The Month That Was……October 2024

Like a weary pilgrim who has finally made it to Santiago de Compostela or a marathon runner who has negotiated “the wall” and now has the finishing line in sight, I am glad the pre-budget journey is now complete. I do like a bit of pre-budget speculation for a few days……but this has been a few months of tiresome rubbish!

I look forward to the day when the Labour Government begins to calm down. Their obsession with how many billions they need has become unnerving. The £22 billion black hole became, almost overnight, the £40 billion funding gap. It all felt as though Labour was playing Billionaire bingo……with itself.

So, where to find (insert the latest made-up number) billions?

There has been a broad consensus that Rachel Reeves’s original sin was to rule out rises in the four big taxes that together generate three-quarters of Government revenues — Income Tax (£303 billion), VAT (£176 billion), National Insurance (£168 billion) and Corporation Tax (£101 billion).

By ruling out raising the ‘big four’, RR created a speculation whirlwind on where the (insert the latest made-up number) billions was to come from. Rumour upon rumour dominated far too many for far too long.

But as we limped towards Labour’s first budget, I had a touch of sympathy for our well-intentioned Prime Minister and his clear message of not overtaxing “working people”……mainly because nobody from the Labour party could define who “working people” were.

Various cabinet ministers had a jolly good go……defining them as people who rely on a pay packet and “go out” to work. Errrrrr……what about the work from home brigade? That then morphed into Keir saying he doesn’t include people with income from shares or property or who are able to solve a sudden problem “by writing a cheque”. A cheque? What next……those that send a telegram……those who have a ration book?

Labour needs to get away from silly, divisive language about prioritising workers and realise that in a 21st-century economy we just need simple and consistent messages from those that aren’t in it just for the Taylor Swift tickets.

The Numbers

Labour used a record 117 day hiatus between winning power and announcing a budget to reveal a 170 page report delivered in an 80 minute address by the first female Chancellor.

The main headlines will show that taxes will rise by £40 billion, with employer national insurance, inheritance tax and capital gains tax the main sources to suffer. The main winner of the tax was the NHS with £22.6 billion being pledged over the next two years.

RR simply took £25 billion from the private sector through an employer national insurance increase (the biggest tax rise announced) and gave it to the public sector via the NHS. Simply chucking more money at inefficiently delivered medical care without radical reform seems baffling.

It also seems baffling that the rise in capital gains tax is on shares (the second biggest tax rise) but not on property. This will see Number 11 whack productive, risk-taking investments rather than increasing the tax burden on passive property ownership.

The third biggest tax rise will come from inheritance tax, with the £325,000 threshold continuing to be frozen until at least 2030 (it has not increased since 2010) and inherited pensions brought under the inheritance tax regime for the first time from 2027. This change will see 1 in 10 now impacted by inheritance tax.

Whilst the promise to unfreeze income tax thresholds is welcome, it won’t be implemented for another four years. Or to put that another way……she will increase it just as we are going to the polling stations!

Despite the fact that the 170 page report is an incredibly interesting read (yes, really), the following summarises the key points:

- The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast that the UK economy will expand by 1.1% this year, 2.0% next year and 1.8% in 2026.

- The OBR has also forecast that inflation will average 2.5% this year and 2.6% next year before falling to 2.3% by 2026.

- The national living wage will increase by 6.7% from £11.44 an hour to £12.21 for those aged 21 and over. The increase is worth up to £1,400 a year for full-time workers. The UK will also gradually move towards a single adult rate, increasing the minimum wage for those under the age of 21 by 16.3% to £10 an hour.

- The headline rate of national insurance for employers has been increased from 13.8% at present to 15.0% per cent from April.

- The earnings threshold at which employers start making national insurance contributions, which currently starts at £9,100, has been lowered to £5,000.

Capital gains tax rises to 24% on the sales of shares and other assets, effective immediately. The rate of 10% which applies when people are selling their own businesses will rise to 14% from April 2025 and 18% from April 2026.

The non-dom tax regime that allows foreign nationals living in the UK to avoid paying tax on their overseas income has been “abolished”, removing a 50% discount for non-doms bringing foreign income into the UK in the first year.

The freeze on the inheritance tax threshold of £325,000 has been extended until 2030. Inherited pensions will be brought under the inheritance tax regime for the first time from 2027. Inheritance tax has been introduced for the first time on agricultural land and business worth more than £1 million.

The stamp duty surcharge on second homes has been raised from 3% to 5%.

The freeze on income tax thresholds will not be extended and will be uprated in line with inflation for the 2028-29 tax year.

My own favourite number of the month……4……the little lady bagged Wainwright Number 4 (Gowbarrow Fell).

Trump of the Month

I was all over the new ‘value for money’ chief being a certain for the award this month. The chairman of a new quango designed to ensure taxpayer money is being spent wisely has overseen billions of pounds of overspend and long delays on major projects such as HS2 and the renovation of Parliament. David Goldstone, who will head the Office for Value for Money, will be paid the equivalent of £247,000 per year for an average commitment of one day a week. That’s the stuff that The Trump would be proud of.

However, the Trump of the Month Award for October 2024 could only be…… Rachel Jane Reeves.

RR introduction of a whopping £25 billion tax hike on employer national insurance means all sensible companies will now be calculating the size of their bill, along with the adjustments and cuts required to pay it.

