The Month That Was......July 2022

A couple of big lessons for us in the UK this month.

Lesson 1: If you are the Prime Minister, you can probably tell about two big fat lies a year at most.

The national digestive system can process a couple of fibs over the course of a year……parliament, the press and the public will chew hard on them but eventually they will be swallowed. However, try a third lie and the whole system gets constipated and hard to pass. You can’t start eating a new plate of fresh whoppers when you are still on the toilet dealing with the last one. It makes people tetchy and they don’t know if they’re coming or going.

Or to put that all another way……piling Partygate on top of Wallpapergate on top of Chris Pincher, BoJo turned the Westminster digestive system into chaos. It got messy.

Lesson 2: Hiring known sex pests doesn’t work out. I thought we all knew this but it turns out we didn’t. And bizarrely, we have learnt that, against all common sense, you can get away with it for months (actually years) at a time. 

So, two very important lessons going forwards guys.

The third lie that brought BoJo down involved MP Chris Pincher who was accused of groping 2 men after getting drunk. Pincher resigned but BoJo didn’t withdraw the whip from him.

Pincher already had to resign as a whip in 2019 for groping people and faced investigations into groping in 2017 also.

Despite years of warnings, BoJo appointed him as a whip for a second time in February.

BoJo claimed “HR law” meant he wasn’t allowed to NOT give Pincher a job. No such law exists. He then stated that “he wasn't aware of the previous allegations” and that “he considers the matter closed”.

BoJo said “he wasn’t aware of any previous scandal”, then changed it to “he wasn’t aware of any specific scandal” and then changed it again to “he wasn’t aware of any serious specific scandal”. Then he said he was aware of “rumours of scandals” but only the unproven ones. Are you still with me?

Pretty much everyone and anyone called for him to go. Enough was enough. And still BoJo didn’t resign……claiming that he had to stay because 14 million voted for him. In fact 25,351 voted for him because he is a constituency MP, not a president. Pretty basic politics surely?  

So 57 MP’s decided that there was a whiff of a third lie and resigned in just over 24 hours and he couldn’t fill the positions to maintain a cabinet. There was only one thing remaining……the lectern in front of number 10. 

BoJo’s resignation speech contained not one scintilla of contrition……just a  bragging list of arguable successes and blaming others for his predicament. Boasting, blathering and blaming everyone but himself. The manner of his departure should tell you everything you need to know - no dignity, just delusion and desperation to retain power no matter the harm it does to our country.

What a terrible final speech by a man who turned out to be a truly terrible Prime Minister.

The Numbers

The back drop to most financial and economic news is the continuing rise of inflation……at the fastest rate for more than 40 years, driven by higher petrol and food costs.

UK inflation jumped to 9.4% brought about by significant rises in the cost of petrol, milk, cheese and eggs.

What does it say about this country when supermarkets have started putting security tags on Cheese and Lurpak? When Lurpak is described as 'spreadable' is that the product itself or the payments for it?

On the back of the rise in inflation, the cost of servicing Government debt has hit its highest point in 25 years. The cost of interest payments on Government debt was £19.4 billion, more than double that of 12 months ago and the highest since records began in 1997.

It’s no surprise that the cost of living is dominating the leadership debate between Rishi and Lizzie as the increased cost of pretty much everything is the hot topic. The easiest thing is to put more money in the pockets of the masses through tax cuts……it’s always a vote winner.   

Yes, I know you are fed up with the Tory leadership contest already but we will be hearing a lot about tax cuts from Rishi Sunak (not now, but perhaps later) and Liz Truss (both now and later).

Lizzie has sought to draw a clear difference between herself and Rishi, promising tax cuts from "day one" that will include:

- Reversing the Health and Social Care Levy which saw a 1.25% rise in national insurance

- Cancelling a planned increase in Corporation Tax from 19% to 25%.

- Suspending the green energy levy added to energy bills.

Those tax cuts come at a cost of around £30 billion and there is a real risk that it could push inflation even higher (and interest rates as a consequence).

The biggest subject they are avoiding is the jobs crisis……there are too few people to do the available work.

There was, as so often, something for everybody in the latest official labour market figures. They include the headline grabbing announcement of a record 2.8% fall in real-terms of regular pay over the past 12 months. Those looking for evidence that the economy is not about to dive into recession could see it in a very strong 296,000 rise in employment for the past three months.

There was also evidence that employment growth has slowed though….but job vacancies stand at a whopping 1.3 million.

The labour market is a bit like watching the weather. It has been running very hot and for many firms recruitment difficulties have never been greater. Few people expected that we would emerge from the pandemic with the most intense labour shortages in the modern era. The question is whether we will need a big storm, in the shape of a recession, to ease those shortages.

An increase in unemployment might not be a bad thing in the short term caused by business failure. Latest information on businesses that have fallen into arrears on their bounceback loan repayments suggests that there is trouble brewing.

20% of small businesses are now in arrears with the covid support loans, which is 193,000 firms. Perhaps the centrepiece of Rishi’s plan to help smaller firms during the depths of the pandemic when he was Chancellor simply kicked the can along the road.

