The Month That Was……June 2025

June has been a funny old month of jumping from one video conference to another for regulatory briefings, pension legislation changes and economic guidance. I know……living the dream. It really feels like death by webinar.

One of the most disturbing things I have learnt is that we are now morphing into a completely different language. And quite frankly, I am baffled by the moronic meaningless maunder.

“Just to bring you up to speed and take a deep dive before we circle back and drill down on the granular detail” was the opening line from Hugo on my webinar last week. When Hugo caught someone smirking on video (it wasn’t me, I was wiping the blood from my eye as I had stuck a fork in it) he responded with “I am pivoting to get you up to speed so you can hit the ground running and start on a level playing field.” Wow……and this was from a compliance consultant.

The day before, Casandra provided detailed analysis of new pension legislation by delivering “no one is trying to reinvent the wheel here, I’m just reaching out to run a few ideas up the flagpole and see who grabs the low-hanging fruit.” And just for good measure, apparently it is “going to require a paradigm shift in your attitude and a step change in gear.”

When I reached my third webinar of the week, I quickly looked to see who was presenting…….Dave. Thank goodness for that. A proper steady name and one that won’t be new-world brown box thinking. That was until the second minute when he let me down with “no one is trying to reinvent the playing field because I just wanted to loop you into a holistic approach from the get-go.” That handy fork was now in my other eye.

Perhaps the most disturbing thing of all is that the linguistic disease is highly contagious. I have since found myself “putting ducks in a row”, “getting plenty of boots on the ground”, “optimising the visuals” and “synergise to energise”.

Be very careful out there guys as it’s like the wild west as the sound bar is totally transmittable.

I’m off for some blue sky thinking to ensure I am an early adopter to move the needle on all things mission critical to ensure core competency.

Or alternatively, shoot me now.

 

The Numbers

This month’s numbers were dominated by Rachel Reeves Spending Review and announcement to Parliament.

The hours, days, weeks and even months after a Spending Review can feel like peeling away the layers of an onion.

First, there is the speech from the chancellor in the Commons: the political rhetoric and the numbers often designed to sound big but which are often incomprehensible. Then there are accompanying documents……in this instance in particular a blue-covered, 128 page tome crammed with words, numbers and graphs.

And as the detail is pored over, elements that were not put up in lights by the chancellor become clearer.

The main political message of the spending review was to announce plans to “renew Britain”, betting that £20 billion a year in extra funding for public infrastructure such as railways, roads and power would spur the economy and improve living standards by the time voters go to the polls. Reeves promised an extra £29 billion a year for the NHS and cut spending elsewhere to channel money to “our most treasured public service”.

Reeves’s ferociously tight numbers leave no room for downturns, pay strikes, trade wars or shooting wars. Her plans also depend on £14 billion in hazily detailed “efficiency savings”. Significant tax rises look far more likely come the next Budget in Autumn.

Public spending is running at 44% of GDP, a historic high. Taxes, too, are historically high and universally expected to go higher.

Her report highlighted that, not only have we been spending like crazy (not least because of the pandemic) but we’ve been spending money we don’t have. The resulting annual bill of more than £100 billion just to cover the interest on our debts is quite the burden.

These numbers can be hard to put into context so consider this way of looking at it……we are now spending £23,757 for every adult in this country, which is roughly 65% of the average full-time salary (£37,500). That includes £3,807 on health, £5,817 on welfare and pensions and a shocking £1,955 for that debt bill.

Now, just for a bit of fun……restrict the calculation to those of working age and spending is above £30,000 a head. Factor in economic inactivity and the state is spending nearly as much as workers aged 18 to 65 are earning.

This is very obviously not sustainable, so is Rachel Reeves the right person to find the solution?

Elsewhere……

Love or loath, Amazon is ploughing in another £40 billion to the UK over the next 3 years for yet more expansion plans. Amazon is now one of the UK’s top 10 private employers with 75,000 members of staff.

And spare a thought for Elon Musk……his net worth dropped by $34 billion in a day as his personal feud with The Trump hit Tesla’s share price. The fortune of the world’s richest man fell to $335 billion, with his net worth declining by $98 billion since January. It is clearly an expensive hobby to be associated with the orange one.

My favourite number this month was……800……the little lady put on a fine display in the 800 metres at sports day.

 

Trump of the Month

There was some classic lunacy at front and centre stage this month and it wasn’t hard to find.

Elon Musk and The Trump ended their bromance over social media in a tit-for-tat slanging match in response to Musk disagreeing with The Trump’s proposed economic bill. Musk declared "I'm the reason Trump won!" and that The Trump was on "Epstein’s client list!" What Musk failed to mention is that he spent $275 million to elect a man he apparently knew to be ‘associated’ with Epstein. Crazy.

The Trump rose the lunacy stakes further by placing a travel ban on 12 countries after the targeted Boulder terror attack, yet didn’t ban the country where the attacker was from (Egypt).

There are clues as to why that is the case……the US and Egypt have a strong defence alliance……a partnership that the US calls a "pillar for regional stability". Egypt is one of the biggest beneficiaries of US economic and military aid in the Middle East, receiving a total of $1.4 billion from US agencies.

