Wednesday 27 May 2015

Post General Election Analysis (2): A New Approach

The fallout from the General Election is pretty much done……leaders have left, political parties have stopped bickering and the press is no longer obsessed with Nicola Sturgeon (thankfully!).
 
The one thing that will leave a long lingering sour taste in the mouth is the current voting system……it just doesn’t work and is no longer fit for purpose. Let me give you a few examples……
 
1.    UKIP received 13% of the overall votes (nearly 4 million votes) yet only got 1 seat (0.2% of the overall seats available).
 
2.    Labour managed 36% of the seats……with 30% of the overall votes. In fact, the number of overall votes they received was up yet their number of seats was down in comparison to 2010.
 
3.    Conservatives got 51% of the 650 seats available in Parliament……yet only got 37% of the votes overall. When was 37% ever a majority?
 
4.   Conservatives got just over 11 million votes and 330 seats compared to UKIP that received 4 million votes and 1 seat. The Scottish National Party got only 1.5 million votes yet 56 seats in Parliament. And don’t get me started on the Democratic Unionist Party……185,000 votes and 8 seats in Parliament (the same number of seats as the Liberal Democrats who got 2.5 million votes!).
 
Everywhere I look in the General Election results there are contradictions between the number of votes received and the number of seats obtained……Conservatives and Scottish National Party ‘over earned’ seats in comparison to votes won……UKIP and Labour should feel hard done by.
 
All in all, it is a mess. The results and the ultimate makeup of our next Parliament are not a fair representation of what the people voted for.
 
But when were the people ever important in politics anyway?  
 
 

Wednesday 20 May 2015

Post General Election Analysis (1): Finances

 
Politicians have been making pledges, bribes and assurances left, right and centre over recent weeks in an attempt to snatch votes in what was believed to be the tightest election in a generation. In the end, the Conservatives scored a surprise decisive election victory.
 
So what does the Tory win mean for your money?
 
1. Inheritance Tax
 
The Conservatives promised a new £175,000 per person transferable allowance for married couples and civil partners when their main residence is passed down to children on death. This would mean that – combined with the existing £325,000 nil-rate band each person has on death, parents would be able to pass on property worth up to £1million free of inheritance tax.
 
 
2. Taxable Income
 
The yearly tax-free personal allowance will rise from £10,600.00 to £12,500.00 under a Conservative Government.
 
If you’re a higher rate taxpayer, you could also see more money in your pay packet thanks to a pledge to raise the 40 per cent threshold from its current level of £42,386.00 a year to £50,000.00.
 
The Conservative party pledged vehemently that you would not see Income Tax rise, National Insurance or VAT.
 
Lower-paid workers would also be slightly better off as the party has also vowed to raise the minimum wage to around £8.00 an hour in the next five years.
 
However unlike Labour, the Conservatives made no pledges to end zero hours contracts.
 
 
3. Cash Back House ISA
 
First-time buyers were promised access to all sorts of schemes to help them on to the property ladder, regardless of which party gained power. Each promised to build more homes to increase supply and had other initiatives to make homeownership more affordable. In the short-term, these could provide a real boost to first-time buyers. However critics have argued that offering more cheap cash to buy homes will only boost demand and therefore prices in the long-term, making homeownership even less affordable eventually.
 
The flagship Conservative policy is that tenants of housing association properties would be able to buy their home at a big discount under a new ‘Right to Buy’ scheme extension.
 
Aspiring homeowners under a Conservative Government would have access to a Help to Buy ISA, which would top up £50.00 for every £200.00 saved towards a deposit, up to a maximum top-up of £3,000. This was announced in the March Budget.
 
Buyers who can scrape together a 5% deposit could apply for a five-year interest-free Government loan equivalent to 20% of a new-build property’s value under the existing Help to Buy Scheme. This was due to be pulled next year, but would now be extended until 2020.
 
 
4. Pensions
 
Pension freedom rules were ushered in on 6 April 2015 (as an election sweetener) to give people much more flexible access to their retirement pots and they can now invest or spend it as they wish after the age of 55. There had been concerns that a Labour Government would undo some of these changes, although it was unlikely all would be swept aside. Now the new rules should remain and be allowed to become entrenched.
 
Existing pensioners were set to do well, regardless of what Government we ended up with. All parties promised to keep the triple lock formula, which will see the State Pension continue to rise by whichever is highest out of consumer price inflation, average earnings or 2.5 %.
 
