Well, that’s January done and dusted. A month that offers subzero conditions, slipping us into pessimism and dread. Let’s be honest, as a nation, we are not particularly good at coping with cold snaps. My daughter’s godparents live in Canada and they don’t even start a conversation about the weather until there is a 6-foot dump of snow overnight and its -40C (without the windchill). Not even a shrug of the shoulders.
Whereas the prospect of a light dusting of snow
gives our entire transport infrastructure a nervous breakdown and affords us
the exciting opportunity of talking about the weather and finding creative ways
of telling friends, acquaintances and strangers that it is cold today and may
be cold tomorrow.
But it’s not all bad……in fact there’s something
about a sustained period of wintry weather that can bring small pleasures that
only winter offers. When the mercury drops we can do things that we wouldn’t
normally do……cheap but satisfying thrills. For example …
- Being able to look out of the window and
loudly proclaim: “Oooh, this is real [insert whatever heroically calorific hot
pudding you feel like eating] weather!”
- Confusing children by telling them that it’s “too
cold to snow’ (obviously refusing to elaborate on how this is even possible) or
informing them that it “smells like snow” like some mystic Wim Hof (rather than
a sad middle aged man who watched the weather forecast).
- The continual consumption of hot toddies.
Beginnings of a cold? Hot toddy. Stubbed toe? Hot toddy. Footie team getting
beat (again)? Hot toddy.
- Hot baths daily…..maybe even multiple times a
day. Like a modern day Cadbury’s Flake advert woman. If you phone a client during
working hours and there’s a particularly echoey, aquatic tone to the line, you
absolutely know not to suggest switching to a videocall.
- Saying, “Oh, I guess it’s me that needs to defrost
the car again,” before a family outing……then simply sitting in the front with
the heaters on, listening to the radio for ten minutes while everybody else
faffs around trying to find hats and gloves. It’s the most Zen experience
available in January.
- Feeling completely liberated by not making
any effort whatsoever with your hair due to the joys afforded by woolly hat
coverups.
- Expertly advising anybody driving the car
you’re travelling in to “steer into the skid, not against it” should you
encounter ice……as if you even know what that means.
- Spotting dog dirt a mile off on snowy days,
allowing you to walk down the pavement with all the grace and solemn poise of a
Princess on her wedding day.
As you can see, January always offers far more
than it gets credit for. It’s an underrated gem.
The Numbers
It is clear that the big challenge for 2026 for
this Government will be how it nurtures the economy. It will be a defining
year.
Economics and the economy affect us all……“it’s the
ordinary business of life” as the great British economist Alfred Marshall noted.
It is not just for investors, or businesses or Governments.
It defines whether we feel better off or not, whether we can have fulfilling
jobs and whether we can enjoy good public services without paying too much in
tax to fund them.
The state of play on key economic data always
informs our position perfectly.
Growth: This is measured by
the rise over a given period in gross domestic product (GDP) and is the
broadest measure of economic activity, adjusted for inflation. The average GDP
growth between 1945 and 2008 (when the financial crisis struck) was a healthy 2.8%
per cent. The average annual growth since then has been 1%. The UK has
suffered weak growth for years and this has to be the focus for the Government
that has seen GDP stall after 6 consecutive increases.
Productivity: This key economic
concept reflects how much we produce or “add value”, for what we put in. It is
measured by GDP per worker. Many of the UK’s current problems can be put down
to the fact that, after growing by 2% a year for many decades,
productivity has stalled for more than 15 years. If it had continued on
its previous path, every one of us would be thousands of pounds a year better
off. Increasing productivity is another key challenge for this Government.
Inflation: The rate of change of
prices now has the greatest significance for the public. 2% is the
inflation target that the Bank of England is required to meet, which it
controls by varying interest rates.
Yet inflation is running hot at the moment as
it increased to 3.4% this month (food inflation climbed to 4.5%).
When Labour took office in July 2024 inflation was 2.2%.
Unemployment: This is still a hot political and economic issue. People who are
unemployed are available for work, while the economically inactive are not (the
long-term sick, early retirees, carers, those in full-time education). The
unemployment rate is 5.1% but the inactivity rate is 21%. That’s 1.8
million versus 9.1 million, which has risen sharply since the
pandemic. The inactivity rate causes all sorts of economic issues and is a
conundrum that needs rebalancing.
Budget
Deficit / Government Debt: This deficit is the
difference between Government spending and revenues……our national outgoings and
income. Rachel Reeves is committed to eliminating the current budget deficit by
2030. UK Government
Debt is the accumulated value of the budget deficits over the years. It is currently
£2.9 trillion (£2,900 billion) and it is now of concern because
it has risen more sharply than in other advanced economies over the past 20
years. Oh, and because of the interest that’s paid on it……currently more than £100
billion.
The cocktail of
economic issues isn’t new to Government and it can’t be ignored. The decisions
and actions it takes in 2026 will define our economy for the remainder of the
decade.
When you consider
all of this, it was of little surprise that our PM visited China this month for
political and economic flirting. Follow the money.
It was the first Prime
Minister visit to China since Theresa May in 2018, with the trip designed to
highlight the strength of UK firms in finance, pharmaceuticals, healthcare,
clean energy and car making.
A good start but
more economic ties are needed with the second largest economy in the world.
However, this requires a delicate diplomatic balancing act. The Trump recently
warned that Canada could face 100% tariffs over deals struck with China
during Mark Carney's visit and he has warned the UK about deepening its
commercial ties with Beijing. Classic Trump.
And my favourite number of the month was……-3……the
temperature when my favourite netballer took to the track for a fitness session!
.jpeg)
Let’s cut to the chase here as I am not going
to insult anyone that there was a worthy alternative. The Trump of the Month
for January 2026 could only be……Donald John Trump.
The lunacy on offer this month was outstanding
and at an impressive level.
He then moved on to suing JPMorgan for $5
billion for allegedly stopping doing business with him for political reasons. I
can think of plenty of moral reasons why I wouldn’t want to have too much of an
association with The Trump……politics probably wouldn’t even appear on the list.
And just to make sure JPMorgan got the message,
The Trump has demanded a one year cap of 10% on credit card interest rates
across all banks.
His attention then moved to Greenland as he
decided he wanted it and refused to rule out taking the country by force. The
Trump then pinned the blame for his aggressive territorial claims on Norway,
accusing it in a text message to its PM of failing to ensure he won the Nobel Peace
Prize.
I am pretty sure that abducting the head of
Venezuela and threatening taking a country by force is outside of the criteria
for the Nobel Peace Prize……but maybe it’s just me.
And then in a further show of craziness, The
Trump set up the ‘Board of Peace’ which has a specific 2 year mandate from the
UN security council to manage postwar Gaza. However, its official charter makes
no reference to the territory!
In essence, it’s 19 countries who have put
their names to the founding charter, most of which are close ties to Trump and want
to demonstrate their loyalty to him. It’s a political mates club.
What a time to be alive!
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“There is nothing either good or bad,
but thinking makes it so.”
William Shakespeare
