The Month That Was……April 2019

Just when you thought that you couldn’t take much more of the political constipation surrounding Brexit, the EU has given us another 6 months to find a suitable laxative. And who’s to say that will be sufficient time!

 

In yet another twist, the 29^th March became the 12^th April which became 31^st October. Pick a date……any date……and you will be as accurate as anyone politically on when Brexit actually happens. If it happens. The UK politically is in such a mess. Values, integrity and ethos have never been more important or more scarce.

 

Here’s how April 2019 will be remembered……

 

Brextension

We didn’t leave last month, despite it being in law. We didn’t leave this month either. I’m not really sure which month we will leave. The things I’ve learnt this month on Brexit include……

 

A 2 year notice period to leave the EU can pretty much last as long as the EU wants. Apparently ‘2 years’ is so last year……it’s all about the 3 years now. A cliff edge deadline is as cliff edge as Cliff Richard running out of fake tan. Far from edgy.

 

In some kind of sick joke, the new date of leaving is 31^st October……Halloween! Me thinks the EU is not taking this seriously. Can you imagine anything scarier than 650 incompetent MP’s dressed up like……the MP’s they are meant to be and going around scaring people with some actual ideas!

 

Such is Theresa May’s distrust of her own cabinet, she locked them in the cabinet room whilst she delivered a live speech on TV so they couldn’t leak the news.

 

Parliament responded to Donald Tusk’s plea not to waste the 6 month Brexit extension by knuckling down to a 2 week holiday (apparently the past 3 year holiday trail has been a great success).

 

There is a new word on the street made up by the French for the flexible Brexit extension……‘Flextension’. Comedy gold from those crazy French.

 

Such is the dislike and distrust amongst her own political party, Theresa May sees negotiating with the opposition party rather than her own party far more appealing as she has held numerous meetings with Jeremy Corbyn. It all does have the feel of Jeremy Corbyn being on work experience at Number 10.  

 

Stop the political police……I actually agreed with something that Ian Duncan Smith said: “Jeremy Corbyn is one of the most politically dangerous and incompetent politicians in Britain”. Firm but fair. However, it is a very strong category this year.

 

Jacob Rees-Mogg makes more sense in Latin than English.

 

Head of the Theresa May fan club, Jeremy Hunt, believes that “Theresa May shouldn’t be replaced until after Brexit”. Well, that could make her the longest-serving Prime Minister in history.

 

Bizarrely there has been an economic uplift due to Brexit. However this has been mainly caused by stockpiling to cover our bases in case we ever crash out. Panic buying = economic Brexit boost. Bizarre.

 

So there you have it……another 6 months of this political constipation……if not more. Clearly, more than ever, the EU have all the power - not Westminster. Call me crazy, but that was the whole point of the referendum……to take back control. But we can’t unless it’s on EU terms! 

 

2016:

“Let’s take back control”

 

2019:

“Let’s wait outside in the corridor while 27 other leaders decide our country’s fate”

 

As the New York Times summarised perfectly: We can smirk and laugh at all that has gone on to date with Brexit. However, in truth, it’s not very funny. It’s actually tragic. What we’re seeing is a country that’s determined to commit economic suicide but can’t even agree on how to kill itself. It is an epic failure of political leadership.

 

Delay Belay

In my sector, the regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, has spent over 300,000 additional hours and employed 67 additional staff to work on Brexit related issues since April 2018. This has come at a cost of more than £11 million.

 

If only they could've spent that money cleaning up the finance industry. If only.

 

Mueller Light

In the US, the Mueller Report was made public and outlined the findings of the investigation to determine if there was a Trump-Russia conspiracy during the presidential campaign.

 

In the end there was a lot of smoke but no presidency-ending fire. After 657 days, more than 2,800 subpoenas, nearly 500 search warrants, a budget of tens of millions of dollars and a report filling 448 redacted pages, Robert Mueller’s crack team of lawyers and investigators cleared Donald Trump and his campaign team of conspiring with Russian agents to influence the 2016 presidential election.

 

All of which has left America wondering: what on earth was that about?

 

However, such is the venom of his political opposition, there could now be a fresh angle of impeachment as The Trump could be guilty of obstructing the Mueller investigation.

 

This will take time and The Trump could be elected President again next year (with or without some Eastern European support!) before this comes close to a conclusion.

 

Like Brexit, it’s the story that just won’t go away. 

 

The Eagle Soars

Love or loath, The Trump has put fire in the belly of the US economy……results highlighting that it had roared ahead in the first three months of the year. At 3.2% (annualised), this was the strongest first quarter since 2015. As the world’s largest economy and a key trading partner of the UK, a healthy US is a healthy UK. Normally.

 

The results will provide a boost to The Trump because rapid growth is the foundation of his economic policy. Never one to miss an opportunity to be modest, The Trump claimed: “The economy is doing great. We’re No 1 economy right now in the world and it’s not even close”.

