The Month That Was……October 2020

Whilst not planned, October has been a month of much reflection for me. When a temporary solution to a temporary problem becomes a permanent problem, I guess it is natural to reflect and consider why.

 

In periods of great chaos, there can sometimes be moments of great clarity. Moments when the clouds part, the disagreements subside and we glimpse a vital truth. It feels like we have reached such a moment.

 

The vital truth is……the trust in our leadership has gone.

 

Without public trust, people will not comply with guidance, whether advisory or mandatory. They will not have faith in Government, will not trust the data and will not trust fellow citizens to do their bit.

 

Leaders in Taiwan, New Zealand, Sweden, South Korea and Germany have communicated in clear, broadly honest ways. They have treated their citizens as grown-ups and there has been huge public compliance (way above the critical level necessary to retain control of an epidemic).

 

Just as the success stories share a pattern, so too do the failures. In the UK the public rallied to the Government in the early days of the crisis but then as Government failed to deliver the promise of “world-beating” this, “world-class” that and standing by those who visit Barnard Castle for an eye-test, trust began to vanish.  

We need more than simply chest beating from BoJo. Optimism can, of course, be a good thing. Grandstanding can galvanise. But when the gap between rhetoric and reality is too wide, words lose their meaning. The public sees through the charade. And this is why trust matters. It is critical.

 

We could blame confusing rules or mixed messages for breaches and non-compliance……but this misses the deeper point. The problem is not the messages but the messenger. When you stretch the meaning of words beyond credible limits and consistently overpromise and underdeliver, you undermine communication itself. It is impossible to communicate with a public that have simply stopped listening.

 

Can trust be restored? I am not holding out much hope given that this is a Prime Minister whose bluster shows no sign of abating. We have no hope of succeeding without public trust and administrative competence. Sadly, both are in short supply.

 

My other deep considerations and reflections this month have also included:

 

** The realisation that I am more scared of the second wave of Zoom quizzes than I am of the second wave of the virus.

 

** Punctuation is very important. Example (a) There's a Maypole dancer Example (b) Theresa May, pole dancer. As I say, very important.

 

** There is nothing more satisfying as being told by a website that a new password I’ve chosen is ‘Very Strong’. Nothing.

 

** The next most satisfying thing is skipping 3 pages of my daughter’s bedtime story without her noticing. Big win.

 

** Wearing a mask has stolen me of so many fun sneezes. Sneezing with a mask on is zero fun.

 

** “I’ve lost my favourite face mask” wasn’t a phrase I saw coming.

 

** Whenever I am sent a screenshot of anything, the first thing I look at is what percentage of battery life is left. You can tell a lot about a person from their remaining battery percentage. I’m never below 93%.

** When an MP goes to London by train (from Glasgow) with Covid symptoms, uses the underground multiple times, spends hours in Parliament, visits a beautician, attends mass in Church, travels back home by train having been confirmed Covid positive and then justifies all of this by stating the “virus makes you act out of character”……you have a ready-made excuse to justify any abnormal behaviour.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I am not sure you will get away with “sorry I murdered your entire family with a spoon but I was feeling a bit Covid”. Equally, it didn't make BoJo competent or The Trump likeable. But I reckon there is scope in justifying my questionable behaviour this year on having Covid since February and definitely not having a midlife crisis. Definitely.   

 

What a relief.

 

 

The Numbers

Big figures on the back of big problems in the UK. Here’s a selection that stood out amongst the spin……

 

UK unemployment hit a 3 year high, with the level of redundancies the most seen since 2009.

 

Fears grow for 1.8 million job losses as 11% of workers still on furlough comes to an end on 31 October 2020……at a total cost so far of £39 billion. Rishi’s ink was still not dry on his ‘Winter Economy Plan’ when he was forced to rethink, amend and increase financial support to replace the furlough scheme (although he won’t admit that this was due to Andy Burnham digging his heals in to protect the Greater Manchester economy). Rishi moving the goal posts to reflect greater financial support for the greater Tier 3 restrictions seems sensible…..time will tell whether it is enough though.  

Best not to mention the £2 billion lost to criminals in fraudulent furlough claims.

