The Month That Was……July 2025

July saw the one year anniversary of Labour getting into power. As anniversaries go, this was right up there with the Brexit Referendum anniversary in June.

On his first anniversary, you would expect the Prime Minister to be all over the media blowing his own trumpet (or any musical instrument involving wind for that matter) and doing a political lap of honour. Instead, he went on the Sunday morning political TV programmes to explain that he didn’t make Rachel Reeves cry during PM Q’s the previous week.

If ever there was a metaphor……the Chancellor of the Exchequer in floods of tears behind a Prime Minister who carries on regardless……oblivious to the train crash happening behind him. How apt.

When asked whether Rachel Reeves was for the chop……Keir paused……and then didn’t answer the question. So, the financial markets wobbled like only a Rachel Reeves chin can……the cost of Government borrowing shot up……and then finally Keir confirmed……oh, go on then, she can stay a little longer……pacifying all things financial for 10 minutes.

It was the most surreal political scene since……Liz Truss’s 10 minutes of fame……no hang on, BoJo’s lockdown lies……wait, Matt Hancock's kiss / grope during Covid……(in fact, insert anything to do with the Tories since the Covid outbreak).

The most remarkable thing about this Government is that they have had 14 years to prepare for this moment. 14 years of saying it’s their fault, followed by 1 year of saying it’s their fault from the other side of the house.

Inspirational leadership it is not. A political mess, it is. U-turns, incompetence, a split party, no direction, et al. Labour were voted in to change things……but there has been no difference whatsoever. Tory chaos rebadged with a red tie. Even Labour’s backbenchers have had enough of the political ineptitude.

The key thing about politics is that you have to get elected and then you have to deliver what you said you were going to do. Wake up Starmer……20% of your time in Government has gone already. A majority of 165, yet he looks absolutely clueless. We need better. We deserve better.

And the biggest winner in all of this…… Nigel Farage. 

Enough now.

The Numbers

The narrative dominating the numbers was the Office for Budget Responsibility ringing the alarm on the ballooning trajectory of public debt and the widening budget deficit. It was another reminder for the Government of its perilous fiscal situation.

And the figures are not good reading:

- UK debt interest spending for the month jumped to £16.4 billion, the second highest for a month since the records began in 1993 (behind only June 2020, which was heavily affected by the pandemic).

- Borrowing, essentially the difference between public spending and tax income, was £20.7 billion for the month, up £6.6 billion from the same month last year.

- £1 of every £10 of Government spending is spent servicing Government debt.

Big figures, which are compounded by the cost to borrow.

The rate on the 30-year UK Government Bond (or gilt) now stands at 5.43%, up from 4.67% compared to a year ago. By comparison, the US equivalent has risen to 4.93% from 4.48% over the same period.

It is clear that Reeves needs tax income……and quick.

The biggest rumour seems to centre around a wealth tax, which Reeves believes will raise around £10 billion. However, 80% of the potential revenue will come from just 5,000 people……and 15% from just 10 people. So, it would just take a handful of people changing residence and it could remove billions.

Another option is to remove the triple lock on the State Pension (the promise to raise the state pension every year in line with the highest of consumer price inflation, average earnings, or 2.5%). Raging inflation and wage growth since 2021 has meant that the policy will end up costing £16 billion by the end of the decade compared with original forecasts of £5 billion. With inflation jumping to 3.6% this month (the highest since January 2024), this is a strong consideration……but clearly not a vote winner!

Keir was pushed and prodded on whether he was ruling out extending the stealth tax. He refused to say whether the Government would lift the freeze on income tax thresholds in 2028, as it has previously stated. Freezing income tax bands for longer would drag an estimated 1 million people into higher rates by 2030.

No doubt further options will be rumoured but this will be a theme running up to the Autumn Budget as the Chancellor will look to raise as much as £30 billion.

Debt was a key theme also in the US this month as The Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ passed through the Senate by one vote. Estimates suggest the fiscal impact of the bill will add $2.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade, with a total debt increase of $3.0 trillion.

