Monday 30 July 2018

The Month That Was……July 2018


July will probably be remembered by some for the World Cup, when getting beat three times is considered a ‘success’ by England (can you imagine Alex Ferguson or the All Blacks considering that a ‘success’).
 
The World Cup was like a fleeting summer romance, where you promised yourself you wouldn’t catch feelings......but then you did and now you have to fly back Ryanair in a middle seat alone.
 
It will also be remembered for the heat wave that engulfed the UK. You know it’s definitely OK to call it a ‘heat wave’ when the staff in M&S are down to only 2 layers of cardigans.
 
So how else will July 2018 be remembered?
 

Chequers Checkmate
Theresa May took her entire cabinet off to her country residence to seek agreement on a UK vision for post-Brexit relations. After 12 hours, an agreement was reached in a White Paper to take negotiations forward.
 
She said the deal agreed by the cabinet after their "productive discussions" at Chequers would "honour the result of the referendum" and allow the UK to "take back control of our borders, our law and our money".
 
All good then? Ah……no.
 
Boris Johnson (the Foreign Secretary – considered the third most powerful seat) launched a scathing attack on Theresa May's Brexit strategy, saying the "dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt". He promptly resigned from the cabinet.
 
His resignation came hours after Brexit Secretary David Davis quit the cabinet also. He stated that he thought the UK was giving away "too much, too easily" and he had made compromises since taking on the role……but this was "one compromise too far".
 
There you have it……those in charge to lead our great kingdom look far from united. If we can’t agree on what to negotiate, how do we then negotiate?
 
Just a thought.
 

Winners / Losers In May’s Brexit White Paper
If you are one of the thousands of firms and millions of jobs that rely on the £423 billion annual trade in goods between Britain and the EU, the White Paper should be viewed positively.
 
Yes, it is still far from clear if the EU will even go part of the way to accepting the Government's offer of a "common rule book" on how goods trade. But the White Paper on UK-EU relations has at least put that goods relationship at the heart of attempts to secure a future trade deal.
 
Yet when it comes to the UK's £1.4 trillion services sector (which makes up 80% of the economy), it is a very different matter. Here the Government has called for "regulatory flexibility" out of the EU services single market and admitted that "this means that the UK and the EU will not have current levels of access to each other's markets". In other words, there are costs attached.
 
That has brought strong words of protest from the financial services sector, and more specifically the City, which relies on friction-free access to the EU for much of its business.
 
The UK (read Theresa May) appears to want a close deal on goods and is willing to sacrifice services to get it.
 

The Trump Visits UK
The UK ‘welcomed’ Donald Trump in a scaled down visit that was never going to gain royal approval and the pomp and ceremony that President Obama enjoyed. Instead, he took centre stage right in the middle of the Brexit White Paper fallout.
 
Never one to hold back an opinion, Trump said the Brexit White Paper would "probably kill" any trade deal with the US. Yet a few hours later having met the Prime Minister he said a US-UK trade deal "will absolutely be possible”.
 
Confused? You should be. Trump talking in riddles is the norm.
 
To be fair, his visit will probably be remembered more for the protests than anything constructive he had to say……which is the legacy of his stint to date.
 

July’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – Boris Johnson
No further questions your honour.
 

July’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Nissan
Nissan has admitted falsifying emissions tests in Japan. Nissan stated it had uncovered falsified data from car exhaust emissions tests at most of its Japanese factories. And by ‘most’, let’s be clear……it was going on at all of Nissan's factories in Japan, bar one.
 
Hardly a one-off accident or down to a few rotten apples……this is large scale corruption. The next time you take a journey, just consider how this could impact the UK when you see the volume of Nissan’s on the road. Frightening stuff.
 

July’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Banks / PPI
Just when you thought that the endless PPI calls, texts and adverts were nearer an end……think again.
 
Banks could have to pay out billions more in PPI claims following a court ruling in Manchester. This will lead to people who were not mis-sold PPI policies being able to claim billions of pounds in compensation for commission payments refunded for a legitimately sold policy. Under existing guidelines, consumers who were sold their policies legitimately may still be entitled to claim money back if the commission is deemed excessive.
 
Around 1.2 million complaints have proved successful under this (the Plevin rule), out of the total of 13 million PPI pay-out.
 
So far banks and insurance companies have had to pay out a total of £30 billion to compensate consumers.
 
Just remember……when you don’t get the interest rate you want on your savings / mortgage or your car insurance renewal premium goes up……you know why.
 


And Finally……
During his visit to the UK, Trump visited the Turnberry golf resort in Scotland which he owns. Yet the US Government paid around £52,000 for housing and accommodations for staffers of President Trump. Is that not like inviting some friends over for dinner to your house and then presenting them with a bill at the end?
 
Nothing like a good old-fashioned conflict of interest to surround Donald Trump!
 
 
 

Tuesday 3 July 2018

The Month That Was……June 2018


A month that saw the World Cup thrust upon us pretty much 24 hours a day…..you would be forgiven for missing all the political and economic shenanigans that have been going on!

So just how will June 2018 be remembered?

   
Trade Wars
Not content with picking a fight with China, Trump flexed his muscles with the EU. The steel tariffs that caused a stir with China are now being imposed on EU steel imports also.
 
As a counter attack, the EU has issued a 10-page list of tariffs on US goods ranging from Harley-Davidson motorcycles to bourbon.
 
It all seems a little petty at face value (who’d have thought it with Trump involved!) and a little tit-for-tat but it certainly has an unnerving feel and investment markets certainly get spooked by it.
 
