The Month That Was……July 2024

I like politics. I like numbers. There’s only one thing for it then……a political numbers special this month.

You’re very welcome.

After 43 days and 8 debates……Labour it is.

There was no rioting in the streets. No burning of cars. No damage to public buildings. Not even a spiteful speech here or there (Keir and Rishi actually paid each other compliments!). The most controversial thing that happened was a removal truck arriving at Number 10 a few minutes early.

In fact, it was a truly dignified transfer of power……especially compared with the treasonous chaos in the USA in January 2020 after Donald Trump lost the election there.

For the record……

14 years that included……5 Prime Ministers, 7 Chancellors, 8 Foreign Secretaries, 13 Culture Secretaries, 8 Home Secretaries and 16 Housing Ministers. If the Government were a Head Teacher, the school would be in Special Measures.

We’ve endured David Cameron’s self-loving smugness, Thereas May’s chaos, BoJo’s lies (and lies about his lies), the Liz Truss experiment and Rishi’s vanilla approach to everything.

It marks the end of 20 months of Rishi’s time in office, as Keir becomes the UK’s 58^th Prime Minister.

But some significant legacies have been left. We must continue to endure the fallout from Brexit that is costing us £100 billion a year in loss trade, we have the worst trade deficit since records began and our national debt is at £3 trillion. Now that’s a legacy.

Whist this was a spectacular victory for Labour given they came from the doldrums (their result in 2019 was their worst since 1935), the story of this election is one of an electorate showing a ruthless determination to eject the Conservatives. It was a loveless Labour landslide win.

Conservatives suffered their worst electoral defeat in history and were left with just 121 MPs. The Tory rhetoric has proved to be so divisive for the country that they also managed to divide their own party. Quite the achievement.

Labour took 412 seats, giving a majority of 174.

Liberal Democrats (remember them!) won their highest tally since 1923, taking 72 seats.

Nigel Farage became the MP for Clacton. He will finally go to Westminster after 8 attempts, 30 years after his first attempt. Thanks for that Clacton.

I found the most amusing aspect of the election was watching Tory MPs who usually talk complete (add word to suit) lose their seat. I assumed that they could finally relax, drop the party line, be themselves and finally open up……but yet they continued to talk absolute (add word to suit). Priceless. 

The most bizarre element of the election was the speed with which Keir jetted off to America. Presumably after permission from the King to form a Government we must now ask permission from the President. 

Perhaps the most worrying part of the election is the election itself.

Labour received 34% of the votes yet won 64% of the seats. Consider this……Labour’s national vote share was just 2% higher than it was in 2019 and yet it has gained 211 seats.

I tried explaining the logic of this to an American recently. I failed. I am now failing to convince myself also.

In a weak moment, I almost felt sorry for Nigel Farage……despite winning 14% of the national vote, Reform gained 4 seats, the equivalent to 1% per cent of the seat share. .

Perhaps it’s time to reconsider how voting and MP electing works in reality as there does seem to be a need for consideration given that 66% of voters did not vote Labour……yet they won handsomely.

Regardless, Labour’s share of the vote is the lowest won by a post-war single-party Government, suggesting a breadth, not a depth to its support.

British politics has changed profoundly. The challenges for those now leading it have not.

Interesting times.

Elsewhere, my own favourite number of the month……2……the number of end of School year awards the little lady won. 

Trump of the Month

So many worthy candidates this month……rich pickings in fact.

Rishi was always a strong consideration given the dreadful showing at the genny lec. The failure was spectacular yet he was probably the wrong person at the wrong time to inherit the Bojo-Truss mess that was difficult to clean up.

I wanted my Michael Portillo moment and I was not disappointed with two absolute beauties……

Firstly, Jacob Rees-Mogg lost to Dan Norris who celebrated……“We’ve got Mogg-xit done.” Joyful.

And then Lizzie went as well! Already the shortest-serving Prime Minister in history, Liz Truss also become the first former leader since 1935 to lose their seat. Double joy.

She then had the audacity to appear on US TV to proclaim that Kamala Harris isn’t qualified to lead a country. Let’s be fair, if anyone knows about not being qualified to lead a country it's Lizzie.

Not to be outdone, Nigel Farage described Kamala Harris as a “black African woman.” Just for the record and to avoid any confusion here Nige, Kamala Harris is not African……her parents are Indian and Jamaican. I imagine Kamala Harris would describe Nigel Farage as: “Exactly who is he?”

In any other month Joe Biden would have been a shoe-in. During a TV debate in front of an audience of 50 million he garbled answers and at one point he ground to a halt completely. Like a robot running out of batteries. At a later press conference, Joe B introduced Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” and he referred to Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump.” Utter madness.