Don’t panic though……The Trump is still flexing his orange muscles as he threatens 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU bartering him down to 15%.

My favourite number this month was……6……the little lady finishing Year 6 at Primary School with the School Girl of the Year award tucked under her arm as she skips towards Senior School.

Trump of the Month

I am not messing about this month. The Trump of the Month award for services to lunacy has to be…… Keir Rodney Starmer.

See above.

End of.

No further questions your honour.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“Incompetence is often highly regarded in governmental circles.”

William Wallace

The Month That Was……June 2025

June has been a funny old month of jumping from one video conference to another for regulatory briefings, pension legislation changes and economic guidance. I know……living the dream. It really feels like death by webinar.

One of the most disturbing things I have learnt is that we are now morphing into a completely different language. And quite frankly, I am baffled by the moronic meaningless maunder.

“Just to bring you up to speed and take a deep dive before we circle back and drill down on the granular detail” was the opening line from Hugo on my webinar last week. When Hugo caught someone smirking on video (it wasn’t me, I was wiping the blood from my eye as I had stuck a fork in it) he responded with “I am pivoting to get you up to speed so you can hit the ground running and start on a level playing field.” Wow……and this was from a compliance consultant.

The day before, Casandra provided detailed analysis of new pension legislation by delivering “no one is trying to reinvent the wheel here, I’m just reaching out to run a few ideas up the flagpole and see who grabs the low-hanging fruit.” And just for good measure, apparently it is “going to require a paradigm shift in your attitude and a step change in gear.”

When I reached my third webinar of the week, I quickly looked to see who was presenting…….Dave. Thank goodness for that. A proper steady name and one that won’t be new-world brown box thinking. That was until the second minute when he let me down with “no one is trying to reinvent the playing field because I just wanted to loop you into a holistic approach from the get-go.” That handy fork was now in my other eye.

Perhaps the most disturbing thing of all is that the linguistic disease is highly contagious. I have since found myself “putting ducks in a row”, “getting plenty of boots on the ground”, “optimising the visuals” and “synergise to energise”.

Be very careful out there guys as it’s like the wild west as the sound bar is totally transmittable.

I’m off for some blue sky thinking to ensure I am an early adopter to move the needle on all things mission critical to ensure core competency.

Or alternatively, shoot me now.

 

The Numbers

This month’s numbers were dominated by Rachel Reeves Spending Review and announcement to Parliament.

The hours, days, weeks and even months after a Spending Review can feel like peeling away the layers of an onion.

First, there is the speech from the chancellor in the Commons: the political rhetoric and the numbers often designed to sound big but which are often incomprehensible. Then there are accompanying documents……in this instance in particular a blue-covered, 128 page tome crammed with words, numbers and graphs.

And as the detail is pored over, elements that were not put up in lights by the chancellor become clearer.

The main political message of the spending review was to announce plans to “renew Britain”, betting that £20 billion a year in extra funding for public infrastructure such as railways, roads and power would spur the economy and improve living standards by the time voters go to the polls. Reeves promised an extra £29 billion a year for the NHS and cut spending elsewhere to channel money to “our most treasured public service”.

Reeves’s ferociously tight numbers leave no room for downturns, pay strikes, trade wars or shooting wars. Her plans also depend on £14 billion in hazily detailed “efficiency savings”. Significant tax rises look far more likely come the next Budget in Autumn.

Public spending is running at 44% of GDP, a historic high. Taxes, too, are historically high and universally expected to go higher.

Her report highlighted that, not only have we been spending like crazy (not least because of the pandemic) but we’ve been spending money we don’t have. The resulting annual bill of more than £100 billion just to cover the interest on our debts is quite the burden.

These numbers can be hard to put into context so consider this way of looking at it……we are now spending £23,757 for every adult in this country, which is roughly 65% of the average full-time salary (£37,500). That includes £3,807 on health, £5,817 on welfare and pensions and a shocking £1,955 for that debt bill.