Then there was The Trump bombing Iran. In typical fashion……he created a problem……backed down……said he solved the problem……patted himself on the back.

And don’t get me started on Rachel Reeves desperate political u-turn on the winter fuel payment. It’s amazing how things change. Just a few months ago Rachel Reeves told us the financial situation was so grim she had no choice but to take the winter fuel payment from all but the poorest pensioners. And now, thanks to Labour, it’s all going so well she can afford to give it back. Utter madness. She must be on borrowed time.

All worthy, but this month’s Trump of the Month for absolute dedication to lunacy is……Daniel Hannan. I have waited 9 long years for this.

This month marked the ninth anniversary of the EU referendum of June 2016. This is a date that will be seared in many of your brains and will, for all the wrong reasons, be a permanent fixture in history books.

What you might not be aware of is that June 2025, is also a symbolic month……this is the date that featured in an article written by Conservative Party member, Vote Leave co-founder and former MEP……Daniel Hannan.

In his piece written two days before the referendum, Hannan invited us to cast our minds forward to June 2025 and imagine a utopian world where Britain is no longer part of the European Union. He writes of Independence Day celebrations with fireworks, improved relations with the EU and a country where the economy, democracy and liberty have all been reinvigorated thanks to nine years outside the EU.

Meanwhile, in Hannan’s imaginary world, the EU “continues to turn inwards, clinging to its dream of political amalgamation as the euro and migration crises worsen. Its population is ageing, its share of world GDP shrinking and its peoples protesting.”

And the article goes on like this for several paragraphs of sunlit Brexit uplands.

Of course, none of this has come to pass. Instead, Brexit has left the UK isolated, had a disastrous impact on the economy and is widely acknowledged by even the staunchest Brexiteers as being a failure of epic proportions.

And what of Hannan now? What was his punishment for misleading voters? A peerage to the House of Lords by none other than……Boris Johnson. If anybody knows anything about lunacy and being rewarded for failure, it’s Bo Jo.

Good luck explaining that to any rational person. UK political craziness as its finest.  

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“One person's craziness is another person's reality.”

Tim Burton

The Month That Was……May 2025

Conquering and improving allows me to grow and build confidence as a person. It makes me a better version. I am always looking to test myself and May has been a challenging month for sure.

I managed to bring the emptied wheelie bin back in without having a quick peek inside first. It was a struggle to begin with but then a significant win.

I took a taxi journey and avoided asking “you been busy” and I didn’t end the journey with “anywhere here’s fine.” I know, revolutionary.

I walked past a large house without making the usual boring comment on what the heating bill must be like and how I wouldn’t like to cut the grass. Progress.

I didn’t stare at the washing machine for the first few spins after switching it on just to make sure. A small victory.

I visited a garden centre and was able to resist the thrill of having a go on a swinging garden bench. I also avoided buying what is essentially a home-made jar of Branston Pickle, just not as nice, for £8. And just to show off, I refused all offers of help to carry compost to the car despite completely forgetting that I have the strength of a child. Treble win.

I ventured to my Sainsburys Local, placed the items on the shop counter and managed to avoid the compulsory “just these please.” Clearly a win in any decent person’s eyes. However, it created a counter problem in that the shop assistant then asked, “is that everything”. It was a bolt out of the blue……I just didn’t see it coming. I might need to go back to the drawing board on this one. I did manage to hand over a note to pay without adding "sorry I don't have any change" (as if the shop doesn't have a till full of coins). A small victory.

(no, I didn’t use the self check out……I decided I could better use the 20 minutes trying to “find item” that needed weighing).

I avoided telling anyone within earshot that I am “all over the place this week with which day it is” due to a bank holiday. Which psychopath puts two bank holidays in May anyway? That’s a double challenge. This was my biggest win of the month.

It’s not all been straight wins though……there is still room for improvement.

I still haven’t managed to avoid saying ''it looks like rain'' at the sight of a few dark clouds……or trying the handle after locking the door, just in case……or whispering "you're welcome" as quietly as possible when I hold the door open for someone who offers no gratitude……or pay for petrol without looking back at the pump number 12 anxious times before paying.

I am sure you would agree that I’ve had a positive month of personal growth……but clearly it is a work in progress. Still plenty to work on.

 

The Numbers

Like him or not (no need to answer that one), the big news centred on The Trump’s inconsistent (who would have thought it) approach to trade tariffs and three deals that he has / hasn’t struck. The moving of economic goalposts on an (almost) hourly basis will have the most astute dizzy……so sit tight……here goes……

US Trade Deal #1

From absolutely nowhere, the UK was first in line. Now, I have been pretty scornful of Keir’s kiss ass approach to The Trump and the grovelling way he has bowed to the President with a letter from the King. However, he might just have played a decent hand.

The economic deal reduced tariffs on car imports from 27.5% to 10% and tariffs on steel and aluminium to 0%. The blanket 10% tariff on UK exports to the US remains in place. Keir said that “it was jobs saved, jobs won but not job done.”

However, given the starting point and The Trump’s attitude to tariffs on other countries, it felt like a win (of sorts).