For all that the Chancellor says her first budget spares “working people” (whatever that means), businesses are made up of people. Employees and prospective employees will pay the bill in several ways……lower wages, limiting pay rises, restricting hiring or redundancies. I’m pretty sure nobody voted for that.

This is indisputably a tax on work, whatever sophistry RR may deploy about sparing the “payslips of working people”. It opens up an ever wider black hole, so to speak, between what it costs to hire and what the employee takes home, extracting yet more from the working-age population.

Having waxed lyrical about protecting working people, RR then went on national media 24 hours after her budget speech to concede: "It is likely to mean wages might be slightly less than they otherwise would have been.”

So exactly how does that spare the “payslips of working people?” 

On immediate reflection of the budget, I found myself worried and wondering whether Labour and RR really understand how the economy works in practice. I fear they are about to find out.

The Trump of the Month Award for October 2024 could only go to Rachel Jane Reeves.

Crazy on every level.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.”

Mark Twain

The Month That Was……September 2024

Maybe it’s just me, but Labour’s daily rumours, spin, counter-rumours and threats on all aspects of the Budget is getting annoying. Actually, it’s really annoying. The media has whipped the 30^th October Budget up and it is now going to be a huge event. There will be Budget winners and losers……but it’s always been that way.

Multiply that annoyance by 50 and we are close to what really troubles me……the US Presidential election. Our media is already going full on 24 hours a day on The Trump v Harris showdown……and with good reason. This is the biggest economy in the world with the most important currency in the world and we are just about to hand the baton to a new leader for the next 4 years. And these two candidates are considered to be the best that 333 million American’s can find. 

I am struggling to look on the light-hearted side of who gets in as they are just so important to UK prosperity on many levels. Why do you think Keir had dinner with The Trump this month……nobody does that through choice!

Let’s not be polite here……the issue is The Trump. It’s always The Trump. He’s the most extreme case study of just how strange someone can be if a combination of wealth and dark charisma means your behaviour goes unchecked for 78 years. The Trump has normalised chaos, false information and extreme behaviour.

When there was a second assassination attempt on The Trump this month, the global response was largely a shoulder shrug. The lack of surprise in the media was certainly noticeable. Within a couple of days The Sun’s homepage was leading with the big exclusive of M&S axing Percy Pig Phizzy Chews.

Now, I don’t want to show my age on this one but I remember when an assassination attempt on a world leader was a big deal……certainly bigger than M&S confectionary. 

And just when you think things couldn’t get any more crazy, The Trump accused Haitian immigrants of eating cats and dogs in Ohio……causing multiple bomb threats and event cancellations.

Cue, more shoulder shrugging. We are punch drunk to his idiocy.

The clock is ticking and we are running out of time to stop the car crash. We have run out of time to look on the bright side. We’re just holding on, by our fingertips, until November……and my goodness it’s painful.

 

The Numbers

The big news was linked to the US, with significant data getting the cardigan wearers very excited (mine’s blue in case you were wondering).

Figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (there are only cardigan wearers that would even know that this existed) revealed that inflation had dropped to 2.5%, slightly below Wall Street forecasts. US inflation is now at a 3 year low.

This then led to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 0.5% and signalled further reductions were likely. It was the first reduction of the US interest rate in 4 years. The stabilising of inflation and cheaper cost of debt is a clear attempt to prevent a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

UK inflation remained unchanged at 2.2% this month and it was no surprise that the Bank of England left the interest rate at 5%. 

The September inflation figure is always an important number as it determines the increase in the State Pension. Wages have grown by 4%, higher than 2.2% inflation or 2.5% under the triple lock conditions. The State Pension is set to rise by £460 a year from April,.

However, the big news for us ‘cardiganers’ came from the Commission on the Future of Employment Support (it’s one of my top 3 commissions……it really is a cracker). Their report highlighted that the UK’s workforce is shrinking at the fastest rate in 40 years, costing the economy £25 billion a year and adding £16 billion of fiscal pressure to the public finances.

A 2 year analysis into the state of the workforce has found that 800,000 people have fallen out of the labour market since the Covid-19 pandemic, the largest employment drop since the 1980s, marking out the UK as having one of the worst economic inactivity problems in the developed world.

The report came the same week as the Institute for Fiscal Studies report that 3.9 million are on sickness benefits as Covid continues to take toll. 1 in 5 working age adults is claiming sickness benefits in some areas of the country and every local authority in England and Wales (bar one) has had a rise in claims since the pandemic. The number on sickness benefits has risen to 3.9 million people, up 38% in 4 years.

The UK is almost unique among wealthy countries in experiencing such a post-pandemic surge in sickness, with experts saying Covid may have hit the country’s ailing population and NHS harder.

You see Keir, it is quite an economic and fiscal puzzle you now have to unravel.

My own favourite number of the month……50……a certain special cardigan wearer may have reached a special birthday. 

Trump of the Month

Whilst The Trump has made a damn good fight for the award this month (he normally does), we don’t need to look too far in the UK to find our own helping of lunacy. The Trump of the Month Award for September 2024 is…… Keir Rodney Starmer.

Of all the things that were going to ‘cop it’ when Labour drew up its list to fund the £22 billion black hole (they conveniently didn’t know about until after they were elected), the Winter Fuel Payment would not have been on many peoples hit lists.

