Nothing stands still for too long these
days……just ask Theresa May. Remember her? Already moved to the history books.
Whilst our economy stalls until the political
line dance comes to a conclusion next month, we must continue to tread water
for any sign of a Brexit resolution.
Still, there is plenty of action surrounding
The Trump to keep us entertained in the meantime. He really is the gift that
keeps on giving.
Here’s how June 2019 will be remembered……
Bo Jo No
Show
If we are going to get our economy firing, we
must get a Brexit solution. To get a Brexit solution we must sort out our
politics. Which to be fair, has been a mess since……insert year (there is
no wrong answer here!).
UK politics is like that moment when you
realise that you’ve only got coffee flavours left in your bag of Revels and at
the same time stand bare foot on an upturned plug. Painful, disappointing and
all so avoidable.
What originally started as 11 candidates to
replace Theresa May has been whittled down to two. The process involved a
series of votes by Tory MP’s and, bizarrely, an admission of what drugs each
candidate has taken.
With Boris Johnson the clear favourite, the
only thing to keep us interested whilst the process got us down to two was the
league table of drug taking.
There really was quite a list: Andrea Leadsom
is a cannabis kind of girl. Michael Gove strictly a Class A cocaine kind of
guy. And then there is Boris. Oh, Boris. "I think I was once given cocaine
but I sneezed and so it did not go up my nose. In fact, I may have been doing
icing sugar." You simply can’t make this stuff up.
After all the Westminster dodgeball we are left
with a political fight-off between Boris Johnson (BoJo) and Jeremy Hunt
(Jezza).
Jezza is the current Foreign Secretary and is
the massive outsider. He knows it and he is using it to his advantage as he has
nothing to lose. In fact, he seems to be enjoying himself in a way that being
buttoned up in Cabinet for nearly a decade never allowed him to.
The biggest threat to BoJo winning is, well,
errrrr……BoJo. So far the strategy for Team BoJo has been to avoid as much
public questioning and direct debate as possible. That way the prospect of a
racist, sexist, xenophobic, ageist, anti-Semitic, et al comment is reduced.
That really is a worrying and appalling strategy for the clear favourite as PM
of this fine land.
Although BoJo has the political balls to bring
Brexit to a head (even if it is a no deal scenario), it is very difficult to
see how having BoJo as PM would make this country a better place in the long
term. Very difficult.
Economic
Embarrassment?
Glass Half Empty:
Clearly nobody voted for the current state of
our economy in the 2016 referendum……but the unintended consequence of a
stalling economy is exactly what we have got.
The Bank of England has said it expects
economic growth to be flat in the second quarter of this year (previously
predicted growth of 0.2% over the period). The downgrade in part reflected by an
easing of stock-building ahead of Brexit deadlines. In the run-up to the end of
March, when the UK had originally been expected to leave the European Union,
businesses from pharmaceuticals companies to food manufacturers stockpiled
goods. Add to that the perceived likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has risen, we
are stuck in an economic rut.
Glass Half Full:
Business leaders from some of Britain’s most
important trading partners expect to be more eager to invest in the UK after
Brexit, according to a survey.
A poll of 1,300 chief executives in 11 of the
world’s largest economies found bosses from the US, China and Japan — the UK’s
top investor and the world’s second and third biggest economies — expect to be
more likely to invest in Britain after it leaves the European Union.
KPMG, which conducted the poll, said it showed
many international chief executives “still view the UK as an attractive
investment destination”.
Fingers crossed.
Trump Tear-Up #1 - Iran
The Trump’s presidency resembles that of a
third-world corrupt regime, complete with nepotism and attacks on objective
sources of information. Instead of Trump serving the people, US Government is
converted into an operation designed to cater to Trump’s needs……which is pretty
much picking a fight whenever possible.
And The Trump loves a fight. Or rather, he
loves starting a fight. The list is long……China, Mexico, Germany, North Korea,
women, Hispanic men, women and children (he’s not fussy)……and this month we can
add Iran, our NHS and The Fed.
The issue with Iran is oil. It always is.
Everything else is a side story and smoke screen. By his own admission, The
Trump confirmed he was within 10 minutes of giving the ‘OK’ to a bombing attack
on Iran. Brilliant. The US on the attack over oil……who would have thought it!
Trump Tear-Up #2 - NHS
The Trump’s state visit and royal reception was
pretty unremarkable in reality. I’ve seen more people down at the local garden
centre on a hot day than those to greet The Trump at Buckingham Palace.
Remarkably, there were fewer people along The Mall for The Trump’s visit than
there would be on a day without anyone visiting.
The only point of note during the visit (aside
from the cost of security and policing at the expense of UK taxpayers……don’t
get me started on that one) was The Trump committing the US to “a phenomenal
trade deal with the UK” post Brexit.