And then there is The Trump. Where do we start with this?

In May he was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records. But a ruling this month grants former Presidents immunity from prosecution for “official actions” taken while in office. The official action The Trump took when in office was to sign off his business accounts whilst he was in “office” that included the hush money paid to an ‘adult’ actress and then falsifying the payment through his business.

Or to put that another way……he definitely didn’t do it but, if he did, he was President at the time and that makes it OK. He now wants immunity for things that he definitely didn’t do. Still with me?  

The craziness continued by living to tell the tale of a truly despicable assassination attempt……by a member of his own political party. Two days later he was back on stage (with Hulk Hogan) to announce JD Vance as his running mate for the election campaign……somebody that previously called him an “idiot” and “America’s Hitler.”

And then on the back of the assassination attempt and increase in coverage, the share price of The Trump’s social media company rose by a third, giving the former President a paper profit of about $1.2 billion. Nice work if you can get it.

And then the cherry on the cake……Joe B stood down from the Presidential election race as he simply couldn’t compete with the levels of craziness, limelight and increased (head scratching) support offered to The Trump. With defeat staring Jo B in the face, he stood down. Nobody wants a loss to The Trump on their CV.  

He craves madness……he makes little sense……he is a complete lunatic……but he is consistent with the craziness. Month after month. The Trump of the Month for July 2024 could only go to Donald.

Utter madness.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

And Finally……

““Change is the law of life, and those who look only to the past and present are certain to miss the future.”

John F. Kennedy

The Month That Was……June 2024

I’ve consciously done all I can to not get consumed by the run up to July 4^th (or “Genny Lec” if you’re under the age of 20). My daily analysis of the news over breakfast has been replaced by various distraction activities so that I don’t get consumed by reading about the demoralising state of British politics. 

Probably the highlight of my strategy was people watching over a hotel buffet breakfast recently. It’s fascinating stuff……a David Attenborough documentary in waiting. People’s food gathering techniques and tactics are simply captivating. 

There’s the ‘collector’ who likes a little bit of everything all on one plate……sausage, watermelon, curry, cheese, noodles……get it all on there in one buffet visit.

Whereas ‘the monk’ is so in control of their temptations that they manage to have one piece of brown toast and an apple. In and done in under 7 minutes.

Conversely, the ‘long hauler’ arrives at 7am and they’ll leave the table at 11am (breakfast ends at 10am). The staff have to set up around them for lunch service.

The ‘magpie’ likes mushrooms. So they think they should rightly have ALL the fried mushrooms on offer and actually take the serving dish. They eat two and leave the rest.

The ‘dawdler’ never sits down. They slowly circle the spread with a little white plate in one hand whilst scratching the back of their head with the other. Completely paralysed by choice.

The ‘three courser’ starts with good intentions (yoghurt and fruit), then treats themselves a little bit (a few mini pastries), then lets go of all control (full English with 18 hashbrowns). They normally share a table with the ‘challenger’ who assumes that an ‘all you can eat’ buffet is a challenge and attempt to eat as much as humanly possible without actually exploding.

The ‘return tripper’ forgets the butter, then the jam, sugar, teaspoon, milk, fruit, extra napkin……just about everything. They spend the majority of their time apologising for getting in everyone’s way as they try to grab what they want.

They can only dream of being the ‘one visit victor’, who only visits the buffet once and comes back with 5 plates of food and three drinks.

The ‘secret sandwich maker’ wants sandwiches for lunch. So here they are, constructing enough ham and cheese baguettes under the table to feed a bus full of tourists.

As you can see, I have filled the void caused by my self-imposed breakfast media blackout with constructive observations. 

As for me? I am definitely the ‘watching weirdo’ who collects enough from the buffet to get them through their busy day, then sits down in a corner and watches all the other guests to see what wacky food combinations they choose.

Politics avoided. Void filled. Constructive observations. Honest self-analysis of being a weirdo. Four big boxes ticked.

The Numbers

Aside from the political build up, the big news of the month was inflation hitting the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost 3 years. Inflation hit 2% this month, down from 2.3%.

Within minutes of the inflation announcement, two predictable responses followed.

Firstly, Rishi jumped on the bandwagon with the “our plan is working” rubbish, despite having no influence on inflation (or he would never have let it rise to 11.1% 2 years ago!).

Secondly, the pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates exploded.

To understand the Bank of England’s position and reluctance to reduce the interest rate requires a little scratching below the surface.  

- Food prices overall are still 25% higher than at the beginning of 2022.

- Petrol prices increased during the month, rising by 0.7p per litre.

- Services sector costs remain high and have increased by 5.7% in the last 12 months.

- Official figures on renting showed average rents paid to private landlords in the UK rose by 8.7%.