Hitting some of the most vulnerable and needy first just defies logic. Why start the hit list at low-income pensioners?

For the record, around 11.6 million people in just over 8 million households received the Winter Fuel Payment last winter at a total cost of £2 billion.

Labour MP after Labour MP trotted out in front of the media to claim how appalled they were at their party and leader. So appalled in fact that 53 Labour MPs opposed the cut in Winter Fuel Payment so strongly that they, er……abstained when it came to a vote and only one voted against.

WOW……just a single Labour MP voted against. Just one. There are no words. Respect to Jon Trickett. Morals before politics……how refreshing……how rare.

The vote passed by 120 in the end. It’s not hard when you’ve got a majority as big as they have. That’s Labour’s power for you……and we gave it to them.

The vote result came on the back of reports of Keir receiving all manner of freebies, from football and concert tickets, to accommodation and clothes from a variety of donors. Very interesting especially as Keir waxed lyrical about Tory culture of privilege and cronyism since being the Labour Party Leader.

Further investigation has shown that no MP has received more free gifts than Keir over the past 5 years. Given all we have lived through with BoJo’s Government, that’s an amazing statistic.

The Trump of the Month Award for September 2024 could only go to Free Gear Keir.

Shameful stuff.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Mark Twain

The Month That Was……August 2024

August is always a funny time in my world as Parliament departs for 6 weeks of holidays along with most of the financial / economic nerds and ‘expert’ commentators.

This creates a gap in my usual reading and thinking……which creates a vacuum……which creates the need to fill it……but it always ends up being with random stuff. 

This year’s edition was another classic example……

I was listening to the radio whilst driving and Frank Skinner was being interviewed as he’s promoting his new stand up show. I then decide to google his career back catalogue. This leads me to watching random YouTube clips of him presenting the TV show, Room 101. I then spend half a day researching (google obviously) the term ‘Room 101’ for context.

And before you know it, a day has been lost falling down a George Orwell (real name - Eric Arthur Blair – you’re welcome) sized rabbit hole to create a new mini hobby……studying aspects of the English language that he has created. Terms such as ‘big brother’, ‘thought police’, ‘doublethink’ and ‘memory hole’ all trace back to George Orwell’s work. 

Anyway, ‘Room 101’ stems from George Orwell’s book, 1984, in which Room 101 was where people were tortured with their worst fears. Apparently, Orwell named Room 101 after an actual conference room in BBC Broadcasting House where he had to endure numerous tedious meetings (again, you’re very welcome).

I then emerged from the rabbit hole with a clear determination to create my own Room 101 list as a mark of respect to George Orwell’s work. It’s a comprehensive list of worst fears to be tortured by:

- Losing the end of the Sellotape……and losing the next hour of your life trying to resolve it.  

- Enduring people who still use 1990’s abbreviate text speak in messages when we live in a world of predictive text couldn’t make it any easier. Thx M8.  

- Confusing toilet signs that use characters and not words. Call me old fashioned, but I like a clear ‘Mens’ sign followed by a very obvious urinal. No confusing characters followed by embarrassing wrong choices……just efficient toilet business.

- Fishy foods in the workplace……especially if microwaved.

- Glitter on anything……especially on birthday cards. Just stop it.

- All staff in WHSmith who seem legally bound to upsell. For the record, I don't want a Telegraph with my bottle of water or a bar of dairy milk or a voucher for a calendar or a half price Richard Osman book. I am simply trying to catch a train and just wanted a drink to keep hydrated without you individually offering me every item in the shop.

- Umbrellas are the devil’s work. The amount of people who don't seem to take into account the space needs of other people around them makes these one of the deadliest weapons on our streets. If I went around randomly swinging a spiked ball on the end of a chain, it would pretty much be the same thing.

- Clingfilm. I have a success rate of 1 clean tear per 100 uses. That means I am ready to explode with anger every 99 uses.

- Courier Drivers know they have a set route, the number of deliveries, the number of parcels and generally how long it will take to complete a route. Obviously expected delivery times may vary based on people answering the door, finding certain houses and roadworks but please give me something better than the “between 08:00 and 22:00” window. Surely you can narrow down that fourteen hour window to three hours? And don't even get me started on knocking on the door and waiting three seconds for me to answer. I'm not Usain Bolt and it’s not a race.

- Shop assistants who insist on giving you your change by putting the bank note in your palm first and then balancing all the coins on top of it so you invariably drop them as you faff about trying to get the note in your purse / wallet. Coin balancer must stop. Life is too short for this nonsense.

- 110% (or multiples thereof) are utter nonsense also. “Well done! You gave that 110% effort!” No they didn’t! You can’t possibly give more than 100% effort! 100% effort is the most you can give! This applies to people who agree with someone 200% or 300%! You can’t even agree with someone 101% never mind 300%!

- Bagpipes are one of the worst things ever invented. Up there with nuclear bombs. 

- Supermarket carpark etiquette needs a complete overhaul. How is it that when you are reversing out of your parking space in the supermarket people decide to walk past as if they have a death wish or something! Or is it just my car?

- People on quiet coaches that don’t get that the clue is in the title.

And my biggest fear to be tortured by……

- People who blog as they have such a grand feeling of self-importance that they must force people to endure their written rubbish.