 

There is much speculation that Rishi will need to increase taxes soon to pay for all of the pandemic financial support and stimulus. Whilst decision won’t be made until next year, consider this……Amazon paid just £293 million in taxes on £13.7 billion of sales last year. That is a rate of 2.1% of its revenue in tax last year, despite its earnings having surged by 25%. Perhaps taxing profit making companies would be a good starting point. Just a thought.

 

Official figures show the biggest quarterly leap on record for retail sales, as the sector battles back from the coronavirus lockdown amid renewed restrictions. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 17.4% jump in volumes in the third quarter. Dare I suggest that Christmas shopping has started early?

 

On the other side of the coin, new car sales in the UK fell to their lowest point in 21 years. The 4.4% year-on-year drop in sales meant it was the weakest September for new car registrations since 1999.

 

The US economy suffered its sharpest contraction in at least 73 years because of the disruptions from Covid-19. GDP plunged at a 31.4% annualised rate, the deepest drop in output since records began in 1947. That’s the largest and most powerful economy in the world.

 

The second largest economy, China, has seen economic recovery accelerate as consumer spending picked up and great demand for factory output to meet global demand for medical equipment. Low Covid-19 infection rates have also helped the country's economy to continue its v-shaped recovery with an impressive 4.9% GDP for the quarter.

 

In the week prior to half term, 55% of secondary and 22% of primary schools sent pupils home due to Covid. As a parent, it is increasingly difficult to trust our leaders who presided over the highest excess death rate in Europe, claimed to have put a ‘protective ring’ around care homes and promised a ‘world-beating’ app by last June……and yet ask that we trust them with safe schooling.

 

The NHS Test & Trace system has contacted 750,000 people so far. At a current cost of £12 billion (and rising), that's £16,000 per person contacted. A “world beating system” it is not.

More than 900,000 people have signed a petition on the back of 322 MPs voting against feeding 1.4 million children from low income families…..literally 5 days after Marcus Rashford was awarded an OBE for his efforts with this. For perspective, a week of food vouchers for the 1.4 million children would cost the same as half a day of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme. Where do I even begin to start with this?

 

The Comedy (The Trump Award)

During the pandemic the UK has lived in a crazy world of daily Government u-turns, contradictory rules (pretty much designed to keep Wetherspoons open), a lack of humanity and sheer total madness. As I told an overseas friend recently, “unless you are living in it, then it is almost impossible to describe just how infuriatingly messed up it all is.”

 

I was then reminded that they live in North America. Enough said.

 

The Trump award was always designed to acknowledge those in the UK that have shown levels of lunacy that The Trump himself would be proud of. Consistent madness being consistently delivered.  

 

This month’s nominations for the award, in their own right, are completely idiotic and deserve recognition.

 

Take Stanley Johnson (BoJo’s father), who failed to wear a mask in a newsagents and then claimed not to have understood the rules as regards face masks as he had been on holiday for 3 weeks (what did he think the other customers where doing……robbing it?).

 

Or Jez Corbyn not being able to count to 6 and being photographed attending a dinner party for 9 people.

 

Or Margaret Ferrier. You know the one……the Scottish MP who was Covid-riddled going on tour around the UK.  

 

Or Dido Harding’s NHS Test & Trace system. Or BoJo’s handling anything of semi-importance. Or Matt Hancock. Bless him.

They are all worthy contenders……until you compare them to The Trump……and then they are not even close at all.

 

This could be the last month we get to see him as President……and he has really saved his final monthly performance to showcase his lunacy in all its glory. It is simply astonishing. Mesmerising. A thing of beauty.

 

10 days in the life of Trump.

 

Day 1

Live debate with Joe B, which turned into a shambles. The Trump mocked Joe B for (a) wearing a mask too much and (b) the size of the mask.

 

Day 2

He learns that pretty much most of his campaign staff have tested positive but he doesn’t self-isolate.

 

Day 3

The Trump attends a large social event for political party doners. Why wouldn’t you? Ah.

 

Day 4

He tests positive for Covid-19 and tells the world that “he feels great”.

 

Day 5

Still “feeling great”, The Trump is airlifted to hospital……“precautionary” obviously.

 

Day 6

The Trump gets pumped full of a cocktail of experimental drugs and then gets the Secret Service to drive him, whilst infected, around the streets of Washington to wave at a few hundred supporters. Various doctors hold press conferences giving contradictory updates on The Trump’s condition and treatment.

