I took a few days off this month and decided to keep things very traditional……a break in the Yorkshire Dales being, well, bloody British. This obviously meant spending too much time inside chuntering about the weather and waiting for a 5 minute break in the rain to smell the (damp) fresh air.
But my time waiting for that 5 minutes wasn’t wasted and some positive life conclusions were found:
- There is nothing in life as soothing as an animal yawning.
Getting a fly to leave your house is the most complex operation known to man. It's completely baffling how flies can accidentally end up coming into your house when you consider just how big outside is.
- The saying “better than a kick in the teeth” sums up British levels of optimism, expectation and acceptance perfectly.
- I would love to know the stats on how many divorces were caused because of arguments over dishwasher stacking. I’d say if everyone was honest it’s a strong 90%. A lightweight tupperware lunch box incorrectly put on the top shelf that ‘flips’ and fills nicely to the brim with the dirty water and then soaks the clean dishes at the bottom is a clear reason for divorce. Definitely 90%.
- It’s now impossible to ‘pick up a few bits” from the supermarket without it costing £54.
- As retailer Wilko collapses, WH Smith somehow manages to cling on. We live in a sick world. It’s got to be their iron grip on airports that’s keeping them going. Wilko, like Woolworths, did pic n mix……whereas WH Smith always stayed away. There’s a lesson for all retailers right there.
- There is no greater stress than ‘those’ people who decide to queue to the side of someone rather than directly and obviously behind them. What on earth do you think you’re doing? Your behaviour is odd, distressing and is causing mental chaos for many. Stop it.
- Only a Brit would look at a portion of rice and think “I know what would go well with that… a portion of chips”.
- Starting a sentence by quietly saying “look” is a clear warning that you're completely consumed with rage.
- I can still remember my best friend’s landline number from when I was 7……but recounting my wife’s mobile number is beyond me (it’s been the same number for over 20 years).
- I stare angrily at the ‘Quiet Coach’ sign in the hope it will cause the loud person to be ejected through the roof of the train. It never does though.
- There is never a more satisfying feeling than when you’ve given your desk a damn good tidy.
- Never has the month of August been so good for the garden.
- Accidentally inching forward a bit at the traffic lights is a guaranteed way to tell the car to your side that you've challenged them to a race.
- There’s nothing a cup of tea can’t cure. Apparently.
- You’re not truly having guests around unless you’ve decanted some posh crisps into a bowl. Indeed, nothing says domestic sophistication in Britain more than the decanting of crisps.
- I learnt that Nigel Farage is 3 years younger than Gary Lineker and I’m not sure what to do with that information other than maybe eat more crisps. I had a similar reaction to the realisation that Jay Z and Jacob Rees-Mogg are the same age.
I am sure you would agree……the rain induced downtime has been well used.
The Numbers
A puzzle, disguised as a problem, wrapped up in a conundrum, creating a dilemma. Welcome to the world of UK inflation 2023.
August started with the Bank of England’s announcement on interest rates……a further rise of 0.25% to 5.25%. This is the 14th consecutive interest rate rise and a 15-year high.
All eyes were then on August’s pay and price (AKA inflation) figures.
First came the announcement that wages grew at a record annual pace of 7.8%, the highest since comparable records began in 2001. Then came the news of inflation reducing from 7.9% to 6.8%. ‘Stable’ is not a word that comes to mind.
The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, said “once both prices and pay are stable, then rates would drop”. This month’s figures were far from ‘stable’.
To put this another way, inflation can’t hit the target of 2% if we are earning more than that.
Not welcome figures and it points to more interest rate rises from September. We are certainly not at the interest rate peak.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for the Bank of England is to explain why interest rate rises have had so little impact, despite causing huge pain to hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders and other borrowers. This is the biggest credibility test it has faced.
The key indicator of when the interest rate pain is working is when unemployment increases sufficiently. When businesses start to fail or reduce employment numbers, unemployment will go up. And when unemployment goes up, there will be a greater pool of people to fill less vacancies. The greater the pool, the cheaper the wages that need to be paid……bringing inflation down as a consequence.
