The Month That Was……February 2025

My New Year resolution to get fitter and run more has (remarkably) got to a second month. I know…..go me! I have always run with headphones blasting out anything to help me to zone out and not feel the pain. However, the one downside is (all too often) not hearing a large moving vehicle that is quite happy to mow me down. It creates a scene not too dissimilar to a middle aged man dressed in dayglow lycra being caught in the headlights. It’s not pretty and near death experiences are very overrated. Reluctantly, I’m now a headphoneless runner.

Whilst cars are now more often than not dodged, it does permit my mind a regular opportunity to freestyle whilst I cough, splutter, swear and limp around another 10K course. And it is a very random freestyle. Very. This month’s highlights include:

- Nothing unclean ever goes into the cutlery drawer, yet it still gets dirty. Is the cutlery drawer where the best utensil parties occur at night? It’s one of life’s great mysteries.

- I still remember the phone number for swapshop……01 811 8055. Yet in an accident, I wouldn’t be able to give my wife’s phone number for emergency use……or any number in fact…… other than the direct hotline to Noel Edmonds and Keith Chegwin.  

- Is there a more ungainly activity than carrying the hoover upstairs?

- There is no longer walk in life than when a staff member shows you to an item on the other side of a big shop. Perhaps some prepared ramble for the walk would help ease the awkwardness. “I did have a good look, but for some reason, I just couldn't seem to see it.” Followed by forced laugh. “I did wonder if they'd maybe moved it to anoth..., ah, there it is. Cheers." That should do it. 

- And while we’re here……there is no longer wait known to mankind than people who get to the till and wait for all the shopping to be scanned and still haven't got their wallet / purse out. Let alone the compulsory fishing around inside said wallet / purse for the correct card or, worse still, pennies lying deeply buried for decades. Come on……life’s too short for such a lack of efficiency.

- Why is pancake day in March this year? You really can’t make this up. Who is deciding this rubbish? I’ll blame Trump.

- I’ll never understand the “Yorkshire pudding only goes with beef!” people. Imagine restricting yourself like that. Yorkshire pudding goes with everything. Free your minds.

- Why is it compulsory to announce that “you managed to find us then?” when someone visits your house for the first time? Stop it. Stop it now.

- Smoking must have reduced drastically because I can’t remember the last time I was asked if I had a lighter. Which means it’s been years since I have been able to apologise to a stranger for not smoking. In fact, I can’t remember being asked "have you got the time please" in years. It’s also a rarity now.

- Placing your head on a just flipped pillow in the middle of the night is right up there with the birth of my daughter. Such an amazing feeling.

- There are only two types of cats. Ones that like their tummy being tickled and those who will slice you like a confidential document shredder if you so much as brush past them.

Perhaps the safer option is to wear headphones and dance with the cars than let my mind freestyle. Perhaps.

The Numbers

Every so often a report slaps you in the face and provides a context to all that is going on in the UK currently. New World Wealth, the global analytics firm, produced a report that I found simply staggering……the UK lost 10,800 millionaires over the last year as the wealthy sort more stable politics and tax regimes.

Why so important?

30% of the total UK income tax was paid by the wealthiest 1%. 50% of total UK income tax was paid by the top 5%.

Millionaires leaving the UK is not good. You know the tax system is messed up when the proceeds from gambling are 100% tax free……whilst your life savings are taxed at 40% when you die.

Rachel Reeves is part of the problem not the solution until she changes direction. In the meantime, the impact of her thoughtless Budget continues to bite harder……

Food inflation is now expected to rise between 4.5% and 5.5% this year.

Why?

The Chancellor announced in the Budget that, from April, the threshold on employee earnings at which businesses begin to pay national insurance will drop from £9,100 to £5,000, the rate will also increase from 13.8% to 15%  and the minimum wage for over-21s is rising by 6.7% to £12.21.

These changes are particularly painful for retailers, which employ many part-time workers on low wages and for companies that produce fresh food, where labour comprises up to 60% of production costs. The rising of employment costs to companies will simply be passed on to consumers. And that’s inflation……something Rachel Reeves struggles to understand. 

It is no coincidence that consumer confidence has reached a 12-month low and the employment market is in its longest downturn since 2000.

There was no surprise that the Bank of England cut interest rates in February from 4.75% to 4.50%, the third reduction in six months. It also now expects the economy to grow by just 0.75% this year, half its November forecast of 1.50%. Interestingly, 2 of the 9 monetary policy committee voted to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, which is a striking summary of the state of the UK economy.

How’s that ‘budget for growth' working out for you now Rachel Reeves? Absolutely clueless.

