The Month That Was……January 2025

Just when you thought January couldn’t get any longer, darker or more depressing, along came……

……the 47^th President of the United States of America.

The Trump’s first term was littered with total buffoonery and lunatic ideas but with little substance or actions to support his mouth (the US / Mexico border wall that was never built being a prime example). This time it feels different……very different. Yes, the same crazy and head-scratching ideas are aplenty, but he actually seems to be acting on them as well. In fact, he actually looks extremely organised to deliver his lunacy.

Everything you need to know about ‘New Trump’ was shown during his first week in office.

- The Trump claimed that he was “saved by God to make America great again” and promptly signed 26 executive orders.

- He declared a national emergency on the US border with Mexico.

- Announced 25% trade tariffs with Canada, China and Mexico despite them being the US’s biggest trade partners (they account for 40% of all US imports).

- He offered Canada to be part of the US, informed Greenland that he will probably grab that for the US as he quite liked it for their energy reserves and gave notice that he wants to control the Panama Canal.   

- The Trump gave a blanket pardon that effectively freed all the Capitol rioters from 2021 and erased the work of the largest criminal investigation in US history……an event that saw 5 people die!

- He signed withdrawals from the World Health Organisation and from the Paris Climate Agreement and eased restrictions on oil and gas exploration……or as The Trump put it……“drill baby drill”.

- The Trump announced that “we're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America”……and google maps duly obliged.

- He stated that he was confident that the Gaza ceasefire that ‘he’ created (a new one for me) will hold and then spoke about it as though it was a real estate opportunity…..“it has a phenomenal location, on the sea, the best weather.” Wow. Just the small matter of it looking like a war zone rather than a vacation hot spot might stop holiday makers though.

- He announced that “the US will now only recognise two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality". He then put all Government diversity staff on paid leave prior to the redundancy.

- The Trump called on Putin to stop the ridiculous war in Ukraine or Russia would face sanctions.

- He informed President Joe Biden that he would be prosecuted……with no information on exactly why……a technicality that he will make up later. He then repealed 78 of Joe B’s executive orders, including one which sought to reduce the price of prescription drugs for the poor and elderly.

That’s quite a marker to put down for your first week in office……even by The Trump’s chaotic standards. However you describe The Trump presidency…..it has certainly begun. 

The only saving grace I am clinging on to is that the 22^nd Amendment to the Constitution is clear that The Trump can’t be elected again having served two terms. Unless he rewrites the constitution……he couldn’t……could he?

The Numbers

The fallout from Rachel Jane Reeves first Budget in October is starting to look ugly. The premise of her Budget was to raise taxes by £40 billion and drive economic growth……the reality looks very different.

£25 billion that is to be raised from April through an increase in employer National Insurance contributions does not create economic growth. It creates a £25 billion cost that will be paid for by reducing staffing levels or increasing prices. Add to this the impending increase in the minimum wage and it is little surprise that 54% of businesses now plan to reduce labour. Official figures showed that employers are cutting jobs at the quickest rates since the financial crisis in 2009.

Business confidence slid to its lowest level in 13 months, driven by growing pessimism among retailers after the Budget. The Lloyds Bank business barometer has now dropped in 5 consecutive months since the Budget.

I have no problem in raising £40 billion, just don’t push this on the private sector and expect economic growth.

There is also the real prospect that interest rates won’t fall as quickly as expected, which is simply due to prices expected to increase because of the additional tax take. Some 61% of businesses intend to raise prices over the next year. The consequence is that we are saving more than ever as the UK bunkers down for prolonged inflation.

When 64% of the UK economy is based on consumer spending, saving more is not good for the economy. Low interest rates puts more money in our pockets and attracts spending. Economic growth can’t be created without cheap money and the prospect of inflation scuppers this.

There are always two very clear confidence markers that let us know what the rest of the world thinks of the UK (well, financially anyway).