I am sure we can all relate to the last point.

The Numbers

Aside from the atrocious protests and riots (since when did stealing a stake bake and setting fire to a library become a ‘thing’ to make a point?), three significant events dominated the numbers this month.

The first and most significant was the new Chancellor’s address to Parliament. Rachel Reeves announced that Labour had inherited a £22 billion black hole from the Tories……the worst that any new Government has received since the Second World War. 

Reeves included a projected £6.4 billion on asylum and immigration because of the cost of accommodating people and the Rwanda refugee scheme. Military assistance to Ukraine had exceeded reserves by £1.7 billion while propping up the railways cost £1.6 billion. The bill for meeting the independent recommendations for public sector pay rises came in at £9.4 billion.

One of the most contentious announcements from Reeves was a decision to end universal winter fuel payments for pensioners, except those on benefits. The payments (worth £300) ending will impact 10 million and save the Government about £1.5 billion.

Reeves committed the Government to £9 billion of pay rises for 6 million public sector workers. NHS workers and teachers will receive pay rises of 5.5%  per cent while most other sectors will receive pay hikes of 5%. Reeves pledged to resolve the junior doctors dispute with a pay rise of 22% over 2 years.

And when you’re in a fiscal pickle, there are only 3 options available……increase taxes……reduce public services……or both. We’ve been given fair warning that it is likely to be both.

None of this fundamentally changes the longer-term challenges. The Chancellor cannot honestly announce a series of tax rises in her October budget, blame them on this economic hole that she has just “discovered” and claim that she couldn’t have known pre-election that tax rises would be needed to maintain public services. That fact was obvious to all who cared to look.

The second event was the closely-run decision (5-4) to lower interest rates to 5% (from 5.25%). The first cut since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

Headline inflation has stabilised at the Bank of England’s 2% target for the past two months (the lowest level since July 2021), with Bank governor Andrew Bailey announcing that lower inflation had paved the way for the fall in interest rates.

Financial markets predict that there is a 75% chance that UK interest rates will be cut again in November after the Labour government holds its first Budget at the end of October.

Interest rate reductions generally are definitely a theme. The Eurozone’s central bank, which sets interest rates for 20 countries that use the single currency, reduced its main deposit rate from 4% to 3.75% a month ago (the first lowering for 5 years)

The third event was the unexpected setback for the American economy, with hiring falling sharply and the unemployment rate rising.

The weak data and the US Federal Reserve’s decision this week to hold interest rates at the present 23-year high of 5.25% - 5.50% increased fears about growth prospects in the world’s largest economy.

The latest figures from the US Labour Department showed that employers had added only 114,000 jobs, 35% fewer than forecasters and that unemployment was now up to 4.3% (the highest level since October 2021).

It sparked a sharp sell-off on global stock markets with Japan’s Nikkei 225 suffering its largest one-day decline since 1987 (-12%). Quite a reaction from the world’s third largest economy!

Lost amongst these three big events was news of Labour’s incredibly ambitious target of 370,000 new homes a year. This was an increase from a target of 300,000 under the last Government, which itself was never met. Last year, just 189,000 were built.

The thing is, any target can be constructed but the magic is in actually hitting it. Exactly where is the extra labour required to expand so dramatically?

 Just before the election, the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) estimated that an extra 251,000 workers were needed over the next 5 years just to stand still on last year’s building numbers. The sector has about 55,000 vacancies.

I’m all for ambition and improvements but let’s be realistic and lose the political spin.

My own favourite number of the month……8……the number of miles kayaked on the River Tees with the little lady. 

 Trump of the Month

Let’s not beat around the bush……August 2024’s Trump of the Month award could only go to……rioters.

I was explaining the protests turned riots to a friend who was after an explanation of what was sparking the unrest. I really struggled, but here’s the best I could do……

Protest marches turned to riots to punish Muslims for the killing of three innocent little girls in Southport. However, the guilty subject was not a Muslim but a youth born in Cardiff to Rwandan parents. This mattered little and religious affiliation was not copiously vetted……just skin colour. Demonstrators weren’t hugely picky about who got a bloody nose or their car torched or their front door kicked down.

This then turned into damage being done by white British youths seeking thrills and adrenaline. Not driven by ideology or genuine rage but by a desire for excitement. I’m not sure just how much excitement you can get from throwing stones at police or looting a ‘Shoezone’ though. 

And that was it. That was the best explanation I could come up with.

Just imagine how those poor Southport grieving parents must be feeling on top of a hugely upsetting and emotional time.

Shameful, embarrassing and utterly maddening.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“The people will believe what the media tells them they believe.”

George Orwell

The Month That Was……July 2024

I like politics. I like numbers. There’s only one thing for it then……a political numbers special this month.

You’re very welcome.

After 43 days and 8 debates……Labour it is.

There was no rioting in the streets. No burning of cars. No damage to public buildings. Not even a spiteful speech here or there (Keir and Rishi actually paid each other compliments!). The most controversial thing that happened was a removal truck arriving at Number 10 a few minutes early.

In fact, it was a truly dignified transfer of power……especially compared with the treasonous chaos in the USA in January 2020 after Donald Trump lost the election there.