Day 7

The Trump receives a spray tan in his hospital room and is then airlifted back to the Whitehouse and tells American’s “not to be afraid of Covid”, releases a Hollywood movie of his return and takes to the Whitehouse balcony to salute like a returning war hero dressed as a riddled Evita (“Covita” if you will allow me).

 

Oh my goodness. It really is quite the watch. If you watch nothing else this year, watch this:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN7sliYigBE

Day 8

The Trump takes to Fox News and declares, “I'm back because I'm a perfect physical specimen.” Said the man with a BMI over 30. Wow! He then also compared himself to Churchill. He also states that the treatment he received is available to everyone, despite the fact that it would cost $100,000.

 

Day 9

The Trump tweets: “Just spoke with Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Very thankful for his friendship and support as I recovered from the China Virus. I am looking forward to working with him for many years to come, a great guy!” Clearly the drugs have had a severe impact on judgement.

 

Day 10

The Trump ridicules Joe B by tweeting: “Don’t vote for Biden, he’ll listen to the scientists”. Wow.

 

Even by The Trump’s standards, this was a world class performance in lunacy. He’s spent the last 6 months telling us Covid-19 is a hoax, refusing to wear a mask and going against all scientific advice. There is only The Trump that can be hospitalised by a hoax.

 

We are probably witnessing the last few days of the first and last ‘non-politician’ to ever hold the Presidency. We’ll never see the likes of him again……thankfully.   

 

Something tells me there will be a sting in the tail….one final assault…….a parting gift. He simply isn’t the type to go quietly is he.

 

I’m gonna miss you, you crazy orange big guy.

 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

 

And Finally……

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.”

 

(Albert Einstein)

The Month That Was……September 2020

Just when you think you know which way is up, it all gets shaken about again. It’s like we’re living in a snow globe being played with by a wired toddler.

 

One of the biggest challenges for businesses and on a personal level over the last few months (which appears to be coming to a head now) is the inability to make any concrete long term plans. Or medium term plans. Or any plan that can remain unchanged for more than a week. Such is the speed of the change in Government rules……or is that guidance……or is that law?

 

In the end it will come down to how far the Government is prepared to go to contain the virus. How much economic pain, disruption and damage to society and the wider health and wellbeing of individuals is worth the lives at risk? That is the horrible dilemma being faced and the really tough calls are still to come.

 

Someone asked me “is this stop-start phase we’re currently in better or worse than when we were in total lockdown?” I’m still struggling to answer that after a week.

 

Don’t get me wrong, total lockdown was completely brutal and not something I want to go back to any time soon. But at least you sort of knew where you stood and what you could or couldn't do. Right now, the rules change literally on a daily basis and it means you keep trying to live life, for it to then get put back on pause.

 

It is the lack of clarity that creates chaos and frustration, which are poisonous emotions for anybody.

For me, I think the answer is to get into a box full of straw in the shed until March and dream about which Blue Peter presenter from the 80’s will wake me from hibernation.

 

Lockdown II promises to be a very miserable sequel.

 

My own lack of clarity to solve my mid-life crisis ‘riddle’ has also moved to chaos and frustration.

 

I actually thought I was winning……I genuinely did. By journaling my achievements each month I was proving emphatically that there was no need to have a psychological crisis when I was accomplishing so much in mid-life……and September 2020 was no different.

 

** I learnt there is only one letter that doesn’t appear in any US State name (it’s ‘Q’).

 

** I found out that a female ferret will die if it goes into heat and cannot find a mate (I presume this is also applicable to Love Island contestants).

 

** There aren’t actually “57 varieties” of Heinz ketchup. Fact.

 

** Nobody discusses how ‘You’ve Been Framed’ hasn’t given a damn about inflation in over three decades. £250.00 for each video clip in 1990 should now be worth £572.51……yet it still only pays £250.00 and it stinks.  

 

** “I slept like a log”. When was the last time you saw a sleeping log? Might as well say “I slept like a paving slab”. And whilst we’re here……“slept like a baby” is the worst description for sleeping ever. What, you wet your pants and then woke up four times during the night calling for your mummy? This needs a rethink as it is making us look stupid.