US Trade Deal #2

Well, not so much of a deal……more a pause on being an idiot. The United States and China agreed to pause reciprocal tariffs temporarily and co-operate to avoid rupturing the global economy. When The Trump announced 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, it felt like an act of economic war……with a 60% chance of a recession the world over predicted.

Much lower tariffs between China and the US, albeit for 90 days, will further fortify hopes that The Trump is still a dealmaker at heart. Fingers crossed.

US Trade Deal #3

Again, not so much of a deal……more a slap in the face if you don’t bring the teacher an apple. If you are not playing the game properly, The Trump will flex his muscles in a breath. Just ask the EU……as he has announced a 50% tariff on all EU goods from 1^st June (then extended by a month for no apparent reason) as he complained that the EU was “very difficult to deal with” and that “our discussions with them are going nowhere”. Perhaps Keir deserves a little credit after all.

Despite The Trump claiming at the start of the month that he had already “struck 200 deals” on tariffs with foreign leaders and that negotiations with foreign powers would be “finished within 3 – 4 weeks”, he has yet to release details of any agreements other than with the UK.

Still with me?

Then from absolutely nowhere, The Trump’s economic agenda was thrown into turmoil when a federal court ruled that his worldwide tariffs were unlawful and should be overturned. A panel of three judges on the US Court of International Trade found that Trump lacked the authority to begin his trade war and the court ordered the tariffs be “vacated”.

Where does that leave us? Who knows……to be continued……

The best way to track The Trump saga is to watch the yield on treasuries. These are the bonds the United States Government issues to raise money (their version of a gilt). Yields reflect what markets think about the credibility of a Government’s finance plans…….it’s a simple measure of confidence.

3 years ago the rate on the 30-year treasury was just 3%. To put it another way, investors wanted a 3% return to agree to lend money to the US Government for 30 years. Now it is 5%. It has only been this high twice in 20 years. What is remarkable this time is how quickly US yields have risen to show a significant lack of confidence in The Trump’s trade plans.

Then add in the impact to US companies that build and provide services across borders, the situation is a chaotic mess. Take Apple as an example (see last month’s Trump of the Month)……the tariffs will cost the company about $900 million in the current financial quarter alone.

Whilst all of the topsy-turvy trade talk continues, The Trump is trying to push through a tax cuts bill in what he described as “one big beautiful bill” that would continue the cuts made during his first term. In other words, he wants to raise debt beyond the bulging $2 trillion a year budget deficit. It was no surprise that the US has been stripped of its top-notch credit rating by Moody’s.

A little closer to home……

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, the 9 member panel that sets the base interest rate every 6 weeks, voted 5 - 4 in favour of lowering borrowing costs by 0.25% to 4.25%. However, with the latest gloomy inflation data, interest rates are not predicted to lower much further in 2025. 

UK inflation jumped to its highest level in more than a year……pushed higher by a range of household bills rising sharply in “awful April”. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said inflation climbed to 3.5% (up from 2.6%) the steepest level since January 2024. Food inflation climbed to 3.4% and services inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank of England, rose to 5.7% and above the Bank’s expectation.

Keir announced a second trade deal of the month……with India, the 5^th largest economy in the world. Presumably this was a little easier without The Trump flexing his orange muscles? Most important of all is the opportunity it gives the UK to catch up after years of underperformance in trade with India. India is only the UK’s 12^th largest export market and the UK has only a 2.1% share of India’s imports despite more than 9,000 businesses exporting there. There is clearly scope for these figures to be improved upon.

India will remove or reduce tariffs on 92% of UK goods exports and UK firms will be granted access to around 40,000 Indian procurement contracts with a value of at least £38 billion a year.

And then for the hattrick……a new trade deal with the EU. Since the UK formally left the EU in 2020, trade and cooperation between the two sides have been governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). However, this arrangement led to significant friction, particularly for food exporters, manufacturers and travellers. UK exports to the EU fell by 21% and imports by 7% since Brexit. So, Keir set about a “more promising and pragmatic, growth-focused approach.”

The devil is always in the detail and the small print will take quite some time to truly understand the benefits of the new trade deal. However, the biggest concession that the UK had to make was extending the agreement that grants EU fishing vessels continued access to UK waters……for 12 years!

My favourite number this month was……23……a company birthday……the number of years that Davison Smith has been trading!

Trump of the Month

Quite a gaggle of worthy nominees to consider this month……

Donald John Trump was a strong consideration. After digesting the news that he has the lowest approval rating after 100 days of a President in 80 years, he went rogue by suggesting the need to reopen Alcatraz as there has to be another place in the US for dangerous repeat criminals.  Presumably, the White House only has so much room. This was closely followed by a declaration that “I’d like to be Pope.” Wow.

George Gideon Oliver Osborne (remember him?) emerged as a strong candidate. NatWest has taken another step towards escaping the shadow cast by its £45.5 billion taxpayer rescue after its stock price rose above the bailout price for the first time in more than 14 years. The downside is that the Government has been selling NatWest shares at far lower prices for years and now owns less than 1% of the company. The taxpayer will have made a multibillion-pound loss on the rescue because all previous sales of NatWest stock have occurred below the bailout price! Yeah, good one George. Farcical.