Trump of the Month

Let’s not mess about with preamble……this month’s Trump of The Month can only be the Conservative Party. 

So BoJo has gone. Well, no, he’s resigned and will stay on because he’s a thoroughly decent chap with a moral compass we can all be proud of. Or perhaps he needs a couple of months to take his gold wallpaper down?

And so we are left with BoJo as Prime Minister and not Prime Minister. It seems astonishing that a man who has been forced to resign due to sleaze and chaos he created is now trusted to remain as caretaker until such times that the useless Tories decide what they should do to replace him.

But this is a Tory party facing the truth that they have been complicit in enabling one of the most dangerously incompetent, untrustworthy and selfish individuals to have ever occupied Number 10 for as long as he has.

This is a man who went through three ethics advisers and then made the position redundant so that he could behave as he wanted rather than being made accountable to some pretty basic morals.

But the deafening cries from the Tory party of “enough is enough” that toppled BoJo are from the same people who have watched him take a flame thrower to their party and our constitution for three long years. Mess up after mess up. Lie after lie. What were the Tory party thinking? That he would improve at some point?

If the reason that so many Tory MP’s wanted BoJo to go was because of a lack of trust and integrity……why did you put him in power in the first place? This hasn’t been an overnight change in character……the evidence has been there for decades.

The Tory party should hang their head in shame. Just look at what we are left with……the lowest trust in politics ever……a governing party with a complete lack of ethics, morals, direction or ideas……a worthless ministerial code……an oven ready Brexit that even BoJo admits is unworkable……a covid response that has been found to be criminally negligent. 

It is sobering to think that this is the same group of useless MPs that have decided that it should be Rishi or Lizzie to take over.

What an absolute mess.  

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

And Finally……

“Behind every beautiful thing, there’s been some kind of pain.”

Bob Dylan

The Month That Was……June 2022

I have apocalypse fatigue. I am tired of the looming apocalypse I am being brainwashed into believing is coming. But which one to pick……I am spoilt for choice! There are just so many horsemen thundering towards us……or at least that’s how it feels.

Yesterday’s newspaper alone had about eight different apocalypses in the first ten pages.

I’m not sure how much longer we can deal with these levels of anxiety. Everyone appears exhausted after five years of Brexit, Covid, the cost of living crisis, wars and political chaos. Our adrenaline levels are through the roof. The country is beginning to feel like four-year-old Prince Louis after hours of jubilee celebrations and sugar rushes……frazzled and mildly hysterical with too few grown-ups to calm us down.

We desperately need a mental rest from all of this……but that looks a forlorn hope. Even the idea of a holiday stirs panic. It’s not only 180p-a-litre petrol or a 17 hour snaking check-in queue at the airport, last minute cancelled flights, delayed passports or hours spent queueing at immigration control before finding that your luggage is lost…..there’s the cost of this winter’s heating to factor in before most people can book a break.

Almost everyone has a reason to be worried even though we are through the worst of the pandemic…..commuters must contend with a summer of strikes, families are struggling with childcare costs, the young with rents and the elderly with shopping bills.

The pandemic has also left scars. There are now two million people with long Covid and a terrifying backlog for GP and hospital appointments. Then chuck in bloody Monkeypox for good measure!

Ideally, of course, ministers would be there to reassure. The Education Secretary, instead of sending inane tweets to shore up his inept leader, would be focused on ending the strikes in universities, revising the exam system and looking into the 2 million children regularly missing school. The Health Secretary would be single-mindedly tackling NHS waiting lists rather than embarrassing himself defending BoJo. But they are all mired in their own crisis and in permanent campaign mode for a Prime Minister they know isn’t fit for purpose.

To end this age of anxiety, we are going to need dependable, decent and competent leadership. Is that too much to ask……it appears so.

In the absence of leadership it’s down to us to manage this apocalypse fatigue. Humanity is resilient. Civilisation is resilient. Fatalism is delicious but it is also lazy as hell. Remember that. Making us shriek when we could be problem solving is just a selfish grab for our attention.  

There will be no apocalypses. I’m almost sure of it……not even one.

  

The Numbers

A huge month of numbers for BoJo……he survived a party confidence vote…..just. The Prime Minister (at the time of writing) won 59% of the vote, meaning he is now immune from a Conservative leadership challenge for a year.

The vote share in support of BoJo was lower than the 63% received by former Prime Minister Theresa May when she won a party confidence vote in 2018, before resigning six months later over a Brexit deadlock.

Even by BoJo’s standards of uselessness, it is a remarkable ‘performance’ to turn a landslide win with an 80 seat majority into a vote of no confidence in such a short period of time. When 4 in 10 of your own MPs think the country would be better off without you, you have a problem.

Talking of problems……the Bank of England have one as they have simply not predicted or controlled runaway inflation. That problem is now our problem. Yeah, thanks for that Andrew Bailey.

Prices are continuing to rise at their fastest rate for 40 years as food, energy and fuel costs continue to climb. UK inflation edged up to 9.1%......the highest level since 1982. The Bank of England has warned inflation will reach 11% this year.