For the record……

14 years that included……5 Prime Ministers, 7 Chancellors, 8 Foreign Secretaries, 13 Culture Secretaries, 8 Home Secretaries and 16 Housing Ministers. If the Government were a Head Teacher, the school would be in Special Measures.

We’ve endured David Cameron’s self-loving smugness, Thereas May’s chaos, BoJo’s lies (and lies about his lies), the Liz Truss experiment and Rishi’s vanilla approach to everything.

It marks the end of 20 months of Rishi’s time in office, as Keir becomes the UK’s 58^th Prime Minister.

But some significant legacies have been left. We must continue to endure the fallout from Brexit that is costing us £100 billion a year in loss trade, we have the worst trade deficit since records began and our national debt is at £3 trillion. Now that’s a legacy.

Whist this was a spectacular victory for Labour given they came from the doldrums (their result in 2019 was their worst since 1935), the story of this election is one of an electorate showing a ruthless determination to eject the Conservatives. It was a loveless Labour landslide win.

Conservatives suffered their worst electoral defeat in history and were left with just 121 MPs. The Tory rhetoric has proved to be so divisive for the country that they also managed to divide their own party. Quite the achievement.

Labour took 412 seats, giving a majority of 174.

Liberal Democrats (remember them!) won their highest tally since 1923, taking 72 seats.

Nigel Farage became the MP for Clacton. He will finally go to Westminster after 8 attempts, 30 years after his first attempt. Thanks for that Clacton.

I found the most amusing aspect of the election was watching Tory MPs who usually talk complete (add word to suit) lose their seat. I assumed that they could finally relax, drop the party line, be themselves and finally open up……but yet they continued to talk absolute (add word to suit). Priceless. 

The most bizarre element of the election was the speed with which Keir jetted off to America. Presumably after permission from the King to form a Government we must now ask permission from the President. 

Perhaps the most worrying part of the election is the election itself.

Labour received 34% of the votes yet won 64% of the seats. Consider this……Labour’s national vote share was just 2% higher than it was in 2019 and yet it has gained 211 seats.

I tried explaining the logic of this to an American recently. I failed. I am now failing to convince myself also.

In a weak moment, I almost felt sorry for Nigel Farage……despite winning 14% of the national vote, Reform gained 4 seats, the equivalent to 1% per cent of the seat share. .

Perhaps it’s time to reconsider how voting and MP electing works in reality as there does seem to be a need for consideration given that 66% of voters did not vote Labour……yet they won handsomely.

Regardless, Labour’s share of the vote is the lowest won by a post-war single-party Government, suggesting a breadth, not a depth to its support.

British politics has changed profoundly. The challenges for those now leading it have not.

Interesting times.

Elsewhere, my own favourite number of the month……2……the number of end of School year awards the little lady won. 

Trump of the Month

So many worthy candidates this month……rich pickings in fact.

Rishi was always a strong consideration given the dreadful showing at the genny lec. The failure was spectacular yet he was probably the wrong person at the wrong time to inherit the Bojo-Truss mess that was difficult to clean up.

I wanted my Michael Portillo moment and I was not disappointed with two absolute beauties……

Firstly, Jacob Rees-Mogg lost to Dan Norris who celebrated……“We’ve got Mogg-xit done.” Joyful.

And then Lizzie went as well! Already the shortest-serving Prime Minister in history, Liz Truss also become the first former leader since 1935 to lose their seat. Double joy.

She then had the audacity to appear on US TV to proclaim that Kamala Harris isn’t qualified to lead a country. Let’s be fair, if anyone knows about not being qualified to lead a country it's Lizzie.

Not to be outdone, Nigel Farage described Kamala Harris as a “black African woman.” Just for the record and to avoid any confusion here Nige, Kamala Harris is not African……her parents are Indian and Jamaican. I imagine Kamala Harris would describe Nigel Farage as: “Exactly who is he?”

In any other month Joe Biden would have been a shoe-in. During a TV debate in front of an audience of 50 million he garbled answers and at one point he ground to a halt completely. Like a robot running out of batteries. At a later press conference, Joe B introduced Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” and he referred to Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump.” Utter madness.

And then there is The Trump. Where do we start with this?

In May he was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records. But a ruling this month grants former Presidents immunity from prosecution for “official actions” taken while in office. The official action The Trump took when in office was to sign off his business accounts whilst he was in “office” that included the hush money paid to an ‘adult’ actress and then falsifying the payment through his business.

Or to put that another way……he definitely didn’t do it but, if he did, he was President at the time and that makes it OK. He now wants immunity for things that he definitely didn’t do. Still with me?  

The craziness continued by living to tell the tale of a truly despicable assassination attempt……by a member of his own political party. Two days later he was back on stage (with Hulk Hogan) to announce JD Vance as his running mate for the election campaign……somebody that previously called him an “idiot” and “America’s Hitler.”

And then on the back of the assassination attempt and increase in coverage, the share price of The Trump’s social media company rose by a third, giving the former President a paper profit of about $1.2 billion. Nice work if you can get it.

And then the cherry on the cake……Joe B stood down from the Presidential election race as he simply couldn’t compete with the levels of craziness, limelight and increased (head scratching) support offered to The Trump. With defeat staring Jo B in the face, he stood down. Nobody wants a loss to The Trump on their CV.  

He craves madness……he makes little sense……he is a complete lunatic……but he is consistent with the craziness. Month after month. The Trump of the Month for July 2024 could only go to Donald.