My least favourite number of the month……£700,000……the cost of Keir Starmer’s flights to the taxpayer in 3 months. This is more than the 3 previous PMs combined! To be fair though, one of those didn’t even make it to 3 months!

And my favourite number of the month……80……quite a milestone for my favourite father-in-law.

Trump of the Month

I challenged myself this month to exclude The Trump from being considered for the award for dedication to lunatic behaviour. It’s no longer a challenge for him given that every day he raises the bar to a whole new level of craziness.

As he finished his first month in power, it is almost admirable that he can be so creative in finding new ways to shock and destroy common sense. Just look at his memorable performance for February……

- He called Ukraine's President a "dictator" and blamed Ukraine for invading Russia.

- Arranged Russian authorities to release a US national who was arrested at a Moscow airport for drug possession.

- Ended New York congestion charge and announced on social media that  "CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD and Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED. LONG LIVE THE KING!"

- Cut benefits for undocumented migrants and legal aid for migrant children.

- Snubbed G20 talks in South Africa

- Fired his top general for no reason.

However, my particular ‘favourites’ this month were……

Firstly, sign an executive order to reverse the Biden administration’s push away from single-use plastics in government facilities. “These things don’t work, I’ve had them many times, and on occasion, they break, they explode.” Explode? What on earth is he trying to drink?

He also reassured us that there would be no issue to the environment. “I don’t think that plastic is going to affect the shark very much as they’re eating, as they’re munching their way through the ocean.” Utter madness.  

Secondly, he expressed his desire to turn Gaza into Dubai…….but signed an executive order extending a halt to funding for the Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, on the same day. "Executive departments and agencies shall not use any funds for a contribution, grant, or other payment to UNRWA," the order reads.

When questioned who exactly he was suggesting would live in Dubai-Gaza, The Trump said “I envision world people living there”. As opposed to……non-world people? Aliens?

He really is the dumbest and craziest President in history.

There is literally nobody that has come close to such lunacy, so that is why I set myself a ban on The Trump to find the best of the rest.

A worthy candidate was Mike Amesbury, the suspended Labour MP, who was jailed for 10 weeks after he punched a constituent in the street in an argument over the temporary closure of a local bridge. Interestingly it happened on a night out at 2.15am in a taxi queue. What else would you expect an MP to be doing on a Saturday night? Oh, yes……the obligatory kebab first. Crazy stuff.

Another MP, Andrew Gwynne was sacked over racist and sexist messages including one saying he hoped a pensioner who did not vote Labour would die before the next election and another for an elderly constituent’s death over a bin collections disagreement. The MP said he “deeply regrets my badly misjudged comments”. There’s an understatement!

Then there was Elon Musk, who always seems just a whisker away from losing the plot. He sent an email to all US government employees with a stark subject line: “What did you do last week?” He requested five bullet points summarising a worker’s achievements in the past week and gave them two days to respond. Failure to respond would be taken as resignation. Exactly who was going to read millions of emails and decide who achieved competent status still remains unclear. Absolute madness.

All three are worthy candidates for services to stupidity., However, the Trump of the Month award for February 2025 could only go to……Rachel Jane Reeves.

Aside from the mess of her Budget and subsequent fall out, it has been an interesting month for Reevesy……

It started with a damning report into Reevesy’s new brainwave……the Office for Value for Money. The report suggested that the office was “poorly defined,” runs the risk of “unnecessary duplication” and there was ‘no way to measure effectiveness”.

And it gets worse…… Rachie appointed David Goldstone as chairman of the Office for Value for Money. He sat on the board of HS2 and lead Parliament’s over-budget restoration and renewal programme. If anybody knows how to waste public money in bucketfuls, clearly it is this man who fails to know how budgets work……or what value for money is. You really couldn’t script it. 

Then all eyes turned to Reevesy to defend her overinflated CV. “I spent a decade working as an economist at the Bank of England,” she said in 2021. However, she didn’t……her CV is a work of fiction. It was picked up by someone (with less of a life than me) examining her CV on LinkedIn.

Surely the bigger issue is not the lie but why on earth is the Chancellor even on LinkedIn? Are there other Chancellor jobs she might be interested in? Is Italy on the lookout, maybe Luxembourg? Experienced candidate……good (ish) with numbers……maybe not with farmers though.

And none of this would really be a problem if the economy was behaving like we had a red-hot economist at the helm The current reality though, suggests the economy has pretty much been left to someone who blindsided HR about their CV.

