It’s fair to say that I am getting a bit bored with the whole
Brexit ‘divorce bill’. I’ve read various reports, theories, spin, counter-spin
that offer wide ranging figures on what the actual cost to leave the EU will be
for the UK.
In the red, white and blue corner we have the UK simply trying to
pay as little as possible. In the blue with yellow stars corner, we have the EU
wanting as much as possible. The political sparing that has resulted with the
financial negotiations has simply created a 9 month delay with nothing remotely
important agreed. You see, the EU want the financials sorting before they will
consider anything else. Why wouldn’t they!
Nearly 40% of our 2 years notice has gone. We have nothing agreed.
The longer we do not agree the financials, the longer our economy suffers due
to the uncertainty. In the grand scale of things, the key thing is to agree to
a figure as soon as possible……even if it means paying a premium price for a
‘quick agreement’.
The reality is this:
1. Regardless of the figure agreed to leave the EU, Prime Minister
Theresa May will not be able to sell it to the UK, she will gain no political
points and she will leave herself open to abuse. £30 billion? £40 billion? £50
billion? It makes no difference, she is going to have to take it on her
political chin.
2. The UK has a very weak hand to play and it is likely that we
will have to pay the full amount that the EU want regardless. Playing hardball
just isn’t going to work.
3. As soon as the financials are agreed, the UK will take a big
step forward in restoring some confidence globally and take a big step closer
to overseas investment returning to the UK.
Let’s get it done Mrs May.
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