When all the political pouting and posturing is done, hopefully an amicable middle ground can be found for all countries.  


 
Interest Rates
For what feels like the 300th month running, the debate about when interest rates will rise grew louder. 

Whilst the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold, there was a ‘firm signal’ that an August rate rise is likely.
 
In a decisive move, the Bank’s chief economist, Andrew Haldane, joined two other members of the Monetary Policy Committee who voted for an immediate rate rise to 0.75%. The nine-member MPC was split 6-3, with the Governor of the Bank, Mark Carney, leading the group who voted to hold interest rates at 0.5%.
 
The last time three people ‘dissented’ from the overall view, in June 2017, interest rates rose the following November.
 
We shall see……it could all be ‘much ado about nothing’ if economic results are weaker than forecast.
 

Petrol
Petrol prices rose by 6p a litre in May - the biggest monthly increase since the RAC began tracking prices 18 years ago.
 
Average petrol prices hit 129.4p a litre, while average diesel prices also rose by 6p to 132.3p a litre.
 
Why? A combination of higher crude oil prices and a weaker pound was to blame for the increases. Oil prices broke through the $80-a-barrel price, which is a three year high.
 
As well as the higher global market price of crude oil, the pound's current weakness against the US dollar also makes petrol more expensive as oil is traded in dollars. And yes……you can blame Brexit for that!
 

Brexit
Theresa May has been warned that time is running out to secure a Brexit deal as she faced the other 27 EU leaders at a summit in Brussels.
 
The PM briefed all her counterparts for the last time before October, when both sides hope a deal will be done on the UK's March 2019 departure. Irish leader Leo Varadkar said the lack of progress was "disappointing". He said he expected fellow leaders to send a "strong message" to Mrs May that talks had to "intensify".
 
No kidding! We haven’t managed to negotiate anything of any significance as yet and we leave in March. That really is quite an achievement.
 
The PM has called her cabinet together for what has been billed as a ‘make or break’ meeting at Chequers on 6 July to agree the UK's blueprint for its future relations with the EU. Make or break? It might just break my patience with the dithering!
 
Key dates:
 
18 October, 2018
EU summit during which both sides hope to agree an outline of future relations between the UK parliament and the EU.
 
31 October, 2018
The EU’s chief negotiator has said negotiations must be complete before the end of October to give the 27 EU countries time to sign off the deal. MPs in the UK Parliament will also get to vote on the final deal.
 
 
House Price Falls
UK house prices saw the biggest monthly fall for nearly eight years (according to the Halifax), as demand for homes weakened.
 
Housing demand had softened in the early months of this year, with both mortgage approvals and completed home sales edging down. On an annual basis, price growth has now slowed to 2.2%.
 
There is a double whammy to the news. Firstly, we are a nation of homeowners that needs a healthy property market (we have so much wealth tied up). Secondly, consumer spending is linked to financial confidence and there is a direct correlation with confidence and house prices.
 
First-time buyers might just be getting a little breathing space though, which is never a bad thing!
 

June’s Biggest Loser……Option 1 – UK Government (again!)
Parliament got very excited (and all news and media outlets to be fair) with debating and voting on splitting hairs on what is and isn’t acceptable in negotiations with the EU.
 
To be honest, I don’t truly believe that MP’s understood what they were voting on and they were given strict instructions from party politics on which way to vote. Forget your constituency opinion, vote as you are told in other words. Democracy at its best!
 
For those that actually want to understand how pointless the vote was, here goes……
 
MPs were deciding whether the UK should stay part of the European Economic Area after it leaves the EU - a similar arrangement to non-EU countries Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
 
Like EU members, these countries are part of the EU single market - in return they are obliged to make a financial contribution and accept the majority of EU laws. The free movement of people also applies in the zone as it does in the EU.
 
Supporters of the EEA argue it would give the UK the closest possible relationship with the EU without actually being a member, as it would offer full access to the single market.
 
After the House of Lords altered the Government's EU Withdrawal Bill in favour of EEA membership, the House of Commons agreed to change it back on Wednesday evening.
 
Which begs the question……what was the point of a week of pointless political headlines!
 
 

June’s Biggest Loser……Option 2 – Royal Bank of Scotland (again!)
The Government has incurred a loss of £2.1bn after selling another tranche of shares in Royal Bank of Scotland.
 
The shares were sold at 271p each, almost half the 502p a share paid in the Government's bailout of RBS a decade ago when it rescued the bank at the height of the financial crisis. The Taxpayer holding in RBS will fall to 62.4% from 70.1% due to the sale.
 
The return was “based on the reality of the situation that RBS is now in", said Treasury Economic Secretary John Glen.
 
What a load of tosh. The Government has proved a lousy investor and the rescue has cost the taxpayer far more than just financial terms. Look at the state of some of our public services 10 years on as a result of propping up the mess created by corporate greed. The Government should not be in the business of owning banks.
 
That is the reality of the situation.  
 
Arghhhhhhh!
 
 

June’s Biggest Loser……Option 3 – Beer Shortage
Supplies of meat, chicken and beer are facing disruption by an industry-wide shortage of carbon dioxide.
 
At least five CO2 producers in northern Europe are offline for maintenance, with only one big CO2 producer in action in the UK
 
Hot weather + world cup + CO2 shortage = a shortage of beer!
 
First world problems!
 
 
And Finally……
Food giant Heinz is set to ditch the name of its famous Salad Cream for the first time in 104 years by changing it to ‘Sandwich Cream’. The maker claims that as only 14% of buyers actually used the sauce on salads, the name no longer reflects its modern purpose.
 
Nice one millennials.