And just when you thought she couldn’t inflict any more madness……we have Reevesy’s Spring Statement to look forward to on 26^th March. The joy.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Ability without honour is useless.” Marcus Tullius Cicero

The Month That Was……January 2025

Just when you thought January couldn’t get any longer, darker or more depressing, along came……

……the 47^th President of the United States of America.

The Trump’s first term was littered with total buffoonery and lunatic ideas but with little substance or actions to support his mouth (the US / Mexico border wall that was never built being a prime example). This time it feels different……very different. Yes, the same crazy and head-scratching ideas are aplenty, but he actually seems to be acting on them as well. In fact, he actually looks extremely organised to deliver his lunacy.

Everything you need to know about ‘New Trump’ was shown during his first week in office.

- The Trump claimed that he was “saved by God to make America great again” and promptly signed 26 executive orders.

- He declared a national emergency on the US border with Mexico.

- Announced 25% trade tariffs with Canada, China and Mexico despite them being the US’s biggest trade partners (they account for 40% of all US imports).

- He offered Canada to be part of the US, informed Greenland that he will probably grab that for the US as he quite liked it for their energy reserves and gave notice that he wants to control the Panama Canal.   

- The Trump gave a blanket pardon that effectively freed all the Capitol rioters from 2021 and erased the work of the largest criminal investigation in US history……an event that saw 5 people die!

- He signed withdrawals from the World Health Organisation and from the Paris Climate Agreement and eased restrictions on oil and gas exploration……or as The Trump put it……“drill baby drill”.

- The Trump announced that “we're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America”……and google maps duly obliged.

- He stated that he was confident that the Gaza ceasefire that ‘he’ created (a new one for me) will hold and then spoke about it as though it was a real estate opportunity…..“it has a phenomenal location, on the sea, the best weather.” Wow. Just the small matter of it looking like a war zone rather than a vacation hot spot might stop holiday makers though.

- He announced that “the US will now only recognise two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality". He then put all Government diversity staff on paid leave prior to the redundancy.

- The Trump called on Putin to stop the ridiculous war in Ukraine or Russia would face sanctions.

- He informed President Joe Biden that he would be prosecuted……with no information on exactly why……a technicality that he will make up later. He then repealed 78 of Joe B’s executive orders, including one which sought to reduce the price of prescription drugs for the poor and elderly.

That’s quite a marker to put down for your first week in office……even by The Trump’s chaotic standards. However you describe The Trump presidency…..it has certainly begun. 

The only saving grace I am clinging on to is that the 22^nd Amendment to the Constitution is clear that The Trump can’t be elected again having served two terms. Unless he rewrites the constitution……he couldn’t……could he?

The Numbers

The fallout from Rachel Jane Reeves first Budget in October is starting to look ugly. The premise of her Budget was to raise taxes by £40 billion and drive economic growth……the reality looks very different.

£25 billion that is to be raised from April through an increase in employer National Insurance contributions does not create economic growth. It creates a £25 billion cost that will be paid for by reducing staffing levels or increasing prices. Add to this the impending increase in the minimum wage and it is little surprise that 54% of businesses now plan to reduce labour. Official figures showed that employers are cutting jobs at the quickest rates since the financial crisis in 2009.

Business confidence slid to its lowest level in 13 months, driven by growing pessimism among retailers after the Budget. The Lloyds Bank business barometer has now dropped in 5 consecutive months since the Budget.

I have no problem in raising £40 billion, just don’t push this on the private sector and expect economic growth.

There is also the real prospect that interest rates won’t fall as quickly as expected, which is simply due to prices expected to increase because of the additional tax take. Some 61% of businesses intend to raise prices over the next year. The consequence is that we are saving more than ever as the UK bunkers down for prolonged inflation.

When 64% of the UK economy is based on consumer spending, saving more is not good for the economy. Low interest rates puts more money in our pockets and attracts spending. Economic growth can’t be created without cheap money and the prospect of inflation scuppers this.

There are always two very clear confidence markers that let us know what the rest of the world thinks of the UK (well, financially anyway).

Firstly, the exchange rate against the dollar. Sterling has weakened to a 15 month low against the dollar since the Budget (to $1.22), increasing the cost of imports as a consequence (another inflation contributor).

Then there is the cost at which the Government borrows money. The UK’s public debt interest bill already exceeds £100 billion annually. Such is the lack of confidence in Rachel Jane Reeves Budget, the cost for the Government to borrow money hit a 27-year high on 30 year loans and a 17-year high on 10 year loans. Or to put that another way……a further £7 billion of public money must now be found to pay for the increase in interest rates as we are deemed riskier to lend to……and this wasn’t factored into the Budget.

