to 5.5%, thanks to the furlough scheme extension, a stronger recovery and an assumption that the long-term damage from the pandemic will be smaller than previously expected. That means about 700,000 expected job losses not materialising. The number of people on furlough is expected to fall to 2.5 million next month from 5 million at the start of this year.
Business Insolvencies are at a 32 year low as Government support measures helped businesses hit by the pandemic to ward off bankruptcy. Government backed lending schemes enabled companies to borrow more than £75 billion to navigate cashflow problems.
The stamp duty holiday has driven the biggest monthly leap in house prices since 2004. Property prices increased by 2.1%, the biggest monthly rise since February 2004. House prices are 8.2% higher than this time last year.
It seems that house price inflation has hit a perfect storm with the lowest interest rates in history, a stamp duty giveaway and £200 billion of accidental savings……it is no wonder that the housing market has gone simply crazy.
Exports to the EU are almost back to pre-Brexit levels. UK exports to the European Union have almost recovered after plummeting by 43.2% at the start of the year, official figures show.
Clearly lots to be positive about that an economic recovery in the UK looks realistic. Interestingly, this confidence is seen across the world as the strength of sterling broke above $1.42 for only the second time in the past 3 years.
All of this data and confidence does have a fly in the ointment……inflation. Higher energy and clothing prices lifted inflation to its highest level since the start of the pandemic, with the Consumer Prices Index doubling from 0.7% to 1.5% according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The latest increase will do little to calm fears that the country is entering an inflationary spiral. Investment Markets have been spooked by signs of growing price pressure in the economy, prompting fears that the central bank will have to tighten monetary policy soon. Although the Bank of England accepts that inflation will rise rapidly above target over the coming months, it insists that the spike will prove temporary and that the headline rate will fall back once again. We shall see.
Ryanair reported a record £701 million loss after Covid forced it to ground flights. Presumably the loss was just £9.99 before all the ‘add ons’ came in.
A spokesman for the company that booked Nigel Farage on a speaking tour of the US reported they had "miscalculated his popularity" after only 21 people turned up to the Pittsburgh Airport Marriott despite tickets being free and 6 of those attending being part of the Farage entourage!
441 days of working from home and counting.
Trump of the Month
There are some worthy and notable mentions for great buffoonery this month……all of which you would imagine The Trump would tip his hat to.
Let’s start with Standard Life Aberdeen. A juggernaut in financial services with a 200 year history announcing that it would change its name to ‘Abrdn’. For reasons we can briskly surmise as ‘it’s modern in it bro’, the company said that the vowel-banishing change reflected a “modern, agile, digitally enabled brand”. Wow. Surely if the company really believed that then their statement would have read “mdrn, gl, dgtlly nbld brnd.” So on that basis, it’s a big NO from me……or “n” as ABRDN would have it.
With various elections across the country, Tony Blair appeared from stage right with too much to say to support Labour’s campaigning. Is it me or is Tony Blair the ex-boyfriend / girlfriend who feels it’s still valid to comment on your life choices…..whilst justifying to themselves that they can definitely rock that ‘aging surfer at a wedding’ look. What is he thinking? I just can’t stop looking at pictures of his hair…..I’m fascinated. Very Trump-like.
I have always wanted to believe that we have a Parliamentary system based on the assumption that those in public office are honourable and always tell the truth. But the more time that passes, the more that system appears well and truly broken.
Take David Cameron and the unravelling of him trying to obtain Government money for a company (Greensill) that he is paid (significantly) as an adviser…..and shareholder. Dave tried to exploit private contacts for his own financial benefit using private channels to lobby ministers and former colleagues in 45 emails, texts and WhatsApp messages concerning Greensill between 5 March and 26 June 2020. Among these were 9 WhatsApp messages to Chancellor Rishi Sunak and 12 text messages to Sir Tom Scholar, the Treasury's top civil servant.
But here’s the thing……he has broken no rules as "on leaving office, ministers will be prohibited from lobbying government for two years" and he left office in 2016. What looks morally corrupt to anyone else is simply considered the norm at Westminster.
And then there is BoJo and his ‘cash for carpets’ scandal as his latest partner couldn’t entertain the idea of living at the flat above 11 Downing Street as it was too ‘John Lewis’ looking and the annual public grant of £30,000 simply insufficient when you want to throw closer to £100,000 at it. Scandal you say? Well, when you can’t prove where the additional money came from……was it public money…..was it a wealthy supporter making a party donation……was it a loan……or will you simply decide at the point of any investigation? No credible answer has been given, probably because no serious questioning has been asked.
Is it too much for the Parliamentary system to be based on honour and truth?
What I do know with absolute conviction is that you don’t need to be competent to make it at Westminster. This month’s winner of the Trump of the Month award goes to……Grant Shapps.
As the Secretary of State for Transport, one would imagine that the borders are a pretty big deal in Grant Shapps world. And let’s face it, absolutely critical in dealing with the pandemic reaching our shores. This seems a concept alien to him though given the mess that he has created.
Why has it taken 15 months in a pandemic to organise semi-effective quarantining hotels for overseas arrivals? It took New Zealand and Australia a few weeks to organise.
How can it still be possible to land at Heathrow from a red listed country and stand next to an arrival from a green listed country for 5 hours to get through border control when there are empty terminals not being used for total segregation?
Why was a traffic light system introduced for overseas travel that was ambiguous to the point of mass confusion. If you can only go to an amber list country in “exceptional circumstances”, why have an amber grading at all……surely that is for the red list? If it is exceptional circumstances only, why are there nearly 150 flights a day leaving the UK to these destinations?
As has been shown over the last year on many occasions, if you keep the rules clear and simple, then we will be good girls and boys. However, if you are “moving away from a situation where everything is ‘it’s banned it’s illegal’ and asking people to apply a bit of common sense” then I’m afraid Mr Shapps you will create a mess. That’s how mutations enter the country, infection rates go up and the NHS then deal with your poor leadership.
Bungee jumping to me lacks all common sense, it’s crazy in fact. Yet I am actively considering doing a via ferrata (google it). It’s a confusing contraption that everyone will have a different take on……just like our overseas travel policy.
The Trump would be proud of such incompetence. Chapeau Mr Shapps!
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
" We are what we do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit."
Aristotle
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