 

What he doesn’t say is that he needs to achieve the fastest economic expansion in a generation to offset the cost of the tax cuts that he implemented last year, which will cost about $1.5 trillion.

 

We shall see.

 

High Oil

Surging oil price has turned up the heat on inflation as Britain’s economy could be exposed by a growing squeeze on crude supplies.

 

In short, The Trump would not renew sanctions waivers for countries that buy oil from Iran after they expire on May 2. At the same time, Germany, Poland and Slovakia have suspended imports of Russian oil via a key pipeline, citing poor quality. The decision sent oil prices surging amid rising doubts over supply.

 

Given the ‘real’ condition of the UK economy, high inflation is the last thing that is needed at the moment. 

Borrowing Bonus

Government borrowing fell to its lowest annual level in 17 years, official figures show. Borrowing was at £24.7 billion, which is £17.2 billion less than in the previous financial year. Clearly good news.

 

Economists believe the reduction should give the Government freedom to ease the austerity measures of the last decade.

 

However, The Chancellor reiterated that "until we have resolved the Brexit issue I don't think it makes sense".

 

Damn that Brexit.

 

April’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Nigel Farage (2^nd Month Running)

Nigel Farage has reared his head again to launch his new pollical party……the Brexit Party. During the party launch he declared, "I said that if I did come back into the political fray it would be no more Mr Nice Guy and I mean it." Let’s be frank……nobody thinks he’s a nice guy……and I mean it.

 

“The Brexit Party could win the General Election”, said seven-time defeated MP candidate.

 

April’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Ann Noreen Widdecombe

Ann Widdecombe is to return to politics as she announced that she would stand as a Brexit Party candidate in the European Parliament elections……even though she would still vote for the Conservatives in the local elections scheduled for three weeks earlier.

 

Confused? Welcome to UK politics.

 

Clearly the European Parliament is paying more than Strictly A Celebrity on Ice this year.

 

I give up.  

 

April’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Boris Johnson

The Commons Standards Committee says Boris Johnson breached House of Commons rules by failing to declare a financial interest in a property in Somerset within the required time limit. This is on the back of similar findings in December when Mr Johnson was late with a declaration of £52,000 in book royalty payments.

 

Well, I for one am shocked that a man who lied his way through a referendum and was at the top of an organisation that broke the law should have breached any rules. I’m sure he’s usually pretty honest when it comes to money (see picture above). Honest.

 

 

And Finally……

The world's richest man, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, and his wife MacKenzie have agreed a record-breaking divorce settlement. Just imagine having to ‘settle’ for £27 billion in the split! What’s Melania Trump waiting for……she would settle for less surely!

The Month That Was……March 2019

A momentous month that will put a stake in the ground of this great country’s history for centuries as we move forward independent of the EU. A new chapter that will shape this island for generations to come when the people and MPs held hands and took control of their future. A proud moment for all in the UK.

 

What’s that? Oh, hang on a second. Say that again. We didn’t leave on 29^th March? Ah…… 

 

Here’s how March 2019 will be remembered……

 

Political Paralysis

You would be forgiven for thinking that MPs represent the demands, needs and wishes of the constituencies they serve. However, if you ever want to understand how irrelevant this fanciful idea is, just follow the voting habits of these MPs with anything to do with Brexit.

 

Regardless of your view on the rights / wrongs of Brexit, the fact remains the referendum highlighted that the ‘will of the people’ at that time was to leave the EU. But the backdrop in delivering this is messy. Very Messy.

 

75% of MPs want the UK to remain in the EU.

 

The other 27 countries that make up the EU want the UK to remain in the EU.

 

Given this, is it any wonder that after 2½ years there is no majority agreement to the terms of the withdrawal. MPs have rejected no Brexit, rejected leaving without a deal and rejected the negotiated withdrawal agreement. So, what exactly do MPs want?

 

The bizarre thing is, the withdrawal agreement that has been rejected three times only contains details on the financial settlement with the EU, guarantees about the rights of EU / UK citizens and the Northern Ireland border. That’s it. The majority of the leaving details will be thrashed out during the ‘transition period’ until the end of 2020.

 

Whether MPs want it or not, they have probably created a lengthy delay in leaving the EU and significantly more uncertainty for all on the shape of the UK’s future. Ultimately all options are on the table – it would take a fool to bet again on Article 50 being revoked, another General Election or a further referendum. Such is the uncertainty, I wouldn’t bet against Donald Trump being the next Prime Minister. Farcical.

 

Our political system is broken and our MPs have failed us. It really is that simple. It is beneath the dignity of this country to have two main political parties so utterly without talent, intellect, agreement or vision debating something as mind-bogglingly complex and dangerous as Brexit.