When Liz Truss threw an economic grenade into the economy in 2022 she did so without really knowing what she was doing or looking at the underlying figures. Rachel Jane Reeves studied the figures and still threw the grenade in……and her background is meant to be of economic excellence.

What an absolute mess……and yet Keir Rodney Starmer still has “complete faith” in her.

Little surprise that Rachel Jane Reeves headed off for some political flirting with China ……the 2^nd largest economy in the world and the UK's 4^th largest single trading partner. According to the Treasury, exports to China supported more than 455,000 UK jobs.

My own favourite number of the month……2……two continents in one city separated by the 1,560 metre Bosphorus Bridge. What a city Istanbul is! 

Trump of the Month

There was lunacy everywhere if you scratched beneath the surface of the media-addicted Trump coverage.

Peter Mandelson (remember Mandy?) was unveiled as Keir’s new US Ambassador. “The United States is one of our most important allies as we move into a new chapter in our friendship,” Keir proclaimed. Yet Keir chose someone who described The Trump as a “bully” in 2018 and "reckless and a danger to the world" in 2019. Read the room Keir.

It was no surprise that an adviser to The Trump called the incoming UK ambassador to the US "an absolute moron". I can’t disagree and the appointment lacks a lot of logic to embrace the special “friendship.” Crazy.

Keir Rodney Starmer wrote to the UK's main regulators asking them to come up with ideas for reform that could boost economic growth. We are 6 months into his term and he is already asking for ideas. Presumably he has no confidence in the Budget doing any good and has now run out of ideas. Labour have had over a decade to get creative and here we are with a Government void of inspiration. Moronic.

Suella Braverman said in a radio interview when discussing illegal immigration that she has "seen the wall on the land border between Italy and Turkey." Errrrr……I am pretty sure that they are 1,200 miles apart and don’t share a border. What next……geography lessons from the Flat Earth Society?

Perhaps Suella attending The Trump’s inauguration and seen wearing a 'Make America Great Again' cap explains her idiocy.

The most intriguing development was that of Tulip Siddiq. For all of the complexities and subtleties of the story (and there are plenty), the inescapable crux of it was something even the most polished public relations executive would struggle to add much gloss to. The investigation, by Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission, is looking into claims Tulip Siddiq's family embezzled up to £3.9 billion. Tulip’s aunt (Sheikh Hasina) was the country's Prime Minister at the time of the embezzlement.

Tulip is the Economic Secretary to the Treasury with responsibility to drive anti-corruption……but is now named in a corruption investigation! You really couldn’t script it. Anti-Corruption Minister……perhaps Tulip simply misread her job title and thought she was Minister For Aunty Corruption. I’ll get my coat.

She is now the ‘former’ Economic Secretary to the Treasury. Awkward.

Clearly these are all worthy candidates for services to stupidity……but the Trump of The Month could only go to Donald John Trump……again. He simply takes absurdity to a whole new level……just look at his first week in office.

His craziness is summed up perfectly by his relationship with Elon Musk. Four minutes into the new presidency, The Trump invited the richest man in the world to speak at his inaugural parade event and Elon Musk gave a 'nazi salute'……twice……and The Trump never flinched.

Just the next 207 weeks to endure until this folly is all over.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“History repeats itself and that's just how it goes.” J. Cole.

The Month That Was……November 2024

Despite turning 50 in September, I never really felt a mid-life crisis was necessary. No growing my hair long or getting a random tattoo. No need for a bright green sports car or taking up skateboarding. It simply wasn’t needed and the crisis has safely been averted.

But whilst wallowing in my overconfident pool of smugness, I simply didn’t factor in the real danger……I seemed to have developed neighbour Tourette’s. In the space of a few short weeks, I’ve turned into ‘that bloke’ on your street that bores the pants off you when you are getting in / out of your car.

It started innocently when the clocks changed and I proclaimed to my neighbour that “it really is getting dark earlier isn’t it”, with the passion of a new scientific revelation. (bore score: 6 out of 10)

A few days of wet weather later, I felt the need to inform my neighbour that it will be “good for the gardens”.  (bore score: 6.5 out of 10)

As the weather temperature dropped, I felt the need to confirm to my neighbour that it was “a bit nippy this morning”. I clearly felt my neighbour needed to hear that despite the evidence (scraping their car off without a coat on) suggesting they had a fair idea already.

But that wasn’t enough and I went for a double dose with a “too cold for snow” comment like a smug Michael Fish (ask your parents) living next door. (bore score: 8.5 out of 10)

And then when it did snow the next day, I made the bold prediction that it was “too wet to settle”.

I am literally boring myself writing and admitting this. But this was all just the amuse-bouche to the main course……when things got really bad.