Edward Samuel Miliband (another blast from the past) put himself in the running as a report highlighted that his department racked up a bill for domestic flights worth more than £40,000 during Labour’s first 6 months in power.

And just for absolute clarity……Ed is the Energy & Net Zero secretary! The trips come on top of overseas travel by Miliband, who has also undertaken long-haul journeys to attend international summits aiming to tackle climate change. Astounding hypocrisy!

Elsewhere, a Government report has been produced that suggests that insider dealing could be taking place before as many as 1 in 3 company takeovers in the UK……but yet it still continues. If only we lived in a developed country with the most heavily regulated financial systems in the world. Ah……

All worthy of consideration but this month’s Trump of the Month was thoroughly deserved by…… Nigel Paul Farage.

Farage has all the characteristics of craziness to rival The Trump if he was given a little more limelight to shine on some of his antics. Some of his lunacy goes under the radar, which is such a shame quite frankly.

Never one to miss an opportunity to flex his racist muscles on immigration, enter Farage from stage right to proclaim that it will be “20% cheaper to employ an Indian worker” as part of the new UK-India trade deal. It stoked a fire with certain elements of society that don’t need much prodding……yet Farage selectively missed the point……and truth.

At the heart of Farage’s issue is a provision in the trade deal that Indian workers will no longer have to pay national insurance contributions for up to three years while in the UK and will now be 20% cheaper to employ. 

Yet the point is, it stops the need for workers on short-term visas from paying social security and national insurance in both the country they work in and their home country. What Farage has selectively failed to mention is that the UK has similar reciprocal agreements with more than 50 other countries, including the US and EU. All the UK has done is extend the double contribution convention to one more country.

Farage and Reform UK position themselves as defenders of UK workers……yet this is simply a headline grabber for Daily Mail readers.

Farage has taken this right out of The Trump lunacy playbook……and that should be recognised and commended. Utter craziness.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Racism is a refuge for the ignorant. It seeks to divide and to destroy."

Pierre Berton

The Month That Was……April 2025

Oh, man. Where do I even start with April 2025?

I guess I better get the two ‘t’ words out of the way first……Trump……tariffs. There was a third ‘t’ word but my daughter reads this. You get my drift though.

If you are a little t-worded out, now would be a logical place to hop off. No offence taken……I get it.

To understand the whole tariff mess, there is a need to understand why The Trump is doing it firstly. In essence, The Trump doesn’t like the global trading system. For more than a generation, the US economy has been dragged hideously out of shape by a massive financial distortion caused by the way investors use the dollar.

The dollar solves a dilemma. When a country accrues lots of savings, perhaps because it sells huge amounts of oil or has built a whole economy around battery or semiconductor exports, it needs to store the cash. Storing it in the country’s own currency presents two problems.

The first is that a lot of these countries have volatile exchange rates because they are ruled by thieving dictators or because their financial markets are very small so it’s risky to have all the money in local unstable currency. The second is that if they convert their savings into local cash, they’ll push their exchange rate up and that will make their exports more expensive until they become uncompetitive (killing the golden goose).

So, they don’t let that happen. Instead, what all these Governments and Sovereign Wealth Funds (plus a few rich families and pensions) do is buy US Treasury Bonds. The US Treasury Bond market is seen as big and stable, open to anyone and underpinned by the rule of law.

And when I say big……$27 trillion……or for theatrical drama…… $27,000,000,000,000.

The outcome is that dollars, in the form of US Treasury Bonds, have become the backbone of the world’s piggy bank. And The Trump doesn’t like that. He sees the money being made by Governments around the world through the charging of tariffs that the US must pay for their imports. These profits are being converted to dollars and keeps the dollar exchange rate artificially high, which impacts US ability to sell their more expensive goods.

So, in The Trumps eyes there is only one thing for it……reciprocal tariffs. If you want to sell your product / service to the US and you are not a US company making the product / service in the US, then you will pay a tariff to do so.

The Trump announced the tariffs in a speech like a game show. What did your country win (or get away with)? He named it “Liberation Day” and 2 April 2025 will be studied by many generations to come. The UK got off lightly at 10%......China took a hit at 145%.

The financial markets hated it as the outcome of the tariffs was clear for the rest of the world……economic gloom likely to lead to recession……increased inflation……higher interest rates. It was no surprise that within a week The Trump reversed out of the tariffs by announcing a 90 day delay so he could figure out the mess he created.

And what a mess. Classic Trump.

April Fool’s Day just hasn’t got the same spark about it anymore. I blame The Trump……he acts like it’s April Fool’s Day every day.

The Numbers

In response to Liberation Day, the US stockmarket fell 10.5% over a 2 day period……the biggest fall for 5 years. Then when he reversed out of the tariffs with a 90 day delay, the index gained 9.5%......the third-largest one-day return since 1987.

Volatility that only The Trump can create. He really will test Americans threshold for pain this year.

What does this all mean for the UK?

More than £60 billion worth of British goods are exported to the US each year. The Trump’s tariffs threaten sectors from pharmaceuticals to whisky. Most of those exports are now going to be subject to a 10% tariff, although there will be some exemptions and some higher rates. The Trump published a list of more than 8,000 products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs.