Now, just for a bit of fun……restrict the calculation to those of working age and spending is above £30,000 a head. Factor in economic inactivity and the state is spending nearly as much as workers aged 18 to 65 are earning.

This is very obviously not sustainable, so is Rachel Reeves the right person to find the solution?

Elsewhere……

Love or loath, Amazon is ploughing in another £40 billion to the UK over the next 3 years for yet more expansion plans. Amazon is now one of the UK’s top 10 private employers with 75,000 members of staff.

And spare a thought for Elon Musk……his net worth dropped by $34 billion in a day as his personal feud with The Trump hit Tesla’s share price. The fortune of the world’s richest man fell to $335 billion, with his net worth declining by $98 billion since January. It is clearly an expensive hobby to be associated with the orange one.

My favourite number this month was……800……the little lady put on a fine display in the 800 metres at sports day.

 

Trump of the Month

There was some classic lunacy at front and centre stage this month and it wasn’t hard to find.

Elon Musk and The Trump ended their bromance over social media in a tit-for-tat slanging match in response to Musk disagreeing with The Trump’s proposed economic bill. Musk declared "I'm the reason Trump won!" and that The Trump was on "Epstein’s client list!" What Musk failed to mention is that he spent $275 million to elect a man he apparently knew to be ‘associated’ with Epstein. Crazy.

The Trump rose the lunacy stakes further by placing a travel ban on 12 countries after the targeted Boulder terror attack, yet didn’t ban the country where the attacker was from (Egypt).

There are clues as to why that is the case……the US and Egypt have a strong defence alliance……a partnership that the US calls a "pillar for regional stability". Egypt is one of the biggest beneficiaries of US economic and military aid in the Middle East, receiving a total of $1.4 billion from US agencies.

Then there was The Trump bombing Iran. In typical fashion……he created a problem……backed down……said he solved the problem……patted himself on the back.

And don’t get me started on Rachel Reeves desperate political u-turn on the winter fuel payment. It’s amazing how things change. Just a few months ago Rachel Reeves told us the financial situation was so grim she had no choice but to take the winter fuel payment from all but the poorest pensioners. And now, thanks to Labour, it’s all going so well she can afford to give it back. Utter madness. She must be on borrowed time.

All worthy, but this month’s Trump of the Month for absolute dedication to lunacy is……Daniel Hannan. I have waited 9 long years for this.

This month marked the ninth anniversary of the EU referendum of June 2016. This is a date that will be seared in many of your brains and will, for all the wrong reasons, be a permanent fixture in history books.

What you might not be aware of is that June 2025, is also a symbolic month……this is the date that featured in an article written by Conservative Party member, Vote Leave co-founder and former MEP……Daniel Hannan.

In his piece written two days before the referendum, Hannan invited us to cast our minds forward to June 2025 and imagine a utopian world where Britain is no longer part of the European Union. He writes of Independence Day celebrations with fireworks, improved relations with the EU and a country where the economy, democracy and liberty have all been reinvigorated thanks to nine years outside the EU.

Meanwhile, in Hannan’s imaginary world, the EU “continues to turn inwards, clinging to its dream of political amalgamation as the euro and migration crises worsen. Its population is ageing, its share of world GDP shrinking and its peoples protesting.”

And the article goes on like this for several paragraphs of sunlit Brexit uplands.

Of course, none of this has come to pass. Instead, Brexit has left the UK isolated, had a disastrous impact on the economy and is widely acknowledged by even the staunchest Brexiteers as being a failure of epic proportions.

And what of Hannan now? What was his punishment for misleading voters? A peerage to the House of Lords by none other than……Boris Johnson. If anybody knows anything about lunacy and being rewarded for failure, it’s Bo Jo.

Good luck explaining that to any rational person. UK political craziness as its finest.  

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“One person's craziness is another person's reality.”

Tim Burton