Utter madness.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

““Change is the law of life, and those who look only to the past and present are certain to miss the future.”

John F. Kennedy

The Month That Was……June 2024

I’ve consciously done all I can to not get consumed by the run up to July 4^th (or “Genny Lec” if you’re under the age of 20). My daily analysis of the news over breakfast has been replaced by various distraction activities so that I don’t get consumed by reading about the demoralising state of British politics. 

Probably the highlight of my strategy was people watching over a hotel buffet breakfast recently. It’s fascinating stuff……a David Attenborough documentary in waiting. People’s food gathering techniques and tactics are simply captivating. 

There’s the ‘collector’ who likes a little bit of everything all on one plate……sausage, watermelon, curry, cheese, noodles……get it all on there in one buffet visit.

Whereas ‘the monk’ is so in control of their temptations that they manage to have one piece of brown toast and an apple. In and done in under 7 minutes.

Conversely, the ‘long hauler’ arrives at 7am and they’ll leave the table at 11am (breakfast ends at 10am). The staff have to set up around them for lunch service.

The ‘magpie’ likes mushrooms. So they think they should rightly have ALL the fried mushrooms on offer and actually take the serving dish. They eat two and leave the rest.

The ‘dawdler’ never sits down. They slowly circle the spread with a little white plate in one hand whilst scratching the back of their head with the other. Completely paralysed by choice.

The ‘three courser’ starts with good intentions (yoghurt and fruit), then treats themselves a little bit (a few mini pastries), then lets go of all control (full English with 18 hashbrowns). They normally share a table with the ‘challenger’ who assumes that an ‘all you can eat’ buffet is a challenge and attempt to eat as much as humanly possible without actually exploding.

The ‘return tripper’ forgets the butter, then the jam, sugar, teaspoon, milk, fruit, extra napkin……just about everything. They spend the majority of their time apologising for getting in everyone’s way as they try to grab what they want.

They can only dream of being the ‘one visit victor’, who only visits the buffet once and comes back with 5 plates of food and three drinks.

The ‘secret sandwich maker’ wants sandwiches for lunch. So here they are, constructing enough ham and cheese baguettes under the table to feed a bus full of tourists.

As you can see, I have filled the void caused by my self-imposed breakfast media blackout with constructive observations. 

As for me? I am definitely the ‘watching weirdo’ who collects enough from the buffet to get them through their busy day, then sits down in a corner and watches all the other guests to see what wacky food combinations they choose.

Politics avoided. Void filled. Constructive observations. Honest self-analysis of being a weirdo. Four big boxes ticked.

The Numbers

Aside from the political build up, the big news of the month was inflation hitting the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost 3 years. Inflation hit 2% this month, down from 2.3%.

Within minutes of the inflation announcement, two predictable responses followed.

Firstly, Rishi jumped on the bandwagon with the “our plan is working” rubbish, despite having no influence on inflation (or he would never have let it rise to 11.1% 2 years ago!).

Secondly, the pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates exploded.

To understand the Bank of England’s position and reluctance to reduce the interest rate requires a little scratching below the surface.  

- Food prices overall are still 25% higher than at the beginning of 2022.

- Petrol prices increased during the month, rising by 0.7p per litre.

- Services sector costs remain high and have increased by 5.7% in the last 12 months.

- Official figures on renting showed average rents paid to private landlords in the UK rose by 8.7%.

Clearly there is more to inflation than the headline figure and it was no surprise that the Bank of England held the interest rate at 5.25% (a 16 year high) for the 7^th meeting in a row.

But the continued high level of interest causes many a problem.

Mortgage arrears are at their highest for more than 7 years as many struggle at the higher interest rate level. The total value of home loan balances with arrears climbed by 44.5% (year on year) to £21.3 billion. The overall proportion of mortgage balances that are behind on payments is 1.28% and the highest level since 2016.

And if that isn’t alarming enough, there are likely to be more problems in the post……3 million UK households who are currently paying relatively low fixed mortgage rates will see monthly repayments jump by around 28% on average within 2 years when their current fixed rate ends.

Although I have been trying to avoid as much of the political nonsense as possible (or at least not be consumed by it first thing on a morning), a few interesting snippets have stood out.

- 58% of voters are politically homeless with no political party they like. Just 22% like what’s on offer. This is a resounding “none of the above” rejection of the Westminster Inn’s political menu.

- UK’s debt burden has now reached almost 100% of GDP, a 30 year high (the highest level since equivalent records began in 1993).

So it actually doesn’t matter who reaches Number 10 as the debt burden handcuffs underscore the significant challenges for the next Government. Both the Conservatives and Labour have promised to reduce debt and they will need to find £30 billion in savings or tax rises just to stabilise public debt over the next decade. If nothing else the debt level should stop another Liz Truss style off-piste fiasco! 

My favourite number of the month……321……as in 3^rd place in the 800 metres, 2^nd in the 200 metres and 1^st in the 4 x 100 metre relay.  

 Trump of the Month

It has been difficult to find worthy candidates this month that have got close to the lunatic traits of the winner. The Trump of the Month award for June 2024 could only be……Rishi Sunak

It has been a disastrous month for Rishi……perhaps his worst since he stepped into Number 10……and that’s quite a statement!