Predictions on the exact financial impact to the UK economy is not an exact science, given that The Trump is full of contradictions and throwing exemptions about for fun.

However, as little as a 0.6% reduction in GDP would wipe out Rachel Jane Reeves’s budget headroom and force her to find almost £18 billion worth of further savings or tax rises. Even a slender 0.2% reduction would result in a £6.2 billion hit to the economy,

The key sectors that will take the biggest hit are likely to be cars, pharmaceuticals, food and drink.

As a whole, US imports of vehicles amounted to $217 billion last year, 6.6% of all goods imported. The US is the UK’s second largest car export market (after the EU), with exports of more than 101,000 units in 2024, equating to £9 billion of cars. There is now a 25% tariff on UK car imports to the US, with up to 25,000 jobs at stake.

Pharmaceutical goods are one of Britain’s top exports to the US, with exports to the country worth £6.5 billion last year. GSK makes more than 50% of its sales in the US and AstraZeneca 40%.

Big figures and a likely big impact……unless we see further reversals from The Trump.

Talking of reversals……Elon Musk performed an amazing U-turn. Having literally been The Trumps ‘go to man’, he announced that he was standing down from Government responsibilities. Perhaps it had something to do with Tesla’s income falling by 39%......or Tesla shares falling by 37% this year. It appears to be expensive to be a friend of The Trump.

Another key measure of confidence in The Trump’s tariffs is the price of oil……with the price falling below $60 for the first time in more than 4 years during April.

As a little light relief, my favourite number this month was……11……the (not so) little lady turning 11 on her birthday!

Trump of the Month

There could only by one winner of the Trump of the Month award for April 2025……Donald John Trump.

To understand how out of touch he is on the reality of how products are made, the answer is probably in your pocket……the iPhone. Consider the journey of an iPhone microchip……the small wafer that powers the supercomputer in our back pockets (it is half the size of a 5p coin).

To make a microchip, white lumps of quartz are mined in Galicia, Spain, before being smelted in Berghausen, Germany. This “polysilicon” is then flown to Oregon, United States, where a Japanese company turns them into silicon wafers, before being shipped halfway round the world again to Taiwan.

There, arguably the most important company in the world (the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – TSMC) takes these wafers and, following designs from British-based, Japanese-owned Arm, etches semiconductors into them using a machine made exclusively in the Netherlands.

The chip then zips up to Malaysia for inspection and wiring. It then lands in Zhengzhou, China where workers for Taiwanese-owned Foxconn attach it to the rest of the phone. From mine to motherboard for just £35 a chip.

If the iPhone were swept up in the tariff war, the cost of the end product would double. There are about 150 million iPhone users in America, comprising almost 60% of the market (the UK is 45%). It is the indispensable consumer product (even The Trump uses one) that any President would do well to avoid doubling in price.

So there was only one action available to The Trump……to perform one of his customary U-turns……and exempted smartphones and semiconductor chips from the new tariffs.

It was a victory for Silicon Valley, proving the power it can exert on The Trump. It also demonstrated the limits of The Trump’s understanding, rhetoric and freedom to operate.

Two things can be true at the same time……US companies are still the best and most innovative in the world and there is no current alternative to Chinese manufacturing. Capitalism at the end of the day will prevail.

The Trump’s craziness has been taken to a whole new level……it’s almost admirable. Almost.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“History never repeats itself; man always does."

Voltaire

The Month That Was……March 2025

I recently had a milestone birthday and a very kind client and friend (thank you Sarah) gifted me a copy of the Financial Times from the day of my birth. For a financial and political geek, it was a fascinating read. The narratives centred around:

- Scrutiny and concern as the UK moved from a Conservative to Labour Government.

- Concerns regarding the competence of the Republican US President (Gerald Ford).

- The Israeli Prime Minister (Yitzhak Rabin) visiting the US to discuss military aid.

- The UK Government meeting with banking leaders to discuss loosening lending controls.

- UK inflation (16%) and high interest rates (12%) causing major problems for the economy.

- Significant tensions in the Middles-East caused by OPEC controlling oil production and prices.

My overwhelming reaction to reading the 50 year old newspaper (I know, baby faced……doesn’t look old enough……blah, blah) was that nothing has actually changed. 50 years, countless state leaders and significant economic / political / humanitarian events and absolutely nothing has changed. Our world is still dominated by the same core issues and political sparing. So very sad.

Presumably, everyone was still utterly shocked back then at how light it was at night after the clocks went forward. It still gets me every year to be fair.

   

The Numbers

Two key themes dominated the figures this month……Trump Tariffs and the Spring Statement.

Tariffs are a central part of The Trump's economic plans to boost US manufacturing and protect jobs, as well as raising tax revenue and grow the economy. Goods from China, Mexico and Canada accounted for more than 40% of imports into the US in 2024 and The Trump has accused the three countries of not doing enough to end the flow of migrants and illegal drugs such as fentanyl into the US.

He has now expanded this further with a worldwide 25% tariff on all imported cars to the US. A big deal? In 2024, the United States imported approximately 7.68 million cars, with a total value of $219.49 billion. And for those of you without a scientific calculator close to hand…… $28,590 per car. It was no surprise that more than £14 billion was wiped off the value of the world’s biggest carmakers as a consequence.

