Tuesday, 8 April 2014

Cautious Optimism Definitely Maybe

George Osborne was given a significant boost yesterday after the International Monetary Fund (independent and impartial – we can trust them) retreated from its previous criticism of the UK’s austerity policies and predicted the UK will grow faster than any other ‘rich’ economy this year.
 
To avoid confusion……‘rich’ is described as the Group of 7 (G7). This is a group consisting of the seven advanced economies……Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA. Now, to ensure that there is no confusion between G7 and G8……G8 is the G7 plus Russia. Get it?
 
Anyway, the big deal is that the G7 countries account for around 40% of all money / growth made in the world. And for dramatic effect……that’s 40% from just 7 countries.
 
The IMF’s bi-annual analysis is looking pretty good……an upbeat forecast for the world economy generally and for the UK in particular. Given that it previously predicted growth for the UK at 1.5%, the latest prediction of 2.9% for 2014 is another substantial upgrade to the IMF's assessment of the UK outlook.
 
Lots to be confident about looking forward……we just need the growth figures to be ‘actual’ rather than ‘predicted’ and we will have some substance to support the confidence.
 
I’ll leave the last word to the politicians given that the General Election is just 12 months away……
 
In the blue corner……Chancellor George ‘Gorgeous’ Osborne hailed it as "proof that the economic plan is working".
 
In the red corner…… Shadow Chancellor Ed ‘Grow Some’ Balls accused the government of "complacently trying to claim that everything is going well".
 
Regardless, the IMF says there is plenty to be confident about……so I’m feeling confident. So there!
 

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