Clearly there is more to inflation than the headline figure and it was no surprise that the Bank of England held the interest rate at 5.25% (a 16 year high) for the 7^th meeting in a row.

But the continued high level of interest causes many a problem.

Mortgage arrears are at their highest for more than 7 years as many struggle at the higher interest rate level. The total value of home loan balances with arrears climbed by 44.5% (year on year) to £21.3 billion. The overall proportion of mortgage balances that are behind on payments is 1.28% and the highest level since 2016.

And if that isn’t alarming enough, there are likely to be more problems in the post……3 million UK households who are currently paying relatively low fixed mortgage rates will see monthly repayments jump by around 28% on average within 2 years when their current fixed rate ends.

Although I have been trying to avoid as much of the political nonsense as possible (or at least not be consumed by it first thing on a morning), a few interesting snippets have stood out.

- 58% of voters are politically homeless with no political party they like. Just 22% like what’s on offer. This is a resounding “none of the above” rejection of the Westminster Inn’s political menu.

- UK’s debt burden has now reached almost 100% of GDP, a 30 year high (the highest level since equivalent records began in 1993).

So it actually doesn’t matter who reaches Number 10 as the debt burden handcuffs underscore the significant challenges for the next Government. Both the Conservatives and Labour have promised to reduce debt and they will need to find £30 billion in savings or tax rises just to stabilise public debt over the next decade. If nothing else the debt level should stop another Liz Truss style off-piste fiasco! 

My favourite number of the month……321……as in 3^rd place in the 800 metres, 2^nd in the 200 metres and 1^st in the 4 x 100 metre relay.  

 Trump of the Month

It has been difficult to find worthy candidates this month that have got close to the lunatic traits of the winner. The Trump of the Month award for June 2024 could only be……Rishi Sunak

It has been a disastrous month for Rishi……perhaps his worst since he stepped into Number 10……and that’s quite a statement!

It started with him declaring that “I want to restore pride and confidence to this country,” yet he has been the man who has already been in charge of restoring pride and confidence for the past two years!

Then just a few months after claiming he couldn’t access his WhatsApp messages for the Covid Inquiry, he asked voters to “trust me to deal with cybersecurity threats to the country.” The same week NHS medical records were hacked and the Conservative Party had to refer itself to the watchdog after publishing member email addresses.

Then Rishi visited a McVities warehouse in a hi-vis jacket to rock his ‘man of the people’ look. He took two questions from staff who were later found to be Conservative Councillors posing as warehouse workers who were asked to appear in disguise.

Rishi then went full-on mental when announcing that National Service was being bought back. Who had “bringing back National Service” on their General Election bingo card? Nobody! Let’s face it, this isn’t going to work. Within hours of the policy being announced, it was clear there were no actual detailed plans for how he could make it work. Probably because the whole “fining the parents” thing would mean rewriting every understanding of what it is to be an adult.

He then went on a TV debate and claimed “back me for lower interest rates.” Firstly, he has absolutely no control over interest rates. Secondly, if he did have control, why has he allowed interest rates to be at a 16 year high since he became PM?

In the same debate, Rishi announced that “independent Treasury officials have costed Labour's policies and they amount to a £2,000 tax rise for every working family.” The next morning the Treasury Permanent Secretary responded with “civil servants were not involved in the production or presentation of the Conservative Party’s figures.” So that’s a lie then.

Rishi then left a D-Day anniversary service in France early (leaving David Cameron to stand with world leaders for photos) to return to the UK to conduct a TV interview for his General Election campaign. Read the room Rishi. Read the room.

The most enlightening quote on Rishi’s reasons for leaving early was that it was a “French thing.” I’m pretty sure it was the Second World War and that was infamously a global event!

Later that day he talked of his own sacrifices growing up…..he didn’t have Sky TV. Wow. Rishi is clearly so good at relating to ordinary people who are struggling to pay their bills that he went without Sky TV while attending a £51,000 per year public school. On the day of the D-Day anniversary, Rishi clearly felt it was the ultimate sacrifice.

When quizzed by Sky TV on all things politics, the was also asked to “tell us something interesting about yourself?”. His response……“I love Haribo and a Twix.” That was it. He eats sweet things. Stop the press.

Behaviour like this can only mean one thing……it’s a last throw of the dice by doing his best BoJo impression. You can understand the logic behind it given that BoJo was the last elected Prime Minister and we all fell blindly for it.

Rishi has left it a little late to father numerous children out of wedlock……but no doubt the Tories can probably rustle up half a dozen kids before the polls open.

The Trump of the Month award for June 2024 could only go to……Rishi.

Utter madness.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“I may be crazy, but it keeps me from going insane.”

Waylon Jennings