And now for The Trump contradiction……5 years ago The Trump visited a car plant in Michigan and called the reformulated US trade deal he oversaw with Canada and Mexico (the USMCA), “the fairest, most balanced and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law — it’s the best agreement we’ve ever made.” Fast forward to this month he said: “Canada is a tariff abuser, and always has been, but the United States is not going to be subsidising Canada any longer.” Let’s be clear here……it was his trade deal in the first place!

Regardless, the fallout from this and further tariffs is going to be difficult for a short period as we all figure out the impact. Investment markets will definitely wobble on the back of the uncertainty.

And then it was the turn of Rachel Jane Reeves to enthral us with tales of economic doom in her Spring Statement. "The world has changed" is the mantra we are hearing from the Government and it is a phrase designed to explain and justify the Chancellor's argument.

The backdrop is pretty bleak. The economy is flatlining, inflation is up and Government borrowing costs are up.

Then there are the big-picture challenges: the UK has an ageing population, the benefits bill is going skywards, the dangerous international picture is demanding more money for defence and the country is saddled with huge debt, which attracts huge debt interest payments. And that’s before we throw in the unpredictability of The Trump, the looming prospect of tariffs and the vast uncertainty over Ukraine's future and European security.

What we do know from the Spring Statement is:

- UK Government debt will hit a near £600 billion interest bill over the next five years amid hundreds of billions of pounds of new borrowing. Researchers at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated that the UK’s annual debt interest spending bill would exceed £100 billion every year until 2030 and warned that the debt pile could come close to eclipsing the size of the economy.

- The OBR halved its 2025 economic growth estimate from 2% to 1% and said that inflation would climb to 3.8% in the summer from 2.8% in February.

- The increased cost of public debt saw the Chancellor bounce into welfare cuts for the poorest and most vulnerable, raided the foreign aid budget to fund defence expenditure and has trimmed the already modest rise in departmental spending to create the needed £9.93 billion. That may sound like a lot but it's a relatively small amount in an economy that spends £1 trillion a year and raises around the same in tax.

To put the above a little more succinctly, Rachel Jane Reeves is running even faster just to stand still.

It was a bleak statement and there is an increasing likelihood that we will have to raise UK taxes in October’s Budget……again, just to stand still.

And the bleakness continued as we hit April, with 7 bills all going up:

- Water

- Energy

- Council Tax

- Car Tax

- Broadband / Phone

- TV licence

- Stamp Duty

My favourite number of the month……4……not quite the ‘1’ we were hoping for but finishing 4^th in the national netball finals was still an amazing achievement.  

Trump of the Month

Aside from using the White House as a Tesla showroom to promote his mate’s cars and slapping tariffs on everything except Budweiser, The Trump has been remarkably quiet……well, by his standards.

My personal favourite this month was The Trumps announcement that the US was placing a 200% tariff on all wines, champagnes and alcoholic products coming out of France. “This will be great for the champagne businesses in the US,” declared The Trump.

Why did none of his advisers explain to him that the US legally CANNOT produce its own Champagne? American Champagne isn’t a thing……it’s called US sparkling wine. He literally threatened tariffs to boost an industry that simply doesn’t exist. Peak Trump economics. Priceless!

Anyway, a quieter Trump very much left the gate open for some new candidates to be considered for services to madness and lunacy this month.

The company behind HS2 (creatively named HS2 Ltd - as creative as their logo!) has revealed that they spent £20,000 on a Lego model of one of its proposed stations that was “about the size of a kitchen table.” For any parent, there is one thing that really stands out in this story……this is the only part of the HS2 project they actually got value on. Back when the little lady was hooked on Frozen Lego, I recall spending roughly that amount on a model of the Frozen Palace, complete with central characters. It was barely the size of a shoebox.

Maybe HS2 Ltd should have built the whole network out of Lego……repeatedly stepping on sharp pieces of Lego in their bare feet would have given the company a fair sense of how the project was going to go down with the public.

Seriously though, £20,000? Absolute lunacy.

Then there was Doug Ford who dared to take on The Trump. The leader of Canada’s most populous province, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, threatened to cut off power to 1.5 million Americans “with a smile on my face” in response to The Trump’s import duties. Red rag to an orange bull……what was he thinking? Nutter.

Cop 30 will be held in Brazil in November in which the Brazilian President (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) has banged the drum about an historic summit because it is "a COP in the Amazon, not a COP about the Amazon".

Lula has been promoting the meeting of 50,000 environmental leaders will provide an opportunity to focus on the needs of the Amazon, show the forest to the world and present what the federal government has done to protect it.

What Lula has failed to promote is the new four-lane, 8 mile long highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest being built to transport the attendees. Madness.

Keir Rodney Starmer made another return as a worthy candidate. Responding to the threat of The Trump's tariffs, he said "all options are on the table." Presumably that was everything from “keeping quiet”, to “doing nothing”, to “keeping quiet and doing nothing.” Spineless stuff.

