October disturbed me,
greatly. It will leave a mark on my soul forever. My eyes can never undo what
they have seen. I was physically sick. Our children will forever ask why we
ever let it happen. We have failed as a kingdom (apparently) united. The month
of October 2018 will forever be painfully remembered for……Theresa May dancing
on to stage at the Conservative Party Conference to Abba’s Dancing Queen.
She broke social media and ‘Maybot’
was born……unfortunately.
I have two questions that
whirl around in my head constantly and I just can’t shake them off……
Firstly, having failed twice
at traditional local ‘dancing’ in South Africa in the summer when she simply
looked like a very uncomfortable constipated robot, exactly why did her many
advisers think that it was a good idea that she should dance on to stage with
as much movement as a plank of wood needing a suppository. You just know this is
all about lining up Strictly in 5 years. The joy.
Secondly (and most
importantly), Dancing Queen was my ‘go to’ song at family weddings when I had (finally)
plucked up the courage to dance awkwardly with my very agile and rhythmically savvy
wife. Nobody puts Stevie in the corner. Thanks to Maybot, I can never hear that
song ever again let alone get my groove on. Completely ruined. Exactly what am
I supposed to do now? Very frustrating.
Elsewhere in October 2018……
Conservative Partaaaaaay Conference
Theresa May has never spoken
well in public, but her address at the Conservative Party Conference was a good
speech……perhaps the most significant of her lifetime in Tory politics.
It was an address that
achieved three things.
- It confirmed that she is
sticking to her Chequers Brexit strategy - not that she even once uttered the
controversial "C" word.
- It planted the Tories at
the centre of politics, with a pledge to end austerity and loosen the borrowing
cap if you back her Brexit plans. Who isn’t going to buy in to better public
services? Clever, very clever.
- She in effect told her
party they will have to send in the bailiffs if they want her out of 10 Downing
Street any time soon. Her ‘not very subliminal’ message was that she is
enduring the huge personal stress and grief of delivering Brexit and if she
pulls that off, she believes she will have earned the right to shape the post-Brexit
future of the UK.
Deal or No Deal
Whilst May's speech at the
Party Conference mattered, she has the hand of Brexit history on her shoulders
and it will define her place in history. No biggie then!!!!
I could devote the remainder
of this blog to what May has, has not, could have, got close to but
didn’t….negotiate with the EU. But by the time you have read it, all will have
changed again.
What appears concrete (at
the time of writing) is that the mooted extra months in ‘transition’ isn’t really
an extension. It is an ‘option’ of an extension and the right to have an
extension. Still with me? Dare I suggest……‘Brextension’. I know, I’ll get my
coat.
And YES before you say it, I
too am losing the will to live as these Brexit talks descend from giant
geopolitics to nightmarish illogical puzzles.
What it is likely to mean is
(a) we will spend longer in transition than the current period agreed and (b)
we will pay billions more to be in the EU for the longer transition period. Or
to put that another way, we have to pay billions and get nothing back in
return.
These are dangerous times
for the PM and could result in her opponents triggering the fateful
no-confidence vote to oust May. But here’s the thing……nobody else wants the job
because they know it will be a career killer.
What a mess.
Budget 2018
As history has shown us, Chancellors
and Prime Ministers are always bound together……Theresa May and Philip Hammond are
no exceptions.
Neither of them are flashy
politicians. In fact, they are like a well-to-do middle-aged couple. Phil is at
the leather wheel of a Jag and they are gently bickering over the directions, whilst
Theresa holds a tin of travel sweets. The car journey is more likely to descend
into frosty silences and raised eyebrows, rather than having a blazing shouting
match. They are grimly determined that they will arrive at their destination by
persevering, never indulging in too much drama.
Not ‘too much drama’ was a
perfect summary of the 2018 Budget. It contained all of the usual and little
surprise (or enterprise). There were winners and losers……there always are.
There was use of key phrases in the speech designed to force newspaper
headlines. Let’s not forget the all important increase in spending to crucial
public services. Then there are the usual tax giveaways which are aimed to win
lower / basic rate taxpayer support but the biggest winners are always higher
rate taxpayers.
Whilst the speech was hoping
to manipulate headlines, it will not have gone unnoticed that Frugal Phil said
“austerity is coming to an end”. This compares with Manic May’s declaration at
the Tory Party Conference that “austerity is over”. So which is it? Now that’s
the headline grabber.
All in all, the only real
surprise was that there wasn’t another ISA launched to confuse the already
confused masses! Not too much drama……but given the current situation with the
EU, how could there be?
Philip Hammond gave his last
Budget before the UK leaves the EU (apparently). Time will tell whether it is his
last Budget anyway.
October’s Biggest
Loser……Option 1 – Theresa May Dancing
Maybot. Enough said. My eyes
are still bleeding.
October’s Biggest
Loser……Option 2 – Donald Trump
Aside from Brexit, ‘Trade
Wars’ has been a fixture in the news over the past 6 months as the two largest
economies battle it out. US v China has had many around the world fidgety.
Trump declares war on China
(economically speaking) by slapping huge tariffs on exported goods into the US
from China. He has done this to the tune of $300 billion of China’s exports
that have been imported (about 11% of China’s exports have been hit) and he has
declared this a “massive success” for the US economy.
FAKE NEWS!
What Trump has failed to
tell those that don’t understand the maths (including himself) is that at the
same time as imposing the tariffs on China, China have purposely devalued their
currency against the dollar.
The increase in the US
tariffs means that China’s exports are 2.3% more expensive. However, China
devaluing their currency means that the goods are now 10% cheaper. As a
consequence of Trumps tariffs to discourage China’s exports, they are now 10% more
attractive.
Basic maths surely. You
couldn’t make it up……and Trump calls this a great success for the American
people!
October’s
Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Philip Hammond
This was the most pointless
Budget in living history. By his own admission, Philip Hammond stated that
there would need to be another Budget if there was ‘no deal’ with the EU or if
the terms of Brexit were not overly favourable.
The purpose of the Budget is
to set out how the UK will balance the books over the next 5 years and detail
how this will be achieved. Clearly, the biggest financial threat to the UK is
Brexit and we can’t understand the implications until a deal is known.
Yet the implications of the
Budget are far reaching as they impact so many people. Purely from a business
perspective, changes to tax creates vast work and associated costs. Then there
are the Government agencies that are impacted in delivering support services to
the masses.
Holding a Budget that is in
essence ‘temporary’ and may well need to be repeated when Brexit is clearer is
simply delusional on so many levels and lacks common sense if not empathy. Holding
a wet finger in the air would be an equally successful Budget strategy.
And
Finally……
Donald Trump’s visit to the UK in July cost ‘us’ £18 million
according to the National Police Chiefs’ Council, with over 10,000 officers
used from around the country.
If was effectively a weekend away playing golf in Scotland (on a
course / hotel that he owns), whilst popping in for a chat with Maybot and
afternoon tea with the Queen at Windsor Castle. That’s it. Nothing else. That’s
what £18 million buys you.
Unbelievably true.
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