Tuesday, 5 December 2017

May The EU Force Be With You


 

It’s fair to say that I am getting a bit bored with the whole Brexit ‘divorce bill’. I’ve read various reports, theories, spin, counter-spin that offer wide ranging figures on what the actual cost to leave the EU will be for the UK.  
 
In the red, white and blue corner we have the UK simply trying to pay as little as possible. In the blue with yellow stars corner, we have the EU wanting as much as possible. The political sparing that has resulted with the financial negotiations has simply created a 9 month delay with nothing remotely important agreed. You see, the EU want the financials sorting before they will consider anything else. Why wouldn’t they!
 
Nearly 40% of our 2 years notice has gone. We have nothing agreed. The longer we do not agree the financials, the longer our economy suffers due to the uncertainty. In the grand scale of things, the key thing is to agree to a figure as soon as possible……even if it means paying a premium price for a ‘quick agreement’.
 
The reality is this:
 
1. Regardless of the figure agreed to leave the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May will not be able to sell it to the UK, she will gain no political points and she will leave herself open to abuse. £30 billion? £40 billion? £50 billion? It makes no difference, she is going to have to take it on her political chin.
 
2. The UK has a very weak hand to play and it is likely that we will have to pay the full amount that the EU want regardless. Playing hardball just isn’t going to work.
 
3. As soon as the financials are agreed, the UK will take a big step forward in restoring some confidence globally and take a big step closer to overseas investment returning to the UK.
 
Let’s get it done Mrs May.

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