If October disturbed me (greatly),
then November made me laugh……a lot. Not in a good way though. Definitely not in
a good way. MP’s have turned our political system in to something that
resembles a pack of hungry drunk dogs scrambling around on ice trying to get a
bone dressed in poorly fitting pinstriped suits.
And that ladies and gentlemen is
Brexit.
There really is very little else
aside from Brexit that is having such an impact on our economy, investment
markets, private sector business performance, employment, consumer confidence,
etc., etc., so on and so on. Hence the reason so much of our media / news
platforms are obsessed with it.
So, just where are we up to……
Brexit (Part 1)
Theresa May and advisers created 500 +
pages of legal jargon to form the proposed Brexit agreement terms with the EU.
She then took this draft to her own cabinet, who were severely divided on the proposal and there were significant resignations on the back of it.
Firstly, Esther McVey resigned as work and pensions
secretary. “It will be no good trying to pretend that this deal honors the
result of the referendum when it is obvious to everyone it doesn’t.”
Secondly, Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary
(after 6 minutes in the role). "I cannot in good conscience support the
terms proposed for our deal with the EU. I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed
deal with the promises we made to the country".
In case you missed it, let's get this right……Dominic
Raab who was responsible for negotiating the draft agreement with the EU has
resigned because he can't support an agreement he helped negotiate. Brilliant.
You really couldn't make it up could you?
What a complete and utter shambles and waste of time! This Brexit show just
keeps getting better and better. The entertainment is absorbing. I’m convinced
there’ll be a movie made about this……Dame Judy as the PM is a given.
Such has been the high volume of
appointment / resignation turnover, it’s got to the stage now that I don’t know
who is in the cabinet any more until they resign. Are the best people in the
right position at the top end of politics……far from it.
The
best summary of the situation I read on the proposed EU agreement was this……
I
am trying to sell a car to Theresa May priced at £6,000 but she said the deal
was rubbish. After 20 months of negotiation I now accept £7,000 for the car, retain
ownership of it and agree that she can’t drive it without my permission……and it
was only months ago she said she’d rather walk than buy a car from me!
Funny……if
it wasn’t so close to home.
Bizarrely, this was the easy bit. Theresa May took the
draft agreement to Brussels and the EU leaders approved the proposal on the
UK's withdrawal and future relations.
Easy? After 20 months of negotiations, the 27 leaders of
27 countries gave the deal their blessing after less than an hour's discussion.
That’s just 60 minutes. X-Factor lasts longer……and they simply debate who needs
to leave a show that we will have forgotten about by Easter.
Which suggests that the UK has given in to the majority
of EU demands or they are just not taking it seriously. My money is on the
former.
The EU were overjoyed with the draft proposal as it paved
the way for an “orderly withdrawal”……assuming it gets through UK Parliament
(the ‘meaningful vote’). And that is where the problem is and what will
dominate your news media platform of choice for December.
Trying to get MPs to agree on this is difficult……when so
few want to be guilty by association. It’s a huge conflict of interest for MPs
who need to decide what is right for Brexit against that of their own political
career.
Prediction?
Expect Theresa May to go on a tour to every far flung
corner of the UK to explain to all that this is absolutely the best that can be
negotiated and far better than no deal. She will be hoping that constituencies
then put pressure on MP’s to agree to the deal.
She will fail……there seems a very evident realisation that
MPs will reject the deal when given their meaningful vote on it.
But MPs would then stare into the
abyss, recognise that a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster, another referendum
too risky and would then approve the deal (perhaps slightly modified) when
brought back to them a second time.
This is the ‘TARP model’.
For those that have a life and are
not obsessed with this……TARP was the US scheme to bail out bust banks after the
crash in 2008. It was initially rejected by Congress, which caused the stock
market to collapse. At that point senators and members of the House of
Representatives panicked and voted through a modified version of the scheme.
