Conquering and improving allows me to grow and build confidence as a person. It makes me a better version. I am always looking to test myself and May has been a challenging month for sure.
I managed to bring the emptied wheelie bin back in without having a quick peek inside
first. It was a struggle to begin with but then a significant win.
I took a taxi journey and avoided asking “you
been busy” and I didn’t end the journey with “anywhere here’s fine.” I know,
revolutionary.
I walked past a large house without making the
usual boring comment on what the heating bill must be like and how I wouldn’t
like to cut the grass. Progress.
I didn’t stare at the washing machine for the
first few spins after switching it on just to make sure. A small victory.
I visited a garden centre and was able to
resist the thrill of having a go on a swinging garden bench. I also avoided
buying what is essentially a home-made jar of Branston Pickle, just not as
nice, for £8. And just to show off, I refused all offers of help to carry
compost to the car despite completely forgetting that I have the strength of a
child. Treble win.
I ventured to my Sainsburys Local, placed the items
on the shop counter and managed to avoid the compulsory “just these please.” Clearly
a win in any decent person’s eyes. However, it created a counter problem in
that the shop assistant then asked, “is that everything”. It was a bolt out of
the blue……I just didn’t see it coming. I might need to go back to the drawing
board on this one. I did manage to hand over a note to pay without adding "sorry
I don't have any change" (as if the shop doesn't have a till full of coins).
A small victory.
(no, I didn’t use the self check out……I
decided I could better use the 20 minutes trying to “find item” that needed
weighing).
I avoided telling anyone within earshot that I
am “all over the place this week with which day it is” due to a bank holiday.
Which psychopath puts two bank holidays in May anyway? That’s a double
challenge. This was my biggest win of the month.
It’s not all been straight wins though……there
is still room for improvement.
I still haven’t managed to avoid saying ''it looks
like rain'' at the sight of a few dark clouds……or trying the handle after
locking the door, just in case……or whispering "you're welcome" as
quietly as possible when I hold the door open for someone who offers no gratitude……or
pay for petrol without looking back at the pump number 12 anxious times before
paying.
I am sure you would agree that I’ve had a
positive month of personal growth……but clearly it is a work in progress. Still
plenty to work on.
The Numbers
Like him or not (no need to answer that one),
the big news centred on The Trump’s inconsistent (who would have thought it)
approach to trade tariffs and three deals that he has / hasn’t struck. The
moving of economic goalposts on an (almost) hourly basis will have the most
astute dizzy……so sit tight……here goes……
From absolutely nowhere, the UK was first in
line. Now, I have been pretty scornful of Keir’s kiss ass approach to The Trump
and the grovelling way he has bowed to the President with a letter from the
King. However, he might just have played a decent hand.
The economic deal reduced tariffs on car
imports from 27.5% to 10% and tariffs on steel and aluminium to 0%.
The blanket 10% tariff on UK exports to the US remains in place. Keir said
that “it was jobs saved, jobs won but not job done.”
However, given the starting point and The Trump’s
attitude to tariffs on other countries, it felt like a win (of sorts).
US Trade Deal #2
Well, not so much of a deal……more a pause on
being an idiot. The United States and China agreed to pause reciprocal tariffs
temporarily and co-operate to avoid rupturing the global economy. When The
Trump announced 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, it felt like an act of
economic war……with a 60% chance of a recession the world over predicted.
Much lower tariffs between China and the US,
albeit for 90 days, will further fortify hopes that The Trump is still a
dealmaker at heart. Fingers crossed.
US Trade Deal #3
Again, not so much of a deal……more a slap in
the face if you don’t bring the teacher an apple. If you are not playing the
game properly, The Trump will flex his muscles in a breath. Just ask the EU……as
he has announced a 50% tariff on all EU goods from 1st June (then
extended by a month for no apparent reason) as he complained that the EU was
“very difficult to deal with” and that “our discussions with them are going
nowhere”. Perhaps Keir deserves a little credit after all.
Despite The Trump claiming at the start of the
month that he had already “struck 200 deals” on tariffs with foreign
leaders and that negotiations with foreign powers would be “finished within 3
– 4 weeks”, he has yet to release details of any agreements other than with
the UK.
Still with me?
Then from absolutely nowhere, The Trump’s
economic agenda was thrown into turmoil when a federal court ruled that his
worldwide tariffs were unlawful and should be overturned. A panel of three
judges on the US Court of International Trade found that Trump lacked the
authority to begin his trade war and the court ordered the tariffs be
“vacated”.
Where does that leave us? Who knows……to be
continued……
The best way to track The Trump saga is to
watch the yield on treasuries. These are the bonds the United States Government
issues to raise money (their version of a gilt). Yields reflect what markets
think about the credibility of a Government’s finance plans…….it’s a simple
measure of confidence.