 

They say countries get the politicians they deserve……I’m struggling to understand what the hell we have done to deserve this!

 

Just for the record……12^th April is the new date we crash out unless something new is negotiated. Apparently. Definitely maybe. Kind of.

 

 

Cameron Calling

Appearing from nowhere like an arsonist who burned down your house offering to sell you a fire alarm……David Cameron has entered left stage over the last few weeks.

 

Offering the following ‘top tips’ on Brexit……“There are four groups in Parliament - people who want the PM's deal, people who want no deal, people who want a second referendum and people who want a softer Brexit. The Government needs to 'work together' and 'compromise' to get a deal.”

 

Unfortunately, he forgot the fifth group……people who want no Brexit at all. A bit like him.

 

 

Springless Statement

In amongst all of the Brexit shenanigans, the Chancellor Philip Hammond delivered his Spring Statement on the state of the economy, public coffers, budget assumptions, et al.

 

I get that it’s an important statement. We need to be kept informed and to understand the likely direction of travel with the public finances and the economy. I get it. I really do get it.

 

But here’s the thing……

 

The EU is the largest single trading block in the world and not to have access or to even have negotiated the terms of access is shambolic. How can UK businesses and the economy function when it doesn’t have negotiated rules to trade and have access to the EU?

 

Which makes the financial statements the Chancellor made based on assumptions that do not consider all of the Brexit (or not) scenarios pretty worthless. 

 

I am sorry Mr Hammond but your statement was like a fork salesman appearing when it's raining soup. Pointless. 

 

 

Calamitous Chris

I despair. Just when you thought political incompetence had hit a new high, the next story emerges. Westminster is the gift that keeps on giving……and not in a good way.

 

You may remember the story of the Transport Secretary Chris Grayling awarding Seaborne a £13.8 million contract to provide extra ferry services in the event of a no-deal Brexit…..even though the company didn’t own a single ferry or had ever run a ferry service.

 

Well, the Government has now made an out of court settlement to Eurotunnel of £33 million of our money as they successfully argued that the contracts were handed out in a "secretive" way. Eurotunnel argued it would have been a strong contender for a contract, having run a ferry service as recently as 2015.

 

The Government was essentially ‘held over a barrel’ by Eurotunnel and was left with little choice but to settle. Or I guess they had the choice to follow a competent procurement process in the first place and save £33 million as a result. Just a thought.  

 

Chris Grayling is still Transport Minister in case you were wondering.  

 

 

Top Trump

The Mueller Report to determine if there was a Trump-Russia conspiracy during the presidential campaign was finalised……no evidence was found.

 

“The Special Counsel did not find that the Trump Campaign or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian Government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump Campaign.”

 

Trump cleared then. For now. While the report does not conclude that the President committed a crime it also does not exonerate him either.

 

Given the vast number of convictions of Trumps inner circle for wide ranging crimes that were unearthed during the investigation, it was no surprise that The Trump declined a smug lap of honour. There are too many other investigations into The Trump still to be finalised before we see that.

 

Imagine the joyless, empty and anxious feeling I got when I realised we are only 18 months from his potential re-election for a second term. Terrific.

 

 

March’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Theresa May

Away from Brexit, knife crime is a serious issue that is escalating in the UK and has been further heightened by recent fatal episodes.

 

When questioned if the fall in police numbers had contributed to the rise in knife crime, Theresa May responded: “If you look at the figures, what you see is that there's no direct correlation between certain crimes and police numbers.”

 

Fair enough then……let’s test this by removing all police protection for politicians!

 

 

March’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – The Trump

According to the Washington Post, Donald Trump has made 9,014 false or misleading claims in nearly 800 days whilst President.

 

The Trump averaged nearly 6 false or misleading claims a day in his first year in office. He hit nearly 17 a day in his second year. So far in 2019, he’s averaging nearly 22 claims a day.

 

And that is the most important man in world politics, economics and power.

 

 

March’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Nigel Farage

Like an annoying Jack Russell at your heels, Nigel Farage caused enough of a nuisance to get the main political parties to add the EU referendum to their General Election manifestos in 2016. He started it and he caused it.  

 

Rearing his head again in the build up to the previous 29^th March Brexit date, he arranged a march from the North East to Parliament proclaiming……“Before 2016, I promised to cause an earthquake in British politics. This time, I will attempt a revolution. It will be democratic and peaceful.”

 

The ‘epic protest march’ saw 68 people turn up……resembling a group of ramblers attempting to prove that a public footpath is still a viable right of way.

 

Quite the revolution!

 

 

And Finally……

The UK has just passed the £5 billion spend mark on the HS2 train project……and we haven't laid a single metre of track. Meanwhile in China, they have built a 59 storey skyscraper in 30 days. A little perspective for you!

 

At risk of sounding repetitive…… Chris Grayling is still Transport Minister.