 

** It is impossible to feel anything other than ‘full on dramatic’ when putting your face mask on before entering the bank……especially if you have just jumped out of the back of a blue transit.

 

** I successfully argued that Lionel Richie’s song ‘Dancing on The Ceiling’ is completely flawed from a scientific stand point due to the gravitational pull making it impossible to dance on any ceiling. Absurd. This is clearly the sole reason that it did not reach Number 1 (it peaked at 7 in July 1986).

But then it all changed. It literally hit me like a bolt of lightning from nowhere. It was the perfect 24 hour storm of Chris Witty scaring the life out of me, BoJo responding (like only he can) by addressing the nation to tell us that finishing our Babycham by 10:00pm will defeat the virus and then Floella Benjamin having a birthday……she was 71. SEVENTY ONE! What happened to that 30 year old knocking Play School out of the park in the 80’s?

 

I will never forget where I was or what I was doing for that seminal moment when I found out Floella’s age (for clarity, I was working from home for the 158^th day in a row).

 

To accept Floella being 71 meant that I had to accept I was mid-life. She tipped me over. I couldn’t stop it. It was one more than I could take.

 

Within 24 hours I had hit Amazon and ordered 7 juggling balls, a map reading compass (a top quality one of course - Silva Expedition 4 with magnifier, millimetre scales and silicon rubber feet for precision map work) and a Draper 3000 3 in 1 Garden Vacuum, Leaf Blower and Shredder Mulcher.

 

(this is a true story – ask my wife!)

 

People are panic buying again……and I panicked. I feel bad and part of the problem but I just couldn’t see a way through October 2020 without these three essentials. Who could?

 

A mid-life crisis back on the agenda? Time will tell. Let’s hope Floella caused a blip rather than a theme.

 

 

The Numbers

The volume of numbers we are hit with daily is mesmerizing……it is as though any worthy news story is void if it doesn’t have a wealth of numbers to back it up. Whether it is economic, health, PPE, rule of 6, Brexit, schools, et al, everything we consume is a statistic.    

 

At face value it can be overwhelming but I’m hopeful the following will give you a flavour from this month from the UK.

 

More than 100 million meals were consumed under the Eat Out to Help Out discount scheme at a cost to the taxpayer of £522 million. 84,700 restaurants in the programme had lodged 130,000 claims. Call me controversial, but as covid and obesity is a known killer combination this is looking more and more like a euthanasia project. It lacked all logic.

 

On the back of the snaking queues out of Wagamama and the cheap eats, inflation in the UK fell to 0.2% and brought the prospect of deflation back into conversation (well it did for ‘interesting’ people like me).  

 

The Bank of England has warned that the rising rate of coronavirus infections and a lack of clarity over the UK's future trade relationship with the EU could threaten the economic recovery. No kidding. Despite a stronger than expected recovery in the last few months, the economy is still about 7% smaller than at the end of 2019.

 

The Government confirmed that the furlough scheme is to finish at the end of October. The take-up has been significant, with 9.6 million workers furloughed by 1.2 million employers since March. The total cost to the Government is likely to hit £60 billion in total.

 

Up to £3.5 billion of the Government furlough payments may have been claimed fraudulently or paid out in error. HM Revenue and Customs told MPs on the Public Accounts Committee it estimates that 5-10% of furlough cash has been wrongly awarded. Brilliant.

 

The decision to scrap the Autumn Budget came as no surprise and instead we were given the ‘Winter Economy Plan’. What a sexy title. The thrust of the Chancellor’s message is that the country needs to find a sustainable way to live with the virus. He launched the Job Support Scheme to run for 6 months that will see employees who work for at least 33% of their hours being topped up for their remaining hours not worked (Government 33% and Employer 33%). He also cancelled the planned increase of VAT from 5% to 20%, which was due to come into effect in January. Instead, the lower rate of 5% will remain until 31 March 2021.

 

Which all leads us nicely on to……UK borrowing soared as the cost of Covid mounts up. The UK Government borrowed £35.9 billion for the month. The figure (the difference between spending and tax income) was £30.5 billion more than it borrowed in the same month last year. Ouch.

 

The UK unemployment rate has risen to its highest level for 2 years……4.1%. I fear there is worse to come.