All worthy candidates but The Trump of the Month for March 2025 is……Michael George Glen Waltz

For those that avoid US politics (I appreciate it is almost impossible) Waltz is the current US national security advisor to The Trump. Unfortunately, he added a journalist to a top-secret US military strategy group chat discussing the US bombing the Houthi in Yemon.

I am not sure what is worse……the most paranoid nation on earth that will spend $850 billion on defence in 2025 using WhatsApp to strategically mastermind its military attacks……or the lack of security protocol in adding randoms to group chats……or Pete Hegseth (US Defence Secretary) labelling Europe “a pathetic bunch of freeloaders looking for Trump to bail them out” when discussing the bombing.

Actually, I do know what is worse……The Trump trying to distance himself from an embarrassing intelligence leak by claiming "I don't know anything about it", which is one of the few things completely believable when it comes to The Trump and 'intelligence'.

The US bombing the Iranian backed Houthis rebels that can only cause significant tensions with a dangerous middle east enemy……why would The Trump know anything about it!

The irony is that the most well-informed, intellectually competent person on the chat was the one that wasn’t supposed to be there.

Presumably a ‘Dummies Guide To WhatsApp’ is on its way to Waltz.

Absolutely crazy on every level.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“If you accept the institutional lunacy, then the policies are rational."

Noam Chomsky

The Month That Was……February 2025

My New Year resolution to get fitter and run more has (remarkably) got to a second month. I know…..go me! I have always run with headphones blasting out anything to help me to zone out and not feel the pain. However, the one downside is (all too often) not hearing a large moving vehicle that is quite happy to mow me down. It creates a scene not too dissimilar to a middle aged man dressed in dayglow lycra being caught in the headlights. It’s not pretty and near death experiences are very overrated. Reluctantly, I’m now a headphoneless runner.

Whilst cars are now more often than not dodged, it does permit my mind a regular opportunity to freestyle whilst I cough, splutter, swear and limp around another 10K course. And it is a very random freestyle. Very. This month’s highlights include:

- Nothing unclean ever goes into the cutlery drawer, yet it still gets dirty. Is the cutlery drawer where the best utensil parties occur at night? It’s one of life’s great mysteries.

- I still remember the phone number for swapshop……01 811 8055. Yet in an accident, I wouldn’t be able to give my wife’s phone number for emergency use……or any number in fact…… other than the direct hotline to Noel Edmonds and Keith Chegwin.  

- Is there a more ungainly activity than carrying the hoover upstairs?

- There is no longer walk in life than when a staff member shows you to an item on the other side of a big shop. Perhaps some prepared ramble for the walk would help ease the awkwardness. “I did have a good look, but for some reason, I just couldn't seem to see it.” Followed by forced laugh. “I did wonder if they'd maybe moved it to anoth..., ah, there it is. Cheers." That should do it. 

- And while we’re here……there is no longer wait known to mankind than people who get to the till and wait for all the shopping to be scanned and still haven't got their wallet / purse out. Let alone the compulsory fishing around inside said wallet / purse for the correct card or, worse still, pennies lying deeply buried for decades. Come on……life’s too short for such a lack of efficiency.

- Why is pancake day in March this year? You really can’t make this up. Who is deciding this rubbish? I’ll blame Trump.

- I’ll never understand the “Yorkshire pudding only goes with beef!” people. Imagine restricting yourself like that. Yorkshire pudding goes with everything. Free your minds.

- Why is it compulsory to announce that “you managed to find us then?” when someone visits your house for the first time? Stop it. Stop it now.

- Smoking must have reduced drastically because I can’t remember the last time I was asked if I had a lighter. Which means it’s been years since I have been able to apologise to a stranger for not smoking. In fact, I can’t remember being asked "have you got the time please" in years. It’s also a rarity now.

- Placing your head on a just flipped pillow in the middle of the night is right up there with the birth of my daughter. Such an amazing feeling.

- There are only two types of cats. Ones that like their tummy being tickled and those who will slice you like a confidential document shredder if you so much as brush past them.

Perhaps the safer option is to wear headphones and dance with the cars than let my mind freestyle. Perhaps.

The Numbers

Every so often a report slaps you in the face and provides a context to all that is going on in the UK currently. New World Wealth, the global analytics firm, produced a report that I found simply staggering……the UK lost 10,800 millionaires over the last year as the wealthy sort more stable politics and tax regimes.

Why so important?

30% of the total UK income tax was paid by the wealthiest 1%. 50% of total UK income tax was paid by the top 5%.

Millionaires leaving the UK is not good. You know the tax system is messed up when the proceeds from gambling are 100% tax free……whilst your life savings are taxed at 40% when you die.

Rachel Reeves is part of the problem not the solution until she changes direction. In the meantime, the impact of her thoughtless Budget continues to bite harder……

Food inflation is now expected to rise between 4.5% and 5.5% this year.

Why?

The Chancellor announced in the Budget that, from April, the threshold on employee earnings at which businesses begin to pay national insurance will drop from £9,100 to £5,000, the rate will also increase from 13.8% to 15%  and the minimum wage for over-21s is rising by 6.7% to £12.21.

These changes are particularly painful for retailers, which employ many part-time workers on low wages and for companies that produce fresh food, where labour comprises up to 60% of production costs. The rising of employment costs to companies will simply be passed on to consumers. And that’s inflation……something Rachel Reeves struggles to understand. 

