Tuesday, 1 May 2018

The Month That Was……April 2018


It was a great month for the media given all of the political twists and turns that Westminster churned out. The political elite even managed to trump well, err, Trump for headlines. It was almost commendable if the stories weren’t so damn shameful.
 
So just how will April 2018 be remembered?

Weak UK Growth
 

 
The UK economy grew at its slowest rate since 2012 in the first quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said. GDP growth was 0.1%, down from 0.4% in the previous quarter, driven by a sharp fall in construction output and a sluggish manufacturing sector.

Why?
 
Is it Brexit? Beast From The East? Post Christmas Blues?
 
I guess it depends on what your political message is as to which excuse you spin as the reason. However, in reality it is probably a cocktail of all of the above.
 
Brexit uncertainty is having the biggest impact and drag on the economy, as the International Monetary Fund has made clear. The UK was top of the global growth league of our main industrial competitors before the referendum. We are now languishing somewhere near the bottom.
 
 
Interesting
At a time when we have seen only one rate rise in the past decade, there has been a growing swell of opinion that interest rates are destined to rise. The latest minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee appear to show that the Bank of England has left the door open to raise UK interest rates in May as 2 of the 9 members of the committee backed an increase in April.

That is all well and good but an economy has to be able to sustain any interest rate rise and the 0.1% quarterly economic performance is the worst since 2012 and inflation at 2.5% is lower than expected. It’s hardly the perfect storm for an interest rate rise.
 
Regardless of the decision to increase or not, I’m pretty sure the media will make us believe it is the worst decision ever.
 
 
Darling Sterling

It appears that the pound is the darling of the currency world right now as it has stopped trading on Brexit developments for the time being and is moving more on its fundamentals.
 
Gone are the days of noisy Brexit headlines stirring sharp knee-jerk moves in the currency world.
 
The pound has been close to trading at its highest level since the Brexit vote.
 
Several factors have played a role in this recent resurgence, ranging from increased market confidence that the UK and EU can strike a Brexit deal, to falling confidence in the agenda of US President Donald Trump.
 
With Brexit negotiations being turned up to ‘11’ next month, we need some substance to the political flirting from an economic perspective. Breath isn’t being held though.
 
 
Computer Says “No”

A media frenzy was caused by an IT balls up of an Amber Rudd scale by TSB.
 
It all started so innocently with TSB migrating to a new banking platform and transferring five million customers and their 1.3 billion records from the platform of previous owner Lloyds to new servers of their own.
 
What could possibly go wrong?
 
As soon as the new system was switched on, customers reported seeing other people's account details and being unable to view, access and use their own account. All in all, a 2 week mess for account holders and a PR disaster for TSB.
 
 
Sex Issues?

In a bid to get to the bottom of pay inequality, firms with more than 250 staff (around 10,000 companies) had to file a report confirming the average difference between male and female employees.
 
The average pay gap among all companies was 9.7%. 78% pay men more than women, 14% pay women more and 8% said they had no gender pay gap.
 
One of the biggest / worst offenders was Ryanair, which reported a 71.8% gender pay gap. Hearing the repetitive muck coming from the owner’s mouth in the media all too often, I can’t say I’m surprised. I’m not surprised either that the Banking Sector was the worst offending sector. Who’d have thought it!
 
Meanwhile, High Street brands KFC, Matalan, Starbucks, Costa, McDonald's and Primark reported no difference in what they paid their female and male staff. Good on you.
 
Let’s see what call to action we get from Westminster……surely this can’t be right and proper in 2018?
 
 
April’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 - Facebook Losing Face

On the basis that you are not a female working for Ryanair who has a TSB bank account……could the biggest loser this month be Facebook?
 
Cambridge Analytica has been at the centre of a row over whether it used the personal data of millions of Facebook users to sway the outcome of the US 2016 presidential election and the UK Brexit referendum. In short, 'political manipulation' was at play.
 
Within a week, Facebook had $58bn wiped off its valuation. That’s more than the market valuations of Ford, eBay and Delta Airlines. Ouch!
 
This story will run and run thanks to the political tones……a perfect storm for the media. 
 
 
April’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 - Conservatives Losing Face
On the basis that you are not a female working for Ryanair who has a TSB bank account and you are a significant holder of Facebook shares……perhaps the biggest loser this month are the Conservatives?

Cambridge Analytica it appears, has close links to the Conservative Party.
 
- The parent company of Cambridge Analytica (SCL Group) has been run by a chairman of Oxford Conservative Association.
 
- It's founding chairman was a former Conservative MP.
 
- A Cambridge Analytica director appears to have donated over £700,000 to the Conservative party.
 
- A former Conservative party treasurer is a shareholder.
 
- Government departments have had three contracts with the SCL Group recently.
 
Pick the bones out of that lot! Gobsmacking and terrifying in equal measures!
 
 
April’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Rudderless Home Secretary

Amber Rudd resigned as Home Secretary as she had "inadvertently misled" MPs over targets for removing illegal immigrants. April’s biggest loser?
 
The story goes…….Ms Rudd told MPs that the Home Office did not have targets for removing illegal immigrants. Unfortunately (well, for her) the Guardian published a letter in which Ms Rudd set out her "ambitious but deliverable" aim to deport 10% more illegal immigrants over the "next few years" to Theresa May. Err......that’s targets then.
 
Well, I declare. That is quite some mismatch between what she told MPs and the evidence which then emerged.
 
 
And Finally……

President Trump is to visit the UK in the summer. Oh the joy……can we pretend we are not in?

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