 

The NHS Track & Trace app was launched at a cost of £11.8 million. I really don’t get people moaning about not wanting to give the app access to their information……but seem perfectly happy to have Facebook on their phones with all their personal information (and pointless photos of their breakfast).

 

Fewer than 50% of all coronavirus fines handed out in England and Wales since the end of March have been paid so far. Of the 19,171 fines handed out by police for breaching coronavirus restrictions, just 8,930 were paid.

 

In a move described by some commentators as ‘savage’, National Savings & Investments (NS&I) has slashed interest rates across its product range – some as low as 0.01%. Putting money under the mattress nearly yields just as much.

 

A 10:00pm curfew was imposed for pubs, bars and restaurants. Except if your bar is in Parliament as it decided that its bars are ‘workplace canteens‘ so were exempt from the 10:00pm curfew, tracing and mask wearing rules (this was changed after a week when it was reported in the press). Shameful.

 

 

The Comedy (The Trump Award)

It’s been a strange old month for The Trump. When you look back over his 4 years of Presidency, he has shown nothing but admirable consistency in stupidness, argued that his ineptitude is in fact ‘brilliance’ that is misunderstood, lied, shown incredible levels of idiocy, lied some more and left us bemused. Month in, month out.

 

But not in September. There has been a clear shift in focus from his campaign team that the best way to get The Trump re-elected is to stop him being The Trump in public as much as possible and hope that American’s have a short memory. An interesting strategy and it might just work.

 

The stupid have continued to walk amongst us during September……and we are now seeing new consistent performers that have no doubt been inspired by The Trump.

 

Recognition #1: The Trump

Whilst the month lacked his usual high levels of idiocy, recognition should still be given. The Trump will be remembered this month for just three things.

 

Firstly, he held a rally in which there were thousands of people not socially distancing or wearing a mask. Not for the first time.

 

Secondly, the New York Times released leaked documents showing The Trump paying only $750 in tax the year he was elected President. His response……“it’s fake news”. That was it. No counter evidence, denial or argument……just a lot of shouting “fake news”.

 

Thirdly, he turned pretty much every speech, conversation and interview in to “we will have a vaccine within weeks”. This will be his election campaign narrative, regardless of whether there is a vaccine or not. It’s effectively the new ‘border wall with Mexico’ that he promised and didn’t deliver last time.

 

Bizarrely, so unconvinced by the potential success of a vaccine, The Trump has paid hundreds of millions for trials to be held in other countries ‘just in case’.  

 

Not a vintage month by The Trump but still plenty that he should be recognised for.

 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 8.5 / 10

 

Recognition #2: Alok Sharma

At a time when the UK is under so many rules for different areas that has caused much confusion, Alok Sharma (the Business Secretary) was asked by Rachel Burden on BBC 5 Live “how many different households can meet in a pub in Bolton?”

 

He gave guidance on other areas, told people to check on the Government website and said how good a job the Government was doing at supporting business. For 5 minutes she repeatedly requested that he answer the question. And then he did……

 

“Just like 13 million other people under restriction, only one household in Bolton can go to the pub as no mixing of households is permitted.”

 

The correct answer was ‘nobody’ in Bolton can go to the pub as they are all closed and have been for 3 weeks due to the spike in infections. That’s 3 weeks that businesses have been closed and the Business Secretary did not know this. But then again, why would he as it’s outside of London.

 

Shameful.

 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 7.5 / 10

Recognition #3: Michael Gove

Michael Gove is that kid who always gets picked last for a kickabout but then tries harder than most to make up for his lack of ability. That’s why he has been on so many cabinets. Committed and loyal. He’s also useless and socially awkward and doesn’t get wheeled out in front of the cameras too often. But when he does……

 

Since July the message has been to go back to work, buy a coffee on the way and a pint on the way home. In fact, the Government was running a paid for campaign until the start of September to get people back to offices. And then the message changed overnight.

 

Enter Michael Gove from stage right for his monthly wheel out to do the TV and Radio interview rounds to encourage people to now work from home.   

 

When asked if this was a ‘complete about turn’ on BBC Breakfast, Michael Gove answered “No – it’s a shift in emphasis”.

 

And the difference is?

