The Month That Was……July 2019

Another month passes……another ‘historic’ moment in the modern history of the UK.

 

A curious process that embraces the unique quirks of UK politics……which results in a new Prime Minister being born.

 

Curious? Quirky?

 

Well……the UK is a democracy where a new Prime Minister was chosen by only 0.25% of the electorate, to form a Government that doesn’t have a majority, in a party that is at 20% in the polls, to threaten a no deal Brexit that only 26% of the population actually want.

 

‘Curious’ and ‘quirky’ seem a little charitable.

 

Here’s how July 2019 will be remembered……

 

 

The Bo Jo Show

BoJo managed to go 6 weeks during campaigning without being racist, sexist, xenophobic, ageist, anti-Semitic, et al and that (plus 92,153 votes) is all it takes to be Prime Minister now. Defining stuff clearly.

 

The biggest task for BoJo is the hot potato that is Brexit. He has thumped his chest for 6 weeks declaring that we are leaving on 31 October 2019 under the campaign slogan……“Deliver Brexit and Unite The Country”.

 

There is no doubting that BoJo is marmite……you love or loathe. There is also no doubting that he is absolutely daft enough to take us as close as anyone to jumping off the ‘no deal’ cliff.

 

I fear that he will be hit with the same issues as Theresa May……in that such a narrow majority in Parliament causes a deadlock in agreeing anything. Don’t be surprised if we see a General Election being called in autumn.

 

Time will tell. But first the important stuff……6 weeks of holidays for the MPs.

 

Desperate stuff.

 

 

Currency Confidence (Lack of)

The exchange rate of sterling against major currencies tells us all we need to know about the confidence (or lack of) the rest of the world has in the UK.

 

Two key measures paint a poor picture:

 

Firstly, against the dollar, the pound fell below $1.25 and was close to its lowest level since April 2017.

 

Secondly, the pound was also at a six month low against the euro at just above €1.11.

 

Political uncertainty and a lack of direction causes this……another unintended consequence of Brexit.

 

Just remember this when you scrunch your face in disgust at the exchange rate when collecting your holiday currency!

 

 

No Deal Disaster? (A)

BoJo’s rhetoric for the past 6 weeks is that he will accept a no deal if a good deal can’t be achieved……in fact he almost bragged of no deal happening.

 

Surveying the political, economic and diplomatic wreckage that Brexit has already caused, one might wonder how much worse it can get. It would appear, a lot worse when inspecting the report from The Office for Budget Responsibility (an independent group of cardigan wearers that we can trust). A timely reality check on the impact to our economy in a no deal scenario, the report stated that our economy would go in to recession and be hit by about £30 billion……with public borrowing having to increase by the same amount to compensate.

 

The 300 page report, was an extraordinary document. It sets out, with graphs and ample data, how Britain is about to fall off a cliff. Willingly. Eyes wide open. With some smiling.

 

In any normal situation, such a prediction would be political dynamite and it would shake the markets to the core……but we have become habituated to chaos. We have not had a normal day in the UK since June 2016 and with BoJo at the helm, it’s about to get a whole lot hairier.

 

Let’s see if Bojo is still thumping his chest come October!

 

 

No Deal Disaster? (B)

Perhaps better prepared than our own Government, the banking sector appears in good health to withstand a no deal Brexit.

 

The Bank of England stated that the UK banking system is resilient to the financial impact of a worst-case disorderly Brexit. This came on the back of its regular health check on the banks (the Financial Stability Report).

 

Since last year, UK banks have been forced to hold back more capital and demonstrate easy access to £1 trillion in funding (liquidity). The Bank says that such a buffer would allow the banking system to continue to lend into the economy, even if the UK were shut out of international markets for three months.

 

Perhaps lessons have been learnt and absorbed from the banking collapse of a decade ago.

 

Perhaps.

 

 

The Trump v BoJo

The back drop to relationships between the US and the UK that BoJo will inherit come from The Trump being angered (to the point of devoting his twitter feed to his anger) at confidential emails from the UK's ambassador (Sir Kim Darroch) being leaked to the Mail on Sunday.

 

It contained a string of criticisms of The Trump and his administration, describing them as “clumsy, dysfunctional and inept”.

 

Surely an investigation should be launched to find out why he missed out ‘dangerous’ and ‘idiotic’.

 

Anyway, what the issue does though is force BoJo to consider, pretty quickly, what the relationship with the US will be……especially as we want a trade deal post-Brexit.

 

The Trump question for BoJo is……tackle, tame or tolerate? Perhaps it will be more a ‘roll over and request a tummy tickle’.

 

 

 

July’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Mail on Sunday

Surely an ambassador doing their job in (rightly) identifying The Trump and his administration as “clumsy, dysfunctional and inept” is exactly what we want from those with their ear on the ground in the US?

 

Why does a newspaper (in the loosest sense) feel that this is so important to print (legally / illegally) even at the expense of political tensions?

 

Surely a half decent moral compass tells us this is wrong on every level?

 

Come on……we deserve better than this. Surely.

 

 

July’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Jeremy Hunt

What the UK needed was an opposition candidate that stood for what the country needed and make a decent argument and alternative to BoJo.

 

What we got was a vanilla MP who has held a seat for nearly 20 years and a cabinet position for 10 years trying not to be anything other than ‘nice’ and be a vanilla MP. Nothing controversial. Loyal to his position. Feathering his nest for the next General Election and next cabinet position.

 

We needed more. We deserve more.

 

 

July’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – UK Politics / Democracy 

A Government with a majority this small isn’t going to keep it for long. A defection or two, a by-election or two, a disagreement with the DUP or two and it will be gone. The chances of surviving all the way to the end of parliament seems pretty small. And the chances of running out of road some time very soon seems pretty high……particularly the moment BoJo starts actually doing something that requires legislation.

 

Regardless of who you voted for in the last General Election, it wasn’t BoJo. Yet he will determine when the next General Election will take place……he will decide it for political tactics not with you or the UK in mind.

 

And this is all completely legal and acceptable.

 

 

Bizarre of The Month……

A troupe of Morris Dancers held a ‘dance off’ in Westminster to protest at the new Prime Minister. What next……Pimm’s at dawn?

 

 

And Finally……

After Donald Trump said people should go back to their own countries if they’re unhappy in America, one can only presume that the First Lady has immediately boarded a one-way flight to Slovenia?