The Trump claimed there was potential for an
agreement to double or even triple trade between the two nations after Brexit.
Brilliant. I’m all in.
But then the bombshell……
“When you're dealing with trade everything is
on the table, so the NHS or anything else, or a lot more than that. But
everything will be on the table, absolutely.”
Current rules allow foreign firms to bid for
NHS contracts and a subsidiary of the US company United Health is among private
groups which have already successfully done so. The Trump knows how much money
is spent in providing NHS services and he can see a way to leverage a bigger
piece of the action.
Ah. Maybe not quite all in after all. A
phenomenal trade deal for whom?
Trump Tear-Up #3 - The Fed
The Trump’s re-election campaign ramped up a
few notches this month.
Although the US is prospering, voters are
likely to judge the president on his character just as much as his record.
With typical self-effacement, The Trump tweeted:
“In the ‘old days’ if you were president and had a good economy, you were
basically immune from criticism. Today I have, as president, perhaps the
greatest economy in history . . . and to the mainstream media it means NOTHING.
But it will.”
It’s as near definitive an example of The Trump
in one tweet as one can find. It’s all there. Bombast. Vanity. Falsehood on a
picturesque scale. Obsession with the media. More than a hint of pathological
insecurity.
For once The Trump is on to something……in the
past a strong economy has been a sufficient and necessary condition of a
president’s re-election.
A necessary condition of a solid and growing
economy is low interest rates. What seemingly frustrates The Trump more than
anything else is his lack of power or persuasion over The Fed to reduce
interest rates.
The chairman of the US Federal Reserve made a
forceful defence of the central bank’s independence this month over pressure
from President Trump to cut interest rates. Jerome Powell (Chair of the Federal
Reserve) said that the Federal Reserve was “a non-political institution” on a
mission to “extend the economic expansion” and did not think about “short-term
political considerations” when assessing what to do with rates.
That’s a pretty clear response and one that the
rest of the world should take heart from. We need the dollar and interest rate
from the world’s largest economy to be run independently – it is the default
currency in the majority of trade agreements.
The Trump responded in his usual petty manner
on twitter……claiming that the US Federal Reserve “blew it” by not cutting
interest rates, “doesn’t know what it is doing”. Toys out of pram big style.
Reassuringly, Jerome Powell vowed to stand firm
against attacks from the White House. “The law is clear that I have a four-year
term and I fully intend to serve it,” he said.
He’s a nice insurance policy to have for the
rest of the world currently.
June’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Chis Grayling (again)
From awarding a £14 million ferry contract to a
company with no ferries……to having to make a £33 million out of court
settlement to Eurotunnel for breaking anti-competition laws……there is quite a
back catalogue of cock-ups in his current role as Transport Secretary.
This month has seen an investigation in to the
previous senior positions he has held in Government including Employment
Minister and Justice Secretary and there is quite a history to his failures.
The results have concluded that he has racked
up £790 million of losses through failed schemes in his previous positions.
When added to the £2.7 billion he has cost the country since becoming Transport
Secretary in July 2016, we are at £3.5 billion he has wasted of taxpayer money.
And still Failing Grayling is Transport
Secretary.
Come on……we deserve better than this. Surely.
June’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Piers
Morgan
Try watching Piers Morgan for 10 minutes and
dare your eyes and ears not to question whether the TV licence fee is worth it.
He really is horrid.
But there is one thing worse than Piers
Morgan……it is Piers Morgan interviewing The Trump during his State Visit. For
somebody who self-declares his strong will and personality……it was embarrassing
to watch Morgan turn into a lapdog.
There was no journalistic questioning or
probing of a man who needs questioning and probing……it was simply a platform to
allow The Trump to flirt with us. Pathetic.
June’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – UK
Politics / Democracy
The cherry on the political cake……only 0.34% of
the UK"s population will decide who the next Prime Minister will be.
UK politics and democracy summed up in one
sentence. It lacks all sense.
Word of The Month……
"Hustings"
Definition (A): A meeting at which candidates
in an election address potential voters.
Definition (B): A social gathering for former
Oxford / Cambridge graduates that involves them failing to answer any question
that they have been asked and trying not to say anything semi-controversial in
the process.
And Finally……
The future of 1p is in doubt and may be removed
from circulation. Surely they are worth keeping just for the fact that it is
embedded in our everyday language?
From ‘pretty penny’ to ‘spend a penny’, there
are dozens of phrases in the English language in which pennies play a part. It’s
part of our British culture.
If they are replaced by digital payments, will
the language become less elegant?
‘A crypto-currency for your thoughts’ just
doesn’t seem as poetic to me.
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