Pensioners under a Conservative Government would keep winter fuel payments for older people and free bus passes / TV licences for all pensioners, regardless of how well off they are.
 
Wealthy pension savers would be stung under a Conservative Government, which would restrict tax relief on pension contributions for those earning more than £150,000 by cutting the annual pension contribution allowance.
 
But younger pension savers are also being hit. The Lifetime Allowance is being cut to £1million, which means that there are hefty penalties for paying more into a pension once your pot reaches that size.
 
Most people believe this is not their problem as they will never manage to save £1million. However, many more younger workers with well paid jobs, who spend a lifetime investing and benefit from compound growth over that time, could hit this than realise.
 
 
5. State Benefits
 
The Tories aim to cut £12billion from the welfare budget by 2017/2018. However, few details on where cuts will be made have been revealed. It has, however, pledged to cap benefits at £23,000.00 (down from £26,000.00 a year) and to freeze benefits.
 
One change will be the removal of Jobseeker's Allowance for 18-21 year-olds, to be replaced with a Youth Allowance available for six months after which young people will have to take an apprenticeship, traineeship or daily community work for their benefits. People aged 18-21 on Job Seeker's Allowance will no longer have an automatic entitlement to Housing Benefit. 
 
 
6. Childcare
 
The Conservatives have pledged to double to amount of free weekly childcare for working parents with children aged three or four to 30 hours - worth around £5,000.00 a year.  
 
 
...And the changes you will not see
 
Tuition fees will remain at £9,000.00 and future rises have not been ruled out by the Conservatives. Ed Miliband had pledged a Labour Government would have cut fees to £6,000.00.
 
Zero hours contracts will not be banned - a measure also proposed by Labour.
 
Energy bills will not be frozen for the next two years, a plan also put forward by Labour.
 
The so-called 'bedroom tax' will not be abolished - a system whereby tenants on housing benefit have payments cut by 14 % if they have an unused bedroom.
 
People living in expensive properties will not face a mansion tax. Labour had planned a contentious tax that was expected to cost those with homes worth £2 million to £3 million at least £3,000.00 a year.
 
Paternity leave will not be doubled from two to four weeks - an increase proposed by Labour.
 

Wednesday 6 May 2015

The Most Important Election In 50 Years

The most important election in 50 years……that is the long and short of it based on my honest assessment of the economic and political realities we currently face.
 
I have previously voted Labour and LibDem in the past for a whole variety of reasons – some well-informed – some naively assumed. But the current economic and political realities lead me to conclude that the future of the country is at risk if the Conservatives do not form the next Government. Trust me, coming from a family of Labour voting shipyard workers in one red corner and Labour voting miners in the other red corner, that is a big statement for me to make.
 
You see, most political policies all stem from the economy……or what’s in the coffers for the Government to spend. I don’t want a boom and bust rollercoaster ride on offer from Labour that will spend everything and then some. We’ve been there before and it is painful……I want sustainability and stability on offer elsewhere.
 
I am not ‘tribal’ in my political allegiances though as I don’t blindly follow a particular party, theme or ideology. I simply feel that putting Labour back in charge at this time could (and probably will) be disastrous for the United Kingdom. Is it wrong to vote on that simple basis?
 
The economic reality of 2010 was the UK being saddled with a huge deficit (comparable to Greece) and high unemployment.  Now five years later, the deficit has halved as a share of our economy, we have had growth when many countries around us have been struggling and employment levels are the highest ever. That’s quite a result given that we have just lived through the worst recession in economic history.
 
The policies under a Conservative Government have (broadly) worked. Other countries and the IMF recognise our economic strategy is working. The task is far from finished though and another term sorting out the Labour mess that was inherited seems the only logical fit. Especially when listening to some of the other parties……it seems that they believe the economy is fine now and we can return to the days of borrow and spend. That is simply crazy.
 
Promises that they can spend more, borrow more and still keep growth and jobs going are not credible.  We need continuity to ensure the benefits of recovery spread more widely to everyone. Without growth and a thriving private sector, we cannot repay the debts we owe and our children will be left to pick up the pieces of today’s failure to recognise reality.
 
So there you have it……my thoughts on voting for what they are worth based on what is right for our economy and in turn, the people of the UK.
 
Changing course now when the economy is not yet healed just seems too risky to me.
 
Regardless of the eventual winner, it’s going to be a bumpy few weeks!