The Big 2017 Survey

 

 

 

Economists are a funny breed…….on the one hand they keep the cardigan section of M&S in business……yet on the other hand so many cling on to every word they have to say.

 

So it is no surprise that the Financial Times annual 2017 survey of the 122 leading UK economists is always a ‘must read’ (I have no idea why 122 by the way before you ask!!!!).

 

The major headlines to come out of it are:

 

- UK economic growth will slow markedly in 2017 (which to be fair the Chancellor confirmed in his Autumn Statement).

 

- Household incomes will be squeezed tightly by higher inflation eroding wages in real terms.

 

- Businesses will hold back on investment decisions because of uncertainty about Brexit.

 

- There are more downside risks than upward risks.

 

Perhaps the most concerning headline is that most economists predict the rise in inflation will put pressure on household income and this will hold back consumer spending……which has been the engine of economic growth in the UK in recent years.

 

Economists do get predictions wrong……but they are paid to get it right and they are on the money more often than not. We shall see.

 

It will be interesting to see how 2017 plays out.