 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 8.0 / 10

 

Recognition #4: BoJo

In a similar manner to The Trump, BoJo has had very limited ‘live’ exposure in the media. Clearly his advisers don’t trust him, he is a very poor public speaker and he drops far too many clangers.  

 

So much so that his address to the nation was pre-recorded. What I found fascinating is that despite the script and pre-recording, this final version was deemed to be the best version of BoJo. It was dreadful. It lacked clarity, contained way too much stumbling and Boris’isms, the vast content masked the simple messages and it left a feeling of ‘what was the point’. To be a good leader, you must be a good communicator. BoJo is neither.

 

He informed us that “There is nothing more frustrating for the vast majority, the law-abiding majority, that do comply than the sight of a few brazenly defying the rules."

 

 I couldn’t agree more. Like driving to Durham with COVID symptoms for a cross-country eye test? Or not condemning your father for non-essential travel to Greece. Come on BoJo, we’re not thick.

 

 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 8.5 / 10

The Winner

After months in tireless pursuit of the award, this month’s winner is Matt Hancock.

 

For our favourite carpet salesman to scale the heights of The Trump, he must show evidence of multiple examples that mount up to serious lunacy. His ground paid off and all of the evidence of his incompetence, stupidity and clear lunacy came to a lovely peak in September.

 

Act 1:

Helen Whately MP said that it would be “too easy” to just copy what other countries are doing in response to Covid. Within minutes Matt Hancock said they’d introduced the 10:00pm curfew because it had been done in other countries. Priceless.

 

Act 2:

Matt Hancock took to TV and Radio to lecture young people not to "kill your gran" by spreading the virus. This was literally the campaign slogan in some parts. This is the same Matt Hancock blamed for thousands of grans dying in care homes after he discharged untested hospital patients into them.

 

Act 3:

On another round of media Matt Hancock’s overarching message was to confirm that if there was another national lockdown then the public will only have themselves to blame for not following the rules. Let’s be fair, we did follow your rules when we understood them. You sent us back to work on public transport, gave financial incentives to go to pubs / restaurants, went back to gyms to avoid obesity and sent our kids to school / university. Now look what happens when we followed your rules.

 

Act 4:

He told us that our track and trace system would be “world beating” (it’s not), “anyone who wants a test should be able to have a test” (you can’t) and “if in doubt get a test” (there is not enough capacity). We were also advised that results would be back within 24 hours (less than 50% are).

 

After 6 months of planning, testing demand is still outstripping supply.

 

Forever and a day, the third week back to school for children sees a rise in colds, coughs, etc. It’s always been and always will. Lots of children together sharing bugs. Putting lots of people in confined spaces together was always going to lead to a rise in Covid symptoms. The rise in the need for tests was entirely predictable. What did we do? Nothing.

 

You cannot stop a second wave if you cannot test for one.

 

Act 5:

Imagine a country where a particular politician’s think tank calls for the abolition of a major public health body, it then gets broken up during a pandemic, its replacement is established in just a few days and the particular politician’s wife (with no public health experience), is appointed to run it. That would be crazy……but that’s us that is.

 

Dido Harding encapsulates all that is wrong. Failed as boss of TalkTalk and head of track and trace (it launched 3 months late), yet was promoted to oversee England’s new public health institute with no experience or expertise.

 

It is clear that in the UK there is no limit to how high you can fail if you’re friends with the right people. She is married to Tory MP John Penrose and a close friend of David Cameron.

 

And you can guess who appointed her……her close friend Matt Hancock. You would imagine that this will be of great interest to BoJo’s Anti-Corruption Champion who is……(checks notes)……Dido Harding’s husband.

 

The most powerful official involved in the fight against coronavirus is unelected and inexperienced. Brilliant.

 

If you had told me 6 months ago that we would be in the same place 6 months later because Matt Hancock paid Deloitte and Serco millions for a testing and tracing system that doesn’t work, headed by one of their mates, I’d probably be like……sounds about right!

 

Classic evidence of traits normally reserved for The Trump. Matt Hancock is a clear and worthy winner this month.

 

I fear history will not be kind to Matt Hancock.

 

Trump Lunacy Rating: 10 / 10

 

 

And Finally……

"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough."

 

(Albert Einstein)