With my neighbour washing his car, I felt the need to go full on bore. It took a bit of time because he wouldn’t make eye contact. So, like any good boring neighbour, I waited patiently until he had no choice and then I pounced like a lion on an antelope…… “there’s another car over here (pointing at my own car) when you’re finished”. I even chuckled at my own humour for full effect. (bore score: 10 out of 10)

I retreated to my sofa and shook my head in extreme disappointment. What had become of me? Had I really developed neighbour Tourette’s? I searched for solutions in my pit of despair……and then it dawned on me that I had suffered ‘Trump-apnoea’.

Trump-apnoea: (noun) extremely foolish, boring, eccentric or irrational behaviour experienced as a side effect of an absolute buffoon holding the most powerful position in the world.

There are no antihistamines in the world that will help me with this one. Oh well, just another four more years for me (and my neighbour) to suffer.

 

The Numbers

I’m still in shock. So for dramatic purposes……

34 Felony Counts

1 Conviction

2 Cases Pending

2 Impeachments

6 Bankruptcies

5 Children from 3 Wives

2 Assassination Attempts

30,573 False or Misleading Statements During First Presidency

47^th American President

4 More Years

The Trump won the Presidency by winning 312 to 226, getting 76,917,038 votes, controlling the Senate 53-47 and the House 220-214. This is despite Kamala Harris spending $1.6 billion on her election campaign. Say what you want about The Trump (and I have plenty!)……he got the job done.

Elsewhere……

The Bank of England cut UK interest rates from 5.0% to 4.75%, the second reduction this year. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, said: “If the economy evolves as we expect it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from here.”

However, he admitted he hadn’t factored in the likely increase in inflation from Rachel Reeves Budget and The Trump raising prices through tariffs on overseas goods. Finger on pulse as ever.

Pay growth excluding bonuses across the UK economy averaged 4.8%, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It was therefore no surprise that inflation increased to 2.3%. It is impossible to hit an inflation target of 2% if wages are increasing by over double that……the maths will never allow it.  

Compared with October 2020, prices of goods and services are now 24% higher, driven by increases in food and energy prices. £3.7 billion is collectively owed to energy suppliers from people unable to pay their gas and electricity bills.

Kemi Badenoch became the first black woman to lead a major political party in the UK, winning by 12,418 votes after a marathon contest to replace Rishi. She is the 6^th Tory leader in less than 9 years. Party membership has shrunk to 132,000…… the lowest level on record and down 40,000 members since 2022. A clear outcome of electing clowns as leaders then.

My own favourite number of the month……6……played 6 and won 6 (netball matches).

Trump of the Month

It seems that over exposure to The Trump this month has seen a glut of people also suffer with Trump-apnoea. Foolish, eccentric or irrational behaviour was everywhere.

The fallout from Rachel Reeves budget has been anything but positive. Whilst she wanted to ignite growth in the economy, the outcome is likely to have the opposite effect……leading to job losses, pay freezes and price increases (aka inflation). You know it’s bad when Liz Truss (remember her?) pulls it apart and the masses agree. It reminds me of the Winston Churchill quote, “for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle”.

Keir Rodney Starmer was asked if his decision to cut the winter fuel allowance will be the policy he comes to regret. The PM responded with……“There are lots of decisions we had to make in the Budget which to be perfectly honest I’d have preferred not to have had to make.” Clearly attacking the most vulnerable was a decision that HAD to be made because there were no other options available for one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Utter madness.

Kemi Badenoch became the new leader of the Conservatives (remember them?) with such fan fare that nobody other than her own family even realised it. Her first speech as the new leader started with……“I am not here to win a popularity contest”. Errrrr……I am not sure if you know how this works……but that is exactly what you are here to do……winning a popularity contest is how you get to become PM. Utter fool.

And then we move on to Kamala Harris. Of the 300 million population, you would have thought that the US could have mustered up someone to put up a reasonable alternative to The Trump. Despite a record-breaking election kitty, it appears that her only message of “vote for me because I’m not Trump” may have lacked the political substance voters craved. She was constantly asked what her policies were and her response was always, “well, what are his”. She gave lots of reasons not to vote for the other candidate but gave no reasons to vote for her.

If you are going to go head-to-head with a man that is willing to lie through his teeth and who will say anything to get elected, then you better have something better to say yourself. Instead, all we got was vanilla conversations with Oprah and celebrity endorsements from those flogging an album or movie. It was almost impressive how badly she failed……especially given who beat her. Misplaced overconfidence was nothing short of idiocy.    