It is no coincidence that consumer confidence has reached a 12-month low and the employment market is in its longest downturn since 2000.

There was no surprise that the Bank of England cut interest rates in February from 4.75% to 4.50%, the third reduction in six months. It also now expects the economy to grow by just 0.75% this year, half its November forecast of 1.50%. Interestingly, 2 of the 9 monetary policy committee voted to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, which is a striking summary of the state of the UK economy.

How’s that ‘budget for growth' working out for you now Rachel Reeves? Absolutely clueless.

My least favourite number of the month……£700,000……the cost of Keir Starmer’s flights to the taxpayer in 3 months. This is more than the 3 previous PMs combined! To be fair though, one of those didn’t even make it to 3 months!

And my favourite number of the month……80……quite a milestone for my favourite father-in-law.

Trump of the Month

I challenged myself this month to exclude The Trump from being considered for the award for dedication to lunatic behaviour. It’s no longer a challenge for him given that every day he raises the bar to a whole new level of craziness.

As he finished his first month in power, it is almost admirable that he can be so creative in finding new ways to shock and destroy common sense. Just look at his memorable performance for February……

- He called Ukraine's President a "dictator" and blamed Ukraine for invading Russia.

- Arranged Russian authorities to release a US national who was arrested at a Moscow airport for drug possession.

- Ended New York congestion charge and announced on social media that  "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD and Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!"

- Cut benefits for undocumented migrants and legal aid for migrant children.

- Snubbed G20 talks in South Africa

- Fired his top general for no reason.

However, my particular ‘favourites’ this month were……

Firstly, sign an executive order to reverse the Biden administration’s push away from single-use plastics in government facilities. “These things don’t work, I’ve had them many times, and on occasion, they break, they explode.” Explode? What on earth is he trying to drink?

He also reassured us that there would be no issue to the environment. “I don’t think that plastic is going to affect the shark very much as they’re eating, as they’re munching their way through the ocean.” Utter madness.  

Secondly, he expressed his desire to turn Gaza into Dubai…….but signed an executive order extending a halt to funding for the Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, on the same day. "Executive departments and agencies shall not use any funds for a contribution, grant, or other payment to UNRWA," the order reads.

When questioned who exactly he was suggesting would live in Dubai-Gaza, The Trump said “I envision world people living there”. As opposed to……non-world people? Aliens?

He really is the dumbest and craziest President in history.

There is literally nobody that has come close to such lunacy, so that is why I set myself a ban on The Trump to find the best of the rest.

A worthy candidate was Mike Amesbury, the suspended Labour MP, who was jailed for 10 weeks after he punched a constituent in the street in an argument over the temporary closure of a local bridge. Interestingly it happened on a night out at 2.15am in a taxi queue. What else would you expect an MP to be doing on a Saturday night? Oh, yes……the obligatory kebab first. Crazy stuff.

Another MP, Andrew Gwynne was sacked over racist and sexist messages including one saying he hoped a pensioner who did not vote Labour would die before the next election and another for an elderly constituent’s death over a bin collections disagreement. The MP said he “deeply regrets my badly misjudged comments”. There’s an understatement!

Then there was Elon Musk, who always seems just a whisker away from losing the plot. He sent an email to all US government employees with a stark subject line: “What did you do last week?” He requested five bullet points summarising a worker’s achievements in the past week and gave them two days to respond. Failure to respond would be taken as resignation. Exactly who was going to read millions of emails and decide who achieved competent status still remains unclear. Absolute madness.

All three are worthy candidates for services to stupidity., However, the Trump of the Month award for February 2025 could only go to……Rachel Jane Reeves.

Aside from the mess of her Budget and subsequent fall out, it has been an interesting month for Reevesy……

It started with a damning report into Reevesy’s new brainwave……the Office for Value for Money. The report suggested that the office was “poorly defined,” runs the risk of “unnecessary duplication” and there was ‘no way to measure effectiveness”.

And it gets worse…… Rachie appointed David Goldstone as chairman of the Office for Value for Money. He sat on the board of HS2 and lead Parliament’s over-budget restoration and renewal programme. If anybody knows how to waste public money in bucketfuls, clearly it is this man who fails to know how budgets work……or what value for money is. You really couldn’t script it. 

Then all eyes turned to Reevesy to defend her overinflated CV. “I spent a decade working as an economist at the Bank of England,” she said in 2021. However, she didn’t……her CV is a work of fiction. It was picked up by someone (with less of a life than me) examining her CV on LinkedIn.

Surely the bigger issue is not the lie but why on earth is the Chancellor even on LinkedIn? Are there other Chancellor jobs she might be interested in? Is Italy on the lookout, maybe Luxembourg? Experienced candidate……good (ish) with numbers……maybe not with farmers though.

And none of this would really be a problem if the economy was behaving like we had a red-hot economist at the helm The current reality though, suggests the economy has pretty much been left to someone who blindsided HR about their CV.

And just when you thought she couldn’t inflict any more madness……we have Reevesy’s Spring Statement to look forward to on 26^th March. The joy.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Ability without honour is useless.” Marcus Tullius Cicero