This month’s announcement from the ONS's employment data suggested that the UK jobs market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% to 4.2% and the number of people in jobs ticked lower. This will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling……but not cold enough though. Clearly, interest rates need to be more painful and more pain is in the post.
My own favourite number this month……250……the number of years Honister Slate Mine has been in operation……which obviously meant that a certain Daddy and Daughter felt obliged to climb!
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Trump of the Month
There has been quite an abundance of entries for the monthly award for lunacy and all are very worthy candidates.
Huw Pill (Bank of England Chief Economist) informed all in a recent speech that “there's an equal risk that inflation could fall too far below the Bank’s 2% target in the next 2 years or it could prove stubbornly high, leading to more monetary tightening”. A perfect forecast……it might be too high or too low. This is the UK’s top economist and we pay him £197,217 a year. Mental.
Liz Truss……remember her? She could have demurred when it came to the announcement of her resignation honours list and won back some respect……but she persisted. Her nomination list included people who, during her five minutes as Prime Minister, stayed steadfastly at her side while she crashed the economy and presumably didn’t once say: “You are stupid and this is mad.”
Whilst BoJo’s resignation honours list was simply ghastly, Lizzie trashed the values of excellence, achievement and integrity that should underpin such awards. Crazy.
Interestingly, the list didn’t include the financial master Kwasi Kwarteng. Presumably even she thought he was too insane for an honour given his interview this month where he admitted that the mini-budget turmoil they created affected his mortgage. To put that another way, he's having to pay the 'moron premium' for screwing up our economy too.
Personally, I don't think you should be allowed to be the Chancellor of the Exchequer if you are stupid enough to have a tracker mortgage since 2021 when Bank of England interest rates were near to 0%. What was he thinking?
Oliver Dowden (Deputy Prime Minister) showed equally idiotic economic skills when wheeled out to do media duties in Rishi’s absence (as a Disney world tourist).
“Raising interest rates will grow the economy” he proclaimed proudly.
Now hang on a minute Oli……let me explain this. There may be good reasons to raise interest rates, but growing the economy definitely isn’t one of them. Ever. You see, raising interest rates is to create depressed spending and this reduces the size of the economy……which is the complete opposite of what you believe. It’s basic economics Oli. Fool.
However, there could only ever be one winner for August’s Trump of The Month……The Trump!
The Trump received a third indictment when charged with trying to overturn the 2020 election. And just as the dust settled, he received a fourth indictment charged with attempting to overturn his 2020 election defeat in the state of Georgia.
These indictments are arguably the most momentous in the US’s 247-year history because it goes right to the heart of the electoral system that underpins American democracy.
Oh, in case you forgot……the other two indictments are for 37 counts of falsifying tax returns to conceal alleged hush money payments to two women who claimed affairs with him and 40 charges relating to the classified documents he kept from his time as president.
He now faces a total of 91 criminal charges as he campaigns to take back the White House in a potential rematch with Biden at the 2024 general election. He will face a jury in Washington DC, an area where 92% of voters supported Biden in 2020.
Such is The Trump’s crazy ego, there is the extraordinary possibility that the United States could sentence one of its former presidents to jail in the same year he seeks to return to the White House.
The Trump’s response was to claim a conspiracy and witch hunt (obviously) and his legal team will now do all it can to string this out and delay court start dates.
Let's be clear. Despite The Trump’s claim, he has not been indicted by Biden, Clinton, Pelosi, Soros, Big Bird, Wokeness, Disney World, the pride flag, critical race theory or Barbie. The Trump was indicted by private citizens as the US Constitution requires. End of.
Everything you need to know about the lunacy of The Trump is contained in those four indictments and him still believing he is a good choice to run for Presidency.
Absolute nutter.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“Knowledge and ego are directly related. The less knowledge, the greater the ego.”
Albert Einstein
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