Thursday, 24 September 2015

Marmite Cocktail

 
 
We have seen quite some volatility over the last few days, which have been terrible for commodities firms on global stockmarkets.
 
Which always begs the question……what on earth is going on?
 
Dead simple……simply look at the 2 big players in the world economy for your answer. China and USA have much to answer for.
 
Firstly, China. The slowdown in the Chinese economy has been weighing on commodity prices. Investor decisions that were taken three or four years ago when China’s economy was growing at around 10% have led to a problem of oversupply in commodities.
 
Secondly, the US. In the background there is a distinct prospect of an interest rate hike in the US. This will lead to a stronger dollar and will make commodities more expensive because they are priced in dollars.
 
This reducing supply / demand at the same time of the prospect of a strong dollar creates a ‘marmite cocktail’……the cherry and sparkler on the top being prices further exacerbated by investor sentiment. Quite a cocktail that not all came stomach.
 
Until the stimulus pushed through in China last month begins to show results, we can expect to see some continue turbulence.
 
Interesting times

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