It started with him declaring that “I want to restore pride and confidence to this country,” yet he has been the man who has already been in charge of restoring pride and confidence for the past two years!

Then just a few months after claiming he couldn’t access his WhatsApp messages for the Covid Inquiry, he asked voters to “trust me to deal with cybersecurity threats to the country.” The same week NHS medical records were hacked and the Conservative Party had to refer itself to the watchdog after publishing member email addresses.

Then Rishi visited a McVities warehouse in a hi-vis jacket to rock his ‘man of the people’ look. He took two questions from staff who were later found to be Conservative Councillors posing as warehouse workers who were asked to appear in disguise.

Rishi then went full-on mental when announcing that National Service was being bought back. Who had “bringing back National Service” on their General Election bingo card? Nobody! Let’s face it, this isn’t going to work. Within hours of the policy being announced, it was clear there were no actual detailed plans for how he could make it work. Probably because the whole “fining the parents” thing would mean rewriting every understanding of what it is to be an adult.

He then went on a TV debate and claimed “back me for lower interest rates.” Firstly, he has absolutely no control over interest rates. Secondly, if he did have control, why has he allowed interest rates to be at a 16 year high since he became PM?

In the same debate, Rishi announced that “independent Treasury officials have costed Labour's policies and they amount to a £2,000 tax rise for every working family.” The next morning the Treasury Permanent Secretary responded with “civil servants were not involved in the production or presentation of the Conservative Party’s figures.” So that’s a lie then.

Rishi then left a D-Day anniversary service in France early (leaving David Cameron to stand with world leaders for photos) to return to the UK to conduct a TV interview for his General Election campaign. Read the room Rishi. Read the room.

The most enlightening quote on Rishi’s reasons for leaving early was that it was a “French thing.” I’m pretty sure it was the Second World War and that was infamously a global event!

Later that day he talked of his own sacrifices growing up…..he didn’t have Sky TV. Wow. Rishi is clearly so good at relating to ordinary people who are struggling to pay their bills that he went without Sky TV while attending a £51,000 per year public school. On the day of the D-Day anniversary, Rishi clearly felt it was the ultimate sacrifice.

When quizzed by Sky TV on all things politics, the was also asked to “tell us something interesting about yourself?”. His response……“I love Haribo and a Twix.” That was it. He eats sweet things. Stop the press.

Behaviour like this can only mean one thing……it’s a last throw of the dice by doing his best BoJo impression. You can understand the logic behind it given that BoJo was the last elected Prime Minister and we all fell blindly for it.

Rishi has left it a little late to father numerous children out of wedlock……but no doubt the Tories can probably rustle up half a dozen kids before the polls open.

The Trump of the Month award for June 2024 could only go to……Rishi.

Utter madness.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“I may be crazy, but it keeps me from going insane.”

Waylon Jennings

The Month That Was……May 2024

July 4^th it is then.

Rishi stood outside Downing Street in the pouring rain to announce the General Election. He looked dead-eyed and defeated. He couldn’t even organise an umbrella in a downpour. I genuinely felt more than a little sorry for him. Clearly, I really let myself down. 

 

All over Westminster there are hundreds of people who are frothing at the mouth with anticipation of the forthcoming duel. Wonks. Journalists. Lobbyists. MPs (mainly non-Tory ones!). They love the fight, the game, the speculating. You sense they are actually aroused.

They wait in deep undergrowth for someone on the front line to say something which contradicts the party line……or for a backbencher to appear on a phone-in and not know the price of a pint of milk. Then that’s it……they pounce with delirious glee.

I usually care about a General Election. It’s a big deal. And I certainly cared about the Brexit referendum……and still do! But some of the magic is gone this time around. The simple truth is that you can vote for a party that’s useless by accident.

The last General Election was held in December 2019 when BoJo was Prime Minister. Nobody voted for the shambles that we’ve endured since then. Or for Liz Truss. Or for Rishi.

It’s also unlikely that it will change your life in any way, shape or form.

Whoever wins will be prevented from making the changes they want by the world’s financial markets……and (hopefully) common sense. Just ask Liz Truss what happens when you lack any kind of sense.

In theory whoever wins the general election has the power to make changes but only in the same way that they have the power to drop a nuclear bomb on Luxemburg. It’s not actually going to happen.

The fact is that we will be treated to a bombardment of promises and polls in the coming weeks……all of which will be a good spectator sport. But it doesn’t really matter who wins because the pot holes will continue to make you swear, the trains will continue to be where hope goes to die, the NHS waiting lists will continue to be horrific, small boats will continue to arrive, HMRC will still take over an hour to answer a call, energy bills will continue to land on the doormat and we’ll all moan about paying taxes.

Instead, the more pressing concern is the increasing wave of people calling the election “Genny Lec”. Stop it. It’s just wrong. Just how much time are you actually saving by shortening it? Stop it now.

 

The Numbers

Hidden in the news this month was the announcement that we are officially out of recession.

GDP grew by 0.6% after two quarters of declines……the fastest rise for 2 years.

- Services grew by 0.7%

- Production grew 0.8%

- Construction fell 0.9%

Despite this, the UK economy will be worst performing in G7 next year, according to the economic think tank, OECD. Their GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 do not make pretty reading.

