The Year That Was 2015……

 

It was quite a year for significant news in my world. Here are the 12 global events that shaped financial markets over the past year.

 

January - Oil Price Decline

The price of Brent crude oil dipped to below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2009, leading to revenue shortfalls in many energy-exporting nations. Expect oil price to dominate news throughout 2016 also.

 

February - World Conflict

Russia and Ukraine agreed a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine in February but 2015 saw a number of violent conflicts across the globe. Events in Syria, the Middle East generally and the terrorist attack in Paris dominated our news feeds.

 

March - Strong US Dollar

The Dollar enjoyed its quickest rise in 40 years in March. America’s economy excelled while others – like China’s – struggled.

 

May - UK Election

With the threat of a hung parliament concerning many, David Cameron led the Conservatives to a majority election victory in May. Surprise and relief for the majority and a bullet dodged!

 

July - Grexit

Greece missed a €1.5bn debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund, after Eurozone ministers refused to extend the country’s bailout. A resolution was eventually found but we’ve not heard the last of this story I fear.

 

August - Rising Correlations

As expectations of a Fed interest rate increase grew, the correlation between stocks and bonds also began to rise during the summer. Not unprecedented but painful nonetheless.

 

August - Chinese Black Monday

China experienced its biggest one-day fall since 2007, with fears the world’s second largest economy was heading for a full-blown crisis. The causes were mixed and many but they were exacerbated by the increasing intervention by Government authorities. Hopefully the lesson was learnt. We shall see.

 

August - Fed Flinch

Given concerns over China and the collapse of oil prices, the Fed resisted the urge to raise US interest rates for the first time since 2006 and delayed until December.

 

August - Bond Market Liquidity

The Bank of England raised concerns that efforts to make British banks better regulated may have had a detrimental effect on bond liquidity. As a result, the fear today is that bond investors run for the exit en masse and find the door too small, resulting in significant price volatility

 

September - VW & Glencore

Volkswagen was embroiled in an emissions test scandal, which impacted around 11 million cars. Meanwhile, the world’s biggest mining company, Glencore, saw shares plummet. The word ‘ugly’ springs to mind.

 

October - UK Inflation Remains Negative

UK inflation remained negative at -0.1%, the first time two consecutive monthly readings had been below zero since CPI records began in 1996. A cause for concern? We shall see!

 

December - Merger & Acquisition Activity

2015 set a new record for mergers and acquisitions, with total global deals eclipsing previous highs.

 

So that you have it……2015 was quite a year!