Firstly, the exchange rate against the dollar. Sterling has weakened to a 15 month low against the dollar since the Budget (to $1.22), increasing the cost of imports as a consequence (another inflation contributor).

Then there is the cost at which the Government borrows money. The UK’s public debt interest bill already exceeds £100 billion annually. Such is the lack of confidence in Rachel Jane Reeves Budget, the cost for the Government to borrow money hit a 27-year high on 30 year loans and a 17-year high on 10 year loans. Or to put that another way……a further £7 billion of public money must now be found to pay for the increase in interest rates as we are deemed riskier to lend to……and this wasn’t factored into the Budget.

When Liz Truss threw an economic grenade into the economy in 2022 she did so without really knowing what she was doing or looking at the underlying figures. Rachel Jane Reeves studied the figures and still threw the grenade in……and her background is meant to be of economic excellence.

What an absolute mess……and yet Keir Rodney Starmer still has “complete faith” in her.

Little surprise that Rachel Jane Reeves headed off for some political flirting with China ……the 2^nd largest economy in the world and the UK's 4^th largest single trading partner. According to the Treasury, exports to China supported more than 455,000 UK jobs.

My own favourite number of the month……2……two continents in one city separated by the 1,560 metre Bosphorus Bridge. What a city Istanbul is! 

Trump of the Month

There was lunacy everywhere if you scratched beneath the surface of the media-addicted Trump coverage.

Peter Mandelson (remember Mandy?) was unveiled as Keir’s new US Ambassador. “The United States is one of our most important allies as we move into a new chapter in our friendship,” Keir proclaimed. Yet Keir chose someone who described The Trump as a “bully” in 2018 and "reckless and a danger to the world" in 2019. Read the room Keir.

It was no surprise that an adviser to The Trump called the incoming UK ambassador to the US "an absolute moron". I can’t disagree and the appointment lacks a lot of logic to embrace the special “friendship.” Crazy.

Keir Rodney Starmer wrote to the UK's main regulators asking them to come up with ideas for reform that could boost economic growth. We are 6 months into his term and he is already asking for ideas. Presumably he has no confidence in the Budget doing any good and has now run out of ideas. Labour have had over a decade to get creative and here we are with a Government void of inspiration. Moronic.

Suella Braverman said in a radio interview when discussing illegal immigration that she has "seen the wall on the land border between Italy and Turkey." Errrrr……I am pretty sure that they are 1,200 miles apart and don’t share a border. What next……geography lessons from the Flat Earth Society?

Perhaps Suella attending The Trump’s inauguration and seen wearing a 'Make America Great Again' cap explains her idiocy.

The most intriguing development was that of Tulip Siddiq. For all of the complexities and subtleties of the story (and there are plenty), the inescapable crux of it was something even the most polished public relations executive would struggle to add much gloss to. The investigation, by Bangladesh's Anti-Corruption Commission, is looking into claims Tulip Siddiq's family embezzled up to £3.9 billion. Tulip’s aunt (Sheikh Hasina) was the country's Prime Minister at the time of the embezzlement.

Tulip is the Economic Secretary to the Treasury with responsibility to drive anti-corruption……but is now named in a corruption investigation! You really couldn’t script it. Anti-Corruption Minister……perhaps Tulip simply misread her job title and thought she was Minister For Aunty Corruption. I’ll get my coat.

She is now the ‘former’ Economic Secretary to the Treasury. Awkward.

Clearly these are all worthy candidates for services to stupidity……but the Trump of The Month could only go to Donald John Trump……again. He simply takes absurdity to a whole new level……just look at his first week in office.

His craziness is summed up perfectly by his relationship with Elon Musk. Four minutes into the new presidency, The Trump invited the richest man in the world to speak at his inaugural parade event and Elon Musk gave a 'nazi salute'……twice……and The Trump never flinched.

Just the next 207 weeks to endure until this folly is all over.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

“History repeats itself and that's just how it goes.” J. Cole.