All justifiable candidates and all offering levels of lunacy worthy of the award in any other month. But the award for Trump of the Month for November 2024 could only go to……Donald John Trump.

In the past 8 years America has voted for a man who can barely string a sentence together followed by a man who can barely string a sentence together and back to the other man who can barely string a sentence together. Put that way, the US electorate are being pretty consistent.

This is a man who spent the last week of campaigning enticing voters with a “I’m not as bad as Hitler” message, dancing awkwardly to YMCA and wheeling out a 71 year old Hulk Hogan to rip off his t-shirt. And voters loved it……in their millions.

Then in the first week after the election…..

- He assembled a team of loyal friends to ensure they won’t challenge his authority this time around. The Defence Secretary is a TV presenter and the Health Secretary is a mate who is an anti-vaccination conspiracist. He has set up a new Department of Government Efficiency to be run by Elon Musk. The acronym DOGE just so happens to be Musk’s favourite cryptocurrency which just so happened to spike in price on the formation of the Department. Who’d have thought it!

- His legal team ramped up their efforts for The Trump’s convictions to be thrown out because of Presidential immunity.

- He then posed for a photo with all his family but replaced his wife with Elon Musk.

The Trump plans to comprehensively reshuffle the federal bureaucracy with civil servants who will pose little to no resistance to his political plans which includes the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, the further erosion of reproductive rights, the imposition of massive tariffs on foreign goods, the persecution of political foes and a potential US withdrawal from NATO. That is quite a list……even for him.

You know it is bad when President Putin praised The Trump as an “experienced and intelligent” politician. Well, he is certainly experienced.

Personally, I think Mexico should build a wall. And so should Canada. And we should join them up along the east and west coasts. It is the only way to stop the madness from spreading further.

The Trump as President again is crazy on every level……four more long bumpy years. Hold on to your hat.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

Word of the Month: Recrudescence (17th century): the return of something terrible after a time of reprieve.

The Month That Was……October 2024

Like a weary pilgrim who has finally made it to Santiago de Compostela or a marathon runner who has negotiated “the wall” and now has the finishing line in sight, I am glad the pre-budget journey is now complete. I do like a bit of pre-budget speculation for a few days……but this has been a few months of tiresome rubbish!

I look forward to the day when the Labour Government begins to calm down. Their obsession with how many billions they need has become unnerving. The £22 billion black hole became, almost overnight, the £40 billion funding gap. It all felt as though Labour was playing Billionaire bingo……with itself.

So, where to find (insert the latest made-up number) billions?

There has been a broad consensus that Rachel Reeves’s original sin was to rule out rises in the four big taxes that together generate three-quarters of Government revenues — Income Tax (£303 billion), VAT (£176 billion), National Insurance (£168 billion) and Corporation Tax (£101 billion).

By ruling out raising the ‘big four’, RR created a speculation whirlwind on where the (insert the latest made-up number) billions was to come from. Rumour upon rumour dominated far too many for far too long.

But as we limped towards Labour’s first budget, I had a touch of sympathy for our well-intentioned Prime Minister and his clear message of not overtaxing “working people”……mainly because nobody from the Labour party could define who “working people” were.

Various cabinet ministers had a jolly good go……defining them as people who rely on a pay packet and “go out” to work. Errrrrr……what about the work from home brigade? That then morphed into Keir saying he doesn’t include people with income from shares or property or who are able to solve a sudden problem “by writing a cheque”. A cheque? What next……those that send a telegram……those who have a ration book?

Labour needs to get away from silly, divisive language about prioritising workers and realise that in a 21st-century economy we just need simple and consistent messages from those that aren’t in it just for the Taylor Swift tickets.

The Numbers

Labour used a record 117 day hiatus between winning power and announcing a budget to reveal a 170 page report delivered in an 80 minute address by the first female Chancellor.

The main headlines will show that taxes will rise by £40 billion, with employer national insurance, inheritance tax and capital gains tax the main sources to suffer. The main winner of the tax was the NHS with £22.6 billion being pledged over the next two years.

RR simply took £25 billion from the private sector through an employer national insurance increase (the biggest tax rise announced) and gave it to the public sector via the NHS. Simply chucking more money at inefficiently delivered medical care without radical reform seems baffling.

It also seems baffling that the rise in capital gains tax is on shares (the second biggest tax rise) but not on property. This will see Number 11 whack productive, risk-taking investments rather than increasing the tax burden on passive property ownership.

The third biggest tax rise will come from inheritance tax, with the £325,000 threshold continuing to be frozen until at least 2030 (it has not increased since 2010) and inherited pensions brought under the inheritance tax regime for the first time from 2027. This change will see 1 in 10 now impacted by inheritance tax.

