August is always a funny time in my world as Parliament departs for 6 weeks of holidays along with most of the financial / economic nerds and ‘expert’ commentators.
This creates a gap in my usual reading and thinking……which creates a vacuum……which creates the need to fill it……but it always ends up being with random stuff.
This year’s edition was another classic example……
I was listening to the radio whilst driving and Frank Skinner was being interviewed as he’s promoting his new stand up show. I then decide to google his career back catalogue. This leads me to watching random YouTube clips of him presenting the TV show, Room 101. I then spend half a day researching (google obviously) the term ‘Room 101’ for context.
And before you know it, a day has been lost falling down a George Orwell (real name - Eric Arthur Blair – you’re welcome) sized rabbit hole to create a new mini hobby……studying aspects of the English language that he has created. Terms such as ‘big brother’, ‘thought police’, ‘doublethink’ and ‘memory hole’ all trace back to George Orwell’s work.
Anyway, ‘Room 101’ stems from George Orwell’s book, 1984, in which Room 101 was where people were tortured with their worst fears. Apparently, Orwell named Room 101 after an actual conference room in BBC Broadcasting House where he had to endure numerous tedious meetings (again, you’re very welcome).
I then emerged from the rabbit hole with a clear determination to create my own Room 101 list as a mark of respect to George Orwell’s work. It’s a comprehensive list of worst fears to be tortured by:
- Losing the end of the Sellotape……and losing the next hour of your life trying to resolve it.
- Enduring people who still use 1990’s abbreviate text speak in messages when we live in a world of predictive text couldn’t make it any easier. Thx M8.
- Confusing toilet signs that use characters and not words. Call me old fashioned, but I like a clear ‘Mens’ sign followed by a very obvious urinal. No confusing characters followed by embarrassing wrong choices……just efficient toilet business.
- Fishy foods in the workplace……especially if microwaved.
- Glitter on anything……especially on birthday cards. Just stop it.
- All staff in WHSmith who seem legally bound to upsell. For the record, I don't want a Telegraph with my bottle of water or a bar of dairy milk or a voucher for a calendar or a half price Richard Osman book. I am simply trying to catch a train and just wanted a drink to keep hydrated without you individually offering me every item in the shop.
- Umbrellas are the devil’s work. The amount of people who don't seem to take into account the space needs of other people around them makes these one of the deadliest weapons on our streets. If I went around randomly swinging a spiked ball on the end of a chain, it would pretty much be the same thing.
- Clingfilm. I have a success rate of 1 clean tear per 100 uses. That means I am ready to explode with anger every 99 uses.
- Courier Drivers know they have a set route, the number of deliveries, the number of parcels and generally how long it will take to complete a route. Obviously expected delivery times may vary based on people answering the door, finding certain houses and roadworks but please give me something better than the “between 08:00 and 22:00” window. Surely you can narrow down that fourteen hour window to three hours? And don't even get me started on knocking on the door and waiting three seconds for me to answer. I'm not Usain Bolt and it’s not a race.
- Shop assistants who insist on giving you your change by putting the bank note in your palm first and then balancing all the coins on top of it so you invariably drop them as you faff about trying to get the note in your purse / wallet. Coin balancer must stop. Life is too short for this nonsense.
- 110% (or multiples thereof) are utter nonsense also. “Well done! You gave that 110% effort!” No they didn’t! You can’t possibly give more than 100% effort! 100% effort is the most you can give! This applies to people who agree with someone 200% or 300%! You can’t even agree with someone 101% never mind 300%!
- Bagpipes are one of the worst things ever invented. Up there with nuclear bombs.
- Supermarket carpark etiquette needs a complete overhaul. How is it that when you are reversing out of your parking space in the supermarket people decide to walk past as if they have a death wish or something! Or is it just my car?
- People on quiet coaches that don’t get that the clue is in the title.
And my biggest fear to be tortured by……
- People who blog as they have such a grand feeling of self-importance that they must force people to endure their written rubbish.
I am sure we can all relate to the last point.
The Numbers
Aside from the atrocious protests and riots (since when did stealing a stake bake and setting fire to a library become a ‘thing’ to make a point?), three significant events dominated the numbers this month.
The first and most significant was the new Chancellor’s address to Parliament. Rachel Reeves announced that Labour had inherited a £22 billion black hole from the Tories……the worst that any new Government has received since the Second World War.