3 years ago the rate on the 30-year
treasury was just 3%. To put it another way, investors wanted a 3%
return to agree to lend money to the US Government for 30 years. Now it
is 5%. It has only been this high twice in 20 years. What is
remarkable this time is how quickly US yields have risen to show a significant
lack of confidence in The Trump’s trade plans.
Then add in the impact to US companies that
build and provide services across borders, the situation is a chaotic mess.
Take Apple as an example (see last month’s Trump of the Month)……the tariffs
will cost the company about $900 million in the current financial
quarter alone.
Whilst all of the topsy-turvy trade talk
continues, The Trump is trying to push through a tax cuts bill in what he
described as “one big beautiful bill” that would continue the cuts made during
his first term. In other words, he wants to raise debt beyond the bulging $2
trillion a year budget deficit. It was no surprise that the US has been
stripped of its top-notch credit rating by Moody’s.
A little closer to home……
The Bank of England’s monetary policy
committee, the 9 member panel that sets the base interest rate every 6
weeks, voted 5 - 4 in favour of lowering borrowing costs by 0.25%
to 4.25%. However, with the latest gloomy inflation data, interest rates
are not predicted to lower much further in 2025.
UK inflation jumped to its highest level in
more than a year……pushed higher by a range of household bills rising sharply in
“awful April”. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said inflation climbed
to 3.5% (up from 2.6%) the steepest level since January 2024. Food
inflation climbed to 3.4% and services inflation, which is closely
watched by the Bank of England, rose to 5.7% and above the Bank’s
expectation.
Keir announced a second trade deal of the
month……with India, the 5th largest economy in the world. Presumably
this was a little easier without The Trump flexing his orange muscles? Most important
of all is the opportunity it gives the UK to catch up after years of
underperformance in trade with India. India is only the UK’s 12th
largest export market and the UK has only a 2.1% share of India’s
imports despite more than 9,000 businesses exporting there. There is
clearly scope for these figures to be improved upon.
India will remove or reduce tariffs on 92% of
UK goods exports and UK firms will be granted access to around 40,000
Indian procurement contracts with a value of at least £38 billion a year.
And then for the hattrick……a new trade deal
with the EU. Since the UK formally left the EU in 2020, trade and cooperation
between the two sides have been governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement
(TCA). However, this arrangement led to significant friction, particularly for
food exporters, manufacturers and travellers. UK exports to the EU fell by 21%
and imports by 7% since Brexit. So, Keir set about a “more promising and
pragmatic, growth-focused approach.”
The devil is always in the detail and the small
print will take quite some time to truly understand the benefits of the new
trade deal. However, the biggest concession that the UK had to make was
extending the agreement that grants EU fishing vessels continued access to UK
waters……for 12 years!
My favourite number this month was……23……a company birthday……the number of years that Davison Smith has been trading!
Trump of the Month
Quite a gaggle of worthy nominees to consider
this month……
Donald John Trump was a strong
consideration. After digesting the news that he has the lowest approval rating
after 100 days of a President in 80 years, he went rogue
by suggesting the need to reopen Alcatraz as there has to be another place in the
US for dangerous repeat criminals. Presumably,
the White House only has so much room. This was closely followed by a
declaration that “I’d like to be Pope.” Wow.
Elsewhere, a Government report has been
produced that suggests that insider dealing could be taking place before as
many as 1 in 3 company takeovers in the UK……but yet it still continues.
If only we lived in a developed country with the most heavily regulated financial
systems in the world. Ah……
All worthy of consideration but this month’s
Trump of the Month was thoroughly deserved by…… Nigel Paul Farage.
Never one to miss an opportunity to flex his
racist muscles on immigration, enter Farage from stage right to proclaim that
it will be “20% cheaper to employ an Indian worker” as part of the new UK-India
trade deal. It stoked a fire with certain elements of society that don’t need
much prodding……yet Farage selectively missed the point……and truth.
At the heart of Farage’s issue is a provision
in the trade deal that Indian workers will no longer have to pay national
insurance contributions for up to three years while in the UK and will now be
20% cheaper to employ.
Yet the point is, it stops the need for workers
on short-term visas from paying social security and national insurance in both
the country they work in and their home country. What Farage has selectively
failed to mention is that the UK has similar reciprocal agreements with more
than 50 other countries, including the US and EU. All the UK has done is extend
the double contribution convention to one more country.
Farage and Reform UK position themselves as
defenders of UK workers……yet this is simply a headline grabber for Daily Mail
readers.
Farage has taken this right out of The Trump
lunacy playbook……and that should be recognised and commended. Utter craziness.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Racism is a refuge for the ignorant. It
seeks to divide and to destroy."
Pierre Berton
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