Whilst the promise to unfreeze income tax thresholds is welcome, it won’t be implemented for another four years. Or to put that another way……she will increase it just as we are going to the polling stations!

Despite the fact that the 170 page report is an incredibly interesting read (yes, really), the following summarises the key points:

- The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast that the UK economy will expand by 1.1% this year, 2.0% next year and 1.8% in 2026.

- The OBR has also forecast that inflation will average 2.5% this year and 2.6% next year before falling to 2.3% by 2026.

- The national living wage will increase by 6.7% from £11.44 an hour to £12.21 for those aged 21 and over. The increase is worth up to £1,400 a year for full-time workers. The UK will also gradually move towards a single adult rate, increasing the minimum wage for those under the age of 21 by 16.3% to £10 an hour.

- The headline rate of national insurance for employers has been increased from 13.8% at present to 15.0% per cent from April.

- The earnings threshold at which employers start making national insurance contributions, which currently starts at £9,100, has been lowered to £5,000.

Capital gains tax rises to 24% on the sales of shares and other assets, effective immediately. The rate of 10% which applies when people are selling their own businesses will rise to 14% from April 2025 and 18% from April 2026.

The non-dom tax regime that allows foreign nationals living in the UK to avoid paying tax on their overseas income has been “abolished”, removing a 50% discount for non-doms bringing foreign income into the UK in the first year.

The freeze on the inheritance tax threshold of £325,000 has been extended until 2030. Inherited pensions will be brought under the inheritance tax regime for the first time from 2027. Inheritance tax has been introduced for the first time on agricultural land and business worth more than £1 million.

The stamp duty surcharge on second homes has been raised from 3% to 5%.

The freeze on income tax thresholds will not be extended and will be uprated in line with inflation for the 2028-29 tax year.

My own favourite number of the month……4……the little lady bagged Wainwright Number 4 (Gowbarrow Fell).

Trump of the Month

I was all over the new ‘value for money’ chief being a certain for the award this month. The chairman of a new quango designed to ensure taxpayer money is being spent wisely has overseen billions of pounds of overspend and long delays on major projects such as HS2 and the renovation of Parliament. David Goldstone, who will head the Office for Value for Money, will be paid the equivalent of £247,000 per year for an average commitment of one day a week. That’s the stuff that The Trump would be proud of.

However, the Trump of the Month Award for October 2024 could only be…… Rachel Jane Reeves.

RR introduction of a whopping £25 billion tax hike on employer national insurance means all sensible companies will now be calculating the size of their bill, along with the adjustments and cuts required to pay it.

For all that the Chancellor says her first budget spares “working people” (whatever that means), businesses are made up of people. Employees and prospective employees will pay the bill in several ways……lower wages, limiting pay rises, restricting hiring or redundancies. I’m pretty sure nobody voted for that.

This is indisputably a tax on work, whatever sophistry RR may deploy about sparing the “payslips of working people”. It opens up an ever wider black hole, so to speak, between what it costs to hire and what the employee takes home, extracting yet more from the working-age population.

Having waxed lyrical about protecting working people, RR then went on national media 24 hours after her budget speech to concede: "It is likely to mean wages might be slightly less than they otherwise would have been.”

So exactly how does that spare the “payslips of working people?” 

On immediate reflection of the budget, I found myself worried and wondering whether Labour and RR really understand how the economy works in practice. I fear they are about to find out.

The Trump of the Month Award for October 2024 could only go to Rachel Jane Reeves.

Crazy on every level.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything.”

Mark Twain

The Month That Was……September 2024

Maybe it’s just me, but Labour’s daily rumours, spin, counter-rumours and threats on all aspects of the Budget is getting annoying. Actually, it’s really annoying. The media has whipped the 30^th October Budget up and it is now going to be a huge event. There will be Budget winners and losers……but it’s always been that way.

Multiply that annoyance by 50 and we are close to what really troubles me……the US Presidential election. Our media is already going full on 24 hours a day on The Trump v Harris showdown……and with good reason. This is the biggest economy in the world with the most important currency in the world and we are just about to hand the baton to a new leader for the next 4 years. And these two candidates are considered to be the best that 333 million American’s can find. 

I am struggling to look on the light-hearted side of who gets in as they are just so important to UK prosperity on many levels. Why do you think Keir had dinner with The Trump this month……nobody does that through choice!

Let’s not be polite here……the issue is The Trump. It’s always The Trump. He’s the most extreme case study of just how strange someone can be if a combination of wealth and dark charisma means your behaviour goes unchecked for 78 years. The Trump has normalised chaos, false information and extreme behaviour.