The main headlines were dedicated to inflation news, which fell sharply to the lowest level in nearly 3 years to 2.3% (down from 3.2% the previous month). UK inflation is now lower than US (3.4%) and the Eurozone (2.4%).

And with the classic comedy timing of a Monty Python sketch, Rishi entered from stage right to inform all that……“the plan is working”. Rishi also talked of people "feeling the benefit" of lower inflation. Yet lower inflation still means rising prices on top of previous high rises. 

He just doesn’t want to acknowledge basic economics. The inflation over the past 3 years has taken us well away from the previous 2% trend. Instead of rising by 6% since July 2021, prices have risen by 19%. I’m not feeling much “benefit” from that.

2 years ago when Rishi was Chancellor he made a speech to CBI saying he can’t stop inflation, as clamour was growing at the time to provide help for poor. And yet he popped up this month to claim he’s an economic magician. Inflation’s down but we will live with its legacy for years to come.

And just as night follows day……speculation on interest rate cuts ramped up a notch.

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast that the Bank of England has room for 3 interest rate cuts this year. The debate now is when not if. June (less likely) or August. The current level of 5.25% (a 16 year high) is clearly above the pain threshold for many and reductions can’t come quick enough.

Perhaps the bigger economic news for the ‘world’ was the US Federal Reserve announcing that US interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer as price pressures will see inflation not falling back to the 2% target in the near term. At its latest policy meeting, the world’s most powerful central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 5.25% to 5.50% range for the 9^th consecutive month.

Spare a thought for Argentina……inflation is currently running at 289%!

The lowering of inflation and increasing prospect of interest rate falls has pushed business confidence to its highest point in nearly a decade. According to Lloyds Bank’s latest business barometer index (my fourth favourite index), confidence climbed to its highest level since November 2015, up by 8 points to 50%. The data indicated that companies were growing increasingly optimistic about their trading prospects and were keen to hire more workers after grappling with rising interest rates and elevated inflation for the past two years.

Elsewhere……the Covid inquiry (remember that?) is on track to becoming the most expensive in history, costing the taxpayer at least £300,000 a day over the last year. The investigation into the pandemic has been running for almost 2 years and has spent almost £70 million in the last financial year. In total, the inquiry has cost the taxpayer £94 million so far. It is not expected to produce its final report until the end of 2026, suggesting it is on track to cost about £200 million in total. This would surpass the £195 million spent on the inquiry into the deaths of 13 people on Bloody Sunday (which lasted 12 years).

My favourite number of the month……2……coming second out of 20 teams in a regional netball tournament. 

Trump of the Month

The Trump of the Month award was always designed to acknowledge the crazy and lunatic behaviour of those in power that we trust to run the many different facets of, well, the world.

You know the sort of stuff…..

The Trump suggesting drinking bleach to ward off covid. Crazy.

Bojo shaking hands with anyone within a 3 mile radius to show how safe body contact is at the start of a pandemic. Lunatic.

Giving Liz Truss the keys to Number 10. Mental.

Letting Matt Hancock write social distancing rules, repeatedly tell the little people to obey and then break them without regret with an extra marital affair. Mad.

Suella Braverman banning tents for the homeless as they have made a “lifestyle choice.” Insane.

One constant throughout the years has been The Trump’s consistent lunacy across all aspects of his personal and public life. Not just one off acts here or there……consistent acts that leave us all feeling smug that perhaps we do have our lives in order after all.

The latest twist in The Trump’s life sums up his craziness in one beautiful example. 

The Trump had an extra marital affair with an ‘adult actress’. Hush money was paid to keep the ‘adult actress’ quiet so that the story doesn’t come out during The Trump’s run for the Whitehouse. The hush money was paid from business accounts for made up services for a lawyer. The lawyer is found guilty of fraud and serves time in prison.

Fast forward a number of years……The Trump is accused of 34 charges ranging from accountancy fraud to rigging a Presidential Election. He of course denies it and calls it a political witch hunt.

The adult actress and the lawyer are key witnesses in the resulting court case. 12 jurors deliberated for two days before reaching a unanimous verdict that The Trump is guilty on all counts.

The Trump is officially a criminal.

Speaking outside the courtroom, The Trump condemned the Judge as “corrupt and a devil” and “this was a rigged, disgraceful trial.” He has promised to appeal the decision, which will delay his sentence until after the Presidential election. Cunning.

The Trump is the first former US President with a criminal conviction and the first major party candidate to run for the White House as a felon.

The US Constitution sets out relatively few eligibility requirements for Presidential candidates……they must be at least 35, be a natural born US citizen and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

The craziest thing #1: There are no rules blocking candidates with criminal records and The Trump thinks it is still completely acceptable to run for Presidency as a criminal. “The real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people,” he confidently cried.

The craziest thing #2: The Trump campaign raised a total of $52.8 million in the 24 hours following the criminal conviction……a third of the donations coming from new donors.

The craziest thing #3: The Trump took to social media to exclaim “IF THIS CAN HAPPEN TO ME, IT CAN HAPPEN TO ANYONE!” Really? I’ll remember that the next time I cheat on my third wife with an adult actress and have to pay her off because I’m running for President.

The Trump of the Month award for May 2024 could only go to……The Trump.

Sheer madness.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“In a mad world only the mad are sane.”

Akira Kurosawa