The Bank of England reacted by increasing interest rates from 1.0% to 1.25%......the highest level in 13 years. It's interesting that they've held back from rising by half a percentage point, which was what a lot of people were expecting.

It is also interesting to reflect on how out of touch the Bank of England has been……

May 2021: "Inflation will peak at 2%"

Aug 2021: "Inflation will peak at 4%"

Nov 2021: "Inflation will peak at 5%"

Feb 2022: "Inflation will peak at 7%"

May 2022: "Inflation will peak at 10%"

June 2022: "Inflation will peak at 11%"

I am struggling to understand the point of the Bank of England as an independent taxpayer funded entity. Answers on a postcard to the usual address.

The Bank of England reminded the public to spend any paper £20 and £50 notes before 30 September as they will no longer be legal tender. Presumably because they will no longer be worth enough to buy anything.

Surging inflation also increased interest payments on Government debt……a whopping £7.6 billion for the month (an increase of £3.1 billion for the same month in 2021). This is largely a result of higher inflation due to the interest paid on Government Bonds rising in line with the Retail Prices Index measure of inflation (which hit 12%).

The US central bank took a far more aggressive stance to tackle inflation with its biggest rate hike in nearly 30 years. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75%……the single biggest tightening in monetary policy since 1994. Now that’s action.

Fuel prices got really horrible this month and they reached another record high. The average car will now cost £100 to fill up. But what’s that made up of? (I hear you ask)

£16.67 is VAT

£32.74 is fuel duty

£35.84 for the wholesaler

£  9.71 is biofuel content

£  3.92 to the retailer

£  1.12 is delivery costs

Remember the above the next time BoJo wheels out one of his lieutenants to blame petrol retailers for not passing on this or that and that the forecourts are ripping you off. It’s utter tosh. 

I read an extraordinary statistic. In 2008 when oil prices peaked at $144 a barrel, no one in Britain paid more than 120p per litre of petrol. Today, the oil price is $113 but pump prices are 186p per litre. The difference is the collapse in sterling from $2 to $1.20.

The alternative to filling up your car is to go electric. However, a Government scheme that gave £1,500 towards the cost of an electric car or plug-in hybrid closed to new orders this month (without notice). Presumably petrol / diesel is now completely OK for the environment now we have inflation? Madness.

One measure that was a welcome introduction this month was the new national food strategy that confirmed a shift in emphasis to allow land management schemes to reflect “farmer demand”. The UK is hugely reliant on imports, producing roughly 64% of our food, down from 78% 40 years ago. The UK really needs to be more self-sufficient. 

Perhaps the most bizarre figure this month was that the US Navy had received a 500% increase in applications since the new Top Gun film was aired. Because nothing quite says “war looks fun” like a 59 year old actor full of make-up limping into a fighter plane.

 

Trump of the Month

The whole point of the Trump of the Month award is to recognise total incompetence to the point of lunacy……or to put that another way……acting and behaving like Donald Trump. 

I have yet to find anybody that has got close to The Trump’s consistent buffoonery……with one exception……BoJo. 

This month is a classic example of BoJo’s exceptional consistency and he was the only worthy candidate for the Trump of the Month award.

What to make of the party confidence vote. 211 MP’s thought he was doing a grand job (they are literally robbing a living) and 148 thought not. He survived.

Now consider this……there are currently 95 ministers and 41 parliamentary private secretaries who are obliged to vote with the Government in the House of Commons no matter what or they must resign. Therefore, there are 136 MPs that were handcuffed to vote in favour. That 211 looks a little flimsy now. 

BoJo’s response to the confidence vote that week was classic Trump stuff……

BoJo said that it was an “extremely good, positive, decisive” result. Really?

Then he bumbled along saying that he’ll make the NHS “a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix.”  

As far as I remember, Blockbuster didn’t fare too well after Netflix came along. Make of that what you will. But I mean, aside from anything else, that’s just a lunatic statement isn’t it? What does it even mean?

He then said the UK will have the worst performance in the G7 next year because "we came out of the pandemic first, so had a faster recovery". Errrrr……so we're doing badly because we're doing so well? Crazy stuff.

Then he said “we need to build 300,000 more homes”. Then he said “building more homes isn't the answer”. And then he said “we've never built enough homes”. And then he said “he was building more than Labour”……but then repeated that “building more homes isn't the answer”. Still with me?

BoJo said this was a “housing revolution”…..Shelter called it “baffling, unworkable and dangerous”. The loyal lieutenant Michael Gove called it a “marvellous scheme”. The New Economics Foundation called it “totally detached from reality”.

And that pretty much sums up BoJo in a nutshell…… totally detached from reality.

As I have said far too often…… one day we will look back and wonder how the hell did someone as inept and untrustworthy as Boris Johnson get the keys to number 10. The most important job in the country given to a man who is the epitome of what is wrong. Where entitlement and privilege replace talent.

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

 And Finally……

 “Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other.”

 Mark Twain