When there was a second assassination attempt on The Trump this month, the global response was largely a shoulder shrug. The lack of surprise in the media was certainly noticeable. Within a couple of days The Sun’s homepage was leading with the big exclusive of M&S axing Percy Pig Phizzy Chews.

Now, I don’t want to show my age on this one but I remember when an assassination attempt on a world leader was a big deal……certainly bigger than M&S confectionary. 

And just when you think things couldn’t get any more crazy, The Trump accused Haitian immigrants of eating cats and dogs in Ohio……causing multiple bomb threats and event cancellations.

Cue, more shoulder shrugging. We are punch drunk to his idiocy.

The clock is ticking and we are running out of time to stop the car crash. We have run out of time to look on the bright side. We’re just holding on, by our fingertips, until November……and my goodness it’s painful.

 

The Numbers

The big news was linked to the US, with significant data getting the cardigan wearers very excited (mine’s blue in case you were wondering).

Figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (there are only cardigan wearers that would even know that this existed) revealed that inflation had dropped to 2.5%, slightly below Wall Street forecasts. US inflation is now at a 3 year low.

This then led to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 0.5% and signalled further reductions were likely. It was the first reduction of the US interest rate in 4 years. The stabilising of inflation and cheaper cost of debt is a clear attempt to prevent a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

UK inflation remained unchanged at 2.2% this month and it was no surprise that the Bank of England left the interest rate at 5%. 

The September inflation figure is always an important number as it determines the increase in the State Pension. Wages have grown by 4%, higher than 2.2% inflation or 2.5% under the triple lock conditions. The State Pension is set to rise by £460 a year from April,.

However, the big news for us ‘cardiganers’ came from the Commission on the Future of Employment Support (it’s one of my top 3 commissions……it really is a cracker). Their report highlighted that the UK’s workforce is shrinking at the fastest rate in 40 years, costing the economy £25 billion a year and adding £16 billion of fiscal pressure to the public finances.

A 2 year analysis into the state of the workforce has found that 800,000 people have fallen out of the labour market since the Covid-19 pandemic, the largest employment drop since the 1980s, marking out the UK as having one of the worst economic inactivity problems in the developed world.

The report came the same week as the Institute for Fiscal Studies report that 3.9 million are on sickness benefits as Covid continues to take toll. 1 in 5 working age adults is claiming sickness benefits in some areas of the country and every local authority in England and Wales (bar one) has had a rise in claims since the pandemic. The number on sickness benefits has risen to 3.9 million people, up 38% in 4 years.

The UK is almost unique among wealthy countries in experiencing such a post-pandemic surge in sickness, with experts saying Covid may have hit the country’s ailing population and NHS harder.

You see Keir, it is quite an economic and fiscal puzzle you now have to unravel.

My own favourite number of the month……50……a certain special cardigan wearer may have reached a special birthday. 

Trump of the Month

Whilst The Trump has made a damn good fight for the award this month (he normally does), we don’t need to look too far in the UK to find our own helping of lunacy. The Trump of the Month Award for September 2024 is…… Keir Rodney Starmer.

Of all the things that were going to ‘cop it’ when Labour drew up its list to fund the £22 billion black hole (they conveniently didn’t know about until after they were elected), the Winter Fuel Payment would not have been on many peoples hit lists.

Hitting some of the most vulnerable and needy first just defies logic. Why start the hit list at low-income pensioners?

For the record, around 11.6 million people in just over 8 million households received the Winter Fuel Payment last winter at a total cost of £2 billion.

Labour MP after Labour MP trotted out in front of the media to claim how appalled they were at their party and leader. So appalled in fact that 53 Labour MPs opposed the cut in Winter Fuel Payment so strongly that they, er……abstained when it came to a vote and only one voted against.

WOW……just a single Labour MP voted against. Just one. There are no words. Respect to Jon Trickett. Morals before politics……how refreshing……how rare.

The vote passed by 120 in the end. It’s not hard when you’ve got a majority as big as they have. That’s Labour’s power for you……and we gave it to them.

The vote result came on the back of reports of Keir receiving all manner of freebies, from football and concert tickets, to accommodation and clothes from a variety of donors. Very interesting especially as Keir waxed lyrical about Tory culture of privilege and cronyism since being the Labour Party Leader.

Further investigation has shown that no MP has received more free gifts than Keir over the past 5 years. Given all we have lived through with BoJo’s Government, that’s an amazing statistic.

The Trump of the Month Award for September 2024 could only go to Free Gear Keir.

Shameful stuff.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Mark Twain