Reeves included a projected £6.4 billion on asylum and immigration because of the cost of accommodating people and the Rwanda refugee scheme. Military assistance to Ukraine had exceeded reserves by £1.7 billion while propping up the railways cost £1.6 billion. The bill for meeting the independent recommendations for public sector pay rises came in at £9.4 billion.
One of the most contentious announcements from Reeves was a decision to end universal winter fuel payments for pensioners, except those on benefits. The payments (worth £300) ending will impact 10 million and save the Government about £1.5 billion.
Reeves committed the Government to £9 billion of pay rises for 6 million public sector workers. NHS workers and teachers will receive pay rises of 5.5% per cent while most other sectors will receive pay hikes of 5%. Reeves pledged to resolve the junior doctors dispute with a pay rise of 22% over 2 years.
And when you’re in a fiscal pickle, there are only 3 options available……increase taxes……reduce public services……or both. We’ve been given fair warning that it is likely to be both.
None of this fundamentally changes the longer-term challenges. The Chancellor cannot honestly announce a series of tax rises in her October budget, blame them on this economic hole that she has just “discovered” and claim that she couldn’t have known pre-election that tax rises would be needed to maintain public services. That fact was obvious to all who cared to look.
The second event was the closely-run decision (5-4) to lower interest rates to 5% (from 5.25%). The first cut since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.
Headline inflation has stabilised at the Bank of England’s 2% target for the past two months (the lowest level since July 2021), with Bank governor Andrew Bailey announcing that lower inflation had paved the way for the fall in interest rates.
Financial markets predict that there is a 75% chance that UK interest rates will be cut again in November after the Labour government holds its first Budget at the end of October.
Interest rate reductions generally are definitely a theme. The Eurozone’s central bank, which sets interest rates for 20 countries that use the single currency, reduced its main deposit rate from 4% to 3.75% a month ago (the first lowering for 5 years)
The third event was the unexpected setback for the American economy, with hiring falling sharply and the unemployment rate rising.
The weak data and the US Federal Reserve’s decision this week to hold interest rates at the present 23-year high of 5.25% - 5.50% increased fears about growth prospects in the world’s largest economy.
The latest figures from the US Labour Department showed that employers had added only 114,000 jobs, 35% fewer than forecasters and that unemployment was now up to 4.3% (the highest level since October 2021).
It sparked a sharp sell-off on global stock markets with Japan’s Nikkei 225 suffering its largest one-day decline since 1987 (-12%). Quite a reaction from the world’s third largest economy!
Lost amongst these three big events was news of Labour’s incredibly ambitious target of 370,000 new homes a year. This was an increase from a target of 300,000 under the last Government, which itself was never met. Last year, just 189,000 were built.
The thing is, any target can be constructed but the magic is in actually hitting it. Exactly where is the extra labour required to expand so dramatically?
Just before the election, the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) estimated that an extra 251,000 workers were needed over the next 5 years just to stand still on last year’s building numbers. The sector has about 55,000 vacancies.
I’m all for ambition and improvements but let’s be realistic and lose the political spin.
My own favourite number of the month……8……the number of miles kayaked on the River Tees with the little lady.
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Let’s not beat around the bush……August 2024’s Trump of the Month award could only go to……rioters.
I was explaining the protests turned riots to a friend who was after an explanation of what was sparking the unrest. I really struggled, but here’s the best I could do……
Protest marches turned to riots to punish Muslims for the killing of three innocent little girls in Southport. However, the guilty subject was not a Muslim but a youth born in Cardiff to Rwandan parents. This mattered little and religious affiliation was not copiously vetted……just skin colour. Demonstrators weren’t hugely picky about who got a bloody nose or their car torched or their front door kicked down.
This then turned into damage being done by white British youths seeking thrills and adrenaline. Not driven by ideology or genuine rage but by a desire for excitement. I’m not sure just how much excitement you can get from throwing stones at police or looting a ‘Shoezone’ though.
And that was it. That was the best explanation I could come up with.
Just imagine how those poor Southport grieving parents must be feeling on top of a hugely upsetting and emotional time.
Shameful, embarrassing and utterly maddening.
Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10
And Finally……
“The people will believe what the media tells them they believe.”
George Orwell