What Theresa May, her supporters and chief whip are
banking on (see what I did there – you’re welcome) is that as and when MPs
reject her Brexit plan, the stock market and sterling (in particular) will tank.
This will then scare MPs and they would then be persuaded to recant and back
May's deal. It is all very plausible. It is also very dangerous.
Brexit was supposed to be all about
taking back control……forever. It would be profoundly unhealthy for confidence
in our democracy if what many see as a degraded Brexit was adopted merely
because our MPs panicked in the face of a market rout.
We shall see.
Elsewhere
# 1 - Rank Bank
The long-awaited report by Britain’s
Information Commissioner’s Office, which has been investigating the misuse of
personal data by political campaigns, said an insurance company owned by Arron
Banks, broke British law when it used customer data to aid the Brexit effort.
Banks, sometimes described as the ‘godfather of
Brexit,’ was the main backer of Britain’s campaign to leave the European Union,
According to the commissioner’s office, his company,
Eldon Insurance, shared private email addresses to be sent campaign messages on
behalf of Leave.EU (a pro-Brexit group), months before the 2016 referendum on
Britain’s membership in the European Union.
The finding also adds to legal and political
scrutiny of Mr. Banks, who was the single largest donor to the Brexit campaign.
His dealings with the Russian ambassador ahead of the referendum have
separately raised questions about whether the Kremlin sought to reward
important backers of Britain’s exit from the European Union and prompted UK
election officials last week to ask for a police investigation.
‘Ask’ for a police investigation? His actions
are illegal on every level……yet we are going to ‘ask’ for a police
investigation. I naively assumed that it would have been mandatory!
And now for the farcical bit……Banks’s insurance
company and the Leave.EU campaign are facing total fines of £135,000. Oh, that
will teach them.
Elsewhere
# 2 - Trump Flump
The mid-term elections are a pretty big deal in
the US. It is in effect a vote of confidence (or not) on the first two years of
The Trump’s rule……and the results were not good for him.
Whilst Donald Trump’s Republican Party retained
the Senate, the Democratic opposition won a majority in the House of
Representatives. This is not a big deal……it is a HUGE deal.
Firstly, The Trump will struggle to get
anything passed in the House of Representatives now that the opposition will
hold the power. Secondly (and most importantly), the House of Representatives now
holds the power to launch investigations into The Trump’s ‘behaviour’ which
could ultimately lead to impeachment.
Given the scandals involving Russia, tax
avoidance, extra marital affairs, et al, there is plenty to concern The Trump.
An abundance in fact.
The past two years of The Trump’s presidency
have been fascinating……the loss of the House of Representatives will make the
next two years truly compelling.
November’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Arron
Banks
No publicity is bad publicity……so the saying
goes. The £135,000 seems a snip to get the Leave Campaign even more column
inches.
Why does democracy bring out the worst in so
many?
November’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Donald
Trump (again).
Having lost the power in the House of
Representatives to the Democratic Party, The Trump’s tweet on the night of the
results……“Tremendous success tonight”.
Baffling. Very baffling.
November’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Ivanka
Trump (new entry)
In 2016, Donald Trump accused Hillary Clinton
of putting the US "in danger" over her use of a private email account
while she was Secretary of State. He said it was “bigger than Watergate"
and he used it as part of a huge campaign to discredit her during the
Presidential election run in. And it worked.
Fast forward to 2018 and The Trump’s daughter,
Ivanka Trump, has used a personal email account to send hundreds of messages
discussing official White House business in her role as senior adviser to the
President.
One can only assume that The Trump sees this as
just as big an issue as 2016. We shall see. Breath not being held.
And Finally……
Just when you thought our Government had
exhausted all the ways to embarrass and demean Britain......they find another
one. They're bringing out a Brexit 50p coin. Brilliant. It will be due out in
one year's time……correction two year's time……nope 5 five year's time... Hang
on, my mistake it's a Euro.
Regardless, it will take a lot of Brexit 50p
coins to pay the Brexit bills.
